Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Aggravation of chronic stress effects on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory in LPA₁ receptor knockout mice.

BACKGROUND The lysophosphatidic acid LPA₁ receptor regulates plasticity and neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus. Here, we studied whether absence of the LPA₁ receptor modulated the detrimental effects of chronic stress on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Male LPA₁-null (NULL) and wild-type (WT) mice were assigned to control or chronic stress conditions (21 days of restraint, 3 h/day). Immunohistochemistry for bromodeoxyuridine and endogenous markers was performed to examine hippocampal cell proliferation, survival, number and maturation of young neurons, hippocampal structure and apoptosis in the hippocampus. Corticosterone levels were measured in another a separate cohort of mice. Finally, the hole-board test assessed spatial reference and working memory. Under control conditions, NULL mice showed reduced cell proliferation, a defective population of young neurons, reduced hippocampal volume and moderate spatial memory deficits. However, the primary result is that chronic stress impaired hippocampal neurogenesis in NULLs more severely than in WT mice in terms of cell proliferation; apoptosis; the number and maturation of young neurons; and both the volume and neuronal density in the granular zone. Only stressed NULLs presented hypocortisolemia. Moreover, a dramatic deficit in spatial reference memory consolidation was observed in chronically stressed NULL mice, which was in contrast to the minor effect observed in stressed WT mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results reveal that the absence of the LPA₁ receptor aggravates the chronic stress-induced impairment to hippocampal neurogenesis and its dependent functions. Thus, modulation of the LPA₁ receptor pathway may be of interest with respect to the treatment of stress-induced hippocampal pathology.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Spatial learning by rats across visually disconnected environments

Experiments were designed to examine some properties of spatial representations in rats. Adult subjects were trained to escape through a hole at a fixed position in a large circular arena (see Schenk 1989). The experiments were conducted in the dark, with a limited number of controlled visual light cues in order to assess the minimal cue requirement for place learning. Three identical light cues (shape, height and distance from the table) were used. Depending on the condition, they were either permanently on, or alternatively on or off, depending on the position of the rat in the field. Two questions were asked: a) how many identical visual cues were necessary for spatial discrimination in the dark, and b) could rats integrate the relative positions of separate cues, under conditions in which the rat was never allowed to perceive all three cues simultaneously. The results suggest that rats are able to achieve a place discrimination task even if the three cues necessary for efficient orientation can never be seen simultaneously. A dissociation between the discrimination of the spatial position of the goal and the capacity to reach it by a direct path suggests that a reduced number of cues might require prolonged locomotion to allow an accurate orientation in the environment.

Kinematics and dynamic complexity of postural transitions in frail elderly subjects.

The aim of this study was to propose a methodology allowing a detailed characterization of body sit-to-stand/stand-to-sit postural transition. Parameters characterizing the kinematics of the trunk movement during sit-to-stand (Si-St) postural transition were calculated using one initial sensor system fixed on the trunk and a data logger. Dynamic complexity of these postural transitions was estimated by fractal dimension of acceleration-angular velocity plot. We concluded that this method provides a simple and accurate tool for monitoring frail elderly and to objectively evaluate the efficacy of a rehabilitation program.

Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance in the city of Posadas, northeastern Argentina: variations at different spatial scales

The distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis is heterogeneous with a pattern of high abundance areas (HAAs) embedded in a matrix of low abundance areas (LAAs). The objective of this study was to describe the variability in the abundance of Lu. longipalpis at two different spatial levels and to analyse the relationship between the abundance and multiple environmental variables. Of the environmental variables analysed in each household, the condition that best explained the differences in vector abundance between HAA-LAA was the variable "land_grass", with greater average values in the peridomestic environments within the LAA, and the variables "#sp tree", "#pots" and "dist_water" that were higher in the HAA. Of the environmental variables analysed in the patches, the variable "unpaved_streets" was higher in the LAAs and the variable "prop_inf_dogs" was higher in the HAAs. An understanding of the main environmental variables that influence the vector distribution could contribute to the development of strategies for the prevention and control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). This is the first work in which environmental variables are analysed at the micro-scale in urban areas at the southern edge of the current range of Lu. longipalpis. Our results represent a significant contribution to the understanding of the abundance of the vector in the peridomestic habitats of the region.

Les enjeux spatiaux et sociaux d'une dynamique interethnique en transition dans les quartiers de centre-ville. La construction des diverses formes de représentation dans la manière de définir un quartier de Nice.

