A Conceptual Foresight Model to Investigate the Adoption of Radio Frequency Identification Technology in the English National Health Service

Radio Frequency Identification Technology (RFID) adoption in healthcare settings has the potential to reduce errors, improve patient safety, streamline operational processes and enable the sharing of information throughout supply chains. RFID adoption in the English NHS is limited to isolated pilot studies. Firstly, this study investigates the drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption in the English NHS from the perspective of the GS1 Healthcare User Group (HUG) tasked with coordinating adoption across private and public sectors. Secondly a conceptual model has been developed and deployed, combining two of foresight’s most popular methods; scenario planning and technology roadmapping. The model addresses the weaknesses of each foresight technique as well as capitalizing on their individual, inherent strengths. Semi structured interviews, scenario planning workshops and a technology roadmapping exercise were conducted with the members of the HUG over an 18-month period. An action research mode of enquiry was utilized with a thematic analysis approach for the identification and discussion of the drivers and inhibitors of RFID adoption. The results of the conceptual model are analysed in comparison to other similar models. There are implications for managers responsible for RFID adoption in both the NHS and its commercial partners, and for foresight practitioners. Managers can leverage the insights gained from identifying the drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption by making efforts to influence the removal of inhibitors and supporting the continuation of the drivers. The academic contribution of this aspect of the thesis is in the field of RFID adoption in healthcare settings. Drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption in the English NHS are compared to those found in other settings. The implication for technology foresight practitioners is a proof of concept of a model combining scenario planning and technology roadmapping using a novel process. The academic contribution to the field of technology foresight is the conceptual development of foresight model that combines two popular techniques and then a deployment of the conceptual foresight model in a healthcare setting exploring the future of RFID technology.

Az euróövezet bővítése és euróbevezetési stratégiák (Euro-area enlargement and euro adoption strategies)

Tanulmányunk azokat a kockázatokat és kihívásokat vizsgálja, amelyekkel az új EU tagállamok szembesülnek az euróhoz vezető úton, valamint elemzi az euró bevezetésével és a bevezetés időzítésével kapcsolatos stratégiákat is. Megvizsgáljuk a reál- és nominálkonvergencia kapcsolatát az euróövezetbe csatlakozás szemszögéből. Véleményünk szerint a gazdaság egy főre jutó jövedelemben mért kezdeti fejlettségi szintje, valamint a reálkonvergencia sebessége kihatnak a követendő stratégiákra és a belépés időzítésére. Minél alacsonyabb ugyanis egy ország egy főre jutó jövedelme, annál nagyobb az árszínvonalbeli lemaradása (amit be kell hoznia), és az új tagok jelenlegi helyzetét figyelembe véve annál nagyobb a veszélye annak, hogy a hitelek növekedése túlzottá, a gazdaság túlfűtötté válik. Úgy gondoljuk, hogy az inflációkövetés lebegő árfolyam mellett megfelelőbb az árszínvonal felzárkózási folyamatának kezelésére, mint valamilyen merev árfolyamrögzítés. Elemezzük a maastrichti kritériumokat az új EU-tagállamok gazdasági jellemzőinek szempontjából, és az inflációs kritérium módosítását javasoljuk, amely jelenlegi formájában elvesztette közgazdasági értelmét. JEL kód: E31, E52, E60, F30. /===/ This paper commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the EMU@10 project and published in Hungarian by the permission of the EU Commission. The origi-nal English version is available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ publication_summary12103_en.htm. The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by new members on the road to the euro and the strategies and timing of euro adoption. It investigates the real/nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro-area entry, arguing that the initial level of economic development, as measured by per capita income, and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and the timing of entry into the euro area, for the lower per capita income is, the larger is the price-level gap to close and the greater the danger of credit booms and overheating. It is argued argue that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to managing the price-level catch-up process. A suggestion is made for modifying the Maastricht inflation criterion, which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.

The effects of experience in loyalty card adoption on the importance of the attributes of loyalty schemes

The popularity of loyalty programs worldwide shows that this is one of the most efficient marketing tools in highly competitive markets to retain customers. The saturation of loyalty schemes themselves can lead to a fierce competition between firms to gain wider penetration for their cards. The experience of the customers regarding adoption of loyalty programs can affect their attitude towards the different attributes of the programs. We found that more experienced customers evaluate the importance of the soft attributes of the loyalty schemes higher.

