866 resultados para Short-term Forecasting


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The overall aim of this study was to examine experimentally the effects of noise upon short-term memory tasks in the hope of shedding further light upon the apparently inconsistent results of previous research in the area. Seven experiments are presented. The first chapter of the thesis comprised a comprehensive review of the literature on noise and human performance while in the second chapter some theoretical questions concerning the effects of noise were considered in more detail follovred by a more detailed examination of the effects of noise upon memory. Chapter 3 described an experiment which examined the effects of noise on attention allocation in short-term memory as a function of list length. The results provided only weak evidence of increased selectivity in noise. In further chapters no~effects Here investigated in conjunction vrith various parameters of short-term memory tasks e.g. the retention interval, presentation rate. The results suggested that noise effects were significantly affected by the length of the retention interval but not by the rate of presentation. Later chapters examined the possibility of differential noise effects on the mode of recall (recall v. recognition) and the type of presentation (sequential v. simultaneous) as well as an investigation of the effect of varying the point of introduction of the noise and the importance of individual differences in noise research. The results of this study were consistent with the hypothesis that noise at presentation facilitates phonemic coding. However, noise during recall appeared to affect the retrieval strategy adopted by the subject.

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The study aimed to determine if the memory bias for negative faces previously demonstrated in depression and dysphoria generalises from long- to short-term memory. A total of 29 dysphoric (DP) and22 non-dysphoric (ND) participants were presented with a series of faces and asked to identify the emotion portrayed (happiness, sadness, anger, or neutral affect). Following a delay, four faces were presented (the original plus three distractors) and participants were asked to identify the target face. Half of the trials assessed memory for facial emotion, and the remaining trials examined memory for facial identity. At encoding, no group differences were apparent. At memory testing, relative to ND participants, DP participants exhibited impaired memory for all types of facial emotion and for facial identity when the faces featured happiness, anger, or neutral affect, but not sadness. DP participants exhibited impaired identity memory for happy faces relative to angry, sad, and neutral, whereas ND participants exhibited enhanced facial identity memory when faces were angry. In general, memory for faces was not related to performance at encoding. However, in DP participants only, memory for sad faces was related to sadness recognition at encoding. The results suggest that the negative memory bias for faces in dysphoria does not generalise from long- to short-term memory.

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This working paper looks at the short-term impact of the Creative Credits pilot scheme which operated in the Manchester City Region in the North West of England from September 2009 to September 2010, and was funded by NESTA, Manchester City Council, the North West Development Agency, the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC). Creative Credits is a business-to-business (B2B) voucher mechanism designed to encourage small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to work innovatively with creative companies. Businesses receive credits worth £4,000, which they must match with at least £1,000, to spend with creative firms on a variety of creative services.

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Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.

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Short-term project teams do not have the advantage of prior performance or long-term membership to facilitate development of effective team performance. Research suggests interpersonal skills are crucial to success but this is under researched longitudinally. Evolutionary psychology can provide a lens to explain how people develop differing levels of interpersonal skills via the relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and pro-social behaviours. This research aims to investigate the relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and interpersonal skills, the impact of training and to further the evolutionary psychology field by embedding research in a real-world context as opposed to solely in laboratory or student settings.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess refractive and biometric changes 1 week after discontinuation of lens wear in subjects who had been wearing orthokeratology (OK) contact lenses for 2 years. METHODS: Twenty-nine subjects aged 6 to 12 years and with myopia of -0.75 to -4.00 diopters (D) and astigmatism of ≤1.00 D participated in the study. Measurements of axial length and anterior chamber depth (Zeiss IOLMaster), corneal power and shape, and cycloplegic refraction were taken 1 week after discontinuation and compared with those at baseline and after 24 months of lens wear. RESULTS: A hyperopic shift was found at 24 months relative to baseline in spherical equivalent refractive error (+1.86±1.01 D), followed by a myopic shift at 1 week relative to 24 months (-1.93±0.92 D) (both P<0.001). Longer axial lengths were found at 24 months and 1 week in comparison to baseline (0.47±0.18 and 0.51±0.18 mm, respectively) (both P<0.001). The increase in axial length at 1 week relative to 24 months was statistically significant (0.04±0.06 mm; P=0.006). Anterior chamber depth did not change significantly over time (P=0.31). Significant differences were found between 24 months and 1 week relative to baseline and between 1-week and 24-month visits in mean corneal power (-1.68±0.80, -0.44±0.32, and 1.23±0.70 D, respectively) (all P≤0.001). Refractive change at 1 week in comparison to 24 months strongly correlated with changes in corneal power (r=-0.88; P<0.001) but not with axial length changes (r=-0.09; P=0.66). Corneal shape changed significantly between the baseline and 1-week visits (0.15±0.10 D; P<0.001). Corneal shape changed from a prolate to a more oblate corneal shape at the 24-month and 1-week visits in comparison to baseline (both P≤0.02) but did not change significantly between 24 months and 1 week (P=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The effects of long-term OK on ocular biometry and refraction are still present after 1-week discontinuation of lens wear. Refractive change after discontinuation of long-term OK is primarily attributed to the recovery of corneal shape and not to an increase in the axial length.

