MULTIPLE MODEL EVALUATION ABSENT THE GOLD STANDARD VIA MODEL COMBINATION

We describe a method for evaluating an ensemble of predictive models given a sample of observations comprising the model predictions and the outcome event measured with error. Our formulation allows us to simultaneously estimate measurement error parameters, true outcome — aka the gold standard — and a relative weighting of the predictive scores. We describe conditions necessary to estimate the gold standard and for these estimates to be calibrated and detail how our approach is related to, but distinct from, standard model combination techniques. We apply our approach to data from a study to evaluate a collection of BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction scores. In this example, genotype is measured with error by one or more genetic assays. We estimate true genotype for each individual in the dataset, operating characteristics of the commonly used genotyping procedures and a relative weighting of the scores. Finally, we compare the scores against the gold standard genotype and find that Mendelian scores are, on average, the more refined and better calibrated of those considered and that the comparison is sensitive to measurement error in the gold standard.

RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS IN A META-ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS WITHIN A GOLD STANDARD IN THE PRESENCE OF MISSING DATA

In evaluating the accuracy of diagnosis tests, it is common to apply two imperfect tests jointly or sequentially to a study population. In a recent meta-analysis of the accuracy of microsatellite instability testing (MSI) and traditional mutation analysis (MUT) in predicting germline mutations of the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, a Bayesian approach (Chen, Watson, and Parmigiani 2005) was proposed to handle missing data resulting from partial testing and the lack of a gold standard. In this paper, we demonstrate an improved estimation of the sensitivities and specificities of MSI and MUT by using a nonlinear mixed model and a Bayesian hierarchical model, both of which account for the heterogeneity across studies through study-specific random effects. The methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of two imperfect diagnostic tests in other meta-analyses when the prevalence of disease, the sensitivities and/or the specificities of diagnostic tests are heterogeneous among studies. Furthermore, simulation studies have demonstrated the importance of carefully selecting appropriate random effects on the estimation of diagnostic accuracy measurements in this scenario.

A pain assessment scale for population-based studies: Development and validation of the Pain Module of the Standard Evaluation Questionnaire

The objectives of this study were to develop and validate a tool for assessing pain in population-based observational studies and to develop three subscales for back/neck, upper extremity and lower extremity pain. Based on a literature review, items were extracted from validated questionnaires and reviewed by an expert panel. The initial questionnaire consisted of a pain manikin and 34 items relating to (i) intensity of pain in different body regions (7 items), (ii) pain during activities of daily living (18 items) and (iii) various pain modalities (9 items). Psychometric validation of the initial questionnaire was performed in a random sample of the German-speaking Swiss population. Analyses included tests for reliability, correlation analysis, principal components factor analysis, tests for internal consistency and validity. Overall, 16,634 of 23,763 eligible individuals participated (70%). Test-retest reliability coefficients ranged from 0.32 to 0.97, but only three coefficients were below 0.60. Subscales were constructed combining four items for each of the subscales. Item-total coefficients ranged from 0.76 to 0.86 and Cronbach's alpha were 0.75 or higher for all subscales. Correlation coefficients between subscales and three validated instruments (WOMAC, SPADI and Oswestry) ranged from 0.62 to 0.79. The final Pain Standard Evaluation Questionnaire (SEQ Pain) included 28 items and the pain manikin and accounted for the multidimensionality of pain by assessing pain location and intensity, pain during activity, triggers and time of onset of pain and frequency of pain medication. It was found to be reliable and valid for the assessment of pain in population-based observational studies.

Precise estimation of postoperative cup alignment from single standard X-ray radiograph with gonadal shielding

This paper addresses the problem of estimating postoperative cup alignment from single standard X-ray radiograph with gonadal shielding. The widely used procedure of evaluation of cup orientation following total hip arthroplasty using single standard anteroposterior radiograph is known inaccurate, largely due to the wide variability in individual pelvic position relative to X-ray plate. 2D-3D image registration methods have been introduced to estimate the rigid transformation between a preoperative CT volume and postoperative radiograph(s) for an accurate estimation of the postoperative cup alignment relative to an anatomical reference extracted from the CT data. However, these methods require either multiple radiographs or a radiograph-specific calibration, both of which are not avaiable for most retrospective studies. Furthermore, these methods were only evaluated on X-ray radiograph(s) without gonadal shielding. In this paper, we propose to use a hybrid 2D-3D registration scheme combining an iterative landmark-to-ray registration with a 2D-3D intensity-based registration to estimate the rigid transfromation for a precise estimation of cup alignment. Quantitative and qualitative results evaluated on clinical and cadaveric datasets are given which indicate the validity of our approach.

