Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

HUMAN CHOLESTERYL ESTER TRANSFER PROTEIN EXPRESSION ENHANCES THE MOUSE SURVIVAL RATE IN AN EXPERIMENTAL SYSTEMIC INFLAMMATION MODEL: A NOVEL ROLE FOR CETP

Mice expressing human cholesteryl ester transfer protein (huCETP) are more resistant to Escherichia coli bacterial wall LIPS because death rates 5 days after intraperitoneal inoculation of LIPS were higher in wild-type than in huCETP(+/-) mice, whereas all huCETP(+/+) mice remained alive. After LIPS inoculation, plasma concentrations of TNF-alpha and IL-6 increased less in huCETP(+/+) than in wild-type mice. LPS in vitro elicited lower TNF-alpha production by CETP expressing than by wild-type macrophages. In addition, TNF-alpha production by RAW 264.7 murine macrophages increased on incubation with LPS but decreased in a dose-dependent manner when human CETP was added to the medium. Human CETP in vitro enhanced the LIPS binding to plasma high-density lipoprotein/low-density lipoprotein. The liver uptake of intravenous infused C-14-LPS from Salmonella typhimurium was greater in huCETP(+/+) than in wild-type mice. Present data indicate for the first time that CETP is an endogenous component involved in the first line of defense against an exacerbated production of proinflammatory mediators.

Development of an animal model for allergic conjunctivitis: influence of genetic factors and allergen concentration on immune response

Purpose: Animal models of diseases are extremely important in the study of the physiopathogenesis of human diseases and for testing novel therapeutic interventions. The present study aimed to develop an animal model that simulates human allergic conjunctivitis and to study how allergic response may be influenced by the allergen dose used for immunization and by genetic factors. Methods: Sixty C57Bl/6 mice and 60 BALB/c mice were immunized with placebo, or 5 mu g or 500 mu g of allergen derived from Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus. After ocular challenge, the mice were examined in order to clinically verify the occurrence or not of conjunctivitis. Material obtained from animals was used for total and specific IgE and IgG1 dosage, for assays of Der p-specific lymphocyte proliferation and supernatant cytokine dosage, and for histopathological evaluation of conjunctiva. Results: We developed a murine model of allergic conjunctivitis induced by D. pteronyssinus. The model is similar to human disease both clinically and according to laboratory findings. In mouse, conjunctivitis was associated with a Th2 cytokine profile. However, IL-10 appeared to be involved with disease blockade. Mice of different strains have distinct immune responses, depending on the sensitization dose. Conclusions: The murine model developed is suitable for the study of immunopathogenesis and as a template for future therapies. Using BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, we demonstrated that genetic factors play a role in determining susceptibility and resistance, as well as in establishing the allergen concentration needed to induce or to block disease development.

Synthetic nanoemulsion resembling a protein-free model of 7-ketocholesterol containing low density lipoprotein: In vitro and in vivo studies

7-ketocholesterol (7-KC) differs from cholesterol by a functional ketone group at C7. It is an oxygenated cholesterol derivative (oxysterol), commonly present in oxidized low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Oxysterols are generated and participate in several physiologic and pathophysiologic processes. For instance, the cytotoxic effects of oxidized LDL have been widely attributed to bioactive compounds like oxysterols. The toxicity is in part due to 7-KC. Here we aimed to demonstrate the possibility of incorporating 7-KC into the synthetic nanoemulsion LDE, which resembles LDL in composition and behavior. This would provide a suitable artificial particle resembling LDL to study 7-KC metabolism. We were able to incorporate 7-KC in several amounts into LDE. The incorporation was evaluated and confirmed by several methods, including gel filtration chromatography, using radiolabeled lipids. The incorporation did not change the main lipid composition characteristics of the new nanoparticle. Particle sizes were also evaluated and did not differ from LDE. In vivo studies were performed by injecting the nanoemulsion into mice. The plasma kinetics and the targeted organs were the same as described for LDE. Therefore, 7-KC-LDE maintains composition, size and some functional characteristics of LDE and could be used in experiments dealing with 7-ketocholesterol metabolism in lipoproteins.

