952 resultados para Ruin Probability


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X-ray microtomography (micro-CT) with micron resolution enables new ways of characterizing microstructures and opens pathways for forward calculations of multiscale rock properties. A quantitative characterization of the microstructure is the first step in this challenge. We developed a new approach to extract scale-dependent characteristics of porosity, percolation, and anisotropic permeability from 3-D microstructural models of rocks. The Hoshen-Kopelman algorithm of percolation theory is employed for a standard percolation analysis. The anisotropy of permeability is calculated by means of the star volume distribution approach. The local porosity distribution and local percolation probability are obtained by using the local porosity theory. Additionally, the local anisotropy distribution is defined and analyzed through two empirical probability density functions, the isotropy index and the elongation index. For such a high-resolution data set, the typical data sizes of the CT images are on the order of gigabytes to tens of gigabytes; thus an extremely large number of calculations are required. To resolve this large memory problem parallelization in OpenMP was used to optimally harness the shared memory infrastructure on cache coherent Non-Uniform Memory Access architecture machines such as the iVEC SGI Altix 3700Bx2 Supercomputer. We see adequate visualization of the results as an important element in this first pioneering study.

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Dose kernels may be used to calculate dose distributions in radiotherapy (as described by Ahnesjo et al., 1999). Their calculation requires use of Monte Carlo methods, usually by forcing interactions to occur at a point. The Geant4 Monte Carlo toolkit provides a capability to force interactions to occur in a particular volume. We have modified this capability and created a Geant4 application to calculate dose kernels in cartesian, cylindrical, and spherical scoring systems. The simulation considers monoenergetic photons incident at the origin of a 3 m x 3 x 9 3 m water volume. Photons interact via compton, photo-electric, pair production, and rayleigh scattering. By default, Geant4 models photon interactions by sampling a physical interaction length (PIL) for each process. The process returning the smallest PIL is then considered to occur. In order to force the interaction to occur within a given length, L_FIL, we scale each PIL according to the formula: PIL_forced = L_FIL 9 (1 - exp(-PIL/PILo)) where PILo is a constant. This ensures that the process occurs within L_FIL, whilst correctly modelling the relative probability of each process. Dose kernels were produced for an incident photon energy of 0.1, 1.0, and 10.0 MeV. In order to benchmark the code, dose kernels were also calculated using the EGSnrc Edknrc user code. Identical scoring systems were used; namely, the collapsed cone approach of the Edknrc code. Relative dose difference images were then produced. Preliminary results demonstrate the ability of the Geant4 application to reproduce the shape of the dose kernels; median relative dose differences of 12.6, 5.75, and 12.6 % were found for an incident photon energy of 0.1, 1.0, and 10.0 MeV respectively.

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Completing a PhD on time is a complex process, influenced by many interacting factors. In this paper we take a Bayesian Network approach to analyzing the factors perceived to be important in achieving this aim. Focusing on a single research group in Mathematical Sciences, we develop a conceptual model to describe the factors considered to be important to students and then quantify the network based on five individual perspectives: the students, a supervisor and a university research students centre manager. The resultant network comprised 37 factors and 40 connections, with an overall probability of timely completion of between 0.6 and 0.8. Across all participants, the four factors that were considered to most directly influence timely completion were personal aspects, the research environment, the research project, and incoming skills.

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In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

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Language has been of interest to numerous economists since the late 20th century, with the majority of the studies focusing on its effects on immigrants’ labour market outcomes; earnings in particular. However, language is an endogenous variable, which along with its susceptibility to measurement error causes biases in ordinary-least-squares estimates. The instrumental variables method overcomes the shortcomings of ordinary least squares in modelling endogenous explanatory variables. In this dissertation, age at arrival combined with country of origin form an instrument creating a difference-in-difference scenario, to address the issue of endogeneity and attenuation error in language proficiency. The first half of the study aims to investigate the extent to which English speaking ability of immigrants improves their labour market outcomes and social assimilation in Australia, with the use of the 2006 Census. The findings have provided evidence that support the earlier studies. As expected, immigrants in Australia with better language proficiency are able to earn higher income, attain higher level of education, have higher probability of completing tertiary studies, and have more hours of work per week. Language proficiency also improves social integration, leading to higher probability of marriage to a native and higher probability of obtaining citizenship. The second half of the study further investigates whether language proficiency has similar effects on a migrant’s physical and mental wellbeing, health care access and lifestyle choices, with the use of three National Health Surveys. However, only limited evidence has been found with respect to the hypothesised causal relationship between language and health for Australian immigrants.

