Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.

A simple gas chromatography method for the analysis of monoethanolamine in air

A simple method determining airborne monoethanolamine has been developed. Monoethanolamine determination has traditionally been difficult due to analytical separation problems. Even in recent sophisticated methods, this difficulty remains as the major issue often resulting in time-consuming sample preparations. Impregnated glass fiber filters were used for sampling. Desorption of monoethanolamine was followed by capillary GC analysis and nitrogen phosphorous selective detection. Separation was achieved using a specific column for monoethanolamines (35% diphenyl and 65% dimethyl polysiloxane). The internal standard was quinoline. Derivatization steps were not needed. The calibration range was 0.5-80 μg/mL with a good correlation (R(2) = 0.996). Averaged overall precisions and accuracies were 4.8% and -7.8% for intraday (n = 30), and 10.5% and -5.9% for interday (n = 72). Mean recovery from spiked filters was 92.8% for the intraday variation, and 94.1% for the interday variation. Monoethanolamine on stored spiked filters was stable for at least 4 weeks at 5°C. This newly developed method was used among professional cleaners and air concentrations (n = 4) were 0.42 and 0.17 mg/m(3) for personal and 0.23 and 0.43 mg/m(3) for stationary measurements. The monoethanolamine air concentration method described here was simple, sensitive, and convenient both in terms of sampling and analytical analysis.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Development and validation of a gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry method for the determination of ethyl glucuronide in hair and its application to forensic toxicology.

Ethyl glucuronide (EtG) is a minor and direct metabolite of ethanol. EtG is incorporated into the growing hair allowing retrospective investigation of chronic alcohol abuse. In this study, we report the development and the validation of a method using gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry (GC-NCI-MS/MS) for the quantification of EtG in hair. EtG was extracted from about 30 mg of hair by aqueous incubation and purified by solid-phase extraction (SPE) using mixed mode extraction cartridges followed by derivation with perfluoropentanoic anhydride (PFPA). The analysis was performed in the selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode using the transitions m/z 347-->163 (for the quantification) and m/z 347-->119 (for the identification) for EtG, and m/z 352-->163 for EtG-d(5) used as internal standard. For validation, we prepared quality controls (QC) using hair samples taken post mortem from 2 subjects with a known history of alcoholism. These samples were confirmed by a proficiency test with 7 participating laboratories. The assay linearity of EtG was confirmed over the range from 8.4 to 259.4 pg/mg hair, with a coefficient of determination (r(2)) above 0.999. The limit of detection (LOD) was estimated with 3.0 pg/mg. The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) of the method was fixed at 8.4 pg/mg. Repeatability and intermediate precision (relative standard deviation, RSD%), tested at 4 QC levels, were less than 13.2%. The analytical method was applied to several hair samples obtained from autopsy cases with a history of alcoholism and/or lesions caused by alcohol. EtG concentrations in hair ranged from 60 to 820 pg/mg hair.

Accuracy profile validation of a new analytical method for propane measurement using headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

Propane can be responsible for several types of lethal intoxication and explosions. Quantifying it would be very helpful to determine in some cases the cause of death. Some gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) methods of propane measurements do already exist. The main drawback of these GC-MS methods described in the literature is the absence of a specific propane internal standard necessary for accurate quantitative analysis. The main outcome of the following study was to provide an innovative Headspace-GC-MS method (HS-GC-MS) applicable to the routine determination of propane concentration in forensic toxicology laboratories. To date, no stable isotope of propane is commercially available. The development of an in situ generation of standards is thus presented. An internal-labeled standard gas (C3DH7) is generated in situ by the stoichiometric formation of propane by the reaction of deuterated water (D2O) with Grignard reagent propylmagnesium chloride (C3H7MgCl). The method aims to use this internal standard to quantify propane concentrations and, therefore, to obtain precise measurements. Consequently, a complete validation with an accuracy profile according to two different guidelines, the French Society of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Techniques (SFSTP) and the Gesellschaft für toxikologische und Forensische Chemie (GTFCh), is presented.

Analytical interference of 4-hydroxy-3-methoxymethamphetamine with the measurement of plasma free normetanephrine by ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

OBJECTIVES: The diagnosis of pheochromocytoma relies on the measurement of plasma free metanephrines assay whose reliability has been considerably improved by ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Here we report an analytical interference occurring between 4-hydroxy-3-methoxymethamphetamine (HMMA), a metabolite of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "Ecstasy"), and normetanephrine (NMN) since they share a common pharmacophore resulting in the same product ion after fragmentation. DESIGN AND METHODS: Synthetic HMMA was spiked into plasma samples containing various concentrations of NMN and the intensity of the interference was determined by UPLC-MS/MS before and after improvement of the analytical method. RESULTS: Using a careful adjustment of chromatographic conditions including the change of the UPLC analytical column, we were able to distinguish both compounds. HMMA interference for NMN determination should be seriously considered since MDMA activates the sympathetic nervous system and if confounded with NMN may lead to false-positive tests when performing a differential diagnostic of pheochromocytoma.

