Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Measuring the biases in self-reported disability status : Evidence from aggregate data

Self-reported health status measures are generally used to analyse Social Security Disability Insurance's (SSDI) application and award decisions as well as the relationship between its generosity and labour force participation. Due to endogeneity and measurement error, the use of self-reported health and disability indicators as explanatory variables in economic models is problematic. We employ county-level aggregate data, instrumental variables and spatial econometric techniques to analyse the determinants of variation in SSDI rates and explicitly account for the endogeneity and measurement error of the self-reported disability measure. Two surprising results are found. First, it is shown that measurement error is the dominating source of the bias and that the main source of measurement error is sampling error. Second, results suggest that there may be synergies for applying for SSDI when the disabled population is larger. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Crossword puzzle attack on NLS

NLS is one of the stream ciphers submitted to the eSTREAM project. We present a distinguishing attack on NLS by Crossword Puzzle (CP) attack method which is introduced in this paper. We build the distinguisher by using linear approximations of both the non-linear feedback shift register (NFSR) and the nonlinear filter function (NLF). Since the bias of the distinguisher depends on the Konst value, which is a key-dependent word, we present the graph showing how the bias of distinguisher vary with Konst. In result, we estimate the bias of the distinguisher to be around O(2^−30). Therefore, we claim that NLS is distinguishable from truly random cipher after observing O(2^60) keystream words. The experiments also show that our distinguishing attack is successful on 90.3% of Konst among 2^32 possible values. We extend the CP attack to NLSv2 which is a tweaked version of NLS. In result, we build a distinguisher which has the bias of around 2− 48. Even though this attack is below the eSTREAM criteria (2^−40), the security margin of NLSv2 seems to be too low.

Distinguishing attack on SOBER-128 with linear masking

We present a distinguishing attack against SOBER-128 with linear masking. We found a linear approximation which has a bias of 2^− − 8.8 for the non-linear filter. The attack applies the observation made by Ekdahl and Johansson that there is a sequence of clocks for which the linear combination of some states vanishes. This linear dependency allows that the linear masking method can be applied. We also show that the bias of the distinguisher can be improved (or estimated more precisely) by considering quadratic terms of the approximation. The probability bias of the quadratic approximation used in the distinguisher is estimated to be equal to O(2^− − 51.8), so that we claim that SOBER-128 is distinguishable from truly random cipher by observing O(2^103.6) keystream words.

Who selects the 'right' directors? An examination of the association between board selection, gender diversity and outcomes

Using a sample of companies from the top 500 listed firms in Australia, we investigate whether the presence of a designated nomination committee and female representation on the nomination committee affect board gender diversity. We also examine whether gender diversity on the board affects firm risk and financial performance. We find that board gender diversity is significantly and positively associated with the presence of a designated nomination committee and that female representation on the nomination committee is a significant explanatory factor of increasing board gender diversity following the release of the 2010 Australian Securities Exchange Corporate Governance Council (ASXCGC) recommendations. Further, our results support the business case for board gender diversity as we find greater gender diversity moderates excessive firm risk which in turn improves firms’ financial performance. Our results are robust after correcting for selection bias and controlling for other board, firm and industry characteristics.

Current control in the magnetron systems for nanofabrication : a comparison

A cylindrical magnetron system and a hybrid inductively coupled plasma-assisted magnetron deposition system were examined experimentally in light of their discharge characteristics with a view to stress the enhanced controllability of the hybrid system. The comparative study has shown that the hybrid magnetron + the inductively coupled plasma system is a flexible, powerful, and convenient tool that has certain advantages as compared with the cylindrical dc magnetrons. In particular, the hybrid system features more linear current-voltage characteristics and the possibility of a bias-independent control of the discharge current.

Partial rectification of the plasmon-induced electrical tunnel current in discontinuous thin gold film at optical frequency

The effect of plasmonoscillations, induced by pulsed laserirradiation, on the DC tunnel current between islands in a discontinuous thin goldfilm is studied. The tunnel current is found to be strongly enhanced by partial rectification of the plasmon-induced AC tunnel currents flowing between adjacent gold islands. The DC tunnel current enhancement is found to increase approximately linearly with the laser intensity and the applied DC bias voltage. The experimental data can be well described by an electron tunnelling model which takes the plasmon-induced AC voltage into account. Thermal heating seems not to contribute to the tunnel current enhancement.

Copper-capped carbon nanocones on silicon : plasma-enabled growth control

Controlled self-organized growth of vertically aligned carbon nanocone arrays in a radio frequency inductively coupled plasma-based process is studied. The experiments have demonstrated that the gaps between the nanocones, density of the nanocone array, and the shape of the nanocones can be effectively controlled by the process parameters such as gas composition (hydrogen content) and electrical bias applied to the substrate. Optical measurements have demonstrated lower reflectance of the nanocone array as compared with a bare Si wafer, thus evidencing their potential for the use in optical devices. The nanocone formation mechanism is explained in terms of redistribution of surface and volumetric fluxes of plasma-generated species in a developing nanocone array and passivation of carbon in narrow gaps where the access of plasma ions is hindered. Extensive numerical simulations were used to support the proposed growth mechanism.