Anisotropic correlated electron model associated with the Temperley-Lieb algebra

We present an anisotropic correlated electron model on a periodic lattice, constructed from an R-matrix associated with the Temperley-Lieb algebra. By modification of the coupling of the first and last sites we obtain a model with quantum algebra invariance.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Prognostic value of left atrial volume in patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography for known or suspected coronary artery disease

Background Left atrial volume indexed (LAVI) has been reported as a predictor of cardiovascular events. We sought to determine the prognostic value of LAVI for predicting the outcome of patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) for known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods From January 2000 to July 2005, we studied 981 patients who underwent DSE and off-line measurements of LAVI. The value of DSE over clinical and LAVI data was examined using a stepwise log-rank test. Results During a median follow-up of 24 months, 56 (6%) events occurred. By univariate analysis, predictors of events were male sex, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial diameter indexed, LAVI, and abnormal DSE. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors were LVEF (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.00), LAVI (RR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05), and abnormal DSE (RR = 2.70, 95% CI 1.28-5.69). In an incremental multivariate model, LAVI was additional to clinical data for predicting events (chi(2) 36.8, P < .001). The addition of DSE to clinical and LAVI yielded incremental information (chi(2) 55.3, P < .001). The 3-year event-free survival in patients with normal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2) was 96%; with abnormal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2), 91%; with normal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2), 83%; and with abnormal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2) 51%. Conclusion Left atrial volume indexed provides independent prognostic information in patients who underwent DSE for known or suspected CAD. Among patients with normal DSE, those with larger LAVI had worse outcome, and among patients with abnormal DSE, LAVI was still predictive. (Am Heart J 2008; 156:1110-6.)

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Predictive value for malignancy in the finding of microcalcifications on ultrasonography of thyroid nodules

Background. The am of this study was to determine the predictive value for malignancy of microcalcifications determined by ultrasonography in thyroid nodules. Methods. One hundred seventy-seven nodules were prospectively studied by ultrasonography and compared with their fine-needle aspirative biopsy. The association between the presence and type of calcification and cytologic findings was verified through the chi-square test or likelihood ratio. Results. Thirty nodules showed calcification, of which 17 had fine calcifications, 3 had fine and gross calcifications, and 10 had only coarse calcification. Seven (41.18%) of 17 fine calcified nodules were malignant on cytology, 8 (47.06%) were benign, 1 (5,88%) was indeterminate, and 1 was suspect for malignancy. We found statistical significance between the presence of fine calcifications and malignancy (p =.001) and, in the 13 malignant nodule group, 8 (61.50%) had fine calcifications. Conclusion. This study suggests that microcalcifications were highly specific for malignancy and were present in 61% of the malignant nodules. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A two-dimensional fuzzy random model of soil pore structure

A new conceptual model for soil pore-solid structure is formalized. Soil pore-solid structure is proposed to comprise spatially abutting elements each with a value which is its membership to the fuzzy set ''pore,'' termed porosity. These values have a range between zero (all solid) and unity (all pore). Images are used to represent structures in which the elements are pixels and the value of each is a porosity. Two-dimensional random fields are generated by allocating each pixel a porosity by independently sampling a statistical distribution. These random fields are reorganized into other pore-solid structural types by selecting parent points which have a specified local region of influence. Pixels of larger or smaller porosity are aggregated about the parent points and within the region of interest by controlled swapping of pixels in the image. This creates local regions of homogeneity within the random field. This is similar to the process known as simulated annealing. The resulting structures are characterized using one-and two-dimensional variograms and functions describing their connectivity. A variety of examples of structures created by the model is presented and compared. Extension to three dimensions presents no theoretical difficulties and is currently under development.

