Learning Analytics: Challenges and Future Research Directions

In recent years, learning analytics (LA) has attracted a great deal of attention in technology-enhanced learning (TEL) research as practitioners, institutions, and researchers are increasingly seeing the potential that LA has to shape the future TEL landscape. Generally, LA deals with the development of methods that harness educational data sets to support the learning process. This paper provides a foundation for future research in LA. It provides a systematic overview on this emerging field and its key concepts through a reference model for LA based on four dimensions, namely data, environments, context (what?), stakeholders (who?), objectives (why?), and methods (how?). It further identifies various challenges and research opportunities in the area of LA in relation to each dimension.

Human-environment interactions in pre-Columbian Amazonia: The case of the Llanos de Moxos, Bolivia

The reconstruction of past environmental and historical events is much needed in Amazonia, a region at the centre of heated debates about the extent of pre-Columbian human disturbance of the natural ecosystems. Important aspects of this debate are to establish to what extent the rise of social complexity was influenced by the local geo-ecology; and what productive strategies were adopted in order to sustain these societies. The Llanos de Moxos (LM), in the Bolivian Amazon, is a vast floodplain made up of a variety of geo-ecological sub regions that host many different types of pre-Columbian earthworks. Therefore, it offers an excellent opportunity to compare different kinds of archaeological landscapes and their relationship to different pre-Columbian cultures and environmental settings. This paper analyses the links between pre-Columbian earthworks and the local geo-ecology in two regions of the LM: 1) the platform field region (PFR) in the north of Santa Ana de Yacuma, where the highest concentration of raised fields has been documented, and 2) the monumental mounds region (MMR) south and east of Trinidad, where >100 pre-Columbian monumental mounds are found. The study draws from remote sensing and GIS analysis, field work in the Bolivian lowlands, and laboratory analysis. Differences in the way people transformed the landscape in the PFR and MMR seem to respond to differences in the local geo-ecology of the two sites. The results also suggest that environmental conditions exerted an important, though not exclusive, control over the levels of social complexity that were reached in different areas of the LM.

Early and Middle Holocene Hunter-Gatherer Occupations in Western Amazonia: The Hidden Shell Middens

We report on previously unknown early archaeological sites in the Bolivian lowlands, demonstrating for the first time early and middle Holocene human presence in western Amazonia. Multidisciplinary research in forest islands situated in seasonally-inundated savannahs has revealed stratified shell middens produced by human foragers as early as 10,000 years ago, making them the oldest archaeological sites in the region. The absence of stone resources and partial burial by recent alluvial sediments has meant that these kinds of deposits have, until now, remained unidentified. We conducted core sampling, archaeological excavations and an interdisciplinary study of the stratigraphy and recovered materials from three shell midden mounds. Based on multiple lines of evidence, including radiocarbon dating, sedimentary proxies (elements, steroids and black carbon), micromorphology and faunal analysis, we demonstrate the anthropogenic origin and antiquity of these sites. In a tropical and geomorphologically active landscape often considered challenging both for early human occupation and for the preservation of hunter-gatherer sites, the newly discovered shell middens provide evidence for early to middle Holocene occupation and illustrate the potential for identifying and interpreting early open-air archaeological sites in western Amazonia. The existence of early hunter-gatherer sites in the Bolivian lowlands sheds new light on the region’s past and offers a new context within which the late Holocene “Earthmovers” of the Llanos de Moxos could have emerged.

Long-term outcome of the unrestricted use of everolimus-eluting stents compared to sirolimus-eluting stents and paclitaxel-eluting stents in diabetic patients: The Bern–Rotterdam diabetes cohort study

