960 resultados para Probabilidade de default


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This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

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Ocean color measured from satellites provides daily, global estimates of marine inherent optical properties (IOPs). Semi-analytical algorithms (SAAs) provide one mechanism for inverting the color of the water observed by the satellite into IOPs. While numerous SAAs exist, most are similarly constructed and few are appropriately parameterized for all water masses for all seasons. To initiate community-wide discussion of these limitations, NASA organized two workshops that deconstructed SAAs to identify similarities and uniqueness and to progress toward consensus on a unified SAA. This effort resulted in the development of the generalized IOP (GIOP) model software that allows for the construction of different SAAs at runtime by selection from an assortment of model parameterizations. As such, GIOP permits isolation and evaluation of specific modeling assumptions, construction of SAAs, development of regionally tuned SAAs, and execution of ensemble inversion modeling. Working groups associated with the workshops proposed a preliminary default configuration for GIOP (GIOP-DC), with alternative model parameterizations and features defined for subsequent evaluation. In this paper, we: (1) describe the theoretical basis of GIOP; (2) present GIOP-DC and verify its comparable performance to other popular SAAs using both in situ and synthetic data sets; and, (3) quantify the sensitivities of their output to their parameterization. We use the latter to develop a hierarchical sensitivity of SAAs to various model parameterizations, to identify components of SAAs that merit focus in future research, and to provide material for discussion on algorithm uncertainties and future emsemble applications.

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Food is one of the main exogenous sources of genotoxic compounds. In heated food products, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) represent a priority group of genotoxic, mutagenic and/or carcinogenic chemical pollutants with adverse long-term health effects. People can be exposed to these compounds through different environments and via various routes: inhalation, ingestion of foods and water and even percutaneously. The presence of these compounds in food may be due to environmental contamination, to industrial handling and processing of foods and to oil processing and refining. The highest levels of these compounds are found in smoked foods, in seafood which is found in polluted waters, in grilled meats and, to a lesser extent, in vegetable fats and oils. Lower levels of PAHs are found in vegetables and in cereals and its products.

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En este texto se explica el cambio de hábitos que ha supuesto la lectura en formato digital. Se indican los factores que determinan la selección un formato u otro, al igual que la situación en la que se encuentra la lectura digital en España. Para ello, se analizan las noticias sobre este tema encontradas en los periódicos: ABC, El País y El Mundo durante el año 2011 -período relevante para la lectura digital- y se comparan con los resultados de las encuestas de AIMC, FGEE, etc., con el fin de sacar conclusiones certeras.

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Los cambios sufridos por los modelos de comunicación científica hacen que las bibliotecas universitarias se vean obligadas a dar nuevos servicios. Para adecuarse al investigador los bibliotecarios están desarrollando habilidades, colaborando con cada vez más estamentos y sustentando el acceso abierto. Apoyándose en una lista de posibles servicios, basada en la literatura especializada, este trabajo pretende cuantificar y evaluar el apoyo a la investigación desde las bibliotecas universitarias españolas. El sondeo demuestra la aparición de nuevos servicios e infraestructuras. Pero estas asistencias no suelen sistematizarse, difundirse ni evaluarse. Y, por otra parte, las consecuentes inversiones en personal y TIC han generado una brecha entre universidades

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The work analyse from a journalistic point of view the history radio divulgation of health during the Second Republic and the start of the Franco era. For it, printed sources of the health broadcast conferences have been analysed. The most frequently used radio genre was a combination of informative monologue and monologue opinion. Questions relating to maternal-juvenile health were the most disseminated. In general, the radio language employed responded to the needs for clarity, as well as adapting the message to the target audience. With Francoism, the political slogans were incorporated and the gender discussions were given more importance.