Résumé Cette thèse de doctorat se fixe comme objectif général de définir la spécificité d'un espace urbain situé en centre-ville à travers sa dynamique sociale et interethnique. Il s'agit de relever les différentes formes et manifestations ethniques, mais également de comprendre la manière dont est vécue cette socialité, tout en tenant compte du contexte urbain dans lequel elles se situent. La particularité de ce travail est le fait de proposer une démarche alliant deux disciplines à savoir la géographie et la sociologie, dans le but de proposer une recherche transdisciplinaire, avec comme conséquence la mise en oeuvre d'une démarche commune nourrie des deux disciplines. Les quartiers ethniques situés en centre-ville ne se présentent pas comme des espaces figés, puisque des changements fréquents sont observés aussi bien au niveau de leur population que de l'affectation des locaux commerciaux et des logements. Ils semblent davantage se caractériser comme des « espaces à l'avenir indéterminé » dans le sens où leur avenir aussi bien au niveau de leur structure urbaine que de leurs rapports sociaux ne peut être prévisible et qu'ils sont par ailleurs susceptibles d'être soumis à de nombreux changements, d'où l'idée également d' « espaces en mutations ». Pour aborder ces thématiques de recherche, nous avons opté pour une étude fondée sur le principe de la représentation et de l'une des formes essentielles à travers lesquelles elles se produisent et se manifestent, à savoir les images. Cette recherche privilégie ainsi une analyse dynamique du phénomène interethnique, l'inscrivant dans le courant constructiviste qui s'intéresse notamment à l'étude des pratiques des acteurs sociaux et leurs représentations, dans le sens qu'elles sont le fruit d'une construction sociale. Dans ce type de démarche analytique, il s'agit de prendre en considération à la fois l'analyse du chercheur et la réalité objective et subjective du vécu des acteurs urbains qui regroupent les riverains, les commerçants, les membres associatifs, les politiques et les médias. C'est justement l'association de ces deux approches qui permet de définir un quartier urbain. Abstract "The spatial and social stakes of an interethnic dynamics in transition in the downtown area. The construction of the various forms of representations in order to define an urban quarter in Nice" The general objective of this PHD is to define the specificity of an urban space located in the downtown area with social and interethnic dynamics. Specifically the diverse ethnic form and sign to include the understanding mariner where society has lived in a specific urban context. The particularity of this work is to advance an analytic method using two disciplines: geography and sociology, in order to bring up a transdisciplinarian research with a common method. The ethnic quarters in the inner-city area are not presented as fixed spaces, since frequent changes were observed in the population level and at the allotment level of the commercial premises and the lodgings. Defined as "undetermined future spaces" as their future in the urban structure or the social relations can not be foresee and are supposed to be subjective to many changes. Therefore speaking of "mutations spaces". The option of this type of thematic research is the study of the principle of representation and essential form which shows and produces the images. Research promotes a dynamic analyses of the interethnic phenomena, inside the constructivist which is focused the practices of social actors, their own representations, and products of a social construction. The production of analytical approach is necessary in order to consider the analyses of the research worker and the objective and subjective reality of the life of the urban actors. It gathers the residents, tradesmen, members of associations, politicians and the press. The association of these types of approach define a urban quarter.

Update of the FANTOM web resource: from mammalian transcriptional landscape to its dynamic regulation.

The international Functional Annotation Of the Mammalian Genomes 4 (FANTOM4) research collaboration set out to better understand the transcriptional network that regulates macrophage differentiation and to uncover novel components of the transcriptome employing a series of high-throughput experiments. The primary and unique technique is cap analysis of gene expression (CAGE), sequencing mRNA 5'-ends with a second-generation sequencer to quantify promoter activities even in the absence of gene annotation. Additional genome-wide experiments complement the setup including short RNA sequencing, microarray gene expression profiling on large-scale perturbation experiments and ChIP-chip for epigenetic marks and transcription factors. All the experiments are performed in a differentiation time course of the THP-1 human leukemic cell line. Furthermore, we performed a large-scale mammalian two-hybrid (M2H) assay between transcription factors and monitored their expression profile across human and mouse tissues with qRT-PCR to address combinatorial effects of regulation by transcription factors. These interdependent data have been analyzed individually and in combination with each other and are published in related but distinct papers. We provide all data together with systematic annotation in an integrated view as resource for the scientific community (http://fantom.gsc.riken.jp/4/). Additionally, we assembled a rich set of derived analysis results including published predicted and validated regulatory interactions. Here we introduce the resource and its update after the initial release.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.