BACKGROUND Newer generation everolimus-eluting stents (EES) improve clinical outcome compared to early generation sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) and paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES). We investigated whether the advantage in safety and efficacy also holds among the high-risk population of diabetic patients during long-term follow-up. METHODS Between 2002 and 2009, a total of 1963 consecutive diabetic patients treated with the unrestricted use of EES (n=804), SES (n=612) and PES (n=547) were followed throughout three years for the occurrence of cardiac events at two academic institutions. The primary end point was the occurrence of definite stent thrombosis. RESULTS The primary outcome occurred in 1.0% of EES, 3.7% of SES and 3.8% of PES treated patients ([EES vs. SES] adjusted HR=0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.88; [EES vs. PES] adjusted HR=0.29, 95% CI 0.13-0.67). Similarly, patients treated with EES had a lower risk of target-lesion revascularization (TLR) compared to patients treated with SES and PES ([EES vs. SES], 5.6% vs. 11.5%, adjusted HR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.55-0.83; [EES vs. PES], 5.6% vs. 11.3%, adjusted HR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.33-0.77). There were no differences in other safety end points, such as all-cause mortality, cardiac mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and MACE. CONCLUSION In diabetic patients, the unrestricted use of EES appears to be associated with improved outcomes, specifically a significant decrease in the need for TLR and ST compared to early generation SES and PES throughout 3-year follow-up.

Cement-augmented anterior screw fixation of Type II odontoid fractures in elderly patients with osteoporosis

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Closed reduction and internal fixation by an anterior approach is an established option for operative treatment of displaced Type II odontoid fractures. In elderly patients, however, inadequate screw purchase in osteoporotic bone can result in severe procedure-related complications. PURPOSE: To improve the stability of odontoid fracture screw fixation in the elderly using a new technique that includes injection of polymethylmethacrylat (PMMA) cement into the C2 body. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of hospital and outpatient records as well as radiographs of elderly patients treated in a university hospital department of orthopedic surgery. PATIENT SAMPLE: Twenty-four elderly patients (8 males and 16 females; mean age, 81 years; range, 62-98 years) with Type II fractures of the dens. OUTCOME MEASURES: Complications, cement leakage (symptomatic/asymptomatic), operation time, loss of reduction, pseudarthrosis and revision surgery, patient complaints, return to normal activities, and signs of neurologic complications were all documented. METHODS: After closed reduction and anterior approach to the inferior border of C2, a guide wire is advanced to the tip of the odontoid under biplanar fluoroscopic control. Before the insertion of one cannulated, self-drilling, short thread screws, a 12 gauge Yamshidi cannula is inserted from anterior and 1 to 3 mL of high-viscosity PMMA cement is injected into the anteroinferior portion of the C2 body. During polymerization of the cement, the screws are further inserted using a lag-screw compression technique. The cervical spine then is immobilized with a soft collar for 8 weeks postoperatively. RESULTS: Anatomical reduction of the dens was achieved in all 24 patients. Mean operative time was 64 minutes (40-90 minutes). Early loss of reduction occurred in three patients, but revision surgery was indicated in only one patient 2 days after primary surgery. One patient died within the first eight postoperative weeks, one within 3 months after surgery. In five patients, asymptomatic cement leakage was observed (into the C1-C2 joint in three patients, into the fracture in two). Conventional radiologic follow-up at 2 and 6 months confirmed anatomical healing in 16 of the19 patients with complete follow-up. In two patients, the fractures healed in slight dorsal angulation; one patient developed a asymptomatic pseudarthrosis. All patients were able to resume their pretrauma level of activity. CONCLUSIONS: Cement augmentation of the screw in Type II odontoid fractures in elderly patients is technically feasible in a clinical setting with a low complication rate. This technique may improve screw purchase, especially in the osteoporotic C2 body.

Egalitarianism under Earmark Constraints

Agents with single-peaked preferences share a resource coming from different suppliers; each agent is connected to only a subset of suppliers. Examples include workload balancing, sharing earmarked funds, and rationing utilities after a storm. Unlike in the one supplier model, in a Pareto optimal allocation agents who get more than their peak from underdemanded suppliers, coexist with agents who get less from overdemanded suppliers. Our Egalitarian solution is the Lorenz dominant Pareto optimal allocation. It treats agents with equal demands as equally as the connectivity constraints allow. Together, Strategyproofness, Pareto Optimality, and Equal Treatment of Equals, characterize our solution.