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In cooperative communication systems, several wireless communication terminals collaborate to form a virtual-multiple antenna array system and exploit the spatial diversity to achieve a better performance. This thesis proposes a practical slotted protocol for cooperative communication systems with half-duplex single antennas. The performance of the proposed slotted cooperative communication protocol is evaluated in terms of the pairwise error probability and the bit error rate. The proposed protocol achieves the multiple-input single-output performance bound with a novel relay ordering and scheduling strategy.

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Extending recent research on the importance of specific resources and skills for the internationalization of start-ups, this article tests a negative binomial model on a sample of 520 recently created high technology firms from the UK and Germany. The results show that previous international experience of entrepreneurs facilitates the rapid penetration of foreign markets, especially when the company features a clear and deliberate strategic intent of internationalization from the outset. This research provides one of the first empirical studies linking the influence of entrepreneurial teams to a high probability of success in the internationalization of high-technology ventures.

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Objective: Effective management of multi-resistant organisms is an important issue for hospitals both in Australia and overseas. This study investigates the utility of using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to examine relationships between risk factors and colonization with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Design: Bayesian Network Analysis was performed using infection control data collected over a period of 36 months (2008-2010). Setting: Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Brisbane. Outcome of interest: Number of new VRE Isolates Methods: A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). BN enables multiple interacting agents to be studied simultaneously. The initial BN model was constructed based on the infectious disease physician‟s expert knowledge and current literature. Continuous variables were dichotomised by using third quartile values of year 2008 data. BN was used to examine the probabilistic relationships between VRE isolates and risk factors; and to establish which factors were associated with an increased probability of a high number of VRE isolates. Software: Netica (version 4.16). Results: Preliminary analysis revealed that VRE transmission and VRE prevalence were the most influential factors in predicting a high number of VRE isolates. Interestingly, several factors (hand hygiene and cleaning) known through literature to be associated with VRE prevalence, did not appear to be as influential as expected in this BN model. Conclusions: This preliminary work has shown that Bayesian Network Analysis is a useful tool in examining clinical infection prevention issues, where there is often a web of factors that influence outcomes. This BN model can be restructured easily enabling various combinations of agents to be studied.

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Abstract. 1. Learning may enable insects to obtain nectar from flowers more efficiently. Learning in nectar foraging has been shown primarily in studies of bees and butterflies. Here, learning is demonstrated in the nectar foraging behaviour of a noctuid moth, Helicoverpa armigera. 2. The present studies show that: (1) previous experience with a flowering host species increases the probability of that species being selected for nectar foraging, and (2) previous experience of a particular flower type (food source at bottom or top of the corolla tube) increases the likelihood of the food source being found when that flower type is being searched. 3. The implications of these findings for understanding the pattern of oviposition observed in wild populations of this important pest species are discussed.

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Road safety barriers are used to redirect traffic at roadside work-zones. When filled with water, these barriers are able to withstand low to moderate impact speeds up to 50kmh-1. Despite this feature, Portable Water-filled barriers (PWFB) face challenges such as large lateral displacements, tearing and breakage during impact; especially at higher speeds. This study explores the use of composite action to enhance the crashworthiness of PWFBs and enable their usage at higher speeds. Initially, energy absorption capability of water in PWFB is investigated. Then, composite action of the PWFB with the introduction of steel frame is considered to evaluate its enhanced impact performance. Findings of the study show that the initial height of the impact must be lower than the free surface level of water in a PWFB in order for the water to provide significant crash energy absorption. In general, an impact of a road barrier with 80% filled is a good estimation. Furthermore, the addition of a composite structure greatly reduces the probability of tearing by decreasing the strain and impact energy transferred to the shell container. This allows the water to remain longer in the barrier to absorb energy via inertial displacements and sloshing response. Information from this research will aid in the design of new generation roadside safety structures aimed to increase safety in modern roadways.