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Chronic pain, without any organic or physical cause (DC), which in psycho-medical terminology is known as fi bromyalgia, (FM), is diagnosed each year to a considerable number of women in capitalistic societies. Our main interest in the following paper is to go in depth in the elaboration of this symptom, its treatment and the psychosocial effects, both in the social order as well as in the lives of the people who suffer from it. Our main goal in the following paper is to look deeper in the elaboration (conceptualization) of this symptom, its treatment and psychological affects, both in the social order as well as in the lives of the people who suffer from it, we are using linked speeches in Spanish magazines publications. The result has been the emergence of three hegemonic discourse positions: One position “scientist”, one “therapeutic of the conformity” position and one “economic and legalistic” position. Each of these has a specifi c feature, but on the whole, is enhanced, producing effects such as the absence of social context to explain the disease; disregard of gender differences in the management and treatment; the instrumentalization of pain to legitimize their practices and the subjection of women to the “psycho-biomedical” paradigm. In that way, a new signifi cance and politicization of the concept of pain is proposed.

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La realidad del voluntariado es sumamente compleja hasta el punto de que resulta complicado definir y caracterizar el trabajo voluntario, dada la gran variedad de interpretaciones, motivaciones, variables sociodemográficas y aspectos culturales que configuran el perfil de los voluntarios. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la influencia conjunta de algunas variables sociodemográficas, así como de los valores culturales de índole secular o tradicional, sobre el perfil de los voluntarios en Europa. Además, se investiga qué variables orientan a los voluntarios hacia un determinado tipo de voluntariado u otro. Para ello se ha aplicado principalmente una metodología de regresión logística a partir de la información disponible en la European Value Study. Los resultados obtenidos ayudan a establecer una caracterización del voluntariado en Europa, y confirman la influencia de los valores culturales, en primer lugar, en la realización o no de trabajos de voluntariado, y en segundo lugar, en la elección que hacen estas personas del tipo de actividad con la que están comprometidos. Al analizar dos tipos de voluntariado de motivación supuestamente muy diferente, se concluye que existe un grupo de valores que influyen en ambos, aunque el sentido y la intensidad en la que lo hacen sea diferente; por otra parte, algunos valores tienen influencia o no en la realización de trabajos de voluntariado, dependiendo del tipo específico al que nos refiramos.

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Cooperatives have a long historical experience in the Spanish economy and have demonstrated their ability to compete against traditional firms in the market. To maintain this capability, while taking advantage of the competitive advantages associated with their idiosyncrasies as social economy enterprises, they should take into consideration that the economy is increasingly globalized and increasingly knowledge-based, especially with regards to technological content. As a consequence, the innovative capacity appears to be a key aspect in order to be able to challenge competitors. This article characterizes the innovative behavior of cooperatives in the region of Castile and Leon and analyses the internal and external factors affecting their innovative performance, based on data from a survey of 581 cooperatives. The results of the empirical analysis, which is performed by multivariate binary logistic regression on various types of innovation, lead us to identify the size of the organizations, the existence of planning, the R & D activities and the human capital as the main determining factors.

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The ways of incorporating newcoming students into schools and colleges have been at the center of debate in most OECD countries in recent years. In Spain, the set of measures developed for the reception of immigrant pupils in different Autonomous Communities has also been the subject of specific research, pointing out the similarities and contradictions between pedagogic discourses and school practices. This article takes into account these considerations and presents the reflections from the results of research on the Educational Welcome Facilities (and specifically the EBE) conducted during the school years 2008-2010. This device was created in Catalonia to attend newcomers before enrolling them in the school. It was a pilot project which took place in Vic and Reus for two consecutive years. The research of the EBE has enabled us to explain the relationship between educational assessment that schools made about this facility and reception processes that schools were implementing. The conclusions that emerge from this analysis allowed us to establish relationships between educational host practices of the seven centers analyzed with three different conceptual and educational frameworks of reception.

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The study addresses the essential features of University Programmes for senior citizens (PUM). It committed to the lifelong education through the integration of the elderly in the University. Part of the base that is learned during the entire life cycle, there is no age, no specific space for education. Learning is constructed from knowledge, abilities, skills and aptitudes that are enriched continuously. It is necessary to ensure the elderly to age in a healthy way. It calls for active ageing, effective tool against isolation and social exclusion. The aim is to discover aspects of the UNED Senior training programme that contribute to lifelong learning and satisfaction produced. The PUM are ways for the promotion of aging along with other activities aimed to enhance a creative leisure, access to culture, facilitate training on topics of interest and create a means of participation in all spheres of society. In this research has resorted to a mixed methodology. Their wealth combines the methods of quantitative and qualitative allowing us to obtain information and contrast from different perspectives. The purpose is to verify the results of the investigation. The sample consists of 639 students, 57 teachers and 15 coordinators. The results indicate that the PUM of the UNED Senior is highly satisfactory for those involved, by the adequacy between interests and expectations. Fruit of this research are the conclusions and suggestions for improvement.