Aerobic training reverses airway inflammation and remodelling in an asthma murine model

Aerobic training (AT) decreases dyspnoea and exercise-induced bronchospasm, and improves aerobic capacity and quality of life; however, the mechanisms for such benefits remain poorly understood. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the AT effects in a chronic model of allergic lung inflammation in mice after the establishment of airway inflammation and remodelling. Mice were divided into the control group, AT group, ovalbumin (OVA) group or OVA+AT group and exposed to saline or OVA. AT was started on day 28 for 60 min five times per week for 4 weeks. Respiratory mechanics, specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E and IgG(1), collagen and elastic fibres deposition, smooth muscle thickness, epithelial mucus, and peribronchial density of eosinophils, CD3+ and CD4+, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, interferon-gamma, IL-2, IL-1ra, IL-10, nuclear factor (NF)-kappa B and Foxp3 were evaluated. The OVA group showed an increase in IgE and IgG1, eosinophils, CD3+, CD4+, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, NF-kappa B, collagen and elastic, mucus synthesis, smooth muscle thickness and lung tissue resistance and elastance. The OVA+AT group demonstrated an increase of IgE and IgG(1), and reduction of eosinophils, CD3+, CD4+, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, NF-kappa B, airway remodelling, mucus synthesis, smooth muscle thickness and tissue resistance and elastance compared with the OVA roup (p < 0.05). The OVA+AT group also showed an increase in IL-10 and IL-1ra (p < 0.05), independently of Foxp3. AT reversed airway inflammation and remodelling and T-helper cell 2 response, and improved respiratory mechanics. These results seem to occur due to an increase in the expression of IL-10 and IL-1ra and a decrease of NF-kappa B.

Proton transport model in the ionosphere .1. Multistream approach of the transport equations

The suprathermal particles, electrons and protons, coming from the magnetosphere and precipitating into the high-latitude atmosphere are an energy source of the Earth's ionosphere. They interact with ambient thermal gas through inelastic and elastic collisions. The physical quantities perturbed by these precipitations, such as the heating rate, the electron production rate, or the emission intensities, can be provided in solving the kinetic stationary Boltzmann equation. This equation yields particle fluxes as a function of altitude, energy, and pitch angle. While this equation has been solved through different ways for the electron transport and fully tested, the proton transport is more complicated. Because of charge-changing reactions, the latter is a set of two-coupled transport equations that must be solved: one for protons and the other for H atoms. We present here a new approach that solves the multistream proton/hydrogen transport equations encompassing the collision angular redistributions and the magnetic mirroring effect. In order to validate our model we discuss the energy conservation and we compare with another model under the same inputs and with rocket observations. The influence of the angular redistributions is discussed in a forthcoming paper.

Characterizing QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model

This paper provides a characterization of QALYs, the most important outcome measure in medical decision making, in the context of a general rank dependent utility model. We show that both for chronic and for nonchronic health states the characterization of QALYs depends on intuitive conditions. This facilitates the assessment of the validity of QALYs in rank dependent non-expected utility theories and a comparison with other utility based measures of health.

Value congruence in leader-member exchange

In this study, hypotheses were tested that the quality of leader-member exchanges (LMX) depends on congruity of values between leader and member. Data on negotiating latitude and personal values were gathered from 160 members of 30 work groups in Australian organizations. Factor analysis revealed 5 value dimensions: Freedom, Achievement, Mateship, Obedience, and Coping. Analyses of variance supported the hypothesis that LMX quality is higher when leaders and members share achievement and obedience values. Subsequent exploratory analysis, however, indicated that a more complex model based on compatibility of leader authority and member affiliation values may provide a more complete representation.

The prognostic value of CD147/EMMPRIN is associated with monocarboxylate transporter 1 co-expression in gastric cancer

The aim of the present work was to assess the role of monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs), namely MCT1 and MCT4 as well as MCT/CD147 co-expression in gastric tissues and evaluate their clinico-pathological significance in gastric carcinoma. For that, we analysed the immunohistochemical expression of MCT1, MCT4 and CD147, in a large series of gastric samples, including non-neoplastic, tumour and metastatic tissues. A significant decrease in MCT4 plasma membrane expression was observed from non-neoplastic to gastric primary malignant tissues and to lymph-node metastasis and both MCT1 and MCT4 correlated with CD147. Importantly, both MCT4 and CD147 were more frequently expressed in Lauren`s intestinal-type tumours and MCT1/CD147 co-expression was associated with advanced gastric carcinoma, Lauren`s intestinal type, TNM staging and lymph-node metastasis. Our results showed that the prognostic value of CD147 was associated with MCTI co-expression in gastric cancer cells, supporting the view that CD147 plasma membrane activity is dependent on MCT co-expression. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.