897 resultados para Logistic Curve
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Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.
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Objective To examine the risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTI) among Greenlandic children for the purpose of identifying those at highest risk of infection. Methods Between 2005 and 2007, 1797 Greenlandic schoolchildren in five different areas were tested for MTI with an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and a tuberculin skin test (TST). Parents or guardians were surveyed using a standardized self-administered questionnaire to obtain data on crowding in the household, parents’ educational level and the child’s health status. Demographic data for each child – i.e. parents’ place of birth, number of siblings, distance between siblings (next younger and next older), birth order and mother’s age when the child was born – were also extracted from a public registry. Logistic regression was used to check for associations between these variables and MTI, and all results were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Children were considered to have MTI if they tested positive on both the IGRA assay and the TST. Findings The overall prevalence of MTI was 8.5% (152/1797). MTI was diagnosed in 26.7% of the children with a known TB contact, as opposed to 6.4% of the children without such contact. Overall, the MTI rate was higher among Inuit children (OR: 4.22; 95% CI: 1.55–11.5) and among children born less than one year after the birth of the next older sibling (OR: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.33–4.63). Self-reported TB contact modified the profile to include household crowding and low mother’s education. Children who had an older MTI-positive sibling were much more likely to test positive for MTI themselves (OR: 14.2; 95% CI: 5.75–35.0) than children without an infected older sibling. Conclusion Ethnicity, sibling relations, number of household residents and maternal level of education are factors associated with the risk of TB infection among children in Greenland. The strong household clustering of MTI suggests that family sources of exposure are important.
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Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.
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Abstract Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is ubiquitous in sub-Saharan Africa, but paradoxically gastric cancer is rare. Methods: Sera collected during a household-based survey in rural Tanzania in 1985 were tested for anti-H. pylori IgG and IgG subclass antibodies by enzyme immunoassay. Odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) of association of seropositivity with demographic variables were computed by logistic regression models. Results: Of 788 participants, 513 were aged ≤17 years. H. pylori seropositivity increased from 76% at 0–4 years to 99% by ≥18 years of age. Seropositivity was associated with age (OR 11.5, 95% CI 4.2–31.4 for 10–17 vs. 0–4 years), higher birth-order (11.1; 3.6–34.1 for ≥3rd vs. 1st born), and having a seropositive next-older sibling (2.7; 0.9–8.3). Median values of IgG subclass were 7.2 for IgG1 and 2.0 for IgG2. The median IgG1/IgG2 ratio was 3.1 (IQR: 1.7–5.6), consistent with a Th2- dominant immune profile. Th2-dominant response was more frequent in children than adults (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3–4.4). Conclusion: H. pylori seropositivity was highly prevalent in Tanzania and the immunological response was Th2-dominant. Th2-dominant immune response, possibly caused by concurrent bacterial or parasitic infections, could explain, in part, the lower risk of H. pylori-associated gastric cancer in Africa.
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In recent times, light gauge steel framed (LSF) structures, such as cold-formed steel wall systems, are increasingly used, but without a full understanding of their fire performance. Traditionally the fire resistance rating of these load-bearing LSF wall systems is based on approximate prescriptive methods developed based on limited fire tests. Very often they are limited to standard wall configurations used by the industry. Increased fire rating is provided simply by adding more plasterboards to these walls. This is not an acceptable situation as it not only inhibits innovation and structural and cost efficiencies but also casts doubt over the fire safety of these wall systems. Hence a detailed fire research study into the performance of LSF wall systems was undertaken using full scale fire tests and extensive numerical studies. A new composite wall panel developed at QUT was also considered in this study, where the insulation was used externally between the plasterboards on both sides of the steel wall frame instead of locating it in the cavity. Three full scale fire tests of LSF wall systems built using the new composite panel system were undertaken at a higher load ratio using a gas furnace designed to deliver heat in accordance with the standard time temperature curve in AS 1530.4 (SA, 2005). Fire tests included the measurements of load-deformation characteristics of LSF walls until failure as well as associated time-temperature measurements across the thickness and along the length of all the specimens. Tests of LSF walls under axial compression load have shown the improvement to their fire performance and fire resistance rating when the new composite panel was used. Hence this research recommends the use of the new composite panel system for cold-formed LSF walls. The numerical study was undertaken using a finite element program ABAQUS. The finite element analyses were conducted under both steady state and transient state conditions using the measured hot and cold flange temperature distributions from the fire tests. The elevated temperature reduction factors for mechanical properties were based on the equations proposed by Dolamune Kankanamge and Mahendran (2011). These finite element models were first validated by comparing their results with experimental test results from this study and Kolarkar (2010). The developed