Műszaki és gazdasági hatékonyság Koopmans termeléselméletében (Technical and economic efficiency in Koopmans' theory of production)

Koopmans gyakorlati problémák megoldása során szerzett tapasztalatait általánosítva fogott hozzá a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell kidolgozásához. Meglepődve tapasztalta, hogy a korabeli közgazdaságtan nem rendelkezett egységes, kellően egzakt termeléselmélettel és fogalomrendszerrel. Úttörő dolgozatában ezért - mintegy a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell elméleti kereteként - lerakta a technológiai halmazok fogalmán nyugvó axiomatikus termeléselmélet alapjait is. Nevéhez fűződik a termelési hatékonyság és a hatékonysági árak fogalmának egzakt definíciója, s az egymást kölcsönösen feltételező viszonyuk igazolása a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell keretében. A hatékonyság manapság használatos, pusztán műszaki szempontból értelmezett definícióját Koopmans csak sajátos esetként tárgyalta, célja a gazdasági hatékonyság fogalmának a bevezetése és elemzése volt. Dolgozatunkban a lineáris programozás dualitási tételei segítségével rekonstruáljuk ez utóbbira vonatkozó eredményeit. Megmutatjuk, hogy egyrészt bizonyításai egyenértékűek a lineáris programozás dualitási tételeinek igazolásával, másrészt a gazdasági hatékonysági árak voltaképpen a mai értelemben vett árnyékárak. Rámutatunk arra is, hogy a gazdasági hatékonyság értelmezéséhez megfogalmazott modellje az Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie-féle általános egyensúlyelméleti modellek közvetlen előzményének tekinthető, tartalmazta azok szinte minden lényeges elemét és fogalmát - az egyensúlyi árak nem mások, mint a Koopmans-féle hatékonysági árak. Végezetül újraértelmezzük Koopmans modelljét a vállalati technológiai mikroökonómiai leírásának lehetséges eszközeként. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, B41, C61, D20, D50. /===/ Generalizing from his experience in solving practical problems, Koopmans set about devising a linear model for analysing activity. Surprisingly, he found that economics at that time possessed no uniform, sufficiently exact theory of production or system of concepts for it. He set out in a pioneering study to provide a theoretical framework for a linear model for analysing activity by expressing first the axiomatic bases of production theory, which rest on the concept of technological sets. He is associated with exact definition of the concept of production efficiency and efficiency prices, and confirmation of their relation as mutual postulates within the linear model of activity analysis. Koopmans saw the present, purely technical definition of efficiency as a special case; he aimed to introduce and analyse the concept of economic efficiency. The study uses the duality precepts of linear programming to reconstruct the results for the latter. It is shown first that evidence confirming the duality precepts of linear programming is equal in value, and secondly that efficiency prices are really shadow prices in today's sense. Furthermore, the model for the interpretation of economic efficiency can be seen as a direct predecessor of the Arrow–Debreu–McKenzie models of general equilibrium theory, as it contained almost every essential element and concept of them—equilibrium prices are nothing other than Koopmans' efficiency prices. Finally Koopmans' model is reinterpreted as a necessary tool for microeconomic description of enterprise technology.

Viability Theory and Economic Modeling

A brief introduction into the theory of differential inclusions, viability theory and selections of set valued mappings is presented. As an application the implicit scheme of the Leontief dynamic input-output model is considered.

Kornai’s DRSE Theory Versus General Equilibrium Theory

János Kornai’s DRSE theory (Kornai, 2014) follows the ex post model philosophy which radically rejects the ex ante set of conditions laid down by the dominant neoclassical school and the stringent limits of equilibrium, and defines its own premises for the functioning of capitalist economy. In other words, the DRSE theory represents an extremely novel trend among the various schools of economics. The theory is still only a verbal model with the following supporting pillars as the immanent features of the capitalist system: dynamism, rivalry and the surplus economy. (The English name of the theory uses the initial letters of the terms Dynamism, Rivalry, Surplus Economy). The dominance of the surplus economy, that is, oversupply is replaced by monopolistic competition, uncertainty over the volume of demand, Schumpeterian innovation, dynamism, technological progress, creative destruction and increasing return to scale with rivalry between producers and service providers for markets. This paper aims to examine whether the DRSE theory can be formulated as a formal mathematical model. We have chosen a special route to do this: first we explore the unreal ex ante assumptions of general equilibrium theory (Walras, 1874; Neumann, 1945), and then we establish some of the possible connections between the premises of DRSE, which include the crucial condition that just like in biological evolution, there is no fixed steady state in the evolutionary processes of market economy, not even as a point of reference. General equilibrium theory and DRSE theory are compared in the focus of Schumpeterian evolutionary economics.