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Endurance-trained athletes experience a low level of postprandial lipaemia, but this rapidly increases with detraining. We sought to determine whether detraining-induced changes to postprandial metabolism influenced endothelial function and inflammation. Eight endurance-trained men each undertook two oral fat tolerance tests [blood taken fasted and for 6 h following a high-fat test meal (80 g fat, 80 g carbohydrate)]: one during a period of their normal training (trained) and one after 1 wk of no exercise (detrained). Endothelial function in the cutaneous microcirculation was assessed using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis in the fasted state and 4 h postprandially during each test. Fasting plasma triglyceride (TG) concentrations increased by 35% with detraining (P = 0.002), as did postprandial plasma (by 53%, P = 0.002), chylomicron (by 68%, P = 0.02) and very low-density lipoprotein (by 51%, P = 0.005) TG concentrations. Endothelial function decreased postprandially in both the trained (by 17%, P = 0.03) and detrained (by 22%, P = 0.03) conditions but did not differ significantly between the trained and detrained conditions in either the fasted or the postprandial states. These results suggest that, although fat ingestion induces endothelial dysfunction, interventions that alter postprandial TG metabolism will not necessarily concomitantly influence endothelial function.

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AMS subject classification: 90C05, 90A14.

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Purpose: This work investigates how short-term changes in blood glucose concentration affect the refractive components of the diabetic eye in patients with long-term Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Methods: Blood glucose concentration, refractive error components (mean spherical equivalent MSE, J0, J45), central corneal thickness (CCT), anterior chamber depth (ACD), crystalline lens thickness (LT), axial length (AL) and ocular aberrations were monitored at two-hourly intervals over a 12-hour period in: 20 T1DM patients (mean age ± SD) 38±14 years, baseline HbA1c 8.6±1.9%; 21 T2DM patients (mean age ± SD) 56±11 years, HbA1c 7.5±1.8%; and in 20 control subjects (mean age ± SD) 49±23 years, HbA1c 5.5±0.5%. The refractive and biometric results were compared with the corresponding changes in blood glucose concentration. Results: Blood glucose concentration at different times was found to vary significantly within (p<0.0005) and between groups (p<0.0005). However, the refractive error components and ocular aberrations were not found to alter significantly over the day in either the diabetic patients or the control subjects (p>0.05). Minor changes of marginal statistical or optical significance were observed in some biometric parameters. Similarly there were some marginally significant differences between the baseline biometric parameters of well-controlled and poorly-controlled diabetic subjects. Conclusion: This work suggests that normal, short-term fluctuations (of up to about 6 mM/l on a timescale of a few hours) in the blood glucose levels of diabetics are not usually associated with acute changes in refractive error or ocular wavefront aberrations. It is therefore possible that factors other than refractive error fluctuations are sometimes responsible for the transient visual problems often reported by diabetic patients. © 2012 Huntjens et al.