finite element models were able to predict the failure times within 5 minutes. The validated model was then used in a detailed numerical study into the strength of cold-formed thin-walled steel channels used in both the conventional and the new composite panel systems to increase the understanding of their behaviour under nonuniform elevated temperature conditions and to develop fire design rules. The measured time-temperature distributions obtained from the fire tests were used. Since the fire tests showed that the plasterboards provided sufficient lateral restraint until the failure of LSF wall panels, this assumption was also used in the analyses and was further validated by comparison with experimental results. Hence in this study of LSF wall studs, only the flexural buckling about the major axis and local buckling were considered. A new fire design method was proposed using AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005), NAS (AISI, 2007) and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 (ECS, 2006). The importance of considering thermal bowing, magnified thermal bowing and neutral axis shift in the fire design was also investigated. A spread sheet based design tool was developed based on the above design codes to predict the failure load ratio versus time and temperature for varying LSF wall configurations including insulations. Idealised time-temperature profiles were developed based on the measured temperature values of the studs. This was used in a detailed numerical study to fully understand the structural behaviour of LSF wall panels. Appropriate equations were proposed to find the critical temperatures for different composite panels, varying in steel thickness, steel grade and screw spacing for any load ratio. Hence useful and simple design rules were proposed based on the current cold-formed steel structures and fire design standards, and their accuracy and advantages were discussed. The results were also used to validate the fire design rules developed based on AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) and Eurocode Part 1.3 (ECS, 2006). This demonstrated the significant improvements to the design method when compared to the currently used prescriptive design methods for LSF wall systems under fire conditions. In summary, this research has developed comprehensive experimental and numerical thermal and structural performance data for both the conventional and the proposed new load bearing LSF wall systems under standard fire conditions. Finite element models were developed to predict the failure times of LSF walls accurately. Idealized hot flange temperature profiles were developed for non-insulated, cavity and externally insulated load bearing wall systems. Suitable fire design rules and spread sheet based design tools were developed based on the existing standards to predict the ultimate failure load, failure times and failure temperatures of LSF wall studs. Simplified equations were proposed to find the critical temperatures for varying wall panel configurations and load ratios. The results from this research are useful to both structural and fire engineers and researchers. Most importantly, this research has significantly improved the knowledge and understanding of cold-formed LSF loadbearing walls under standard fire conditions.
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Cognitive obstacles that arise in the teaching and learning of scalar line integrals, derived from cognitive aids provided to students when first learning about integration of single variable functions are described. A discussion of how and why the obstacles cause students problems is presented and possible strategies to overcome the obstacles are outlined.
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Serving as a powerful tool for extracting localized variations in non-stationary signals, applications of wavelet transforms (WTs) in traffic engineering have been introduced; however, lacking in some important theoretical fundamentals. In particular, there is little guidance provided on selecting an appropriate WT across potential transport applications. This research described in this paper contributes uniquely to the literature by first describing a numerical experiment to demonstrate the shortcomings of commonly-used data processing techniques in traffic engineering (i.e., averaging, moving averaging, second-order difference, oblique cumulative curve, and short-time Fourier transform). It then mathematically describes WT’s ability to detect singularities in traffic data. Next, selecting a suitable WT for a particular research topic in traffic engineering is discussed in detail by objectively and quantitatively comparing candidate wavelets’ performances using a numerical experiment. Finally, based on several case studies using both loop detector data and vehicle trajectories, it is shown that selecting a suitable wavelet largely depends on the specific research topic, and that the Mexican hat wavelet generally gives a satisfactory performance in detecting singularities in traffic and vehicular data.
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The accuracy of measurement of mechanical properties of a material using instrumented nanoindentation at extremely small penetration depths heavily relies on the determination of the contact area of the indenter. Our experiments have demonstrated that the conventional area function could lead to a significant error when the contact depth was below 40. nm, due to the singularity in the first derivation of the function in this region and thus, the resultant unreasonable sharp peak on the function curve. In this paper, we proposed a new area function that was used to calculate the contact area for the indentations where the contact depths varied from 10 to 40. nm. The experimental results have shown that the new area function has produced better results than the conventional function. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times
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Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.
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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.