Impact of stent overlap on long-term clinical outcomes in patients treated with newer-generation drug-eluting stents

Aims: Early-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) overlap (OL) is associated with impaired long-term clinical outcomes whereas the impact of OL with newer-generation DES is unknown. Our aim was to assess the impact of OL on long-term clinical outcomes among patients treated with newer-generation DES. Methods and results: We analysed the three-year clinical outcomes of 3,133 patients included in a prospective DES registry according to stent type (sirolimus-eluting stents [SES; N=1,532] versus everolimus-eluting stents [EES; N=1,601]), and the presence or absence of OL. The primary outcome was a composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), and target vessel revascularisation (TVR). The primary endpoint was more common in patients with OL (25.1%) than in those with multiple DES without OL (20.8%, adj HR=1.46, 95% CI: 1.03-2.09) and patients with a single DES (18.8%, adj HR=1.74, 95% CI: 1.34-2.25, p<0.001) at three years. A stratified analysis by stent type showed a higher risk of the primary outcome in SES with OL (28.7%) compared to other SES groups (without OL: 22.6%, p=0.04; single DES: 17.6%, p<0.001), but not between EES with OL (22.3%) and other EES groups (without OL: 18.5%, p=0.30; single DES: 20.4%, p=0.20). Conclusions: DES overlap is associated with impaired clinical outcomes during long-term follow-up. Compared with SES, EES provide similar clinical outcomes irrespective of DES overlap status.

Dynamic patterns of ventricular remodeling and apoptosis in hearts unloaded by heterotopic transplantation

BACKGROUND Mechanical unloading of failing hearts can trigger functional recovery but results in progressive atrophy and possibly detrimental adaptation. In an unbiased approach, we examined the dynamic effects of unloading duration on molecular markers indicative of myocardial damage, hypothesizing that potential recovery may be improved by optimized unloading time. METHODS Heterotopically transplanted normal rat hearts were harvested at 3, 8, 15, 30, and 60 days. Forty-seven genes were analyzed using TaqMan-based microarray, Western blot, and immunohistochemistry. RESULTS In parallel with marked atrophy (22% to 64% volume loss at 3 respectively 60 days), expression of myosin heavy-chain isoforms (MHC-α/-β) was characteristically switched in a time-dependent manner. Genes involved in tissue remodeling (FGF-2, CTGF, TGFb, IGF-1) were increasingly upregulated with duration of unloading. A distinct pattern was observed for genes involved in generation of contractile force; an indiscriminate early downregulation was followed by a new steady-state below normal. For pro-apoptotic transcripts bax, bnip-3, and cCasp-6 and -9 mRNA levels demonstrated a slight increase up to 30 days unloading with pronunciation at 60 days. Findings regarding cell death were confirmed on the protein level. Proteasome activity indicated early increase of protein degradation but decreased below baseline in unloaded hearts at 60 days. CONCLUSIONS We identified incrementally increased apoptosis after myocardial unloading of the normal rat heart, which is exacerbated at late time points (60 days) and inversely related to loss of myocardial mass. Our findings suggest an irreversible detrimental effect of long-term unloading on myocardium that may be precluded by partial reloading and amenable to molecular therapeutic intervention.

Early troponin T and prediction of potentially correctable in-hospital complications after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery

BACKGROUND Peak levels of troponin T (TnT) reliably predict morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. However, the therapeutic window to manage CABG-related in-hospital complications may close before the peak is reached. We investigated whether early TnT levels correlate as well with complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS A 12 month consecutive series of patients undergoing elective isolated CABG procedures (mini-extra-corporeal circuit, Cardioplegic arrest) was analyzed. Logistic regression modeling was used to investigate whether TnT levels 6 to 8 hours after surgery were independently associated with in-hospital complications (either post-operative myocardial infarction, stroke, new-onset renal insufficiency, intensive care unit (ICU) readmission, prolonged ICU stay (>48 hours), prolonged need for vasopressors (>24 hours), resuscitation or death). RESULTS A total of 290 patients, including 36 patients with complications, was analyzed. Early TnT levels (odds ratio (OR): 6.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.2-21.4, P=.001), logistic EuroSCORE (OR: 1.2, 95%CI: 1.0-1.3, P=.007) and the need for vasopressors during the first 6 postoperative hours (OR: 2.7, 95%CI: 1.0-7.1, P=.05) were independently associated with the risk of complications. With consideration of vasopressor use during the first 6 postoperative hours, the sum of specificity (0.958) and sensitivity (0.417) of TnT for subsequent complications was highest at a TnT cut-off value of 0.8 ng/mL. CONCLUSION Early TnT levels may be useful to guide ICU management of CABG patients. They predict clinically relevant complications within a potential therapeutic window, particularly in patients requiring vasopressors during the first postoperative hours, although with only moderate sensitivity.

