Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Study of miRNA polymorphisms and their potential association with breast cancer risk in Australian Caucasian populations

This project established a large and well characterised prospective breast cancer DNA biobank and used this biobank to conduct genetic studies in breast cancer. The thesis presented the results of these high-throughput genotyping studies in two separate Australian Caucasian case-control populations and identified association between three novel genetic variants in microRNA genes and breast cancer risk.

G(its)(2) VSR: An Information Theoretic Secure Verifiable Secret Redistribution Protocol for Long-term Archival Storage

Protocols for secure archival storage are becoming increasingly important as the use of digital storage for sensitive documents is gaining wider practice. Wong et al.[8] combined verifiable secret sharing with proactive secret sharing without reconstruction and proposed a verifiable secret redistribution protocol for long term storage. However their protocol requires that each of the receivers is honest during redistribution. We proposed[3] an extension to their protocol wherein we relaxed the requirement that all the recipients should be honest to the condition that only a simple majority amongst the recipients need to be honest during the re(distribution) processes. Further, both of these protocols make use of Feldman's approach for achieving integrity during the (redistribution processes. In this paper, we present a revised version of our earlier protocol, and its adaptation to incorporate Pedersen's approach instead of Feldman's thereby achieving information theoretic secrecy while retaining integrity guarantees.

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

Association of microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) polymorphisms with breast cancer

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing despite our current knowledge on the disease. Ninety-five percent of breast cancer cases correspond to sporadic forms of the disease and are believed to involve an interaction between environmental and genetic determinants. The microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) has been shown to regulate expression of genes involved in breast cancer development and progression. Study of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in this cluster gene could help provide a further understanding of its role in breast cancer. Therefore, this study investigated six SNPs in the MIR17HG using two independent Australian Caucasian case–control populations (GRC-BC and GU-CCQ BB populations) to determine association to breast cancer susceptibility. Genotyping was undertaken using chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS). We found significant association between rs4824505 and breast cancer at the allelic level in both study cohorts (GRC-BC p = 0.01 and GU-CCQ BB p = 0.03). Furthermore, haplotypic analysis of results from our combined population determined a significant association between rs4824505/rs7336610 and breast cancer susceptibility (p = 5 × 10−4). Our study is the first to show that the A allele of rs4824505 and the AC haplotype of rs4824505/rs7336610 are associated with risk of breast cancer development. However, definitive validation of this finding requires larger cohorts or populations in different ethnical backgrounds. Finally, functional studies of these SNPs could provide a deeper understanding of the role that MIR17HG plays in the pathophysiology of breast cancer.

Genetic association analysis of miRNA SNPs implicates MIR145 in breast cancer susceptibility

Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are important small non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in cellular processes related to the pathogenesis of cancer. Genetic variation in miRNA genes could impact their synthesis and cellular effects and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are one example of genetic variants studied in relation to breast cancer. Studies aimed at identifying miRNA SNPs (miR-SNPs) associated with breast malignancies could lead towards further understanding of the disease and to develop clinical applications for early diagnosis and treatment. Methods We genotyped a panel of 24 miR-SNPs using multiplex PCR and chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) analysis in two Caucasian breast cancer case control populations (Primary population: 173 cases and 187 controls and secondary population: 679 cases and 301 controls). Association to breast cancer susceptibility was determined using chi-square (X 2 ) and odds ratio (OR) analysis. Results Statistical analysis showed six miR-SNPs to be non-polymorphic and twelve of our selected miR-SNPs to have no association with breast cancer risk. However, we were able to show association between rs353291 (located in MIR145) and the risk of developing breast cancer in two independent case control cohorts (p = 0.041 and p = 0.023). Conclusions Our study is the first to report an association between a miR-SNP in MIR145 and breast cancer risk in individuals of Caucasian background. This finding requires further validation through genotyping of larger cohorts or in individuals of different ethnicities to determine the potential significance of this finding as well as studies aimed to determine functional significance. Keywords: Association analysis; Breast cancer; microRNA; miR-SNPs; MIR145

