943 resultados para Dynamic Land Use


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Perturbation of natural ecosystems, namely by increasing freshwater use and its degradative use, as well as topsoil erosion by water of land-use production systems, have been emerging as topics of high environmental concern. Freshwater use has become a focus of attention in the last few years for all stakeholders involved in the production of goods, mainly agro-industrial and forest-based products, which are freshwater-intensive consumers, requiring large inputs of green and blue water. This thesis presents a global review on the available Water Footprint Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based methods for measuring and assessing the environmental relevance of freshwater resources use, based on a life cycle perspective. Using some of the available midpoint LCA-based methods, the freshwater use-related impacts of a Portuguese wine (white ‘vinho verde’) were assessed. However, the relevance of environmental green water has been neglected because of the absence of a comprehensive impact assessment method associated with green water flows. To overcome this constraint, this thesis helps to improve and enhance the LCA-based methods by providing a midpoint and spatially explicit Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) method for assessing impacts on terrestrial green water flow and addressing reductions in surface blue water production caused by reductions in surface runoff due to land-use production systems. The applicability of the proposed method is illustrated by a case study on Eucalyptus globulus conducted in Portugal, as the growth of short rotation forestry is largely dependent on local precipitation. Topsoil erosion by water has been characterised as one of the most upsetting problems for rivers. Because of this, this thesis also focuses on the ecosystem impacts caused by suspended solids (SS) from topsoil erosion that reach freshwater systems. A framework to conduct a spatially distributed SS delivery to freshwater streams and a fate and effect LCIA method to derive site-specific characterisation factors (CFs) for endpoint damage on aquatic ecosystem diversity, namely on algae, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrates organisms, were developed. The applicability of this framework, combined with the derived site-specific CFs, is shown by conducting a case study on E. globulus stands located in Portugal as an example of a land use based system. A spatially explicit LCA assessment was shown to be necessary, since the impacts associated with both green water flows and SS vary greatly as a function of spatial location.

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Land take is a phenomenon of great concern nowadays because of the large number of its negative impacts regarding biological, economic and social balance. In Italy, the development of urban and other artificial land has been irreversibly transforming a nonrenewable resource such as soil, regardless the almost constant population rate, with different speed depending of the region considered. The aim of this paper is to analyze the phenomenon in the metropolitan area of Naples, which is an area highly affected by territorial aggression of human matrix. The data used are both by the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) Report 2015 on the usage of the land and by ISTAT relating to the resident population up to the 1st of January 2015 and the extension of land for agricultural use (Census 2010). The mathematical combination of this data creates a new indicator that can be referred to as “residual land”; this residual area is of great extension with many different characteristics and it could represent the area where the phenomenon of land take most occurs. The identification, measurement and analysis of “residual land” provide new insights on the evolution of land take and this new indicator can represent a critical element to work on to prevent future land transformation and protect natural and agricultural areas within the Italian context.

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This paper addresses current changes in the highly diverse European landscape, and the way these transitions are being treated in policy and landscape management in the fragmented, heterogeneous and dynamic context of today’s Europe. It appears that intersecting driving forces are increasing the complexity of European landscapes and causing polarising developments in agricultural land use, biodiversity conservation and cultural landscape management. On the one hand, multifunctional rural landscapes, especially in peri-urban regions, provide services and functions that serve the citizens in their demand for identity, support their sense of belonging and offer opportunities for recreation and involvement in practical landscape management. On the other hand, industrial agricultural production on increasingly large farms produces food, feed, fibre and energy to serve expanding international markets with rural live ability and accessibility as a minor issue. The intermediate areas of traditionally dominant small and family farms in Europe seem to be gradually declining in profitability. The paper discusses the potential of a governance approach that can cope with the requirement of optimising land-sharing conditions and community-based landscape development, while adapting to global market conditions.