Rare K decays in the standard model

The very clean theoretical predictions for the rare decays K --> pi nu nu_bar and KL --> pi0 l+ l- are reviewed, and their various theoretical inputs summarized. The less favorable situation for KL --> mu+ mu- is also commented.

Quality of life and quality-adjusted survival (Q-TWiST) in patients receiving dose-intensive or standard dose chemotherapy for high-risk primary breast cancer

Quality of life (QL) is an important consideration when comparing adjuvant therapies for early breast cancer, especially if they differ substantially in toxicity. We evaluated QL and Q-TWiST among patients randomised to adjuvant dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide administered with filgrastim and progenitor cell support (DI-EC) or standard-dose anthracycline-based chemotherapy (SD-CT). We estimated the duration of chemotherapy toxicity (TOX), time without disease symptoms and toxicity (TWiST), and time following relapse (REL). Patients scored QL indicators. Mean durations for the three transition times were weighted with patient reported utilities to obtain mean Q-TWiST. Patients receiving DI-EC reported worse QL during TOX, especially treatment burden (month 3: P<0.01), but a faster recovery 3 months following chemotherapy than patients receiving SD-CT, for example, less coping effort (P<0.01). Average Q-TWiST was 1.8 months longer for patients receiving DI-EC (95% CI, -2.5 to 6.1). Q-TWiST favoured DI-EC for most values of utilities attached to TOX and REL. Despite greater initial toxicity, quality-adjusted survival was similar or better with dose-intensive treatment as compared to standard treatment. Thus, QL considerations should not be prohibitive if future intensive therapies show superior efficacy.

Quantification of relativistic perturbation forces on spacecraft trajectories

The intent of the work presented in this thesis is to show that relativistic perturbations should be considered in the same manner as well known perturbations currently taken into account in planet-satellite systems. It is also the aim of this research to show that relativistic perturbations are comparable to standard perturbations in speciffc force magnitude and effects. This work would have been regarded as little more then a curiosity to most engineers until recent advancements in space propulsion methods { e.g. the creation of a artiffcial neutron stars, light sails, and continuous propulsion techniques. These cutting-edge technologies have the potential to thrust the human race into interstellar, and hopefully intergalactic, travel in the not so distant future. The relativistic perturbations were simulated on two orbit cases: (1) a general orbit and (2) a Molniya type orbit. The simulations were completed using Matlab's ODE45 integration scheme. The methods used to organize, execute, and analyze these simulations are explained in detail. The results of the simulations are presented in graphical and statistical form. The simulation data reveals that the speciffc forces that arise from the relativistic perturbations do manifest as variations in the classical orbital elements. It is also apparent from the simulated data that the speciffc forces do exhibit similar magnitudes and effects that materialize from commonly considered perturbations that are used in trajectory design, optimization, and maintenance. Due to the similarities in behavior of relativistic versus non-relativistic perturbations, a case is made for the development of a fully relativistic formulation for the trajectory design and trajectory optimization problems. This new framework would afford the possibility of illuminating new more optimal solutions to the aforementioned problems that do not arise in current formulations. This type of reformulation has already showed promise when the previously unknown Space Superhighways arose as a optimal solution when classical astrodynamics was reformulated using geometric mechanics.

A safe and simple solution for intravesical tension-free vaginal tape erosion: removal by standard transurethral resection

OBJECTIVE: To report our experience with the successful removal of visible tension-free vaginal tape (TVT) by standard transurethral electroresection, as intravesical tape erosion after TVT is a rare complication, and removal can be challenging, with few cases reported. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Five patients presenting with TVT erosion into the bladder were treated at our institutions from December 2004 to July 2007; all had standard transurethral electroresection. Their records were reviewed retrospectively to retrieve data on presenting symptoms, diagnostic tests, surgical procedures and outcomes. RESULTS: The median (range) interval between the TVT procedure and the onset of symptoms was 17 (1-32) months. The predominant symptoms were painful micturition, recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI), urgency and urge incontinence. There were no complications during surgery. The storage symptoms and UTI resolved completely after removing the eroded mesh in all but one patient. Cystoscopy at 1 month after surgery showed complete healing of the bladder mucosa. CONCLUSION: Although TVT erosion into the bladder is rare, persistent symptoms, particularly recurrent UTIs, must raise some suspicion for this condition. Standard transurethral electroresection seems to be a safe, simple, minimally invasive and successful treatment option for TVT removal.

