929 resultados para Dust, extinction


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Bibliography: p. 114-116.

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Mineral dust has a large impact on regional and global climate, depending on its particle size. Especially in the Atlantic Ocean downwind of the Sahara, the largest dust source on earth, the effects can be substantial but are poorly understood. This study focuses on seasonal and spatial variations in particle size of Saharan dust deposition across the Atlantic Ocean, using an array of submarine sediment traps moored along a transect at 12° N. We show that the particle size decreases downwind with increased distance from the Saharan source, due to higher gravitational settling velocities of coarse particles in the atmosphere. Modal grain sizes vary between 4 and 33 µm throughout the different seasons and at five locations along the transect. This is much coarser than previously suggested and incorporated into climate models. In addition, seasonal changes are prominent, with coarser dust in summer, and finer dust in winter and spring. Such seasonal changes are caused by transport at higher altitudes and at greater wind velocities during summer than in winter. Also the latitudinal migration of the dust cloud, associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, causes seasonal differences in deposition as the summer dust cloud is located more to the north, and more directly above the sampled transect. Furthermore, increased precipitation and more frequent dust storms in summer coincide with coarser dust deposition. Our findings contribute to understanding Saharan dust transport and deposition relevant for the interpretation of sedimentary records for climate reconstructions, as well as for global and regional models for improved prediction of future climate.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

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The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.