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Background: During December 2010 and January 2011, torrential rainfall in Queensland resulted in the worst flooding in over 50 years. We carried out a community-based survey to assess the health impacts of this flooding in the city of Brisbane. Methods: A community-based survey was conducted in 12 flood-affected electorates using postal questionnaires. A random sample of residents in these areas was drawn from electoral rolls. Questions examined sociodemographic information, the direct impact of flooding on the household, and perceived flood-related health impacts. Outcome variables included perceived flood-related effects on overall and respiratory health, along with mental health outcomes measured by psychosocial distress, reduced sleep quality and probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and socioeconomic factors. Results: 3000 residents were invited to participate in this survey, with 960 responses (32%). People whose households were directly impacted by flooding had a decrease in perceived overall health (OR 5.3, 95% CI: 2.8–10.2), along with increases in psychological distress (OR 1.9, 1.1–3.5), decreased sleep quality (OR 2.3, 1.2–4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3, 1.2–4.5). Residents were also more likely to increase usage of both tobacco (OR 6.3, 2.4–16.8) and alcohol (OR 7.0, 2.2–22.3) after flooding. Conclusions: There were significant impacts of flood events on residents’ health, in particular psychosocial health. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood‐related health impacts.
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This paper investigates relationship between traffic conditions and the crash occurrence likelihood (COL) using the I-880 data. To remedy the data limitations and the methodological shortcomings suffered by previous studies, a multiresolution data processing method is proposed and implemented, upon which binary logistic models were developed. The major findings of this paper are: 1) traffic conditions have significant impacts on COL at the study site; Specifically, COL in a congested (transitioning) traffic flow is about 6 (1.6) times of that in a free flow condition; 2)Speed variance alone is not sufficient to capture traffic dynamics’ impact on COL; a traffic chaos indicator that integrates speed, speed variance, and flow is proposed and shows a promising performance; 3) Models based on aggregated data shall be interpreted with caution. Generally, conclusions obtained from such models shall not be generalized to individual vehicles (drivers) without further evidences using high-resolution data and it is dubious to either claim or disclaim speed kills based on aggregated data.
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Background: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three-dimensional deformity, involving a lateral deformity in the coronal plane and axial rotation of the vertebrae in the transverse plane. Gravitational loading plays an important biomechanical role in governing the coronal deformity, however, less is known about how they influence the axial deformity. This study investigates the change in three-dimensional deformity of a series of scoliosis patients due to compressive axial loading. Methods: Magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained and coronal deformity (measured using the coronal Cobb angle) and axial rotations measured for a group of 18 scoliosis patients (Mean major Cobb angle was 43.4 o). Each patient was scanned in an unloaded and loaded condition while compressive loads equivalent to 50% body mass were applied using a custom developed compressive device. Findings: The mean increase in major Cobb angle due to compressive loading was 7.4 o (SD 3.5 o). The most axially rotated vertebra was observed at the apex of the structural curve and the largest average intravertebral rotations were observed toward the limits of the coronal deformity. A level-wise comparison showed no significant difference between the average loaded and unloaded vertebral axial rotations (intra-observer error = 2.56 o) or intravertebral rotations at each spinal level. Interpretation: This study suggests that the biomechanical effects of axial loading primarily influence the coronal deformity, with no significant change in vertebral axial rotation or intravertebral rotation observed between the unloaded and loaded condition. However, the magnitude of changes in vertebral rotation with compressive loading may have been too small to detect given the resolution of the current technique.
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Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.
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With the continued development of renewable energy generation technologies and increasing pressure to combat the global effects of greenhouse warming, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have received worldwide attention, finding applications in North America and Europe. When a large number of PHEVs are introduced into a power system, there will be extensive impacts on power system planning and operation, as well as on electricity market development. It is therefore necessary to properly control PHEV charging and discharging behaviors. Given this background, a new unit commitment model and its solution method that takes into account the optimal PHEV charging and discharging controls is presented in this paper. A 10-unit and 24-hour unit commitment (UC) problem is employed to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the developed method, and the impacts of the wide applications of PHEVs on the operating costs and the emission of the power system are studied. Case studies are also carried out to investigate the impacts of different PHEV penetration levels and different PHEV charging modes on the results of the UC problem. A 100-unit system is employed for further analysis on the impacts of PHEVs on the UC problem in a larger system application. Simulation results demonstrate that the employment of optimized PHEV charging and discharging modes is very helpful for smoothing the load curve profile and enhancing the ability of the power system to accommodate more PHEVs. Furthermore, an optimal Vehicle to Grid (V2G) discharging control provides economic and efficient backups and spinning reserves for the secure and economic operation of the power system