Application of a Bivariate Probit Model to Investigate the Intended Evacuation from Hurricane

With evidence of increasing hurricane risks in Georgia Coastal Area (GCA) and Virginia in the U.S. Southeast and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is becoming more and more important for community planners. My research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to hurricane risks, a behavioral survey of the six counties in GCA under the direction of two social scientists with extensive experience in survey research related to citizen and household response to emergencies and disasters. Respondents gave answers whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit models are used to investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondents are concerned about the hurricane, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a lot of demographic and socioeconomic variables (e.g., gender, military, age, length of residence, owning vehicles).

Emergency and Transitional Shelters [Literature Review]

Over the past two decades the number of recorded disasters has doubled from approximately 200 to over 400 disasters per year. Such an increase in the frequency of disasters has not been without consequence, producing ever-greater waves of population displacements throughout the developing world. The United Nation’s Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) responsible for the coordination of international humanitarian responses states unequivocally that populations displaced by disaster have a right to protection and the provision of basic necessities such as adequate food, water, clothing, sanitation, and essential health services (IASC, 2006 and The Sphere Project, 2011). Shelter responses are often a vital node around which many of these humanitarian concerns are addressed. This document is a review of 3 case studies, 6 field reports, 1 concept paper, 16 guidelines, 1 call for proposals, and 4 strategic framework documents prepared by organizations active in the humanitarian shelter sector on emergency and transitional shelters. While emergency shelter response is focused primarily on protection and relief during and immediately after a disaster has occurred, the transitional shelter approach emphasizes integrating disaster response into an immediate transition towards reconstruction, recovery, and sustainable development.

Four Essays of Environmental Risk-Mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers’ preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers’ choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

Scenario-based preparedness plan for floods

The increasing trend of disaster victims globally is posing a complex challenge for disaster management authorities. Moreover, to accomplish successful transition between preparedness and response, it is important to consider the different features inherent to each type of disaster. Floods are portrayed as one of the most frequent and harmful disasters, hence introducing the necessity to develop a tool for disaster preparedness to perform efficient and effective flood management. The purpose of the article is to introduce a method to simultaneously define the proper location of shelters and distribution centers, along with the allocation of prepositioned goods and distribution decisions required to satisfy flood victims. The tool combines the use of a raster geographical information system (GIS) and an optimization model. The GIS determines the flood hazard of the city areas aiming to assess the flood situation and to discard floodable facilities. Then, the multi-commodity multimodal optimization model is solved to obtain the Pareto frontier of two criteria: distance and cost. The methodology was applied to a case study in the flood of Villahermosa, Mexico, in 2007, and the results were compared to an optimized scenario of the guidelines followed by Mexican authorities, concluding that the value of the performance measures was improved using the developed method. Furthermore, the results exhibited the possibility to provide adequate care for people affected with less facilities than the current approach and the advantages of considering more than one distribution center for relief prepositioning.

L’analyse de la vulnérabilité d’une population déplacée suite à un désastre naturel : le cas du site planifié Corail à Port-au-Prince

À travers l’augmentation des désastres dits « naturels » au cours de la dernière décennie, des populations se sont retrouvées soudainement sans maison, sans endroit où loger. L’absence d’endroit où loger amènera donc les populations affectées à se déplacer temporairement et parfois de façon permanente. Cette étude s’intéresse à un cas spécifique de relocalisation dans un site organisé, Corail-Cesselesse, créé quelques mois après le tremblement de terre dévastateur de janvier 2010, en Haïti. Initialement occupé par des ménages provenant surtout des quartiers de Delmas et Port-au-Prince et qui s’étaient réfugiés sur le vaste terrain de golf de Pétionville après avoir perdu leurs habitations, le site de Corail est ainsi étudié de façon descriptive et comparative pour évaluer l’évolution de la vulnérabilité des ménages qui y vivent. Pour ce faire, une revue du concept portant sur la vulnérabilité et la gestion des risques est nécessaire pour y dégager les indicateurs clés servant à l’analyse de l’évolution des états précédant et succédant à une catastrophe naturelle. En particulier, une approche combinant trois méthodes ralliant le qualitatif et quantitatif est utile pour conduire cette évaluation. À travers des questionnaires, des données géospatiales et d’entrevues auprès de professionnels en aménagement dans les pays en développement, on analyse dans quelle mesure la vulnérabilité sociale a évolué. On constate que la prise de décision sur la création de Corail a négligé plusieurs dimensions sociales nécessaires pour permettre aux familles de se rétablir d’un aléa d’une telle amplitude.