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in northern Finland

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in the northern boreal zone in Lapland was studied in two different time scales. Intra-annual growth was monitored in four stands in up to four growing seasons using an approximately biweekly measurement interval. Inter-annual growth was studied using growth records representing seven stands and five geographical locations. All the stands were growing on a dry to semi-dry heath that is a typical site type for pine stands in Finland. The applied methodology is based on applied time-series analysis and multilevel modelling. Intra-annual elongation of the leader shoot correlated with temperature sum accumulation. Height growth ceased when, on average, 41% of the relative temperature sum of the site was achieved (observed minimum and maximum were 38% and 43%). The relative temperature sum was calculated by dividing the actual temperature sum by the long-term mean of the total annual temperature sum for the site. Our results suggest that annual height growth ceases when a location-specific temperature sum threshold is attained. The positive effect of the mean July temperature of the previous year on annual height increment proved to be very strong at high latitudes. The mean November temperature of the year before the previous had a statistically significantly effect on height increment in the three northernmost stands. The effect of mean monthly precipitation on annual height growth was statistically insignificant. There was a non-linear dependence between length and needle density of annual shoots. Exceptionally low height growth results in high needle-density, but the effect is weaker in years of average or good height growth. Radial growth and next year s height growth are both largely controlled by current July temperature. Nevertheless, their growth variation in terms of minimum and maximum is not necessarily strongly correlated. This is partly because height growth is more sensitive to changes in temperature. In addition, the actual effective temperature period is not exactly the same for these two growth components. Yet, there is a long-term balance that was also statistically distinguishable; radial growth correlated significantly with height growth with a lag of 2 years. Temperature periods shorter than a month are more effective variables than mean monthly values, but the improvement is on the scale of modest to good when applying Julian days or growing-degree-days as pointers.

The conservation status of the world’s reptiles

Effective and targeted conservation action requires detailed information about species, their distribution, systematics and ecology as well as the distribution of threat processes which affect them. Knowledge of reptilian diversity remains surprisingly disparate, and innovative means of gaining rapid insight into the status of reptiles are needed in order to highlight urgent conservation cases and inform environmental policy with appropriate biodiversity information in a timely manner. We present the first ever global analysis of extinction risk in reptiles, based on a random representative sample of 1500 species (16% of all currently known species). To our knowledge, our results provide the first analysis of the global conservation status and distribution patterns of reptiles and the threats affecting them, highlighting conservation priorities and knowledge gaps which need to be addressed urgently to ensure the continued survival of the world’s reptiles. Nearly one in five reptilian species are threatened with extinction, with another one in five species classed as Data Deficient. The proportion of threatened reptile species is highest in freshwater environments, tropical regions and on oceanic islands, while data deficiency was highest in tropical areas, such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia, and among fossorial reptiles. Our results emphasise the need for research attention to be focussed on tropical areas which are experiencing the most dramatic rates of habitat loss, on fossorial reptiles for which there is a chronic lack of data, and on certain taxa such as snakes for which extinction risk may currently be underestimated due to lack of population information. Conservation actions specifically need to mitigate the effects of human-induced habitat loss and harvesting, which are the predominant threats to reptiles.

Pro-Environmental Organizational Culture and Climate

This chapter reviews the concepts of organizational culture and climate and applies them to environmental sustainability. Though culture and climate are often used interchangeably, the chapter identifies key distinctions between them and highlights how they can complement one another. The two concepts are used to discuss how the organizational context for environmental sustainability, and employee perceptions thereof, influence individual pro-environmental behavior. Organizational climate is integrated with a dynamic model of organizational culture to describe how pro-environmental cultures and climates emerge. The chapter also highlights how organizations with different motivations can create pro-environmental cultures and climates. The chapter uses the Sierra Nevada Brewing Company as an archetype of an organization with a pro-environmental culture and climate. In the course of the discussion, the chapter nominates several imperatives for research and recommendations for practice.

Solis-Cohen family papers, 1808-1990.

Correspondence, diaries, acount books, pamphlets, and other personal and professional materials pertaining to Jacob da Silva Solis and his descendents.