Imazaquin sorption in surface and subsurface soil samples

The objective of this work was to study the sorption and desorption of imazaquin, in surface and subsurface soil samples from Brazil. Sorption and desorption steps were carried out using batch equilibration and high performance liquid chromatography analytical routines. The value of Kf,ads was positively correlated with clay content, and negatively correlated with pH of supernatant. Samples from Typic Haplustox, clayey soil profile having high clay content, provided higher Kf,ads values, and negative correlation with organic carbon, silt content, cation exchange capacity and pH.

Identification of Wax Esters in Latent Print Residues by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectromertry and Their Potential Use as Aging Parameters

Recent studies show that the composition of fingerprint residue varies significantly from the same donor as well as between donors. This variability is a major drawback in latent print dating issues. This study aimed, therefore, at the definition of a parameter that is less variable from print to print, using a ratio of peak area of a target compound degrading over time divided by the summed area of peaks of more stable compounds also found in latent print residues.Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis of the initial lipid composition of latent prints identifies four main classes of compounds that can be used in the definition of an aging parameter: fatty acids, sterols, sterol precursors, and wax esters (WEs). Although the entities composing the first three groups are quite well known, those composing WEs are poorly reported. Therefore, the first step of the present work was to identify WE compounds present in latent print residues deposited by different donors. Of 29 WEs recorded in the chromatograms, seven were observed in the majority of samples.The identified WE compounds were subsequently used in the definition of ratios in combination with squalene and cholesterol to reduce the variability of the initial composition between latent print residues from different persons and more particularly from the same person. Finally, the influence of a latent print enhancement process on the initial composition was studied by analyzing traces after treatment with magnetic powder, 1,2-indanedione, and cyanoacrylate.

High-throughput and sensitive quantitation of plasma catecholamines by ultraperformance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry using a solid phase microwell extraction plate.

Plasma catecholamines provide a reliable biomarker of sympathetic activity. The low circulating concentrations of catecholamines and analytical interferences require tedious sample preparation and long chromatographic runs to ensure their accurate quantification by HPLC with electrochemical detection. Published or commercially available methods relying on solid phase extraction technology lack sensitivity or require derivatization of catecholamine by hazardous reagents prior to tandem mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. Here, we manufactured a novel 96-well microplate device specifically designed to extract plasma catecholamines prior to their quantification by a new and highly sensitive ultraperformance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method. Processing time, which included sample purification on activated aluminum oxide and elution, is less than 1 h per 96-well microplate. The UPLC-MS/MS analysis run time is 2.0 min per sample. This UPLC-MS/MS method does not require a derivatization step, reduces the turnaround time by 10-fold compared to conventional methods used for routine application, and allows catecholamine quantification in reduced plasma sample volumes (50-250 μL, e.g., from children and mice).

Short-term stability of testosterone and epitestosterone conjugates in urine samples: quantification by liquid chromatography-linear ion trap mass spectrometry.

A simple method using liquid chromatography-linear ion trap mass spectrometry for simultaneous determination of testosterone glucuronide (TG), testosterone sulfate (TS), epitestosterone glucuronide (EG) and epitestosterone sulfate (ES) in urine samples was developed. For validation purposes, a urine containing no detectable amount of TG, TS and EG was selected and fortified with steroid conjugate standards. Quantification was performed using deuterated testosterone conjugates to correct for ion suppression/enhancement during ESI. Assay validation was performed in terms of lower limit of detection (1-3ng/mL), recovery (89-101%), intraday precision (2.0-6.8%), interday precision (3.4-9.6%) and accuracy (101-103%). Application of the method to short-term stability testing of urine samples at temperature ranging from 4 to 37 degrees C during a time-storage of a week lead to the conclusion that addition of sodium azide (10mg/mL) is required for preservation of the analytes.

Ink dating using thermal desorption and gas chromatography / mass spectrometry: comparison of results obtained in two laboratories

Recent ink dating methods focused mainly on changes in solvent amounts occurring over time. A promising method was developed at the Landeskriminalamt of Munich using thermal desorption (TD) followed by gas chromatography / mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis. Sequential extractions of the phenoxyethanol present in ballpoint pen ink entries were carried out at two different temperatures. This method is applied in forensic practice and is currently implemented in several laboratories participating to the InCID group (International Collaboration on Ink Dating). However, harmonization of the method between the laboratories proved to be a particularly sensitive and time consuming task. The main aim of this work was therefore to implement the TD-GC/MS method at the Bundeskriminalamt (Wiesbaden, Germany) in order to evaluate if results were comparable to those obtained in Munich. At first validation criteria such as limits of reliable measurements, linearity and repeatability were determined. Samples were prepared in three different laboratories using the same inks and analyzed using two TDS-GC/MS instruments (one in Munich and one in Wiesbaden). The inter- and intra-laboratory variability of the ageing parameter was determined and ageing curves were compared. While inks stored in similar conditions yielded comparable ageing curves, it was observed that significantly different storage conditions had an influence on the resulting ageing curves. Finally, interpretation models, such as thresholds and trend tests, were evaluated and discussed in view of the obtained results. Trend tests were considered more suitable than threshold models. As both approaches showed limitations, an alternative model, based on the slopes of the ageing curves, was also proposed.

