Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

A multi-criteria analysis approach for ranking and selection of microorganisms for the production of oils for biodiesel production

Oleaginous microorganisms have potential to be used to produce oils as alternative feedstock for biodiesel production. Microalgae (Chlorella protothecoides and Chlorella zofingiensis), yeasts (Cryptococcus albidus and Rhodotorula mucilaginosa), and fungi (Aspergillus oryzae and Mucor plumbeus) were investigated for their ability to produce oil from glucose, xylose and glycerol. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and preference ranking organization method for the enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) with graphical analysis for interactive aid (GAIA), was used to rank and select the preferred microorganisms for oil production for biodiesel application. This was based on a number of criteria viz., oil concentration, content, production rate and yield, substrate consumption rate, fatty acids composition, biomass harvesting and nutrient costs. PROMETHEE selected A. oryzae, M. plumbeus and R. mucilaginosa as the most prospective species for oil production. However, further analysis by GAIA Webs identified A. oryzae and M. plumbeus as the best performing microorganisms.

Investigating the population structure of Queensland invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates in children: Using a modified multi-locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis and a novel minimum SNPs capsular typing method

This research investigated the use of DNA fingerprinting to characterise the bacteria Streptococcus pneumoniae or pneumococcus, and hence gain insight into the development of new vaccines or antibiotics. Different bacterial DNA fingerprinting methods were studied, and a novel method was developed and validated, which characterises different cell coatings that pneumococci produce. This method was used to study the epidemiology of pneumococci in Queensland before and after the introduction of the current pneumococcal vaccine. This study demonstrated that pneumococcal disease is highly prevalent in children under four years, that the bacteria can `switch' its cell coating to evade the vaccine, and that some DNA fingerprinting methods are more discriminatory than others. This has an impact on understanding which strains are more prone to cause invasive disease. Evidence of the excellent research findings have been published in high impact internationally refereed journals.

Parametric study on cement-based soft-hard-soft (SHS) multi-layer composite pavement against blast load

An innovative cement-based soft-hard-soft (SHS) multi-layer composite has been developed for protective infrastructures. Such composite consists of three layers including asphalt concrete (AC), high strength concrete (HSC), and engineered cementitious composites (ECC). A three dimensional benchmark numerical model for this SHS composite as pavement under blast load was established using LSDYNA and validated by field blast test. Parametric studies were carried out to investigate the influence of a few key parameters including thickness and strength of HSC and ECC layers, interface properties, soil conditions on the blast resistance of the composite. The outcomes of this study also enabled the establishment of a damage pattern chart for protective pavement design and rapid repair after blast load. Efficient methods to further improve the blast resistance of the SHS multi-layer pavement system were also recommended.

Building resilient communities: Creating effective multi-channel communication during disaster response and recovery

Our aim is to examine evidence-based strategies to motivate appropriate action and increase informed decision-making during the response and recovery phases of disasters. We combine expertise in communication, consumer psychology and marketing, disaster and emergency management, and law. This poster presents findings from a social media work package, and preliminary findings from the focus group work package on emergency warning message comprehension.

Re-thinking ancillary: Australian screen content in education

The use of Australian screen content in Australian schools and universities is undergoing rapid change due to digital and online distribution capacity on the supply side and digital and online affordance embedded in student cultures. This paper examines the ways in which Australian screen content and its distribution are beginning to adapt to educational usage. Issues facing content rights holders, distribution companies and emerging digital platforms reflect broad-based digital disruption patterns. Learning opportunities that can coincide with the growth in uptake of Australian screen content in Australia's education sector are not immune to the challenges posed by emerging digital consumption behaviours and issues of sustainability. At the same time, the growth in the use of digital and online screen content learning resources, under current copyright conditions, poses significant increases in the underlying cost structure for educational interests. This paper examines the innovations occurring in both the supply and the demand sides of Australian screen content and the expanded learning opportunities arising out of emerging digital affordances. Precedents in the UK are explored that demonstrate how stronger connections can be forged between nationally produced film and media content and a national curriculum. While addressing recent issues arising out of the Australian Law Review Commission's inquiry into copyright in the digital economy, the purpose of this discussion is not to assess policy debates about fair use versus fair dealing. What is clear, however, is that independent research is required that draws upon research-based evidence with an aim to better understanding the needs of the education sector against the transformative shifts taking place in digital-based learning materials and their modes of delivery.

Screen production enquiry: A study of five Australian doctorates

Within Australian universities, doctoral research in screen production is growing significantly. Two recent studies have documented both the scale of this research and inconsistencies in the requirements of the degree. These institutional variations, combined with a lack of clarity around appropriate methodologies for academic research through film and television practice, create challenges for students, supervisors, examiners and the overall development of the discipline. This paper will examine five recent doctorates in screen production practice at five different Australian universities. It will look at the nature of the films made, the research questions the candidates were investigating, the new knowledge claims that were produced and the subsequent impact of the research. The various methodologies used will be given particular attention because they help define the nature of the research where film production is a primary research method.