Az on-line vásárlás vevői elfogadottsága Magyarországon (Adoption of on-line commerce in Hungary)

A hazai internethasználat terjedésével egyre népszerűbbek az on-line kereskedelmi modellek, egyre több cég kísérli meg, hogy terméket vagy szolgáltatást értékesítsen az interneten. Például az on-line könyvértékesítések és a diszkont légitársaságok jegyeladásai az e-kereskedelem kiugró ágazatai közé tartoznak – ez a hasonlóság adja a tanulmány alapját. Dinamikusan növekvő keresleti igények honorálják az internetes megjelenést, és fordítva: a fogyasztói e-felkészültséget gyakran a kínálati oldal indukálja. A szerzők kutatásukban a hazai internethasználat bemutatásával és fókuszcsoportos beszélgetések révén próbálják meg feltárni, hogy mi minden szükséges ahhoz, hogy valódi alternatívát jelentsen az on-line kereskedelem a vevők számára. Kísérletet tesznek a keresleti oldal átfogó bemutatására, hasonlóságokra és különbségekre fókuszálva, valamint szintén összevetik a kínálati oldal jellemző karaktereit, ezek egyezőségeit és eltéréseit vizsgálva. ______________ With the spreading of Hungarian internet usage online e-commerce models have become more and more popular, more and more companies start to sell products and services via the internet. For instance the on-line book sales and purchase of discount airline tickets belong to the leading branches of e-business and demonstrate that dynamically increasing demand generates supply. In this research first the authors introduces the basic data about internet usage in Hungary. Then, based on a series of focused group discussions they examine what the key customer requirements are to really consider e-commerce as a serious alternative for traditional shopping. They attempt to describe the demand side and juxtapose it with the characteristics of the supply side of Hungarian e-commerce.

Az e-business kooperatív turisztikai adaptációja : "A kicsi, a szép esélyei hazánkban" (The cooperative touristy adoption of e-business: "The chances of small beautiful in Hungary")

A cikk legfontosabb megválaszolandó kérdése: Milyen esélyekkel és milyen szükséges lépésekkel indulhatnak a nemzetközileg kevéssé ismert hazai célállomások és vállalkozásaik a turisztikai piac globális versenyében, melynek egyre jelentősebb színterét az internet adja? A turisztikai piacon az internet piacalakító hatása és az individualista, élmény, és értékközpontú kereslet megjelenése olyan változásokat indított el az elmúlt közel húsz évben, melyek befolyásolva a szereplők erőviszonyait a fejlődés lehetőségét hordozzák a regionális célállomások, a kevéssé ismert desztinációk számára. Mindezen trendek egyúttal kihívást jelentenek, mivel élesítik a versenyt, és megújulásra ösztönzik a globálisan ismert desztinációkat is, valamint számos nehézség megoldására késztetik a több szempontból hátrányban szenvedő vidéki régiókat. A cikkben ismertetendő kutatás célja az, hogy egy best practice-ként ismert osztrák és három hazai eset alapján felderítse azon tényezőket, melyek a desztinációfejlesztés kezdeti lépésétől az e-business sikeres adaptációjához, a desztinációmenedzsment-rendszerek bevezetéséhez és működtetéséhez vezetnek. __________ The main question of the paper: What kind of steps should the Hungarian less-known destinations take to meet the challenges of the global competition increasingly taking place on the internet? The trends of “new tourism” – driven by post-materialistic values –, and the growing role of internet in touristy activity have formed new conditions and changed the balance of forces in the touristy market. These two trends hand in hand have intensified the competition: on the one hand force global destinations to renew, on the other hand give great but challenging possibilities for regional destinations in comparative disadvantage. The aim of the paper is to identify the success-factors of adopting e-business solution called destination management system in the regional, undeveloped areas starting destination management from zero position. For this purpose case studies were examined by analyzing Hungarian regional destinations’ development and making a benchmark analysis through an Austrian best practice.

Earnings management using estimates and the timing of adoption of accounting standards: An empirical examination of pensions

This study investigates the relationship between adoption timing of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 87 and earnings management after adoption. Earnings management, defined consistent with Schipper (1989), is tested through hypotheses using (1) a portfolio approach and (2) pension rates. One Hypothesis uses a Modified Jones (1991) Model as a proxy for discretionary accruals and the other uses pension rate estimates.^ Statistically significant relationships are found between adoption timing and (1) discretionary accruals and (2) estimated rate-of-return (ROR) on pension plan assets. Early adopting firms tend to have lower discretionary accruals after adoption than on-time adopters. They also tend to use higher ROR estimates which are not supported by higher actual returns. Thus, while early adopters may be using ROR to manage income, this tends to not result in higher discretionary accruals. ^

A systems approach to describing the process of individual adoption of IT innovations

