Aggregate uncertainty, disappointment aversion and the business cycle

We investigate the eff ect of aggregate uncertainty shocks on real variables. More speci fically, we introduce a shock in the volatility of productivity in an RBC model with long-run volatility risk and preferences that exhibit generalised disappointment aversion. We find that, when combined with a negative productivity shock, a volatility shock leads to further decline in real variables, such as output, consumption, hours worked and investment. For instance, out of the 2% decrease in output as a result of both shocks, we attribute 0.25% to the e ffect of an increase in volatility. We also fi nd that this e ffect is the same as the one obtained in a model with Epstein-Zin- Weil preferences, but higher than that of a model with expected utility. Moreover, GDA preferences yield superior asset pricing results, when compared to both Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and expected utility.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Business process in supply chain integration in sugar and ethanol industry

This article presents the application of a diagnosis method in a Brazilian company from the sugar and ethanol industry to identify the level of supply chain integration. The diagnosis method is based on Cooper, Lambert and Pagh reference model for SCM. The method involves nine referential axes established from the eighth key business processes of the reference model.

Utilização de soluções business-to-business (B2B) no segmento downstream da cadeia de suprimentos de uma distribuidora de combustíveis

The pursuit of competitive advantage is lobbying organizations to strategically plan the use of their material, human, technological and financial resources, so that it s possible to add value to the product, even when it is considered a commodity. The scenario for this planning should not be limited to the company in question, but cover an entire supply chain, which is composed of several organizations which have common goals of growth and sustainability of the market. They should form trade links, integrating the chains of individual values, in a perspective of value system. In this supply chain there is a flow of services, payments and information, as products well as. The training of these links can be supported by the adoption of a set of information technology, here called solutions business-to-business (B2B), which will be responsible for the production, storage and distribution of relevant information to business transactions between the companies involved. On this view, this thesis aims to describe the B2B solutions adopted in the downstream segment of the supply chain of a distributor of fuel and the nature of these technologies as well as their impact on the creation of value for business and optimization of the relationship between companies. This is a case study on a national distributor of fuels, from a model of research produced under the influence of theories of integrated logistics system and value of Michael Porter. The analyses came to the conclusion that information technology is perceived as an essential tool to the operation of all activities carried out by the company. Among them, at was also brought the key activities of integrated logistics: administration of applications, inventory management, management transport and customer services, which were highlighted in this study. It was also noticed that even these activities are, in principle, purely operational; they all had in the adoption of strategies for leadership in cost or differentiation, supported by B2B solutions identified, making it more conducive to business and direct customer, the clinic reseller of fuel, to obtain value and benefits of this market segment as competitive

Brazilian Students and Working Capital: An Analysis of Their Decisions When Using Virtual Market Business Games

This study aims to demonstrate that data from business games can be an important resource for improving efficiency and effectiveness of learning. The proposal presented here was developed from preliminary studies of data from Virtual Market games that pointed the possibility of identifying gaps in learning by analyzing the decisions of students. This proposal helps students to refine their learning processes and equips tutors with strategies for teaching and student assessment. The proposal also complements the group discussion and/or debriefing, which are widely used to enhance learning mediated by games. However, from a management perspective the model has the potential to be erroneous and miss opportunities, which cannot be detected because of the dependence on the characteristics of the individual, such as ability to communicate and work together. To illustrate the proposed technique, data sets from two business games were analyzed with the focus on managing working capital and it was found that students had difficulties managing this task. Similar trends were observed in all categories of students in the study-undergraduate, postgraduate and specialization. This discovery led us to the analysis of data for decisions made in the performance of the games, and it was determined that indicators could be developed that were capable of indentifying inconsistencies in the decisions. It was decided to apply some basic concepts of the finance management, such as management of the operational and non-operational expenditures, as well as production management concepts, such as the use of the production capacity. By analyzing the data from the Virtual Market games using the indicator concept, it was possible to detect the lack of domain knowledge of the students. Therefore, these indicators can be used to analyze the decisions of the players and guide them during the game, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency. As these indicators were developed from specific content, they can also be used to develop teaching materials to support learning. Viewed in this light, the proposal adds new possibilities for using business games in learning. In addition to the intrinsic learning that is achieved through playing the games, they also assist in driving the learning process. This study considers the applications and the methodology used.

