Mining business process deviance : a quest for accuracy

This paper evaluates the suitability of sequence classification techniques for analyzing deviant business process executions based on event logs. Deviant process executions are those that deviate in a negative or positive way with respect to normative or desirable outcomes, such as non-compliant executions or executions that undershoot or exceed performance targets. We evaluate a range of feature types and classification methods in terms of their ability to accurately discriminate between normal and deviant executions both when deviances are infrequent (unbalanced) and when deviances are as frequent as normal executions (balanced). We also analyze the ability of the discovered rules to explain potential causes and contributing factors of observed deviances. The evaluation results show that feature types extracted using pattern mining techniques only slightly outperform those based on individual activity frequency. The results also suggest that more complex feature types ought to be explored to achieve higher levels of accuracy.

Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Dragline swing automation

Draglines are very large machines that are used to remove overburden in open-cut coal mines. This paper outlines the design of a computer control system to implement an automated swing cycle on a production dragline. Subsystems and sensors have been developed to satisfy the constraints imposed by the task, the harsh operating environment and the mine's production requirements.

Oral liquid nutritional supplements for people with dementia in residential aged care facilities

AIM: This systematic review investigated the prescription, administration and effectiveness of oral liquid nutritional supplements (OLNS) for people with dementia in residential aged care facilities (RACF). METHODS: A comprehensive search of relevant databases, hand searching and cross-referencing found 15 relevant articles from a total of 2910 possible results. Articles which met the inclusion criteria were critically appraised by two independent reviewers using the relevant Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) appraisal checklist. Data were extracted using the relevant JBI extraction instruments. No data synthesis was possible due to clinical and methodological heterogeneity. RESULTS: Included studies examined a range of strategies, issues and results related to OLNS for persons with dementia in RACFs; however there appear to be significant gaps in the current body of research, particularly in relation to examinations of effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This review was unable to produce a definitive finding regarding effectiveness. OLNS may improve the nutritional state of residents with dementia and help prevent weight loss, and there is some suggestion that it may slow the rate of cognitive decline. However, in order for OLNS to be effective, nursing and care staff need to ensure that sufficient attention is paid to the issues of prescription and administration.

Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Fatal consequences: An analysis of the failed employee voice system at the Bundaberg Hospital

In this paper we discuss the failure of the employee voice system at the Bundaberg Base Hospital (BBH) in Australia. Surgeon Jayant Patel was arrested over the deaths of patients on whom he operated when he was the director of surgery at the hospital. Our interest is in the reasons the established employee voice mechanisms failed when employees attempted to bring serious issues to the attention of managers. Our data is based on an analysis of the sworn testimonies of participants who participated in two inquiries concerning these events. An analysis of the events with a particular focus on the failings of the voice system is presented. We ask the following: how and why did the voice systems in the case of the BBH fail?

Can GRI light up the future of mankind?

There is strong evidence across the media that humanity has finally come to recognize the certainty and imminence of a global environmental crisis due to man-triggered ecological alterations. This widespread recognition of what is happening around us has matured even further as studies acknowledging that everything on Earth is interconnected begin to mount across various branches of learning. The appreciation of this simple linear and two-dimensional relationship implies enormous consequences for economic and management studies, as alternative business models will eventually have to supersede the old practices that still govern major industry sectors (e.g. energy, cement, agriculture, automotive, pharmaceutical, etc.). This paper argues that traditional knowledge found in developing countries can sometimes harness the potential of sparking genuine alternatives to established business practices. With a focus on the most fundamental geochemical cycles on Earth − nitrogen, water, and carbon − and the primary resources they govern (soil, water, and air), three case studies are presented to illustrate how traditional knowledge in the context of GRI (Grassroots Innovation) projects can lead to challenge the dominant logic, when allowed to thrive in terms of adoption and scalability.

Failure to launch: The self-regulating Md -MYB10R6 gene from apple is active in flowers but not leaves of Petunia

