972 resultados para Delphi Method
Resumo:
The pericentric inversion on chromosome 16 [inv(16)(p13q22)] and related t(16;16)(p13;q22) are recurrent aberrations associated with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) M4 Eo. Both abberations result in a fusion of the core binding factor beta (CBFB) and smooth muscle myosin heavy chain gene (MYH11). A selected genomic 6.9-kb BamHl probe detects MYH11 DNA rearrangements in 18 of 19 inv(16)/t(16;16) patients tested using HindIII digested DNA. The rearranged fragments were not detectable after remission in two cases tested, while they were present after relapse in one of these two cases tested.
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This preliminary exploration was limited by a number of factors. The format of the study has necessarily induced some form of selection bias of the panelists, because of the complexity of some questions, and the time required to complete the questionnaires. Several issues have not been addressed. One example could be the response to HIV infection occurring in a vaccinee. The study also did not address the difficulties related to the licensing of the vaccine. Indeed, the proposed scenario assumed that the vaccine had been registered as a starting point for the analysis. Finally, it has not been possible to conduct a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate how the responses would have been modified if some important characteristics of the vaccine had been modified.Very diverse evaluations were given in response to questions related with attitudes and perception of AIDS and AIDS vaccine. The possibility that vaccine availability or usage can be associated with an increased frequency in risky behaviors was spontaneously mentioned by half of the panelists. The estimation of the proportion of persons at highest risk who would choose to use this vaccine also indicated a high degree of uncertainty. This study offers important lessons. According to a broad and diverse panel of individuals, an incompletely effective AIDS vaccine would result in an additional level of complexity for the AIDS prevention strategy, rather than a simplification. The use of such a vaccine would have to be coupled with counselling. This implies a sustained emphasis on the recommendations which have been central to the STOP AIDS campaigns until now. In addition, consensual issues, as well as other issues more likely to be controversial have been identified. This should greatly help focusing the work of any committee designated to develop and implement a vaccination policy if an AIDS vaccine became available. Finally, our experience with the Policy Delphi indicates that this mode of structured communication could be usefully applied to other public health issues presenting a high visibility as well as a complex relationship with public perception.
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This paper studies the rate of convergence of an appropriatediscretization scheme of the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasovequation introduced by Bossy and Talay. More specifically,we consider approximations of the distribution and of thedensity of the solution of the stochastic differentialequation associated to the Mc Kean - Vlasov equation. Thescheme adopted here is a mixed one: Euler/weakly interactingparticle system. If $n$ is the number of weakly interactingparticles and $h$ is the uniform step in the timediscretization, we prove that the rate of convergence of thedistribution functions of the approximating sequence in the $L^1(\Omega\times \Bbb R)$ norm and in the sup norm is of theorder of $\frac 1{\sqrt n} + h $, while for the densities is ofthe order $ h +\frac 1 {\sqrt {nh}}$. This result is obtainedby carefully employing techniques of Malliavin Calculus.
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Studies assessing skin irritation to chemicals have traditionally used laboratory animals; however, such methods are questionable regarding their relevance for humans. New in vitro methods have been validated, such as the reconstructed human epidermis (RHE) model (Episkin®, Epiderm®). The comparison (accuracy) with in vivo results such as the 4-h human patch test (HPT) is 76% at best (Epiderm®). There is a need to develop an in vitro method that better simulates the anatomo-pathological changes encountered in vivo. To develop an in vitro method to determine skin irritation using human viable skin through histopathology, and compare the results of 4 tested substances to the main in vitro methods and in vivo animal method (Draize test). Human skin removed during surgery was dermatomed and mounted on an in vitro flow-through diffusion cell system. Ten chemicals with known non-irritant (heptylbutyrate, hexylsalicylate, butylmethacrylate, isoproturon, bentazon, DEHP and methylisothiazolinone (MI)) and irritant properties (folpet, 1-bromohexane and methylchloroisothiazolinone (MCI/MI)), a negative control (sodiumchloride) and a positive control (sodiumlaurylsulphate) were applied. The skin was exposed at least for 4h. Histopathology was performed to investigate irritation signs (spongiosis, necrosis, vacuolization). We obtained 100% accuracy with the HPT model; 75% with the RHE models and 50% with the Draize test for 4 tested substances. The coefficients of variation (CV) between our three test batches were <0.1, showing good reproducibility. Furthermore, we reported objectively histopathological irritation signs (irritation scale): strong (folpet), significant (1-bromohexane), slight (MCI/MI at 750/250ppm) and none (isoproturon, bentazon, DEHP and MI). This new in vitro test method presented effective results for the tested chemicals. It should be further validated using a greater number of substances; and tested in different laboratories in order to suitably evaluate reproducibility.