Model of a game for improving integrated decisions in production management

This paper presents the results obtained with a business game whose model represents the decision making process related to two moments at an industrial company. The first refers to the project of the industrial plant, and the second to its management. The game model was conceived so the player's first decision would establish capacity and other parameters such as quantities of each product to produce, marketing expenses, research and development, quality, advertising, salaries, if purchases will be made in installments or in cash, if there will be credit sales and how many installments will be allowed and the number of workers in the assembly area. An experiment was conducted with employees of a Brazilian company. Data obtained indicate that the players have lack of contents, especially in finances. Although these results cannot be generalized, they confirm prior results with undergraduate and graduate students and they indicate the need for reinforcement in this undergraduate area. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Development of a low-Reynolds-number k-ω model for FENE-P fluids

A low-Reynolds-number k-ω model for Newtonian fluids has been developed to predict drag reduction of viscoelastic fluids described by the FENE-P model. The model is an extension to viscoelastic fluids of the model for Newtonian fluids developed by Bredberg et al. (Int J Heat Fluid Flow 23:731-743, 2002). The performance of the model was assessed using results from direct numerical simulations for fully developed turbulent channel flow of FENE-P fluids. It should only be used for drag reductions of up to 50 % (low and intermediate drag reductions), because of the limiting assumption of turbulence isotropy leading to an under-prediction of k, but compares favourably with results from k-ε models in the literature based on turbulence isotropy. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Growth and concentration among the leading business groups in Mexico

Includes bibliography

Profit margins, financing and investment in the Peruvian business sector (1998-2008)

Includes bibliography

Productive structure and the functional distribution of income: an application of the input-output model

Includes bibliography

Information access law and disclosing of information by joint-stock companies in Brazil: open data and Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) standard

The strategic management of information plays a fundamental role in the organizational management process since the decision-making process depend on the need for survival in a highly competitive market. Companies are constantly concerned about information transparency and good practices of corporate governance (CG) which, in turn, directs relations between the controlling power of the company and investors. In this context, this article presents the relationship between the disclosing of information of joint-stock companies by means of using XBRL, the open data model adopted by the Brazilian government, a model that boosted the publication of Information Access Law (Lei de Acesso à Informação), nº 12,527 of 18 November 2011. Information access should be permeated by a mediation policy in order to subsidize the knowledge construction and decision-making of investors. The XBRL is the main model for the publishing of financial information. The use of XBRL by means of new semantic standard created for Linked Data, strengthens the information dissemination, as well as creates analysis mechanisms and cross-referencing of data with different open databases available on the Internet, providing added value to the data/information accessed by civil society.

Towards a Model of Information Systems User Competency

The ability to utilize information systems (IS) effectively is becoming a necessity for business professionals. However, individuals differ in their abilities to use IS effectively, with some achieving exceptional performance in IS use and others being unable to do so. Therefore, developing a set of skills and attributes to achieve IS user competency, or the ability to realize the fullest potential and the greatest performance from IS use, is important. Various constructs have been identified in the literature to describe IS users with regard to their intentions to use IS and their frequency of IS usage, but studies to describe the relevant characteristics associated with highly competent IS users, or those who have achieved IS user competency, are lacking. This research develops a model of IS user competency by using the Repertory Grid Technique to identify a broad set of characteristics of highly competent IS users. A qualitative analysis was carried out to identify categories and sub-categories of these characteristics. Then, based on the findings, a subset of the model of IS user competency focusing on the IS-specific factors – domain knowledge of and skills in IS, willingness to try and to explore IS, and perception of IS value – was developed and validated using the survey approach. The survey findings suggest that all three factors are relevant and important to IS user competency, with willingness to try and to explore IS being the most significant factor. This research generates a rich set of factors explaining IS user competency, such as perception of IS value. The results not only highlight characteristics that can be fostered in IS users to improve their performance with IS use, but also present research opportunities for IS training and potential hiring criteria for IS users in organizations.

Reference model for implementing an MRP system in a highly diverse component and seasonal lean production environment

Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.