Role of microfinance to support agricultural climate change adaptations in Indonesia: Encouraging private sector participation in climate finance

The demands of mitigation and adaptation policies are important to understanding a country’s climate change preparation by providing microfinance in the agricultural sector. This could be seen as a strategy to fight against the challenges of future food security. In 2014, Indonesia established climate change adaptation policies. This legislation aims to pave the way for making actions on climate change adaptation mainstream in national and local development planning. Public and private finance have supported the implementation of the climate actions. However, most funding is still used for mitigation. Adaptation finance needs support, especially in agriculture. This research paper studies opportunities for microfinance to play a role together with existing resources in supporting climate change adaptation in Indonesia. The data was acquired and analysed through a literature review, analysis of case studies and interviews with stakeholders in the climate change-related financial sector. The central findings regarding the opportunity for microfinance to contribute to the existing schemes in Indonesian climate change adaptation finance for agriculture are worthy of the result. This study found that adaptation finance is mostly used for indirect activities. Meanwhile, local communities, and farmers in particular, need directly targeted measures to adapt to climate change. An alternative approach is providing microfinance, insurance and capacity development for farmers to produce high quality agricultural products. This would contribute to optimizing the agri-food value chain, which supports socio-economic development of stakeholders, especially farmers. Hence, microfinance appears to be one potential solution to support direct climate change adaptation actions for the agricultural sector. However, this may not be strong enough to finance the entire needs for agricultural climate actions. Adaptation is contextual, so it has to be grounded in the needs of local communities. Microfinance needs public sectors support as well as other resources from the private sector. In the case of rapid response to disasters, which often destroy the agricultural sector, microfinance should be advantageous in supporting adaptation. However, in reality, it does not work, as it is prevented by regulations. So, this can be an area the public sector can support as a risk-taker as well as by providing initial funds and resources for scaling up efforts.

El agua como factor reordenador del territorio en el caso de las inundaciones de la Universidad de la Sabana en 2011

El objetivo de este estudio de caso es analizar el agua como factor reordenador del territorio, en el caso específico de las inundaciones sucedidas en el 2011 en el territorio de la Universidad de la Sabana. Durante la ola invernal del 2011 todo el país sufrió las consecuencias de los errores en la planeación de los asentamientos humanos. La no inclusión de la gestión del riesgo dentro del Ordenamiento Territorial, sumado la falta de comprensión de las dinámicas del territorio y del rol del agua como factor ordenador del territorio, causaron inundaciones y desastres naturales que afectaron la vida de miles de ciudadanos, entre eso los estudiantes, profesores y demás afectados por las inundaciones de la Universidad de la Sabana.

Logística humanitaria: seguridad agroalimentaria

Actualmente la relación que existe entre la logística humanitaria y la seguridad agroalimentaria es muy estrecha, estos dos conceptos constituyen un elemento sumamente importante en situaciones que se presentan hoy en día a nivel mundial, como por ejemplo en los diferentes tipos de desastres naturales como terremotos, tsunamis, sequías, hambrunas, entre otros, o simplemente, en zonas de alta pobreza. La logística humanitaria es hoy en día un concepto novedoso que nace de la necesidad de poder suministrar los recursos adecuados en zonas que han sido afectadas por desastres naturales, o situaciones de orden público, como por ejemplo los conflictos armados. Estos recursos deben asegurarle a la población afectada que puedan mantener a lo largo de un tiempo sus necesidades básicas, y así mismo, que estos recursos aseguren a la población afectada que puedan tener una vida digna y segura, lo que conlleva entre otras cosas, tener una seguridad agroalimentaria. A medida que se presentan diferentes escenarios de desastres naturales, la ayuda humanitaria a nivel mundial es necesaria, y el tiempo de respuesta juega un papel sumamente importante. En consecuencia, esta investigación presenta un enfoque que involucra los conceptos de logística humanitaria y de seguridad agroalimentaria, con el fin de contextualizar su evolución y los estudios que se llevan a cabo hoy en día.