A Physiological Controller for Turbodynamic Ventricular Assist Devices Based on a Measurement of the Left Ventricular Volume

The current article presents a novel physiological control algorithm for ventricular assist devices (VADs), which is inspired by the preload recruitable stroke work. This controller adapts the hydraulic power output of the VAD to the end-diastolic volume of the left ventricle. We tested this controller on a hybrid mock circulation where the left ventricular volume (LVV) is known, i.e., the problem of measuring the LVV is not addressed in the current article. Experiments were conducted to compare the response of the controller with the physiological and with the pathological circulation, with and without VAD support. A sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the influence of the controller parameters and the influence of the quality of the LVV signal on the performance of the control algorithm. The results show that the controller induces a response similar to the physiological circulation and effectively prevents over- and underpumping, i.e., ventricular suction and backflow from the aorta to the left ventricle, respectively. The same results are obtained in the case of a disturbed LVV signal. The results presented in the current article motivate the development of a robust, long-term stable sensor to measure the LVV.

Comparison of Newer-Generation Drug-Eluting With Bare-Metal Stents in Patients With Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Pooled Analysis of the EXAMINATION (clinical Evaluation of the Xience-V stent in Acute Myocardial INfArcTION) and COMFORTABLE-AMI (Comparison of Biolimus Eluted From an Erodible Stent Coating With Bare Metal Stents in Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction) Trials

OBJECTIVES This study sought to study the efficacy and safety of newer-generation drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in an appropriately powered population of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). BACKGROUND Among patients with STEMI, early generation DES improved efficacy but not safety compared with BMS. Newer-generation DES, everolimus-eluting stents, and biolimus A9-eluting stents, have been shown to improve clinical outcomes compared with early generation DES. METHODS Individual patient data for 2,665 STEMI patients enrolled in 2 large-scale randomized clinical trials comparing newer-generation DES with BMS were pooled: 1,326 patients received a newer-generation DES (everolimus-eluting stent or biolimus A9-eluting stent), whereas the remaining 1,329 patients received a BMS. Random-effects models were used to assess differences between the 2 groups for the device-oriented composite endpoint of cardiac death, target-vessel reinfarction, and target-lesion revascularization and the patient-oriented composite endpoint of all-cause death, any infarction, and any revascularization at 1 year. RESULTS Newer-generation DES substantially reduce the risk of the device-oriented composite endpoint compared with BMS at 1 year (relative risk [RR]: 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43 to 0.79; p = 0.0004). Similarly, the risk of the patient-oriented composite endpoint was lower with newer-generation DES than BMS (RR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.96; p = 0.02). Differences in favor of newer-generation DES were driven by both a lower risk of repeat revascularization of the target lesion (RR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.52; p < 0.0001) and a lower risk of target-vessel infarction (RR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.92; p = 0.03). Newer-generation DES also reduced the risk of definite stent thrombosis (RR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.16 to 0.75; p = 0.006) compared with BMS. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with STEMI, newer-generation DES improve safety and efficacy compared with BMS throughout 1 year. It remains to be determined whether the differences in favor of newer-generation DES are sustained during long-term follow-up.

Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Coronary evaginations are associated with positive vessel remodelling and are nearly absent following implantation of newer-generation drug-eluting stents: an optical coherence tomography and intravascular ultrasound study

