A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Plasmacytoid dendritic cells promote immunosuppression in ovarian cancer via ICOS costimulation of Foxp3(+) T-regulatory cells.

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the fifth most common cause of cancer death among women. Despite its immunogenicity, effective antitumor responses are limited, due, in part, to the presence of forkhead box protein 3-positive (Foxp3(+)) T regulatory (Treg) cells in the tumor microenvironment. However, the mechanisms that regulate the accumulation and the suppressive function of these Foxp3(+) Treg cells are poorly understood. Here, we found that the majority of Foxp3(+) Treg cells accumulating in the tumor microenvironment of EOCs belong to the subset of Foxp3(+) Treg cells expressing inducible costimulator (ICOS). The expansion and the suppressive function of these cells were strictly dependent on ICOS-L costimulation provided by tumor plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC). Accordingly, ICOS(+) Foxp3(+) Treg cells were found to localize in close vicinity of tumor pDCs, and their number directly correlated with the numbers of pDCs in the tumors. Furthermore, pDCs and ICOS(+) Foxp3(+) Treg cells were found to be strong predictors for disease progression in patients with ovarian cancer, with ICOS(+) Treg cell subset being a stronger predictor than total Foxp3(+) Treg cells. These findings suggest an essential role for pDCs and ICOS-L in immunosuppression mediated by ICOS(+) Foxp3(+) Treg cells, leading to tumor progression in ovarian cancer.

Record keeping by Swiss physiotherapists--a national survey of knowledge regarding legal requirements.

A national survey conducted in Switzerland aimed to evaluate the knowledge of physiotherapists regarding the legal requirements for record keeping and to collect their feedback about record keeping in general. Three physiotherapists from various professional practice groups and a lawyer specialised in health law developed a questionnaire that was sent to the 7,753 members of two existing national associations of physiotherapists. The questionnaire evaluated the participants' knowledge by calculating a score of legal knowledge, which had a maximum of 30 points. We included 825 questionnaires in the analysis. The large majority (83.4%) of participants confessed an ignorance of the legal requirements concerning record keeping prior to the survey. The average score of legal compatibility was 8 points. The younger age of the physiotherapists was a significant predictor of having knowledge of the legal requirements for record keeping (p <0.001). The participants had an appreciation of the value of records, but they did not have the relevant knowledge regarding the legal requirements for keeping records. The participants blamed a lack of time and remuneration for their failure to keep records according to known requirements. All practising allied health professionals should keep up-to-date and accurate records that conform to active legal requirements and existing international guidelines. In addition to the existing legal requirements, the emergence of e-health and the electronic era will trigger major changes in patient record management by physiotherapists.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Prospective study evaluating the predictability of need for retreatment with intravitreal ranibizumab for age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE: To investigate the rhythm and predictability of the need for retreatment with intravitreal injections of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). METHODS: This prospective study enrolled 39 patients with treatment-naïve nAMD. After three loading doses of intravitreal ranibizumab, patients underwent an intensified follow-up for 12 months (initially weekly, then with stepwise increases to every 2 weeks and to monthly after each injection). Patients were retreated on an as-needed basis if any fluid or increased central retinal thickness (CRT) (>50μm) was found on spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT). Statistical analysis included patients who received at least two retreatments (five injections). RESULTS: A mean of 7.5 injections (range 0-12) were given between months 3 and 15. The mean visual acuity increased by 13.1 and 12.6 ETDRS letters at months 12 and 15 respectively. Two or more injection-retreatment intervals were found in 31 patients. The variability of their intra-individual intervals up to 14 weeks was small (SD 0-2.13 weeks), revealing a high regularity of the retreatment rhythm. The SD was correlated with the mean interval duration (r = 0.89, p < 0.001). The first interval was a good predictor of the following intervals (regression coefficient =0.81). One retreatment criterion was stable in 97 % of patients (cysts or subretinal fluid). CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate a high intra-individual predictability of retreatment need with ranibizumab injections for nAMD. These findings may be helpful for developing individualized treatment plans for maintained suppression of disease activity with a minimum of injections and visits.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

Predictors and Moderators of Clinical Outcomes in Adolescents with Severe Mental Disorders After an Assertive Community Treatment.

Previous studies have shown that stressful life events (SLEs), gender, social functioning and pretreatment severity are some of the predictors and/or moderators of treatment outcome in psychiatric care. The current study explored the effect of these predictors and moderators on the treatment outcome related to assertive community treatment (ACT) proposed to young people with severe mental disorders. 98 patients were assessed for externalizing and emotional difficulties, at admission and then at discharge of an ACT. Analyses revealed significant improvements in terms of symptomatology. In particular, regression analyses showed that pretreatment severity is a significant predictor of the outcome on emotional symptoms and is moderated by SLE on the outcome on externalizing symptoms. Furthermore, higher social functioning proved to predict better outcome on externalizing symptoms. Our results further evidence that these factors can explain inter-individual differences in outcome related to ACT. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed.