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Natural, unenriched Everglades wetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus (P) and responsive to P enrichment. However, whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental P additions are rare in Everglades or other wetlands. We tested the response of the Everglades wetland ecosystem to continuous, low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and 30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate, 100 m flow-through flumes located in unenriched Everglades National Park. After the first six months of dosing, the concentration and standing stock of phosphorus increased in the surface water, periphyton, and flocculent detrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean = 149 μg P g−1), while the flocculent detrital layer stored most of the accumulated P (30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2, control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responses of P concentration and standing stock were observed primarily in the high dose (30 μg L−1 above ambient) treatment. In addition, the biomass and estimated P standing stock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30 and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterations in P concentration and standing stock occurred only at the upstream ends of the flumes nearest to the point source of added nutrient. The total amount of P stored by the ecosystem within the flume increased with P dosing, although the ecosystem in the flumes retained only a small proportion of the P added over the first six months. These results indicate that oligotrophic Everglades wetlands respond rapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment, and the initial response is most noticeable in the periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

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An oligotrophic phosphorus (P) limited seagrass ecosystem in Florida Bay was experimentally fertilized in a unique way. Perches were installed to encourage seabirds to roost and deliver an external source of nutrients via defecation. Two treatments were examined: (1) a chronic 23-year fertilization and (2) an earlier 28-month fertilization that was discontinued when the chronic treatment was initiated. Because of the low mobility of P in carbonate sediments, we hypothesized long-term changes to ecosystem structure and function in both treatments. Structural changes in the chronic treatment included a shift in the dominant seagrass species from Thalassia testudinum to Halodule wrightii, large increases in epiphytic biomass and sediment chlorophyll-a, and a decline in species richness. Functional changes included increased benthic metabolism and quantum efficiency. Initial changes in the 28-month fertilization were similar, but after 23 years of nutrient depuration T. testudinum has reestablished itself as the dominant species. However, P remains elevated in the sediment and H. wrightii has maintained a presence. Functionally the discontinued treatment remains altered. Biomass exceeds that in the chronic treatment and indices of productivity, elevated relative to control, are not different from the chronic fertilization. Cessation of nutrient loading has resulted in a superficial return to the pre-disturbance character of the community, but due to the nature of P cycles functional changes persist.

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Natural, unenriched Evergladeswetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus(P) and responsive to P enrichment. However,whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental Padditions are rare in Everglades or otherwetlands. We tested the response of theEverglades wetland ecosystem to continuous,low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate,100 m flow-through flumes located in unenrichedEverglades National Park. After the first sixmonths of dosing, the concentration andstanding stock of phosphorus increased in thesurface water, periphyton, and flocculentdetrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean =149 μg P g−1), while the flocculentdetrital layer stored most of the accumulated P(30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2,control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responsesof P concentration and standing stock wereobserved primarily in the high dose (30 μgL−1 above ambient) treatment. Inaddition, the biomass and estimated P standingstock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterationsin P concentration and standing stock occurredonly at the upstream ends of the flumes nearestto the point source of added nutrient. Thetotal amount of P stored by the ecosystemwithin the flume increased with P dosing,although the ecosystem in the flumes retainedonly a small proportion of the P added over thefirst six months. These results indicate thatoligotrophic Everglades wetlands respondrapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment,and the initial response is most noticeable inthe periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

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Hypoxia and ocean acidification are two consequences of anthropogenic activities. These global trends occur on top of natural variability. In environments such as estuarine areas, short-term acute pH and O2 fluctuations are occurring simultaneously. The present study tested the combined effects of short-term seawater acidification and hypoxia on the physiology and energy budget of the thick shell mussel Mytilus coruscus. Mussels were exposed for 72 h to six combined treatments with three pH levels (8.1, 7.7 and 7.3) and two dissolved oxygen (DO) levels (2 mg/L, 6 mg/L). Clearance rate (CR), food absorption efficiency (AE), respiration rate (RR), ammonium excretion rate (ER), O:N ratio and scope for growth (SFG) were significantly reduced, and faecal organic dry weight ratio (E) was significantly increased at low DO. Low pH did not lead to a reduced SFG. Interactive effects of pH and DO were observed for CR, E and RR. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed positive relationships among most physiological indicators, especially between SFG and CR under normal DO conditions. These results demonstrate that Mytilus coruscus was sensitive to short-term (72 h) exposure to decreased O2 especially if combined with decreased pH levels. In conclusion, the short-term oxygen and pH variation significantly induced physiological changes of mussels with some interactive effects.

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With the aim of analyzing the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions at high temporal and spatial resolution in the complex estuarine waters of Alfacs Bay, a beam attenuation-based approach was used as optical proxy of different biogeochemical variables. Thus, the dataset contains the attenuation proxies as well as laboratory results from the analysis of water samples, which were used to validate our approach. In addition, the major physical forcing in the Bay was also measured.