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Grain finishing of cattle has become increasingly common in Australia over the past 30 years. However, interest in the associated environmental impacts and resource use is increasing and requires detailed analysis. In this study we conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate impacts of the grain-finishing stage for cattle in seven feedlots in eastern Australia, with a particular focus on the feedlot stage, including the impacts from producing the ration, feedlot operations, transport, and livestock emissions while cattle are in the feedlot (gate-to-gate). The functional unit was 1 kg of liveweight gain (LWG) for the feedlot stage and results are included for the full supply chain (cradle-to-gate), reported per kilogram of liveweight (LW) at the point of slaughter. Three classes of cattle produced for different markets were studied: short-fed domestic market (55–80 days on feed), mid-fed export (108–164 days on feed) and long-fed export (>300 days on feed). In the feedlot stage, mean fresh water consumption was found to vary from 171.9 to 672.6 L/kg LWG and mean stress-weighted water use ranged from 100.9 to 193.2 water stress index eq. L/kg LWG. Irrigation contributed 57–91% of total fresh water consumption with differences mainly related to the availability of irrigation water near the feedlot and the use of irrigated feed inputs in rations. Mean fossil energy demand ranged from 16.5 to 34.2 MJ lower heating values/kg LWG and arable land occupation from 18.7 to 40.5 m2/kg LWG in the feedlot stage. Mean greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the feedlot stage ranged from 4.6 to 9.5 kg CO2-e/kg LWG (excluding land use and direct land-use change emissions). Emissions were dominated by enteric methane and contributions from the production, transport and milling of feed inputs. Linear regression analysis showed that the feed conversion ratio was able to explain >86% of the variation in GHG intensity and energy demand. The feedlot stage contributed between 26% and 44% of total slaughter weight for the classes of cattle fed, whereas the contribution of this phase to resource use varied from 4% to 96% showing impacts from the finishing phase varied considerably, compared with the breeding and backgrounding. GHG emissions and total land occupation per kilogram of LWG during the grain finishing phase were lower than emissions from breeding and backgrounding, resulting in lower life-time emissions for grain-finished cattle compared with grass finishing.

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Portugal’s Northeast production of sheep and goats are based on the exploitation of landscape by-products such as spontaneous native vegetation and agriculture leftovers. Shepherds tend the flocks throughout grazing itineraries every day, crossing a mosaic of patches of varied land uses. During the journey, the shepherd acts together with the sheep and goats to select each patch in creating an ordered sequence of land uses. The focus of the research is on the land-use composition of the grazing itineraries; determinate how they depend on the patterns of the landscape mosaic. It is utilized a data set of 26 monthly herd’s itineraries, 13 of sheep and 13 of goats, to investigate the relationship of the land uses crossed by the flocks and the land uses of the landscape, evaluating the land-use preferences and selectivity of the sheep and goats. It is utilized the divergences in the time spent and distance travelled by the herds and the area of the land uses in the landscape, the chi-square test to relate the preferred land used and the season, and the discriminate analysis to distinguish the preferences and the selectivity of the herd of sheep and the herd of goats. The herds of the sheep and the goats presented different land-use preferences over the seasons and the discriminant analysis shows that they have different landscape preferences. The herd of sheep has the highest selectivity indexes for the annual irrigated crops, the agricultural complex systems and the agroforestry land uses. The highest selectivity indexes for the herd of goats were found for the deciduous forest, the agriculture with natural and semi-natural spaces and the shrublands land uses. It was concluded that the landscape management for sheep and goats herding has to be different: the agricultural land uses are essential to the flocks of sheep and the forest land uses are decisive to the flocks of goats.

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Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

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Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

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Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

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Urban agriculture, a dynamic multifunctional phenomenon, affects the spatial diversification of urban land use, its valorization and its governance. Literature acknowledges its contribution to the development of sustainable cities. The dimension and extent of this contribution depends significantly on the particular form and function of urban agriculture. However, the complexity of interests and dimensions is insufficiently covered by theory. This paper proposes a typology for urban agriculture, supporting both theory building and practical decision processes. We reviewed and mapped the diversity of the types of agriculture found along three beneficial dimensions (self-supply, socio-cultural, commercial) for product distribution scale and actors. We distinguish between ideal types, subtypes and mixed types. Our intention is to include a dynamic perspective in the typology of urban agricultural land use because transition processes between types are observable due to the existence of complex motivations and influences. In a pilot study of 52 urban agriculture initiatives in Germany, we tested the validity of the typology and discussed it with stakeholders, proving novelty and relevance for profiling discussions.

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El interés de comprender la manera en la que los instrumentos de planificación afectan la dinámica del mercado inmobiliario, dio origen a la presente investigación que estudia el desarrollo urbano de Bogotá a partir de la implementación del Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, Decreto 190 de 2004. A través del estudio de las tendencias espaciales de licenciamiento, se evaluó si se logró consolidar el modelo de ocupación propuesto en el POT; encontrándose que las decisiones de localización de los agentes privados no respondieron a la estructura urbana deseada, al no haberse concretado en el territorio por ejemplo la red de centralidades y el programa de renovación urbana.