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Dense deployment of wireless local area network (WLAN) access points (APs) is an important part of the next generation Wi-Fi and standardization (802.11ax) efforts are underway. Increasing demand for WLAN connectivity motivates such dense deployments, especially in geographical areas with large numbers of users, such as stadiums, large enterprises, multi-tenant buildings, and urban cities. Although densification of WLAN APs guarantees coverage, it is susceptible to increased interference and uncoordinated association of stations (STAs) to APs, which degrade network throughput. Therefore, to improve network throughput, algorithms are proposed in this thesis to optimally coordinate AP associations in the presence of interference. In essence, coordination of APs in dense WLANs (DWLANs) is achieved through coordination of STAs' associations with APs. While existing approaches suggest tuning of APs' beacon powers or using transmit power control (TPC) for association control, here, the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINRs) of STAs and the clear channel assessment (CCA) threshold of the 802.11 MAC protocol are employed. The proposed algorithms in this thesis enhance throughput and minimize coverage holes inherent in cell breathing and TPC techniques by not altering the transmit powers of APs, which determine cell coverage. Besides uncoordinated AP associations, unnecessary frequent transmission deferment is envisaged as another problem in DWLANs due to the clear channel assessment aspect of the carrier sensing multiple access collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) scheme in 802.11 standards and the short spatial reuse distance between co-channel APs. To address this problem in addition to AP association coordination, an algorithm is proposed for CCA threshold adjustment in each AP cell, such that CCA threshold used in one cell mitigates transmission deferment in neighboring cells. Performance evaluation reveals that the proposed association optimization algorithms achieve significant gain in throughput when compared with the default strongest signal first (SSF) association scheme in the current 802.11 standard. Also, further gain in throughput is observed when the CCA threshold adjustment is combined with the optimized association. Results show that when STA-AP association is optimized and CCA threshold is adjusted in each cell, throughput improves. Finally, transmission delay and the number of packet re-transmissions due to collision and contention significantly decrease.

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One of the main pillars in the development of inclusive schools is the initial teacher training. Before determining if it is necessary to make changes (and of what type) in training programs or curriculum guides related to the attention to diversity and inclusive education, the attitudes of future education professionals in this area should be analyzed. This includes the identification of the relevant predictors of inclusive attitudes. The research reported in this article pursued this objective, doing so with a quantitative survey methodology based on the use of cross-sectional structured data collection and statistical analyses related to the quality of the attitude questionnaire (factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha), descriptive statistics, correlations, hypothesis tests for difference of means, and regression analysis in order to predict attitudes towards inclusion in education. Firstly, the results show that the participants held very positive attitudes toward the inclusion of students with special educational needs. Particularly, older respondents, those with a longer training and, to a lesser extent, women and those who had been in touch with disabled people stood out within this attitude. Secondly, it is evidenced that self-transcendence values ​and, more weakly, contact, function as robust predictors of attitudes of future practitioners towards the inclusion of students with special needs. Some applications for the initial professionalization of educators are suggested in the discussion.

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Los avances que están produciéndose en el ámbito académico con el surgimiento de herramientas de la Web 2.0 y el empleo masivo por parte de los estudiantes de la redes sociales para comunicarse entre ellos, está haciendo que el panorama educativo se encuentre ante unos desafíos a los que tiene que dar respuesta. La investigación que aquí se presenta tuvo como objetivo principal analizar el estado del empleo de la redes sociales por parte alumnado universitario, así como los posibles malos hábitos y usos problemáticos de las mismas. Se utilizó como instrumento de recogida de información un cuestionario “ad hoc” con un total de 23 ítems. Se concluye que el alumnado en general no posee malos hábitos en el empleo de las redes sociales, igualmente los resultados obtenidos ponen de manifiesto que su utilización no está plenamente integrada en las instituciones universitarias de educación superior, así como que los estudiantes no las emplean/usan como herramienta fundamental para las resolución de cuestiones académicas.