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Experimentally, hydrogen-free diamond-like carbon (DLC) films were assembled by means of pulsed laser deposition (PLD), where energetic small-carbon-clusters were deposited on the substrate. In this paper, the chemisorption of energetic C2 and C10 clusters on diamond (001)-( 2×1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The influence of cluster size and the impact energy on the structure character of the deposited clusters is mainly addressed. The impact energy was varied from a few tens eV to 100 eV. The chemisorption of C10 was found to occur only when its incident energy is above a threshold value ( E th). While, the C2 cluster was easily to adsorb on the surface even at much lower incident energy. With increasing the impact energy, the structures of the deposited C2 and C10 are different from the free clusters. Finally, the growth of films synthesized by energetic C2 and C10 clusters were simulated. The statistics indicate the C2 cluster has high probability of adsorption and films assembled of C2 present slightly higher SP3 fraction than that of C10-films, especially at higher impact energy and lower substrate temperature. Our result supports the experimental findings. Moreover, the simulation underlines the deposition mechanism at atomic scale.

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In this paper, the initial stage of films assembled by energetic C36 fullerenes on diamond (001)–(2 × 1) surface at low-temperature was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the Brenner potential. The incident energy was first uniformly distributed within an energy interval 20–50 eV, which was known to be the optimum energy range for chemisorption of single C36 on diamond (001) surface. More than one hundred C36 cages were impacted one after the other onto the diamond surface by randomly selecting their orientation as well as the impact position relative to the surface. The growth of films was found to be in three-dimensional island mode, where the deposited C36 acted as building blocks. The study of film morphology shows that it retains the structure of a free C36 cage, which is consistent with Low Energy Cluster Beam Deposition (LECBD) experiments. The adlayer is composed of many C36-monomers as well as the covalently bonded C36 dimers and trimers which is quite different from that of C20 fullerene-assembled film, where a big polymerlike chain was observed due to the stronger interaction between C20 cages. In addition, the chemisorption probability of C36 fullerenes is decreased with increasing coverage because the interaction between these clusters is weaker than that between the cluster and the surface. When the incident energy is increased to 40–65 eV, the chemisorption probability is found to increased and more dimers and trimers as well as polymerlike-C36 were observed on the deposited films. Furthermore, C36 film also showed high thermal stability even when the temperature was raised to 1500 K.

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The impact induced chemisorption of hydrocarbon molecules (CH3 and CH2) on H-terminated diamond (001)-(2x1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body Brenner potential. The deposition dynamics of the CH3 radical at impact energies of 0.1-50 eV per molecule was studied and the energy threshold for chemisorption was calculated. The impact-induced decomposition of hydrogen atoms and the dimer opening mechanism on the surface was investigated. Furthermore, the probability for dimer opening event induced by chemisorption of CH, was simulated by randomly varying the impact position as well as the orientation of the molecule relative to the surface. Finally, the energetic hydrocarbons were modeled, slowing down one after the other to simulate the initial fabrication of diamond-like carbon (DLC) films. The structure characteristic in synthesized films with different hydrogen flux was studied. Our results indicate that CH3, CH2 and H are highly reactive and important species in diamond growth. Especially, the fraction of C-atoms in the film having sp(3) hybridization will be enhanced in the presence of H atoms, which is in good agreement with experimental observations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The adsorption of low-energy C20 isomers on diamond (0 0 1)–(2×1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the Brenner potential. The energy dependence of chemisorption characteristic was studied. We found that there existed an energy threshold for chemisorption of C20 to occur. Between 10 and 20 eV, the C20 fullerene has high probability of chemisorption and the adsorbed cage retains its original structure, which supports the experimental observations of memory effects. However, the structures of the adsorbed bowl and ring C20 were different from their original ones. In this case, the local order in cluster-assembled films would be different from the free clusters.

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The deposition of hyperthermal CH3 on diamond (001)-(2×1) surface at room temperature has been studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body hydrocarbon potential. The energy threshold effect has been observed. That is, with fixed collision geometry, chemisorption can occur only when the incident energy of CH3 is above a critical value (Eth). Increasing the incident energy, dissociation of hydrogen atoms from the incident molecule was observed. The chemisorption probability of CH3 as a function of its incident energy was calculated and compared with that of C2H2. We found that below 10 eV, the chemisorption probability of C2H2 is much lower than that of CH3 on the same surface. The interesting thing is that it is even lower than that of CH3 on a hydrogen covered surface at the same impact energy. It indicates that the reactive CH3 molecule is the more important species than C2H2 in diamond synthesis at low energy, which is in good agreement with the experimental observation.