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to assess the occurrence, predictors, and mechanisms of optical coherence tomography (OCT)-detected coronary evaginations following drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. BACKGROUND Angiographic ectasias and aneurysms in stented segments have been associated with a risk of late stent thrombosis. Using OCT, some stented segments show coronary evaginations reminiscent of ectasias. METHODS Evaginations were defined as outward bulges in the luminal contour between struts. They were considered major evaginations (MEs) when extending ≥3 mm along the vessel length, with a depth ≥10% of the stent diameter. A total of 228 patients who had sirolimus (SES)-, paclitaxel-, biolimus-, everolimus (EES)-, or zotarolimus (ZES)-eluting stents implanted in 254 lesions, were analysed after 1, 2, or 5 years; and serial assessment using OCT and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) was performed post-intervention and after 1 year in 42 patients. RESULTS Major evaginations occurred frequently at all time points in SES (∼26%) and were rarely seen in EES (3%) and ZES (2%, P = 0.003). Sirolimus-eluting stent implantation was the strongest independent predictor of ME [adjusted OR (95% CI) 9.1 (1.1-77.4), P = 0.008]. Malapposed and uncovered struts were more common in lesions with vs. without ME (77 vs. 25%, P < 0.001 and 95 vs. 20%, P < 0.001, respectively) as was thrombus [49 vs. 14%, OR 7.3 (95% CI: 1.7-31.2), P = 0.007]. Post-intervention intra-stent dissection and protrusion of the vessel wall into the lumen were associated with an increased risk of evagination at follow-up [OR (95% CI): 2.9 (1.8-4.9), P < 0.001 and 3.3 (1.6-6.9), P = 0.001, respectively]. In paired IVUS analyses, lesions with ME showed a larger increase in the external elastic membrane area (20% area change) compared with lesions without ME (5% area change, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Optical coherence tomography-detected MEs are a specific morphological footprint of early-generation SES and are nearly absent in newer-generation ZES and EES. Evaginations appear to be related to vessel injury at baseline; are associated with positive vessel remodelling; and correlate with uncoverage, malapposition, and thrombus at follow-up.

Long-term comparison of everolimus-eluting stents with sirolimus- and paclitaxel-eluting stents for percutaneous coronary intervention of saphenous vein grafts

Aims: Newer-generation everolimus-eluting stents (EES) have been shown to improve clinical outcomes compared with early-generation sirolimus-eluting (SES) and paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Whether this benefit is maintained among patients with saphenous vein graft (SVG) disease remains controversial. Methods and results: We assessed cumulative incidence rates (CIR) per 100 patient years after inverse probability of treatment weighting to compare clinical outcomes. The pre-specified primary endpoint was the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), and target vessel revascularisation (TVR). Out of 12,339 consecutively treated patients, 288 patients (5.7%) underwent PCI of at least one SVG lesion with EES (n=127), SES (n=103) or PES (n=58). Up to four years, CIR of the primary endpoint were 58.7 for EES, 45.2 for SES and 45.6 for PES with similar adjusted risks between groups (EES vs. SES; HR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.55-1.60, EES vs. PES; HR 1.07, 95% CI: 0.60-1.91). Adjusted risks showed no significant differences between stent types for cardiac death, MI and TVR. Conclusions: Among patients undergoing PCI for SVG lesions, newer-generation EES have similar safety and efficacy to early-generation SES and PES during long-term follow-up to four years.

Mid-term results of transphyseal anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in children and adolescents

BACKGROUND Optimal therapy for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture in the paediatric population still provokes controversy. Although conservative and operative treatments are both applied, operative therapy is slightly favored. Among available surgical techniques are physeal-sparing reconstruction and transphyseal graft fixation. The aim of this study was to present our mid-term results after transphyseal ACL reconstruction. METHODS Fifteen young patients (mean age=12.8±2.6, range=6.2-15.8years, Tanner stage=2-4) with open physis and traumatic anterior cruciate rupture who had undergone transphyseal ACL reconstruction with unilateral quadriceps tendon graft were prospectively analyzed. All children were submitted to radiological evaluation to determine the presence of clearly open growth plates in both the distal femur and proximal tibia. Postoperatively, all patients were treated according to a standardized rehabilitation protocol and evaluated by radiographic analysis and the Lysholm-Gillquist and IKDC 2000 scores. Their health-related quality of life was measured using the SF-12 PCS (physical component summary) and MCS (mental component summary) questionnaires. RESULTS Mean postoperative follow-up was 4.1years. Mean Lysholm-Gillquist score was 94.0. Thirteen of the 15 knees were considered nearly normal on the IKDC 2000 score. The mean SF-12 questionnaire score was 54.0±4.8 for SF-12 PCS and 59.1±3.7 for SF-12 MCS. No reruptures were observed. Radiological analysis detected one knee with valgus deformity. All patients had a normal gait pattern without restrictions. CONCLUSION Transphyseal reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament shows satisfactory mid-term results in the immature patient.