Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究

已有研究表明,中国大陆活动地块边界带是我国大陆强震的主体带和集中区,因此有必要对各边界带开展强震危险性的跟踪分析。本文分别从加卸载响应比时序演化特征、基于对数正态分布的概率方法和b值变化特征3个方面对各边界带未来强震趋势进行了分析;并分别根据加卸载响应比时序演化特征、综合累积概率与条件概率、b值下降判断了各边界带未来发生强震的危险程度。最后,根据3种方法的分析结果,探讨了中国大陆未来5年发生强震的可能区域。

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

Near infrared lights emission of Ar-40(16+) impacting on metal surfaces

The highly charged ion Ar-40(16+) with the velocity (kinetic energy E (K)=150 keV, velocity V=8.5x10(5) m/s) smaller than Bohr velocity (V (Bohr)=2.9x10(6) m/s) was found to hove impacts on the surfaces of metals Ni, Mo, Au and Al, and the Ar atomic infrared light lines and X-rays spectra were simultaneously measured. The experimental results show that the highly charged ion that captures electrons is neutralized, and the multiply-excited hollow atom forms. The hollow atom cascade decay radiates lights from infrared to X-ray spectrum. The intensity of infrared lights shows that the metallic work functions play an important role in the neutralization process of highly charged ions during their interaction with metallic surfaces, which verifies the classical over-the-barrier model.

陕北丘陵沟壑区撂荒地自然恢复植被的组成结构与数量分类

采用样带调查与TWINSPAN分类等方法,对陕北丘陵沟壑区延安、安塞和吴旗174个撂荒地样方的物种组成、出现频率与盖度、及群落类型进行了统计与分类。植被组成结构的统计结果表明:该区自然恢复的植被几乎一半是由禾本科、菊科、豆科和蔷薇科的物种组成,北温带、旧世界温带、世界与泛热带分布成分占到总物种数近75%,且以中旱生、中生和旱生的草本类植物为主,具有典型的温带地面芽植物气候特征。植被的数量分类表明:调查样方基本包括了该区自然恢复的主要植被类型,延安、安塞和吴旗的植被在1年生草本群落到多年生蒿禾类草本群落阶段,依次均以猪毛蒿(Artemisia scoparia)、赖草(Leymussecalinus)、长芒草(Stipa bungeana)、达乌里胡枝子(Lespedeza davurica)、铁杆蒿(Artemisia gmelinii)、茭蒿(Artemisia giraldii)、白羊草(Bothriochloa ischaemun)等为主要优势物种构成的不同组合的植物群落,且这些物种具有较高的盖度和频度;但在植被演替后期,不同植被带及阴阳坡的演替方向却发生了明显的变化。以延安为代表的森林带,阴坡可形成黄...

陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区城郊农村土地利用变化定量分析

以典型黄土丘陵沟壑区——延安市赵庄村为例,选取土地利用动态度、土地利用趋势状态指数、土地利用景观指数等指标,对村庄尺度上的土地利用变化进行了定量分析。结果表明,6 a来,研究区土地利用发生了较大的变化,主要以耕地的减少和未利用土地的增加等变化为主;未利用土地、居住及建设用地、林地、灌草地以不同程度增加,其动态度大小依次为43.92%,15.35%,0.33%,0.17%;而耕地、果园、水域则以不同程度减小,动态度大小依次为7.45%,3.79%,0.20%;耕地、果园、水域呈"落势"状态,而未利用土地、居住及建设用地、林地、灌草地呈"涨势",朝着规模增大的趋势发展;斑块数与斑块密度增加,优势度指数与偏离度指数减小,多样性指数、均匀度指数和破碎度指数都有不同程度的增大。

陕北水蚀风蚀交错区两种生物结皮对土壤饱和导水率的影响

该文以陕北水蚀风蚀交错区普遍发育的地表和地上两种生物结皮为研究对象,分别以3种非生物结皮(无结皮、物理结皮、去除生物结皮)为对照,使用盘式入渗仪测定其饱和导水率。结果表明:与无结皮土壤相比,两种类型生物结皮均可极显著降低土壤饱和导水率;与去除生物结皮土壤相比,两种类型生物结皮对土壤饱和导水率的降低均不显著;与有物理结皮发育的土壤相比,地表生物结皮对土壤饱和导水率的降低不显著,而地上生物结皮对土壤饱和导水率的降低显著。一方面,两种生物结皮对土壤饱和导水率均有明显降低作用,预示生物结皮在降雨活动中可能会增加径流、降低入渗,阻碍研究区水分亏缺条件下的植被恢复和生态与环境建设。另一方面,与不同的对照相比,生物结皮对土壤饱和导水率的影响截然不同,该结论可在一定程度上解释当前有关生物结皮影响土壤水分入渗方面所存在的分歧。