Immune response to hepatitis B vaccination in HIV-positive adults with isolated antibodies to HBV core antigen.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the merits of vaccination against hepatitis B virus (HBV) in HIV-positive individuals with isolated antibodies to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc). METHODS: HIV-positive patients with isolated anti-HBc and CD4 counts >200 cells/mm(3) received HBV vaccination. An antibody titre to hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs titres) ≥10 IU/L one month post-vaccination was termed an anamnestic response; a titre <10 IU/L was termed a primary response. Patients with primary responses received a 3-dose vaccine course. Anti-HBs titres in all responders were measured 12 and 24 months post-vaccination. RESULTS: 37 patients were studied: 19 (51%) were co-infected with hepatitis C; median CD4 count was 443 cells/mm(3). 8/37 patients (22%) elicited an anamnestic response. 29/37 patients (78%) elicited a primary response. After a 3-dose vaccine course, 15/25 primary responders (60%) achieved anti-HBs titres ≥10 IU/L. HIV acquisition through injecting drug use was the only independent predictor of an anamnestic response (OR 22.9, CI 1.71-306.74, P=0.018). Median anti-HBs titres for anamnestic and primary responders were 51 IU/L (13-127) and 157 IU/L (25-650) respectively. Of all responders, 12/23 (52%) retained anti-HBs titres ≥10 IU/L at 24 months. Anti-HBs duration was not significantly different between anamnestic and primary responders. CONCLUSIONS: 23/37 HIV-positive patients (62%) with isolated anti-HBc achieved anti-HBs titres ≥10 IU/L after 1-3 vaccine doses. However, duration of this immune response was short-lived (

Rein et tabac : revue de la littérature et mise au point [Kidney and smoking: literature review and focus].

Smoking remains a major public health problem. It is associated with a considerable number of deaths in the world's population. Smoking is just like high blood pressure, an independent predictor of progression to any primary renal disease and renal transplant patients. It seems that smoking cessation slows the progression of kidney disease in smokers. The literature data are sometimes contradictory about it because of some methodological weaknesses. However, experimental models highlight the harmful effects of tobacco by hemodynamic and non-hemodynamic factors. The conclusion is that a major effort should be further produced by the nephrology community to motivate our patients to stop smoking.

Geographical and temporal body size variation in a reptile: roles of sex, ecology, phylogeny and ecology structured in phylogeny.

Geographical body size variation has long interested evolutionary biologists, and a range of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed patterns. It is considered to be more puzzling in ectotherms than in endotherms, and integrative approaches are necessary for testing non-exclusive alternative mechanisms. Using lacertid lizards as a model, we adopted an integrative approach, testing different hypotheses for both sexes while incorporating temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic autocorrelation at the individual level. We used data on the Spanish Sand Racer species group from a field survey to disentangle different sources of body size variation through environmental and individual genetic data, while accounting for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. A variation partitioning method was applied to separate independent and shared components of ecology and phylogeny, and estimated their significance. Then, we fed-back our models by controlling for relevant independent components. The pattern was consistent with the geographical Bergmann's cline and the experimental temperature-size rule: adults were larger at lower temperatures (and/or higher elevations). This result was confirmed with additional multi-year independent data-set derived from the literature. Variation partitioning showed no sex differences in phylogenetic inertia but showed sex differences in the independent component of ecology; primarily due to growth differences. Interestingly, only after controlling for independent components did primary productivity also emerge as an important predictor explaining size variation in both sexes. This study highlights the importance of integrating individual-based genetic information, relevant ecological parameters, and temporal and spatial autocorrelation in sex-specific models to detect potentially important hidden effects. Our individual-based approach devoted to extract and control for independent components was useful to reveal hidden effects linked with alternative non-exclusive hypothesis, such as those of primary productivity. Also, including measurement date allowed disentangling and controlling for short-term temporal autocorrelation reflecting sex-specific growth plasticity.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergooing heart surgery.

Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

Prediction of functional outcome 18 months after a first psychotic episode: a proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of drosophilid larval assemblages associated to fruits

The study of organisms and their resources is critical to further understanding population dynamics in space and time. Although drosophilids have been widely used as biological models, their relationship with breeding and feeding sites has received little attention. Here, we investigate drosophilids breeding in fruits in the Brazilian Savanna, in two contrasting vegetation types, throughout 16 months. Specifically, larval assemblages were compared between savannas and forests, as well as between rainy and dry seasons. The relationships between resource availability and drosophilid abundance and richness were also tested. The community (4,022 drosophilids of 23 species and 2,496 fruits of 57 plant taxa) varied widely in space and time. Drosophilid assemblages experienced a strong bottleneck during the dry season, decreasing to only 0.5% of the abundance of the rainy season. Additionally, savannas displayed lower richness and higher abundance than the forests, and were dominated by exotic species. Both differences in larval assemblages throughout the year and between savannas and gallery forests are consistent with those previously seen in adults. Although the causes of this dynamic are clearly multifactorial, resource availability (richness and abundance of rotten fruits) was a good predictor of the fly assemblage structure.