Unidirectional arrays of vertically standing graphenes in reactive plasmas

The possibility for the switch-over of the growth mode from a continuous network to unidirectional arrays of well-separated, self-organized, vertically oriented graphene nanosheets has been demonstrated using a unique, yet simple plasma-based approach. The process enables highly reproducible, catalyst-free synthesis of arrays of graphene nanosheets with reactive open graphitic edges facing upwards. Effective control over the nanosheet length, number density, and the degree of alignment along the electric field direction is achieved by a simple variation of the substrate bias. These results are of interest for environment-friendly fabrication of next-generation nanodevices based on three-dimensional, ordered self-organized nanoarrays of active nanostructures with very large surface areas and aspect ratios, highly reactive edges, and controlled density on the substrate. Our simple and versatile plasma-based approach paves the way for direct integration of such nanoarrays directly into the Si-based nanodevice platform.

Increased size selectivity of Si quantum dots on SiC at low substrate temperatures : an ion-assisted self-organization approach

A simple, effective, and innovative approach based on ion-assisted self-organization is proposed to synthesize size-selected Si quantum dots (QDs) on SiC substrates at low substrate temperatures. Using hybrid numerical simulations, the formation of Si QDs through a self-organization approach is investigated by taking into account two distinct cases of Si QD formation using the ionization energy approximation theory, which considers ionized in-fluxes containing Si3+ and Si1+ ions in the presence of a microscopic nonuniform electric field induced by a variable surface bias. The results show that the highest percentage of the surface coverage by 1 and 2 nm size-selected QDs was achieved using a bias of -20 V and ions in the lowest charge state, namely, Si1+ ions in a low substrate temperature range (227-327 °C). As low substrate temperatures (≤500 °C) are desirable from a technological point of view, because (i) low-temperature deposition techniques are compatible with current thin-film Si-based solar cell fabrication and (ii) high processing temperatures can frequently cause damage to other components in electronic devices and destroy the tandem structure of Si QD-based third-generation solar cells, our results are highly relevant to the development of the third-generation all-Si tandem photovoltaic solar cells.

Disentangling fluxes of energy and matter in plasma-surface interactions : effect of process parameters

The possibility to discriminate between the relative importance of the fluxes of energy and matter in plasma-surface interaction is demonstrated by the energy flux measurements in low-temperature plasmas ignited by the radio frequency discharge (power and pressure ranges 50-250 W and 8-11.5 Pa) in Ar, Ar+ H2, and Ar+ H2 + CH4 gas mixtures typically used in nanoscale synthesis and processing of silicon- and carbon-based nanostructures. It is shown that by varying the gas composition and pressure, the discharge power, and the surface bias one can effectively control the surface temperature and the matter supply rates. The experimental findings are explained in terms of the plasma-specific reactions in the plasma bulk and on the surface.

Tailoring carbon nanotips in the plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition: Effect of the process parameters

Carbon nanotips have been synthesized from a thin carbon film deposited on silicon by bias-enhanced hot filament chemical vapor deposition under different process parameters. The results of scanning electron microscopy indicate that high-quality carbon nanotips can only be obtained under conditions when the ion flux is effectively drawn from the plasma sustained in a CH4 + NH3 + H2 gas mixture. It is shown that the morphology of the carbon nanotips can be controlled by varying the process parameters such as the applied bias, gas pressure, and the NH3 / H2 mass flow ratios. The nanotip formation process is examined through a model that accounts for surface diffusion, in addition to sputtering and deposition processes included in the existing models. This model makes it possible to explain the major difference in the morphologies of the carbon nanotips formed without and with the aid of the plasma as well as to interpret the changes of their aspect ratio caused by the variation in the ion/gas fluxes. Viable ways to optimize the plasma-based process parameters to synthesize high-quality carbon nanotips are suggested. The results are relevant to the development of advanced plasma-/ion-assisted methods of nanoscale synthesis and processing.

Pulsed i-PVD of dielectric nanodot arrays using a nanoporous template

The results of multi-scale numerical simulations of pulsed i-PVD template-assisted nanofabrication of ZnO nanodot arrays on a silicon substrate are presented. The ratios and spatial distributions of the ion fluxes deposited on the lateral and bottom surfaces of the nanopores are computed as a function of the external bias and plasma parameters. The results show that the pulsed bias plays a significant role in the ion current distribution inside the nanopores. The results of numerical experiments of this work suggest that by finely adjusting the pulse voltage, the pulse duration and the duty cycle of the external pulsed bias, the nanopore clogging can be successfully avoided during the deposition and the shapes of the deposited ZnO nanodots can be effectively controlled. A figure is presented.

Suppression of current fluctuations in a crossed E×B field system for low-voltage plasma immersion treatment

Plasma transport in a hybrid dc vacuum arc plasma source for ion deposition and plasma immersion treatment is considered. It is found that external crossed electric and magnetic fields near the substrate can significantly reduce the relative amplitude of ion current fluctuations I-f at the substrate surface. In particular, I-f decreases with the applied magnetic field when the bias voltage exceeds 300 V, thus allowing one to reduce the deviations from the rated process parameters. This phenomenon can be attributed to an interaction between the metal-plasma jet from the arc source and the discharge plasma in the crossed fields. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.