941 resultados para Bayesian rationality
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The evolution and population dynamics of avian coronaviruses (AvCoVs) remain underexplored. In the present study, in-depth phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic studies were conducted to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of AvCoVs detected in wild and synanthropic birds. A total of 500 samples, including tracheal and cloacal swabs collected from 312 wild birds belonging to 42 species, were analysed using molecular assays. A total of 65 samples (13%) from 22 bird species were positive for AvCoV. Molecular evolution analyses revealed that the sequences from samples collected in Brazil did not cluster with any of the AvCoV S1 gene sequences deposited in the GenBank database. Bayesian framework analysis estimated an AvCoV strain from Sweden (1999) as the most recent common ancestor of the AvCoVs detected in this study. Furthermore, the analysis inferred an increase in the AvCoV dynamic demographic population in different wild and synanthropic bird species, suggesting that birds may be potential new hosts responsible for spreading this virus.
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A common breeding strategy is to carry out basic studies to investigate the hypothesis of a single gene controlling the trait (major gene) with or without polygenes of minor effect. In this study we used Bayesian inference to fit genetic additive-dominance models of inheritance to plant breeding experiments with multiple generations. Normal densities with different means, according to the major gene genotype, were considered in a linear model in which the design matrix of the genetic effects had unknown coefficients (which were estimated in individual basis). An actual data set from an inheritance study of partenocarpy in zucchini (Cucurbita pepo L.) was used for illustration. Model fitting included posterior probabilities for all individual genotypes. Analysis agrees with results in the literature but this approach was far more efficient than previous alternatives assuming that design matrix was known for the generations. Partenocarpy in zucchini is controlled by a major gene with important additive effect and partial dominance.
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física
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Neste artigo apresentamos uma análise Bayesiana para o modelo de volatilidade estocástica (SV) e uma forma generalizada deste, cujo objetivo é estimar a volatilidade de séries temporais financeiras. Considerando alguns casos especiais dos modelos SV usamos algoritmos de Monte Carlo em Cadeias de Markov e o software WinBugs para obter sumários a posteriori para as diferentes formas de modelos SV. Introduzimos algumas técnicas Bayesianas de discriminação para a escolha do melhor modelo a ser usado para estimar as volatilidades e fazer previsões de séries financeiras. Um exemplo empírico de aplicação da metodologia é introduzido com a série financeira do IBOVESPA.
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Neste ensaio, ressalta-se a importância da disciplina Psicologia Social na obra de T. W. Adorno e a concepção que formula acerca dessa disciplina. Esse autor defende que há uma nova forma de configuração dos indivíduos, expressada por atitudes e comportamentos individuais padronizados e por um ego frágil, facilmente cooptado por movimentos sociais totalitários. Tais indivíduos surgem em uma sociedade caracterizada por uma forma de dominação calcada na racionalidade administrativa e tecnológica. Para esse autor, a Psicologia Social deveria estudar esse objeto para que, com o esclarecimento produzido e difundido, os indivíduos possam resistir à adesão cega a movimentos sociais irracionais, tal como o fascismo, insistindo que a determinação desses movimentos não é individual, mas social.
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Este artigo analisa atitudes de alunos de um curso de pedagogia frente à educação inclusiva. Parte da hipótese de que o preconceito e a ideologia podem ser obstáculos à inclusão de crianças com deficiência na escola. Foram aplicadas quatro escalas: Manifestação de Preconceito, Atitudes Frente à Educação Inclusiva e Ideologia da Racionalidade Tecnológica, elaboradas por Crochík em 2000, 2003 e 2006, e a escala F, construída por Adorno, Frenkel-Brunswik, Levinson e Sanford em 1950. O estudo foi realizado com 188 estudantes de pedagogia. Os alunos desta amostra tenderam a ser mais favoráveis do que desfavoráveis à educação inclusiva, e foi possível verificar que o preconceito, a adesão à ideologia da racionalidade tecnológica e, implicitamente, ao fascismo, são variáveis que se relacionam às atitudes acerca desse tipo de educação.
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Phylogenetic relationships among species of the Myzorhynchella Section of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) were investigated using the nuclear ribosomal DNA second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2), the nuclear whitegene and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) regions. The recently described Anopheles pristinus and resurrected Anopheles guarani were also included in the study. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses found Anopheles parvus to be the most distantly related species within the Section, a finding that is consistent with morphology. An. pristinus and An. guarani were clearly resolved from Anopheles antunesi and Anopheles lutzii, respectively. An. lutzii collected in the same mountain range as the type locality were found within a strongly supported clade, whereas individuals from the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, tentatively identified as An. lutzii based on adult female external morphology, were distinct from An. lutzii, An. antunesi and from each other, and may therefore represent two new sympatric species. A more detailed examination of An. lutzii sensu latoalong its known geographic range is recommended to resolve these anomalous relationships.
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Para identificar mecanismos de compatibilização entre a lei e as normas técnicas, foram considerados o conceito de saúde e as características do Estado Democrático de Direito. Tomando-se o exemplo brasileiro das normas da política de assistência farmacêutica, concluiu-se que racionalidade jurídica impõe verificar se sua elaboração obedeceu ao requisito constitucional que exige a "participação da comunidade", instaurando um controle democrático e judicial.
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Nucleotide sequences of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) rDNA and partial sequences of the cytochrome coxidase subunit I (COI) mtDNA and white gene nDNA were obtained from specimens of Anopheles nuneztovari A collected in Macapá (state of Amapá), Óbidos, Prainha and Almeirim (state of Pará), Itacoatiara and Parintins (state of Amazonas), Brazil, and compared with previously published sequences of A. nuneztovari s.l. Results of the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses performed using either COI or combined ITS2, COI and white gene sequences suggest that An. nuneztovari B/C is distinct from specimens obtained in the Amazonas/Solimões River basin. Anopheles goeldii, currently in synonymy with An. nuneztovari, was described from individuals collected in Belterra (= Fordlândia) in the Tapajós River, state of Pará, Southern Amazonas River. Morphological comparisons of the characteristics of the male genitalia indicated that An. nuneztovari A and An. goeldii are similar but distinct from An. nuneztovariB/C by the apex of the aedeagus. In considering the results of the phylogenetic analyses and morphological comparisons, An. goeldii is resurrected from synonymy with An. nuneztovari. Additionally, Anopheles dunhamiis reported for the first time in Parintins. This species can be distinguished from An. goeldiiby characters of the male genitalia and molecular data
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Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.
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Background: With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results: In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion: A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance across the Neotropics and portions of Africa.