Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Conceito global: um método de avaliação de competência clínica

Muito se tem feito para desenvolver métodos que avaliem de forma confiável a proficiência em habilidade clínica dos alunos de graduação médica. Há fortes evidências de que a avaliação global pode ser uma alternativa viável e confiável na avaliação de estudantes de graduação no ambiente clínico. Rotineiramente, a competência clínica tem sido avaliada pelos docentes por meio de um conceito subjetivo. Essa nota, dada por um especialista, não é objetiva e está sujeita a vieses. O uso de um instrumento bem delineado, com diversos itens pontuados numa escala, oferece a vantagem de especificar o que deve ser avaliado, auxiliando os avaliadores a distinguir os diferentes níveis do desempenho. Usando este método, os docentes podem expressar sua percepção global dos alunos, de forma mais objetiva, em relação a duas esferas distintas da competência: técnica (contendo itens como história clínica, exame físico, conhecimento médico, julgamento clínico, solução de problemas e hábitos no trabalho) e humanista (incluindo comunicação com pacientes e familiares, respeito, habilidades reflexivas, sensibilidade ao contexto e trabalho em equipe).

Influência dos cursos preparatórios para residência médica em uma avaliação global

INTRODUÇÃO: O desenvolvimento cognitivo é um processo complexo e o mais intenso na formação médica, necessitando ser acompanhado minuciosa e criteriosamente. Várias ferramentas foram criadas com o intuito de acompanhar tal processo, entre elas o teste global (ou de situação) de conhecimento, cuja finalidade é avaliar o desempenho cognitivo durante o curso e o próprio curso, bem como treinar acadêmicos para concursos. Outra forma de treinamento para provas de qualificação, muito usada atualmente, são os Cursos Preparatórios (CP) para residência médica. OBJETIVO: Analisar a influência e eficácia dos CP no ganho cognitivo dos acadêmicos do internato bienal de um curso de Medicina. METODOLOGIA: Estudo transversal, quantitativo, com aplicação de uma prova de situação aos internos que cursam ou não CP. RESULTADOS: Realizaram a prova 127 internos, sendo 63 do primeiro semestre e 64 do terceiro. A média de acerto geral foi de 5,1 ± 1,0 (5,0 ± 0,9 para quintanistas e 5,1 ± 1,2 para sextanistas; p = 0,533). Do total dos internos, 77,2% participavam de CP, sendo menor a proporção dos quintanistas (65,1% vs. 89,1%; p = 0,001). Não se observou diferença estatística no desempenho cognitivo dos internos relacionado à "frequência ou não de CP" (5,1 ± 1,1 vs. 4,8 ± 1,0; p = 0,203). CONCLUSÃO: O teste do tipo global não apresentou diferença estatística significativa no desempenho cognitivo dos estudantes de uma série para outra, não demonstrando no CP fator diferenciador neste tipo de avaliação (testes de múltipla escolha), colocando em dúvida a real influência e efetividade do CP.

Efficient installed base information management and utilization in global after sales service business

This Master´s thesis explores how the a global industrial corporation’s after sales service department should arrange its installed base management practices in order to maintain and utilize the installed base information effectively. Case company has product-related records, such as product’s lifecycle information, service history information and information about product’s performance. Information is collected and organized often case by case, therefore the systematic and effective use of installed base information is difficult also the overview of installed base is missing. The goal of the thesis study was to find out how the case company can improve the installed base maintenance and management practices and improve the installed base information availability and reliability. Installed base information management practices were first examined through the literature. The empirical research was conducted by the interviews and questionnaire survey, targeted to the case company’s service department. The research purpose was to find out the challenges related to case company´s service department’s information management practices. The study also identified the installed base information needs and improvement potential in the availability of information. Based on the empirical research findings, recommendations for improve installed base management practices and information availability were created. Grounding of the recommendations, the case company is suggested the following proposals for action: Service report development, improving the change management process, ensuring the quality of the product documentation in early stages of product life cycle and decision to improve installed base management practices.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