A simple halide-to-anion exchange method for heteroaromatic salts and ionic liquids

A broad and simple method permitted halide ions in quaternary heteroaromatic and ammonium salts to be exchanged for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A− form) in non-aqueous media. The anion loading of the AER (OH− form) was examined using two different anion sources, acids or ammonium salts, and changing the polarity of the solvents. The AER (A− form) method in organic solvents was then applied to several quaternary heteroaromatic salts and ILs, and the anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Relying on the hydrophobicity of the targeted ion pair for the counteranion swap, organic solvents with variable polarity were used, such as CH3OH, CH3CN and the dipolar nonhydroxylic solvent mixture CH3CN:CH2Cl2 (3:7) and the anion exchange was equally successful with both lipophilic cations and anions.

Oxygen consumption of Litopenaeus vannamei juveniles in heterotrophic medium with zero water exchange

This work aimed at determining the dissolved oxygen consumption rate of Litopenaeus vannamei juveniles maintained in a microbial biofloc raceway system at high density with no aeration. Three 4 L bottles were filled for each treatment, sealed hermetically, and placed in an enclosed greenhouse raceway system. Four shrimp (13.2±1.42 g) were assigned to two sets of the bottles, which underwent the following treatments: light conditions with no shrimp; dark conditions with no shrimp; light conditions with shrimp; and dark conditions with shrimp. Dissolved oxygen content was measured every 10 min for 30 min. A quadratic behavior was observed in dissolved oxygen concentration over time. Significant differences for oxigen consumption were observed only at 10 and 20 min between shrimp maintained in the dark and those under light conditions. At 10 min, a higher value was observed in shrimp maintained under light, and at 20 min, in the dark. Significant differences between 10 and 20 min and between 10 and 30 min were observed when oxygen consumption was analyzed over time in the presence of light. Under dark conditions there were significant differences only between 20 and 30 min. Lethal oxygen concentration (0.65 mg L-1) would be reached in less than one hour either under light or dark conditions with no aeration.

Variability of voriconazole plasma levels measured by new high-performance liquid chromatography and bioassay methods, [and] Voriconazole therapeutic drug monitoring in patients with invasive mycoses improves efficacy and safety outcomes

Rapport de synthèse1. Partie de laboratoireCette première étude décrit le développement et la validation, selon les standards internationaux, de deux techniques de mesure des concentrations sanguines de voriconazole, un nouvel agent antifongique à large spectre: 1) la chromatographic en phase liquide à haute pression et 2) le bio-essai utilisant une souche mutante de Candida hypersensible au voriconazole. Ce travail a aussi permis de mettre en évidence une importante et imprévisible variabilité inter- et intra-individuelle des concentrations sanguines de voriconazole malgré l'utilisation des doses recommandées par le fabriquant. Ce travail a été publié dans un journal avec "peer-review": "Variability of voriconazole plasma levels measured by new high- performance liquid chromatography and bioassay methods" by A. Pascual, V. Nieth, T. Calandra, J. Bille, S. Bolay, L.A. Decosterd, T. Buclin, P.A. Majcherczyk, D. Sanglard, 0. Marchetti. Antimicrobial Agents Chemotherapy, 2007; 51:137-432. Partie CliniqueCette deuxième étude a évalué de façon prospective l'impact clinique des concentrations sanguines de voriconazole sur l'efficacité et sécurité thérapeutique chez des patients atteints d'infections fongiques. Des concentrations sanguines élevées étaient significativement associés à la survenue d'une toxicité neurologique (encéphalopathie avec confusion, hallucinations et myoclonies) et des concentrations sanguines basses à une réponse insuffisante au traitement antifongique (persistance ou progression des signes cliniques et radiologiques de l'infection). Dans la majorité des cas, un ajustement de la dose de voriconazole, sur la base des concentrations mesurées, a abouti à une récupération neurologique complète ou à une résolution de l'infection, respectivement. Ce travail a été publié dans un journal avec "peer-review": " Voriconazole Therapeutic Drug Monitoring in Patients with Invasive Mycoses Improves Efficacy and Safety Outcomes" by A. Pascual, T. Calandra, S. Bolay, T. Buclin, J. Bille, and O. Marchetti. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2008 January 15; 46(2): 201-11.Ces deux études, financées de façon conjointe par un "grant" international de la Société suisse d'infectiologie et la Société internationale de maladies infectieuses et par la Fondation pour le progrès en microbiologie médicale et maladies infectieuses (FAMMID, Lausanne), ont été réalisées au sein du Service des Maladies Infectieuses, Département de Médecine, au CHUV, en étroite collaboration avec la Division de Pharmacologie Clinique, Département de Médecine, au CHUV et l'Institut de Microbiologie du CHUV et de l'Université de Lausanne.