Disciplining the screen through education: The Royal Commission into the moving picture industry in Australia

In this article, we investigate the complex relationship between concerns about children and young people’s exposure to cinema in 1920s Australia and the use of film in education. In part, the Royal Commission into the Moving Picture Industry in Australia aimed to ‘ascertain the effect and the extent of the power of film upon juveniles’ and Commissioners spoke to educationalists, psychologists, medical professions, police officers and parents to gain insight into the impacts of movies on children. Numerous issues were canvassed in the Commission hearings such as exposure to sexual content, ‘excesses’ in film content, children’s inability to concentrate at school following cinema attendance and the influence of cinema on youth crime. While the Commission ultimately suggested it was parents’ role to police children’s engagements with cinema, it did make recommendations for restricting children’s access to films with inappropriate themes. Meanwhile, the Commission was very positive about film’s educational role stating that ‘the advantage to be gained by the use of the cinematograph as an adjunct to educational methods should be assisted in every possible way by the Commonwealth’. We draw on the Commission’s minutes of evidence, the Commission report and newspaper articles form the 1920s to the 1940s to argue that the Commission provides valuable insight into the beginnings of the use of screen content in formal schooling, both as a resource across the curriculum and as a specific focus of education through film appreciation and, later, broader forms of media education. The article argues debates about screen entertainment and education rehearsed in the Commission are reflected today as parents, concerned citizens and educators ponder the dangers and potential of new media technologies and media content used by children and young people such as video games, social media and interactive content.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

A genome-wide screen for susceptibility loci in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective. To localize the regions containing genes that determine susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. One hundred five white British families with 121 affected sibling pairs with AS were recruited, largely from the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases AS database. A genome-wide linkage screen was undertaken using 254 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers from the Medical Research Council (UK) (MRC) set. The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region was studied more intensively using 5 microsatellites lying within the HLA class III region and HLA-DRB1 typing. The Analyze package was used for 2-point analysis, and GeneHunter for multipoint analysis. Results. When only the MRC set was considered, 11 markers in 7 regions achieved a P value of ≤0.01. The maximum logarithm of odds score obtained was 3.8 (P = 1.4 x 10-5) using marker D6S273, which lies in the HLA class III region. A further marker used in mapping of the MHC class III region achieved a LOD score of 8.1 (P = 1 x 10-9). Nine of 118 affected sibling pairs (7.6%) did not share parental haplotypes identical by descent across the MHC, suggesting that only 31% of the susceptibility to AS is coded by genes linked to the MHC. The maximum non-MHC LOD score obtained was 2.6 (P = 0.0003) for marker D16S422. Conclusion. The results of this study confirm the strong linkage of the MHC with AS, and provide suggestive evidence regarding the presence and location of non-MHC genes influencing susceptibility to the disease.

A new open-pit multi-stage mine production timetabling model for drilling, blasting and excavating operations

This paper proposes a new multi-resource multi-stage mine production timetabling problem for optimising the open-pit drilling, blasting and excavating operations under equipment capacity constraints. The flow process is analysed based on the real-life data from an Australian iron ore mine site. The objective of the model is to maximise the throughput and minimise the total idle times of equipment at each stage. The following comprehensive mining attributes and constraints are considered: types of equipment; operating capacities of equipment; ready times of equipment; speeds of equipment; block-sequence-dependent movement times; equipment-assignment-dependent operational times; etc. The model also provides the availability and usage of equipment units at multiple operational stages such as drilling, blasting and excavating stages. The problem is formulated by mixed integer programming and solved by ILOG-CPLEX optimiser. The proposed model is validated with extensive computational experiments to improve mine production efficiency at the operational level.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation

Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally observed intercellular variability of rabbit ventricular action potential repolarisation.

Estimates on the coverage of parameter space using populations of models

In this paper we provide estimates for the coverage of parameter space when using Latin Hypercube Sampling, which forms the basis of building so-called populations of models. The estimates are obtained using combinatorial counting arguments to determine how many trials, k, are needed in order to obtain specified parameter space coverage for a given value of the discretisation size n. In the case of two dimensions, we show that if the ratio (Ø) of trials to discretisation size is greater than 1, then as n becomes moderately large the fractional coverage behaves as 1-exp-ø. We compare these estimates with simulation results obtained from an implementation of Latin Hypercube Sampling using MATLAB.

An anticipative reactive control strategy to deal with unforeseen obstacles during a multi-sensor-based navigation task

We address the problem of the rangefinder-based avoidance of unforeseen static obstacles during a visual navigation task. We extend previous strategies which are efficient in most cases but remain still hampered by some drawbacks (e.g., risks of collisions or of local minima in some particular cases, etc.). The key idea is to complete the control strategy by adding a controller providing the robot some anticipative skills to guarantee non collision and by defining more general transition conditions to deal with local minima. Simulation results show the proposed strategy efficiency.