Essays on exchange rate economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

Essays on Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.

Asymptotic Theory for Extended Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH Processes

The paper considers various extended asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility models, and derives appropriate regularity conditions and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical estimation. For this purpose, we use an underlying vector random coefficient autoregressive process, for which we show the equivalent representation for the asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility model, to derive asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. As an extension, we develop a new multivariate asymmetric long memory volatility model, and discuss the associated asymptotic properties.

Ground and Electronic Excited States from Pairing Matrix Fluctuation and Particle-Particle Random Phase Approximation

The accurate description of ground and electronic excited states is an important and challenging topic in quantum chemistry. The pairing matrix fluctuation, as a counterpart of the density fluctuation, is applied to this topic. From the pairing matrix fluctuation, the exact electron correlation energy as well as two electron addition/removal energies can be extracted. Therefore, both ground state and excited states energies can be obtained and they are in principle exact with a complete knowledge of the pairing matrix fluctuation. In practice, considering the exact pairing matrix fluctuation is unknown, we adopt its simple approximation --- the particle-particle random phase approximation (pp-RPA) --- for ground and excited states calculations. The algorithms for accelerating the pp-RPA calculation, including spin separation, spin adaptation, as well as an iterative Davidson method, are developed. For ground states correlation descriptions, the results obtained from pp-RPA are usually comparable to and can be more accurate than those from traditional particle-hole random phase approximation (ph-RPA). For excited states, the pp-RPA is able to describe double, Rydberg, and charge transfer excitations, which are challenging for conventional time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT). Although the pp-RPA intrinsically cannot describe those excitations excited from the orbitals below the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO), its performances on those single excitations that can be captured are comparable to TDDFT. The pp-RPA for excitation calculation is further applied to challenging diradical problems and is used to unveil the nature of the ground and electronic excited states of higher acenes. The pp-RPA and the corresponding Tamm-Dancoff approximation (pp-TDA) are also applied to conical intersections, an important concept in nonadiabatic dynamics. Their good description of the double-cone feature of conical intersections is in sharp contrast to the failure of TDDFT. All in all, the pairing matrix fluctuation opens up new channel of thinking for quantum chemistry, and the pp-RPA is a promising method in describing ground and electronic excited states.

A Theory and Test of How Speakers with Nonnative Accents are Evaluated in Entrepreneurial Settings

An abundance of research in the social sciences has demonstrated a persistent bias against nonnative English speakers (Giles & Billings, 2004; Gluszek & Dovidio, 2010). Yet, organizational scholars have only begun to investigate the underlying mechanisms that drive the bias against nonnative speakers and subsequently design interventions to mitigate these biases. In this dissertation, I offer an integrative model to organize past explanations for accent-based bias into a coherent framework, and posit that nonnative accents elicit social perceptions that have implications at the personal, relational, and group level. I also seek to complement the existing emphasis on main effects of accents, which focuses on the general tendency to discriminate against those with accents, by examining moderators that shed light on the conditions under which accent-based bias is most likely to occur. Specifically, I explore the idea that people’s beliefs about the controllability of accents can moderate their evaluations toward nonnative speakers, such that those who believe that accents can be controlled are more likely to demonstrate a bias against nonnative speakers. I empirically test my theoretical model in three studies in the context of entrepreneurial funding decisions. Results generally supported the proposed model. By examining the micro foundations of accent-based bias, the ideas explored in this dissertation set the stage for future research in an increasingly multilingual world.

Irreducibility of Random Hilbert Schemes

We prove that a random Hilbert scheme that parametrizes the closed subschemes with a fixed Hilbert polynomial in some projective space is irreducible and nonsingular with probability greater than $0.5$. To consider the set of nonempty Hilbert schemes as a probability space, we transform this set into a disjoint union of infinite binary trees, reinterpreting Macaulay's classification of admissible Hilbert polynomials. Choosing discrete probability distributions with infinite support on the trees establishes our notion of random Hilbert schemes. To bound the probability that random Hilbert schemes are irreducible and nonsingular, we show that at least half of the vertices in the binary trees correspond to Hilbert schemes with unique Borel-fixed points.