陕北水蚀风蚀交错区两种生物结皮对土壤理化性质的影响

以黄土高原陕北水蚀风蚀交错区六道沟小流域为例,研究了该区以苔藓为主要成分的沙土和黄土两种生物结皮对土壤理化性质的影响。结果显示:(1)两种生物结皮均能显著增加土壤饱和含水量和田间持水量,降低容重和饱和导水率,其中沙土生物结皮还可明显粘化0～25cm土壤质地;(2)两种生物结皮均能不同程度的增加土壤全量养分、速效养分以及有机质含量,降低pH值,但其影响多数集中在表层或结皮层;(3)土壤化学性质中,全氮、速效磷和有机质受生物结皮影响程度较大,而全氮、速效钾和有机质受生物结皮影响土层较深;(4)沙土生物结皮对土壤理化性质的影响程度大于黄土生物结皮。两种类型生物结皮对所研究土壤理化性质的影响总体有利于该区生态环境的改善,且沙土生物结皮较黄土生物结皮具有更为重要的生态功能。

黄土丘陵区仁用杏园不宜间作沙打旺

在陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区对清耕和问作沙打旺(Astragalus adsurgens)6年、4年、2年仁用杏园0～500cm土层土壤水分、有机质、全氮、全磷、速效氮、速效磷、速效钾含量及树体生长状况进行了测定,结果表明,间作沙打旺,除了在秋季提高了0～100cm土层土壤水分以外,在春季、夏季和秋季均显著降低了0～500cm土层土壤水分,且间作沙打旺年限越长,降低越显著。间作沙打旺提高了0～100cm土层土壤有机质和全氮含量,间作年限越长效果越显著,但对100cm土层以下的土壤有机质和全氮无显著影响。间作沙打旺对土壤全磷含量无显著影响。间作沙打旺显著降低了土壤速效养分含量,其中速效氮降低深度达500cm土层,速效磷、速效钾达300cm土层,且间作年限越长,降低越显著。间作沙打旺显著削弱了树体的长势,降低了坐果率和杏仁产量。间作沙打旺存在着与仁用杏争水争肥的矛盾,黄土丘陵沟壑区仁用杏园不宜间作沙打旺。

基于SHAW模型的黄土高原半干旱区农田土壤水分动态模拟

黄土高原半干旱区土壤蒸发强烈,准确地掌握土壤水分动态对于旱地农业水分管理至关重要。应用基于物理基础的一维水热耦合SHAW(The Simultaneous Heat and Water)模型,模拟了陕西子洲岔巴沟流域1964~1967年土壤水分和土壤蒸发的动态特征,以及神木六道沟流域2006年坡地和梯田土壤水分变化。结果表明,除表层土壤水分模拟结果偏差较大,其他土层模拟值与实测值基本吻合,模拟期土壤水分模拟的相对平均绝对误差(Relatively Mean Absolutely Error,RMAE)为5.2%~11.4%。1964~1967年土壤累积蒸发量模拟值与实测值平均相对偏差为0.8%~6.1%,土壤蒸发的模拟值与实测值较为一致。因此,SHAW模型可以用于黄土高原半干旱区农田土壤水分动态规律研究。

陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区土地利用景观格局动态变化特征分析

以位于典型黄土丘陵沟壑区的延安赵庄村为例,选取多样性、优势度、均匀度、破碎度和偏离度等主要指标,对村庄尺度上的土地利用景观格局动态变化进行分析研究。结果表明:1)研究期间,研究区景观斑块数与景观斑块密度增加,而平均斑块面积减少;2)研究区2个时期的景观异质性差异显著,景观指数变化表现为:优势度指数与偏离度指数减小,多样性指数、均匀度指数和破碎度指数都有不同程度的增大;3)6年来,随着退耕还林(草)政策的实施,研究区土地利用景观格局有了较大变化,生态环境整体状况趋于改善,农民收入有所增加,产业结构趋向合理,其中,工副业比例增大与种植业、养殖业、果菜比例减小是研究期间农民收入构成的主要变化特点,农民收入以工副业、果菜为主。

陕北丘陵沟壑区经济林果发展战略

陕北丘陵沟壑区经济林果发展 ,必须抓好建设规划 ,加强坡地经济林果的集流节水保墒和科技宣传 ,创建自己的市场 ,才能解决好植被建设和经济发展这个问题