Research on the adoption of innovations by individuals has been criticized for focusing on various factors that lead to the adoption or rejection of an innovation while ignoring important aspects of the dynamic process that takes place. Theoretical process-based models hypothesize that individuals go through consecutive stages of information gathering and decision making but do not clearly explain the mechanisms that cause an individual to leave one stage and enter the next one. Research on the dynamics of the adoption process have lacked a structurally formal and quantitative description of the process. ^ This dissertation addresses the adoption process of technological innovations from a Systems Theory perspective and assumes that individuals roam through different, not necessarily consecutive, states, determined by the levels of quantifiable state variables. It is proposed that different levels of these state variables determine the state in which potential adopters are. Various events that alter the levels of these variables can cause individuals to migrate into different states. ^ It was believed that Systems Theory could provide the required infrastructure to model the innovation adoption process, particularly applied to information technologies, in a formal, structured fashion. This dissertation assumed that an individual progressing through an adoption process could be considered a system, where the occurrence of different events affect the system's overall behavior and ultimately the adoption outcome. The research effort aimed at identifying the various states of such system and the significant events that could lead the system from one state to another. By mapping these attributes onto an “innovation adoption state space” the adoption process could be fully modeled and used to assess the status, history, and possible outcomes of a specific adoption process. ^ A group of Executive MBA students were observed as they adopted Internet-based technological innovations. The data collected were used to identify clusters in the values of the state variables and consequently define significant system states. Additionally, events were identified across the student sample that systematically moved the system from one state to another. The compilation of identified states and change-related events enabled the definition of an innovation adoption state-space model. ^

The adoption of retail electronic commerce: An empirical investigation

The purpose of this study was to empirically investigate the adoption of retail electronic commerce (REC). REC is a business transaction which takes place over the Internet between a casual consumer and a firm. The consumer has no long-term relationship with the firm, orders a good or service, and pays with a credit card. To date, most REC applications have not been profitable. To build profitable REC applications a better understanding of the system's users is required. ^ The research model hypothesizes that the level of REC buying is dependent upon the Buying Characteristics of Internet Use and Search Experience plus the Channel Characteristics of Beliefs About Internet Vendors and Beliefs About Internet Security. The effect of these factors is modified by Time. Additional research questions ask about the different types of REC buyers, the differences between these groups, and how these groups evolved over time. ^ To answer these research questions I analyzed publicly available data collected over a three-year period by the Georgia Institute of Technology Graphics and Visualization Unit over the Internet. Findings indicate the model best predicts Number of Purchases in a future period, and that Buyer Characteristics are most important to this determination. Further, this model is evolving over Time making Buyer Characteristics predict Number of Purchases better in more recent survey administrations. Buyers clustered into five groups based on level of buying and move through various levels and buy increasing Number of Purchases over time. ^ This is the first large scale research project to investigate the evolution of REC. This implications are significant. Practitioners with casual consumer customers need to deploy a finely tuned REC strategy, understand their buyers, capitalize on the company reputation on the Internet, install an Internet-compatible infrastructure, and web-enable order-entry/inventory/fulliment/shipping applications. Researchers might wish to expand on the Buyer Characteristics of the model and/or explore alternative dependent variables. Further, alternative theories such as Population Ecology or Transaction Cost Economics might further illuminate this new I.S. research domain. ^

Examining Technology Adoption and Management Perception of Inventory Management Systems: The Case of Aruba Restaurants

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of automated inventory management systems (IMS) and identify the stage of technology adoption for restaurants in Aruba. A case study analysis involving twelve members of the Aruba Gastronomic Association was conducted using a qualitative research design to gather information on approaches currently used as well as the reasons and perceptions managers/owners have for using or not using automated systems in their facilities. This is the first study conducted using the Aruba restaurant market. Therefore, the application of two technology adoption models was used to integrate critical factors relevant to the study. Major findings indicated the use of an automated IMS in restaurants is limited, thus underscoring the lack of adoption of technology in this area. The results also indicated that two major reasons that restaurants are not adopting IMS technology are budgetary constraints and service support. This study is imperative for two reasons: (1) the results of this study can be used as a comparison for future IMS adoption, not only for Aruba’s restaurant industry but also for other Caribbean destinations and the U.S., (2) this study also provides insight into the additional training and support help needed in hospitality technology services.

AIDS workplace *policy adoption and implementation in local government: An analysis of departmental variation

This is an empirical study whose purpose was to examine the process of innovation adoption as an adaptive response by a public organization and its subunits existing under varying degrees of environmental uncertainty. Meshing organization innovation research and contingency theory to form a theoretical framework, an exploratory case study design was undertaken in a large, metropolitan government located in an area with the fourth highest prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the country. A number of environmental and organizational factors were examined for their influence upon decision making in the adoption/non-adoption as well as implementation of any number of AIDS-related policies, practices, and programs.^ The major findings of the study are as follows. For the county government itself (macro level), no AIDS-specific workplace policies have been adopted. AIDS activities (AIDS education, AIDS Task Force, AIDS Coordinator, etc.), adopted county-wide early in the epidemic, have all been abandoned. Worker infection rates, in the aggregate and throughout the epidemic have been small. As a result, absent co-worker conflict (isolated and negligible), no increase in employee health care costs, no litigation regarding discrimination, and no major impact on workforce productivity, AIDS has basically become a non-issue at the strategic core of the organization. At the departmental level, policy adoption decisions varied widely. Here the predominant issue is occupational risk, i.e., both objective as well as perceived. As expected, more AIDS-related activities (policies, practices, and programs) were found in departments with workers known to have significant risk for exposure to the AIDS virus (fire rescue, medical examiner, police, etc.). AIDS specific policies, in the form of OSHA's Bloodborn Pathogen Standard, took place primarily because they were legislatively mandated. Union participation varied widely, although not necessarily based upon worker risk. In several departments, the union was a primary factor bringing about adoption decisions. Additional factors were identified and included organizational presence of AIDS expertise, availability of slack resources, and the existence of a policy champion. Other variables, such as subunit size, centralization of decision making, and formalization were not consistent factors explaining adoption decisions. ^