La inclusión de la gestión del riesgo de desastres en la administración pública a nivel departamental. Una mirada desde el sistema de respuesta a emergencias en Antioquia y Tolima (2010-2014)

La gestión del riesgo de desastres ha cobrado importancia en los últimos años a causa de las devastadoras consecuencias de los distintos desastres naturales. Por eso, esta política pública se ha establecido en las administraciones públicas de los diferentes países; en Colombia se ha implementado a través de la Ley 1523 del 2012. Sin embargo, no se ha podido hacer una inclusión integral en todas las entidades territoriales. Entonces, la presente investigación pretende demostrar los factores presentes en el sistema de respuesta a emergencias, en dos importante departamentos del país, que influyen en la inclusión integral de la gestión del riesgo de desastres en la administración pública departamental.

Análisis de la relación entre la gestión del riesgo y la vulnerabilidad. Caso de estudio: Brisas del Volador, Ciudad Bolívar

Este estudio analiza la relación entre la gestión del riesgo y la vulnerabilidad en el barrio Brisas del Volador, ubicado en Ciudad Bolívar, Bogotá. Se explicó el cambio en el enfoque de estudio y manejo de los desastres a partir de la consolidación de términos relacionados a procesos sociales, como lo son la vulnerabilidad y el riesgo. Así mismo, se describieron los cambios que se han establecido en la forma de abordar el riesgo en Colombia, tanto a nivel nacional como distrital. La investigación reveló la forma como se ha generado la vulnerabilidad a partir de la intersección de distintos procesos en un asentamiento informal y como se materializan diferentes elementos para conformar la vulnerabilidad global. A partir de esto, se recopilaron las acciones implementadas en la zona de estudio desde la gestión del riesgo, se clasificaron en cada uno de los tres procesos: conocimiento, reducción o manejo del desastre y posteriormente se estudiaron. Con base en esto, se analizaron las medidas que tuvieron una incidencia en la reducción de la vulnerabilidad y los resultados que generaron.

Manual para o cidadão. O que fazer em caso de incêndio, terramoto, cheia, tempestade ou ataque terrorista?

Recommendations for citizens in case of disaster and terrorist attacks, including prevention measures. Recomendaçoes para se comportar em caso de catástrofe, incluindo medidas de prevençao.

Semi-automatic keyword based approach for FIRE 2016 Microblog Track

This paper describes our semi-automatic keyword based approach for the four topics of Information Extraction from Microblogs Posted during Disasters task at Forum for Information Retrieval Evaluation (FIRE) 2016. The approach consists three phases.

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests.

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cy- cle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combina- tion of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measure- ments and 35 litter productivity measurements), their asso- ciated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonal- ity in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rain- fall is < 2000 mm yr-1 (water-limited forests) and to radia- tion otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, in- dependent of climate limitations, wood productivity and lit- terfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosyn- thetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest pro- ductivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in cur- rent light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr-1.

PERCEPCIÓN Y PREVENCIÓN DEL RIESGO POR LAHAR EN LOS DIQUES DE CARTAGO

En los Diques de Taras de Cartago reside una población con alto grado de vulnerabilidad a la ocurrencia de lahares  provenientes del  Río Reventado.  En este artículo se analiza la situación del Barrio La Unión ante un eventual lahar, tanto desde el punto de vista de la amenaza, a la que están expuestos, como de la percepción del riesgo que tienen sus habitantes.Palabras clave: Lahar, desastres naturales, percepción del riesgo, diquesAbstract:In Taras Diques, Cartago, the inhabitants are highly vulnerable to mud slides from the Reventado River. This article analyzes the situation of the La Unión Community in an event of a mud slide, from the danger`s point of view they are exposed to as well as how the inhabitants perceive the risk.Keywords: Lahar, natural disasters, perception of the risk, dikes