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In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.
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This study aimed to describe the behavior of oviposition traps for Aedes aegypti over time, to compare it with the larval survey and to investigate the association with climatic variables. It was conducted in São José do Rio Preto city, São Paulo. Daily climatic data and fortnightly measurements for oviposition traps and larval infestation were collected from October 2003 to September 2004. Three different periods were identified in the behavior of oviposition traps' positivity and mean number of eggs: increase, plateau and decrease in values. These measurements followed the variation of climatic data from the first and third periods. High correlation was obtained between the positivity and the mean number of eggs. The oviposition traps showed higher capacity to detect the vector than did larval survey. It was observed that the first (October to December) and third (May to September) periods were considered to be the most suitable to use oviposition traps than larval surveys.
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The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.
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We address the problem of scheduling a multi-station multiclassqueueing network (MQNET) with server changeover times to minimizesteady-state mean job holding costs. We present new lower boundson the best achievable cost that emerge as the values ofmathematical programming problems (linear, semidefinite, andconvex) over relaxed formulations of the system's achievableperformance region. The constraints on achievable performancedefining these formulations are obtained by formulatingsystem's equilibrium relations. Our contributions include: (1) aflow conservation interpretation and closed formulae for theconstraints previously derived by the potential function method;(2) new work decomposition laws for MQNETs; (3) new constraints(linear, convex, and semidefinite) on the performance region offirst and second moments of queue lengths for MQNETs; (4) a fastbound for a MQNET with N customer classes computed in N steps; (5)two heuristic scheduling policies: a priority-index policy, anda policy extracted from the solution of a linear programmingrelaxation.
Resumo:
Spatial evaluation of Culicidae (Diptera) larvae from different breeding sites: application of a geospatial method and implications for vector control. This study investigates the spatial distribution of urban Culicidae and informs entomological monitoring of species that use artificial containers as larval habitats. Collections of mosquito larvae were conducted in the São Paulo State municipality of Santa Bárbara d' Oeste between 2004 and 2006 during house-to-house visits. A total of 1,891 samples and nine different species were sampled. Species distribution was assessed using the kriging statistical method by extrapolating municipal administrative divisions. The sampling method followed the norms of the municipal health services of the Ministry of Health and can thus be adopted by public health authorities in disease control and delimitation of risk areas. Moreover, this type of survey and analysis can be employed for entomological surveillance of urban vectors that use artificial containers as larval habitat.
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In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.
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New method for rearing Spodoptera frugiperda in laboratory shows that larval cannibalism is not obligatory. Here we show, for the first time, that larvae of the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), can be successfully reared in a cohort-based manner with virtually no cannibalism. FAW larvae were reared since the second instar to pupation in rectangular plastic containers containing 40 individuals with a surprisingly ca. 90% larval survivorship. Adult females from the cohort-based method showed fecundity similar to that already reported on literature for larvae reared individually, and fertility higher than 99%, with the advantage of combining economy of time, space and material resources. These findings suggest that the factors affecting cannibalism of FAW larvae in laboratory rearings need to be reevaluated, whilst the new technique also show potential to increase the efficiency of both small and mass FAW rearings.
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Objetivo: Conocer el punto de vista de docentes que forman prevencionistas acerca de cuáles son los roles y competencias necesarios en los profesionales de la salud laboral para promover la integración de la prevención en la empresa.
Resumo:
This paper describes an optimized model to support QoS by mean of Congestion minimization on LSPs (Label Switching Path). In order to perform this model, we start from a CFA (Capacity and Flow Allocation) model. As this model does not consider the buffer size to calculate the capacity cost, our model- named BCA (Buffer Capacity Allocation)- take into account this issue and it improve the CFA performance. To test our proposal, we perform several simulations; results show that BCA model minimizes LSP congestion and uniformly distributes flows on the network