Coloured foliage due to anthocyanin pigments (bronze/red/black) is an attractive trait that is often lacking in many bedding, ornamental and horticultural plants. Apples (Malus × domestica) containing an allelic variant of the anthocyanin regulator, Md-MYB10R6, are highly pigmented throughout the plant, due to autoregulation by MYB10 upon its own promoter. We investigated whether Md-MYB10R6 from apple is capable of functioning within the heterologous host Petunia hybrida to generate plants with novel pigmentation patterns. The Md-MYB10R6 transgene (MYB10–R6pro:MYB10:MYB10term) activated anthocyanin synthesis when transiently expressed in Antirrhinumroseadorsea petals and petunia leaf discs. Stable transgenic petunias containing Md-MYB10R6 lacked foliar pigmentation but had coloured flowers, complementing the an2 phenotype of ‘Mitchell’ petunia. The absence of foliar pigmentation was due to the failure of the Md-MYB10R6 gene to self-activate in vegetative tissues, suggesting that additional protein partners are required for Md-MYB10 to activate target genes in this heterologous system. In petunia flowers, where endogenous components including MYB-bHLH-WDR (MBW) proteins were present, expression of the Md-MYB10R6 promoter was initiated, allowing auto-regulation to occur and activating anthocyanin production. Md-MYB10 is capable of operating within the petunia MBW gene regulation network that controls the expression of the anthocyanin biosynthesis genes, AN1 (bHLH) and MYBx (R3-MYB repressor) in petals.

Endogenous and exogenous effects in self-exciting process models of terrorist activity

A model based on the cluster process representation of the self-exciting process model in White and Porter 2013 and Ruggeri and Soyer 2008is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self-exciting or cluster process model. The details of the model derivation and implementation are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database from 2000–2012. Results are discussed in terms of practical interpretation along with implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory.

Complex Symbolic Sequence Encodings for Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible out- comes (e.g., a positive and a negative outcome), the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs.

Magnetic and morphological properties of ferrofluid-impregnated hydroxyapatite/collagen scaffolds

In this article we present the morphological and magnetic characterization of ferrofluid-impregnated biomimetic scaffolds made of hydroxyapatite and collagen used for bone reconstruction. We describe an innovative and simple impregnation process by which the ferrofluid is firmly adsorbed onto the hydroxyapatite/collagen scaffolds. The process confers sufficient magnetization to attract potential magnetic carriers, which may be used to transport bioactive agents that favour bone regeneration. The crystalline structure of the magnetite contained in the ferrofluid is preserved and its quantity, estimated from the weight gain due to the impregnation process, is consistent with that obtained from energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The magnetization, measured with a superconducting quantum interference device, is uniform throughout the scaffolds, demonstrating the efficiency of the impregnation process. The field emission gun scanning electron microscopy characterization demonstrates that the process does not alter the morphology of the hydroxyapatite/collagen scaffolds, which is essential for the preservation of their bioactivity and consequently for their effectiveness in promoting bone formation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

The measurement of intraocular pressure over positive soft contact lenses by rebound tonometry [Medición de la presión intraocular sobre lentes de contacto blandas positivas, mediante tonometría de rebote]

Purpose To investigate if the accuracy of intraocular pressure (IOP) measurements using rebound tonometry over disposable hydrogel (etafilcon A) contact lenses (CL) is affected by the positive power of the CLs. Methods The experimental group comprised 26 subjects, (8 male, 18 female). IOP measurements were undertaken on the subjects’ right eyes in random order using a Rebound Tonometer (ICare). The CLs had powers of +2.00D and +6.00D. Measurements were taken over each contact lens and also before and after the CLs had been worn. Results The IOP measure obtained with both CLs was significantly lower compared to the value without CLs (t test; p<0.001) but no significant difference was found between the two powers of CLs. Conclusions Rebound tonometry over positive hydrogel CLs leads to a certain degree of IOP underestimation. This result didn’t change for the two positive lenses used in the experiment, despite their large difference in power and therefore in lens thickness. Optometrists should bear this in mind when measuring IOP with the rebound tonometer over plus power contact lenses.

Self-assembly of indole-2-carboxylic acid at graphite and gold surfaces

Model systems are critical to our understanding of self-assembly processes. As such, we have studied the surface self-assembly of a small and simple molecule, indole-2-carboxylic acid (I2CA). We combine density functional theory gas-phase (DFT) calculations with scanning tunneling microscopy to reveal details of I2CA assembly in two different solvents at the solution/solid interface, and on Au(111) in ultrahigh vacuum (UHV). In UHV and at the trichlorobenzene/highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) interface, I2CA forms epitaxial lamellar structures based on cyclic OH⋯O carboxylic dimers. The structure formed at the heptanoic acid/HOPG interface is different and can be interpreted in a model where heptanoic acid molecules co-adsorb on the substrate with the I2CA, forming a bicomponent commensurate unit cell. DFT calculations of dimer energetics elucidate the basic building blocks of these structures, whereas calculations of periodic two-dimensional assemblies reveal the epitaxial effects introduced by the different substrates.