*Adoption status: A risk factor or protective factor for children of divorced families

This study examined two competitive hypotheses: the double jeopardy hypothesis and the buffering effect hypothesis on whether parental divorce affects adopted children and non-adopted children similarly or differently. The double jeopardy hypothesis suggests that when adopted children experience their parents' divorce, they perform worse because they carry two risk factors, adoption status and parental divorce, while their non-adopted counterparts carry only the risk factor of their parents' divorce. The buffering effect hypothesis suggests that, being adopted children, their previous experiences of parental loss help them better deal with the later loss of their parents' divorce so their adoption status is a protective factor rather than a risk factor. ^ Secondary analyses of a nation-wide data set were executed using different statistical methods such as ANOVA and Chi-square on different outcome variables. The results indicated that there was no evidence supporting the double-jeopardy hypothesis. That is, adopted children from divorced families did not perform significantly worse than the non-adopted children from divorced families on any outcome variable. The results also indicated that there was only weak evidence supporting the buffering effect hypothesis. The general conclusion based on the results from most of the outcome variables suggest that adopted children from divorced families do not perform differently than the biological children from divorced families. ^

The adoption of retail electronic commerce: an empirical investigation

The purpose of this study was to empirically investigate the adoption of retail electronic commerce (REC). REC is a business transaction which takes place over the Internet between a casual consumer and a firm. The consumer has no long-term relationship with the firm, orders a good or service, and pays with a credit card. To date, most REC applications have not been profitable. To build profitable REC applications a better understanding of the system's users is required. The research model hypothesizes that the level of REC buying is dependent upon the Buying Characteristics of Internet Use and Search Experience plus the Channel Characteristics of Beliefs About Internet Vendors and Beliefs About Internet Security. The effect of these factors is modified by Time. Additional research questions ask about the different types of REC buyers, the differences between these groups, and how these groups evolved over time. To answer these research questions I analyzed publically available data collected over a three-year period by the Georgia Institute of Technology Graphics and Visualization Unit over the Internet. Findings indicate the model best predicts Number of Purchases in a future period, and that Buyer Characteristics are most important to this determination. Further, this model is evolving over Time making Buyer Characteristics predict Number of Purchases better in more recent survey administrations. Buyers clustered into five groups based on level of buying and move through various levels and buy increasing Number of Purchases over time. This is the first large scale research project to investigate the evolution of REC. This implications are significant. Practitioners with casual consumer customers need to deploy a finely tuned REC strategy, understand their buyers, capitalize on the company reputation on the Internet, install an Internet-compatible infrastructure, and web-enable order-entry/inventory/fulfillment/ shipping applications. Researchers might wish to expand on the Buyer Characteristics of the model and/or explore alternative dependent variables. Further, alternative theories such as Population Ecology or Transaction Cost Economics might further illuminate this new I.S. research domain.

Factors Affecting the Adoption of New Technology: the case of 311 Government Call Centers

Government call centers (311) were first created to reduce the volume of non-emergency calls that were being placed to emergency 911 call centers. The number of 311 call centers increased from 57 in 2008 to about 300 in 2013. Considering that there are over 2,700 municipal government units across the United States, the adoption rate of the 311 centers is arguably low in the country. This dissertation is an examination of the adoption of 311 call centers by municipal governments. My focus is specifically on why municipal governments adopt 311 and identifying which barriers result in the non-adoption of 311 call centers. This dissertation is possibly the first study to examine the adoption of 311 call centers in the United States. The dissertation study has identified several significant factors in the adoption and non-adoption of 311 government call centers. The following factors were significant in the adoption of 311 government call centers: managerial support, financial constraints, organizational responsiveness, strategic plan placement, and technology champion. The following factors were significant barriers that resulted in the non-adoption of a 311 government call center; no demand from citizens, start up costs, annual operating costs, unavailability of funding, and no obvious need for one.If local government entities that do not have a 311 government call center decide to adopt one, this study will help them identify the conditions that need to be in place for successful adoption to occur. Local government officials would first need to address the barriers in setting up the 311 call centers.