Technology is Set to Change Real Estate Forever

Major developments in the technological environment can become commonplace very quickly. They are now impacting upon a broad range of information-based service sectors, as high growth Internet-based firms, such as Google, Amazon, Facebook and Airbnb, and financial technology (Fintech) start-ups expand their product portfolios into new markets. Real estate is one of the information-based service sectors that is currently being impacted by this new type of competitor and the broad range of disruptive digital technologies that have emerged. Due to the vast troves of data that these Internet firms have at their disposal and their asset-light (cloud-based) structures, they are able to offer highly-targeted products at much lower costs than conventional brick-and-mortar companies.

Spatial modeling of data with excessive zeros applied to reindeer pellet-group counts

We analyze a real data set pertaining to reindeer fecal pellet-group counts obtained from a survey conducted in a forest area in northern Sweden. In the data set, over 70% of counts are zeros, and there is high spatial correlation. We use conditionally autoregressive random effects for modeling of spatial correlation in a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), quasi-Poisson hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and hurdle models. The quasi-Poisson HGLM allows for both under- and overdispersion with excessive zeros, while the ZIP and hurdle models allow only for overdispersion. In analyzing the real data set, we see that the quasi-Poisson HGLMs can perform better than the other commonly used models, for example, ordinary Poisson HGLMs, spatial ZIP, and spatial hurdle models, and that the underdispersed Poisson HGLMs with spatial correlation fit the reindeer data best. We develop R codes for fitting these models using a unified algorithm for the HGLMs. Spatial count response with an extremely high proportion of zeros, and underdispersion can be successfully modeled using the quasi-Poisson HGLM with spatial random effects.

Random Access over Multi-Packet Reception Channels: A Mean-Field Approach

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Random extremal solutions of differential inclusions

Given a Lipschitz continuous multifunction $F$ on ${\mathbb{R}}^{n}$, we construct a probability measure on the set of all solutions to the Cauchy problem $\dot x\in F(x)$ with $x(0)=0$. With probability one, the derivatives of these random solutions take values within the set $ext F(x)$ of extreme points for a.e.~time $t$. This provides an alternative approach in the analysis of solutions to differential inclusions with non-convex right hand side.

Modelling of water removal during a paper vacuum dewatering process using a Level-Set method

Water removal in paper manufacturing is an energy-intensive process. The dewatering process generally consists of four stages of which the first three stages include mechanical water removal through gravity filtration, vacuum dewatering and wet pressing. In the fourth stage, water is removed thermally, which is the most expensive stage in terms of energy use. In order to analyse water removal during a vacuum dewatering process, a numerical model was created by using a Level-Set method. Various different 2D structures of the paper model were created in MATLAB code with randomly positioned circular fibres with identical orientation. The model considers the influence of the forming fabric which supports the paper sheet during the dewatering process, by using volume forces to represent flow resistance in the momentum equation. The models were used to estimate the dry content of the porous structure for various dwell times. The relation between dry content and dwell time was compared to laboratory data for paper sheets with basis weights of 20 and 50 g/m2 exposed to vacuum levels between 20 kPa and 60 kPa. The comparison showed reasonable results for dewatering and air flow rates. The random positioning of the fibres influences the dewatering rate slightly. In order to achieve more accurate comparisons, the random orientation of the fibres needs to be considered, as well as the deformation and displacement of the fibres during the dewatering process.

Markov Random Fields in Cancer Mutation Dependencies

Even though a large amount of evidence would suggest that PP2A serine/threonine protein phosphatase acts as a tumour suppressor the genomics data to support this claim is limited. We fit a sparse binary Markov random field with individual sample's total mutational frequency as an additional covariate to model the dependencies between the mutations occurring in the PP2A encoding genes. We utilize the data from recent large scale cancer genomics studies, where the whole genome from a human tumour biopsy has been analysed. Our results show a complex network of interactions between the occurrence of mutations in our twenty examined genes. According to our analysis the mutations occurring in the genes PPP2R1A, PPP2R3A, and PPP2R2B are identified as the key mutations. These genes form the core of the network of conditional dependency between the mutations in the investigated twenty genes. Additionally, we note that the mutations occurring in PPP2R4 seem to be more influential in samples with higher number of total mutations. The mutations occurring in the set of genes suggested by our results has been shown to contribute to the transformation of human cells. We conclude that our evidence further supports the claim that PP2A acts as a tumour suppressor and restoring PP2A activity is an appealing therapeutic strategy.