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In Alentejo region, southern Portugal, differences in groundwater samples from six groundwater bodies covered with different land uses were analysed based on the monitoring plan of the Alqueva multi-purpose project, created in the sequence of the construction of the Alqueva Dam on the Guadiana River, in South Portugal. For most of the groundwater bodies there is a statistical significant difference between magnesium, sulphate, chloride, and phosphate. All of these ions are strongly correlated with land use management. Groundwater, where land is covered by olive groves, has high levels of electric conductivity, calcium, potassium, sulphate, and phosphate. Dry land crops are correlated with calcium, magnesium, chloride and consequently, electric conductivity, phosphates and sulphate. Vineyards are strongly correlated with high sulphate and phosphate levels. This study clearly shows that different land uses within a certain groundwater body influence the water quality in a different way. Therefore, an appropriate soil management should be adjusted to each situation, taking into account the aquifer matrix and the overlying soil.

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The supply side of the food security engine is the way we farm. The current engine of conventional tillage farming is faltering and needs to be replaced. This presentation will address supply side issues of agriculture to meet future agricultural demands for food and industry using the alternate no-till Conservation Agriculture (CA) paradigm (involving no-till farming with mulch soil cover and diversified cropping) that is able to raise productivity sustainably and efficiently, reduce inputs, regenerate degraded land, minimise soil erosion, and harness the flow of ecosystem services. CA is an ecosystems approach to farming capable of enhancing not only the economic and environmental performance of crop production and land management, but also promotes a mindset change for producing ‘more from less’, the key attitude towards sustainable production intensification. CA is now spreading globally in all continents at an annual rate of 10 Mha and covers some 157 Mha of cropland. Today global agriculture produces enough food to feed three times the current population of 7.21 billion. In 1976, when the world population was 4.15 billion, world food production far exceeded the amount necessary to feed that population. However, our urban and industrialised lifestyle leads to wastage of food of some 30%-40%, as well as waste of enormous amount of energy and protein while transforming crop-based food into animal-derived food; we have a higher proportion of people than ever before who are obese; we continue to degrade our ecosystems including much of our agricultural land of which some 400 Mha is reported to be abandoned due to severe soil and land degradation; and yields of staple cereals appear to have stagnated. These are signs of unsustainability at the structural level in the society, and it is at the structural level, for both supply side and demand side, that we need transformed mind sets about production, consumption and distribution. CA not only provides the possibility of increased crop yields for the low input smallholder farmer, it also provides a pro-poor rural and agricultural development model to support agricultural intensification in an affordable manner. For the high output farmer, it offers greater efficiency (productivity) and profit, resilience and stewardship. For farming anywhere, it addresses the root causes of agricultural land degradation, sub-optimal ecological crop and land potentials or yield ceilings, and poor crop phenotypic expressions or yield gaps. As national economies expand and diversify, more people become integrated into the economy and are able to access food. However, for those whose livelihoods continue to depend on agriculture to feed themselves and the rest of the world population, the challenge is for agriculture to produce the needed food and raw material for industry with minimum harm to the environment and the society, and to produce it with maximum efficiency and resilience against abiotic and biotic stresses, including those arising from climate change. There is growing empirical and scientific evidence worldwide that the future global supplies of food and agricultural raw materials can be assured sustainably at much lower environmental and economic cost by shifting away from conventional tillage-based food and agriculture systems to no-till CA-based food and agriculture systems. To achieve this goal will require effective national and global policy and institutional support (including research and education).

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The metapopulation paradigm is central in ecology and conservation biology to understand the dynamics of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Metapopulations are often studied using simulation modelling, and there is an increasing demand of user-friendly software tools to simulate metapopulation responses to environmental change. Here we describe the MetaLandSim R package, mwhich integrates ideas from metapopulation and graph theories to simulate the dynamics of real and virtual metapopulations. The package offers tools to (i) estimate metapopulation parameters from empirical data, (ii) to predict variation in patch occupancy over time in static and dynamic landscapes, either real or virtual, and (iii) to quantify the patterns and speed of metapopulation expansion into empty landscapes. MetaLandSim thus provides detailed information on metapopulation processes, which can be easily combined with land use and climate change scenarios to predict metapopulation dynamics and range expansion for a variety of taxa and ecological systems.