Individual versus standard quality of life assessment in a phase II clinical trial in mesothelioma patients: feasibility and responsiveness to clinical changes

In patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma undergoing a multimodality therapy, treatment toxicity may outweigh the benefit of progression-free survival. The subjective experience across different treatment phases is an important clinical outcome. This study compares a standard with an individual quality of life (QoL) measure used in a multi-center phase II trial.

Effects of Standard Labor-Wear on Swimming and Treading Water

We tested the hypothesis that occupational clothing would impair performance during swimming. The sub questions included: (1) Will the standard work wear of a railway worker or laborer impede swimming ability? (2) Will this clothing impact the individual’s ability to tread water? We addressed the research questions with three hypotheses. Analysis showed statistically significant p-values and all three null hypotheses were rejected in favor of the three research hypotheses, showing strong evidence that standard labor wear had adverse effects on 11.43 meter/12.5 yard swim time, water treading time and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) during water treading. The mean swim time more than doubled when the subjects wore standard labor-wear and their average rate of perceived exertion increased from 11.6 in standard swim wear to 17.1 in standard laborwear. It may be beneficial for those workers who work near water to be exposed to educational programs that allow in-water experiences so they develop an understanding of their abilities in, and respect for, the water.

Comparison of low potassium Euro-Collins solution and standard Euro-Collins solution in an extracorporeal rat heart-lung model

OBJECTIVE: Euro-Collins solution (EC) is routinely used in lung transplantation. The high potassium of EC, however, may damage the vascular endothelium, thereby contributing to postischemic reperfusion injury. To assess the influence of the potassium concentration on lung preservation, we evaluated the effect of a "low potassium Euro-Collins solution" (LPEC), in which the sodium and potassium concentrations were reversed. METHODS: In an extracorporeal rat heart-lung model lungs were preserved with EC and LPEC. The heart-lung blocks (HLB) were perfused with Krebs-Henseleit solution containing washed bovine red blood cells and ventilated with room air. The lungs were perfused via the working right ventricle with deoxygenated perfusate. Oxygenation and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were monitored. After baseline measurements, hearts were arrested with St. Thomas' solution and the lungs were perfused with EC or LPEC, or were not perfused (controls). The HLBs were stored for 5 min or 2 h ischemic time at 4 degrees C. Reperfusion and ventilation was performed for 40 min. At the end of the trial the wet/dry ratio of the lungs was calculated and light microscopic assessment of the degree of edema was performed. RESULTS: After 5 min of ischemia oxygenation was significantly better in both preserved groups compared to the controls. Pulmonary vascular resistance was elevated in all three groups after 30 min reperfusion at both ischemic times. After 2 h of ischemia PVR of the group preserved with LPEC was significantly lower than those of the EC and controls (LPEC-5 min: 184 +/- 65 dynes * sec * cm-5, EC-5 min: 275 +/- 119 dynes * sec * cm * cm-5, LPEC-2 h: 324 +/- 47 dynes * sec * m-5, EC-2 h: 507 +/- 83 dynes * sec * cm-5). Oxygenation after 2 h of ischemia and 30 min reperfusion was significantly better in the LPEC group compared to EC and controls (LPEC: 70 +/- 17 mmHg, EC: 44 +/- 3 mmHg). The wet/dry ratio was significantly lower in the two preserved groups compared to controls (LPEC-5 min: 5.7 +/- 0.7, EC-5 min: 5.8 +/- 1.2, controls-5 min: 7.5 +/- 1.8, LPEC-2 h: 6.7 +/- 0.4, EC: 6.9 +/- 0.4, controls-2 h: 7.3 +/- 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: We thus conclude that LPEC results in better oxygenation and lower PVR in this lung preservation model. A low potassium concentration in lung preservation solutions may help in reducing the incidence of early graft dysfunction following lung transplantation.