Developing markets of energy biomass – local and global perspectives

The thesis explores global and national-level issues related to the development of markets for biomass for energy. The thesis consists of five separate papers and provides insights on selected issues. The aim of Paper I was to identify methodological and statistical challenges in assessing international solid and liquid biofuels trade and provide an overview of the Finnish situation with respect to the status of international solid and liquid biofuels trade. We found that, for the Finnish case, it is possible to qualify direct and indirect trade volumes of biofuels. The study showed that indirect trade of biofuels has a highly significant role in Finland and may be a significant sector also in global biofuels trade. The purpose of Paper II was to provide a quantified insight into Finnish prospects for meeting the national 2020 renewable energy targets and concurrently becoming a largescale producer of forest-biomass-based second-generation biofuels for feeding increasing demand in European markets. We found that Finland has good opportunities to realise a scenario to meet 2020 renewable energy targets and for large-scale production of wood-based biofuels. The potential net export of transport biofuels from Finland in 2020 would correspond to 2–3% of European demand. Paper III summarises the global status of international solid and liquid biofuels trade as illuminated by several separate sources. International trade of biofuels was estimated at nearly 1 EJ for 2006. Indirect trade of biofuels through trading of industrial roundwood and material by-products comprises the largest proportion of the trading, with a share of about two thirds. The purpose of Paper IV was to outline a comprehensive picture of the coverage of various certification schemes and sustainability principles relating to the entire value-added chain of biomass and bioenergy. Regardless of the intensive work that has been done in the field of sustainability schemes and principles concerning use of biomass for energy, weaknesses still exist. The objective of Paper V was to clarify the alternative scenarios for the international biomass market until 2020 and identify the underlying steps needed toward a wellfunctioning and sustainable market for biomass for energy purposes. An overall conclusion drawn from this analysis concerns the enormous opportunities related to the utilisation of biomass for energy in the coming decades.

Estimativa da irradiação solar global com partição mensal e sazonal para a região de Cascavel - PR

No presente trabalho, mostram-se equações de estimativa da irradiação solar global (R G), por meio do modelo de Angstrom, com partições sazonal e mensal para a região de Cascavel - PR. Os dados experimentais foram cedidos pelo IAPAR, coletados na sua estação meteorológica localizada na COODETEC/Cascavel - PR, no período de 1983 a 1998. Dos 16 anos de dados, 12 anos foram utilizados para cálculo dos coeficientes (a e b) e quatro anos para a validação das equações. Os coeficientes de determinação encontrados foram superiores a 80% para as duas partições. O mínimo da R G é superestimado e o máximo é subestimado quando comparados com o mínimo e o máximo para dados reais, sendo esses encontrados no solstício de inverno e equinócio de primavera, respectivamente. A variação sazonal e mensal do coeficiente "a" foi menor (0,16 a 0,19 e 0,14 a 0,21) e do coeficiente "b" maior (0,34 a 0,43 e 0,32 a 0,44). As maiores variações dos erros médios diários ocorreram no equinócio de primavera (-19,45% a 27,28%) e as menores no equinócio de outono (-11,32% a 10,61%). O ajuste mais eficaz das equações foi encontrado para a partição mensal.

Comparação do Coeficiente Global de Perdas de Calor para casa de vegetação aquecida usando diferentes técnicas para eficiência energética

O Coeficiente Global de Perdas de Calor (U) permite o equacionamento das necessidades térmicas de uma casa de vegetação climatizada. No presente trabalho, determinou-se esse coeficiente cujo referencial foi uma casa de vegetação localizada em Madri (Espanha), em que foram utilizadas medidas noturnas de temperatura do ar no interior, no exterior, bem como o consumo de energia para aquecimento. As comparações entre as técnicas de aquecimento utilizadas foram: solo radiante e aerotermos combinados com duas técnicas que visavam a promover melhor aproveitamento térmico, ou seja, a utilização de cobertura plástica formando dupla capa ou a utilização de túnel plástico. Os menores coeficientes foram conseguidos para a utilização de solo radiante com túnel e aerotermos com dupla capa com 7,19 W m-2 ºC-1 e 9,11 W m-2 ºC-1, respectivamente; o maior valor dentre os coeficientes nas condições estudadas foi 15,13 W m-2 ºC-1 ao considerar o uso de aerotermos sem utilização de plásticos. Conclui-se, portanto, que os resultados comprovam o melhor rendimento térmico para as técnicas ensaiadas.

Evapotranspiração de referência com base na radiação solar global estimada pelo método de Bristow-Campbell

A quantidade de água a ser aplicada em sistemas de irrigação é normalmente calculada com base na evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) da região. Vários métodos podem ser empregados para o cálculo de ETo, sendo o de Hargreaves um dos mais adotados. Esse método utiliza valores estimados da radiação solar global (Rs) com base na diferença entre as temperaturas máxima (Tmáx) e mínima (Tmín) do ar. Entretanto, a Rs pode ser calculada por outros métodos, como o de Bristow-Campbell, que também se baseia na diferença entre Tmáx e Tmín. No presente trabalho, foram estimados valores diários da ETo pelo método de Hargreaves, em Jales - SP, com e sem o uso da equação de Bristow-Campbell para cálculo de Rs. Esses valores foram comparados aos obtidos pelo método de Penman-Monteith, que é considerado padrão para a estimativa de ETo. As avaliações consideraram os períodos úmido e seco na região. O uso da equação de Bristow-Campbell melhorou o desempenho do método de Hargreaves, em relação ao de Penman-Monteith, sendo que durante o período seco do ano o desempenho foi superior ao do período úmido.

Annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse radiation and fractions in tilted surfaces

It was evaluated the annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse components of incident solar radiation on tilted surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85º, facing north, in Botucatu, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The radiometric fractions were obtained for each component of the radiation in the aforementioned surfaces, through the ratio with the global and top of the atmosphere radiations. Seasonality was evaluated based on monthly averages of daily values. The measures occurred between 04/1998 and 07/2001 at 22.85º; 08/2001 and 02/2003 at 12.85º; and from 03/2003 to 12/2007 at 32.85º, with concomitant measures in the horizontal surface (reference). The levels of global and direct radiation on tilted surfaces were lower in summer and higher in the equinoxes when compared with the horizontal. The diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces was lower in most months, with losses of up to 65%. A trend of increasing differences occurred between horizontal and tilted surfaces with the increase of the angle in all the components and fractions of incident radiation. The annual evolution of rainfall and cloud cover ratio directly affected the atmospheric transmissivity of direct and diffuse components in the region.

Determination of total accumulated rainfall, global radiation, evapotranspiration and degree-days originated from the ECMWF model to sugar cane crop

The climate variability between the growth and harvesting of sugar cane is very important because it directly affects yield. The MODIS sensor has characteristics like spatial and temporal resolution that can be applied to monitoring of vegetative vigor variability in the land surface and then, temporal profiles generation. Agro meteorological data from ECMWF model are free and easy to access and have a good representation of reality. In this study, we used the period between sugar cane growth and harvest in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from temporal profiles selecting of NDVI behavior. For each period the precipitation, evapotranspiration, global radiation, length (days) and degree-days were accumulated. The periods were presented in a map format on MODIS spatial resolution of 250 meters. The results showed the spatial variability of climate variables and the relationship to the reality presented by official data.

Generalized Differential Evolution for Global Multi-Objective Optimization with Constraints

The objective of this thesis work is to develop and study the Differential Evolution Algorithm for multi-objective optimization with constraints. Differential Evolution is an evolutionary algorithm that has gained in popularity because of its simplicity and good observed performance. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have become popular since they are able to produce a set of compromise solutions during the search process to approximate the Pareto-optimal front. The starting point for this thesis was an idea how Differential Evolution, with simple changes, could be extended for optimization with multiple constraints and objectives. This approach is implemented, experimentally studied, and further developed in the work. Development and study concentrates on the multi-objective optimization aspect. The main outcomes of the work are versions of a method called Generalized Differential Evolution. The versions aim to improve the performance of the method in multi-objective optimization. A diversity preservation technique that is effective and efficient compared to previous diversity preservation techniques is developed. The thesis also studies the influence of control parameters of Differential Evolution in multi-objective optimization. Proposals for initial control parameter value selection are given. Overall, the work contributes to the diversity preservation of solutions in multi-objective optimization.

A Bridge Builder or a Raconteur? How Japan Manoeuvres the Global Development Discourse within the TICAD Process

Japan has been a major actor in the field of development cooperation for five decades, even holding the title of largest donor of Official Development Assistance (ODA) during the 1990s. Financial flows, however, are subject to pre-existing paradigms that dictate both donor and recipient behaviour. In this respect Japan has been left wanting for more recognition. The dominance of the so called ‘Washington Consensus’ embodied in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank has long circumvented any indigenous approaches to development problems. The Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) is a development cooperation conference that Japan has hosted since 1993 every five years. As the main organizer of the conference Japan has opted for the leading position of African development. This has come in the wake of success in the Asian region where Japan has called attention to its role in the so called ‘Asian Miracle’ of fast growing economies. These aspirations have enabled Japan to try asserting itself as a major player in directing the course of global development discourse using historical narratives from both Asia and Africa. Over the years TICAD has evolved into a continuous process with ministerial and follow-up meetings in between conferences. Each conference has produced a declaration that stipulates the way the participants approach the question of African development. Although a multilateral framework, Japan has over the years made its presence more and more felt within the process. This research examines the way Japan approaches the paradigms of international development cooperation and tries to direct them in the context of the TICAD process. Supplementing these questions are inquiries concerning Japan’s foreign policy aspirations. The research shows that Japan has utilized the conference platform to contest other development actors and especially the dominant forces of the IMF and the World Bank in development discourse debate. Japan’s dominance of the process is evident in the narratives found in the conference documents. Relative success has come about by remaining consistent as shown by the acceptance of items from the TICAD agenda in other forums, such as the G8. But the emergence of new players such as China has changed the playing field, as they are engaging other developing countries from a more equal level.