Fungal Planet description sheets: 281–319

Novel species of fungi described in the present study include the following from South Africa: Alanphillipsia aloeicola from Aloe sp., Arxiella dolichandrae from Dolichandra unguiscati, Ganoderma austroafricanum from Jacaranda mimosifolia, Phacidiella podocarpi and Phaeosphaeria podocarpi from Podocarpus latifolius, Phyllosticta mimusopisicola from Mimusops zeyheri and Sphaerulina pelargonii from Pelargonium sp. Furthermore, Barssia maroccana is described from Cedrus atlantica (Morocco), Codinaea pini from Pinus patula (Uganda), Crucellisporiopsis marquesiae from Marquesia acuminata (Zambia), Dinemasporium ipomoeae from Ipomoea pes-caprae (Vietnam), Diaporthe phragmitis from Phragmites australis (China), Marasmius vladimirii from leaf litter (India), Melanconium hedericola from Hedera helix (Spain), Pluteus albotomentosus and Pluteus extremiorientalis from a mixed forest (Russia), Rachicladosporium eucalypti from Eucalyptus globulus (Ethiopia), Sistotrema epiphyllum from dead leaves of Fagus sylvatica in a forest (The Netherlands), Stagonospora chrysopyla from Scirpus microcarpus (USA) and Trichomerium dioscoreae from Dioscorea sp. (Japan). Novel species from Australia include: Corynespora endiandrae from Endiandra introrsa, Gonatophragmium triuniae from Triunia youngiana, Penicillium coccotrypicola from Archontophoenix cunninghamiana and Phytophthora moyootj from soil. Novelties from Iran include Neocamarosporium chichastianum from soil and Seimatosporium pistaciae from Pistacia vera, Xenosonderhenia eucalypti and Zasmidium eucalyptigenum are newly described from Eucalyptus urophylla in Indonesia. Diaporthe acaciarum and Roussoella acacia are newly described from Acacia tortilis in Tanzania. New species from Italy include Comoclathris spartii from Spartium junceum and Phoma tamaricicola from Tamarix gallica. Novel genera include (Ascomycetes): Acremoniopsis from forest soil and Collarina from water sediments (Spain), Phellinocrescentia from a Phellinus sp. (French Guiana), Neobambusicola from Strelitzia nicolai (South Africa), Neocladophialophora from Quercus robur (Germany), Neophysalospora from Cotymbia henryi (Mozambique) and Xenophaeosphaeria from Grewia sp. (Tanzania). Morphological and culture characteristics along with ITS DNA barcodes are provided for all taxa.

Fungal Planet description sheets: 281-319

Novel species of fungi described in the present study include the following from South Africa: Alanphillipsia aloeicola from Aloe sp., Arxiella dolichandrae from Dolichandra unguiscati, Ganoderma austroafricanum from Jacaranda mimosifolia, Phacidiella podocarpi and Phaeosphaeria podocarpi from Podocarpus latifolius, Phyllosticta mimusopisicola from Mimusops zeyheri and Sphaerulina pelargonii from Pelargonium sp. Furthermore, Barssia maroccana is described from Cedrus atlantica (Morocco), Codinaea pini from Pinus patula (Uganda), Crucellisporiopsis marquesiae from Marquesia acuminata (Zambia), Dinemasporium ipomoeae from Ipomoea pes-caprae (Vietnam), Diaporthe phragmitis from Phragmites australis (China), Marasmius vladimirii from leaf litter (India), Melanconium hedericola from Hedera helix (Spain), Pluteus albotomentosus and Pluteus extremiorientalis from a mixed forest (Russia), Rachicladosporium eucalypti from Eucalyptus globulus (Ethiopia), Sistotrema epiphyllum from dead leaves of Fagus sylvatica in a forest (The Netherlands), Stagonospora chrysopyla from Scirpus microcarpus (USA) and Trichomerium dioscoreae from Dioscorea sp. (Japan). Novel species from Australia include: Corynespora endiandrae from Endiandra introrsa, Gonatophragmium triuniae from Triunia youngiana, Penicillium coccotrypicola from Archontophoenix cunninghamiana and Phytophthora moyootj from soil. Novelties from Iran include Neocamarosporium chichastianum from soil and Seimatosporium pistaciae from Pistacia vera, Xenosonderhenia eucalypti and Zasmidium eucalyptigenum are newly described from Eucalyptus urophylla in Indonesia. Diaporthe acaciarum and Roussoella acacia are newly described from Acacia tortilis in Tanzania. New species from Italy include Comoclathris spartii from Spartium junceum and Phoma tamaricicola from Tamarix gallica. Novel genera include (Ascomycetes): Acremoniopsis from forest soil and Collarina from water sediments (Spain), Phellinocrescentia from a Phellinus sp. (French Guiana), Neobambusicola from Strelitzia nicolai (South Africa), Neocladophialophora from Quercus robur (Germany), Neophysalospora from Cotymbia henryi (Mozambique) and Xenophaeosphaeria from Grewia sp. (Tanzania). Morphological and culture characteristics along with ITS DNA barcodes are provided for all taxa.

The Queensland Mango Genomics Initiative

Mango is an important industry for Queensland, Australia, with an annual value exceeding $80 million. The Kensington Pride cultivar, prized by consumers for desirable taste and colour characteristics, commands 60% of the domestic market though this market share has declined in recent years as new varieties, such as Calypso™, get established with consumers. In 2005, the Queensland Government's Department of Agriculture and Fisheries commenced the Mango Genomics Initiative. This project brought together multidisciplinary teams of breeders, pathologists, sensory scientists, flavour chemists and molecular biologists to develop a suite of tools and inter-related data sets to support the accelerated development of new commercial mango varieties. An overview of the Mango Genomics Initiative will be presented here culminating in the generation of a draft Kensington Pride mango genome sequence.