Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Prostitution Ideology and Trafficking Policy: The Impact of Political Approaches to Domestic Sex Work on Human Trafficking Policy in Australia and the United States

Debates over the legitimacy and legality of prostitution have characterised human trafficking discourse for the last two decades. This article identifies the extent to which competing perspectives concerning the legitimacy of prostitution have influenced anti-trafficking policy in Australia and the United States, and argues that each nation-state’s approach to domestic sex work has influenced trafficking legislation. The legal status of prostitution in each country, and feminist influences on prostitution law reform, have had a significant impact on the nature of the legislation adopted.

Demand for ecolabeled seafood in the Japanese market: A conjoint analysis of the impact of information and interaction with other labels

The use of seafood ecolabels is expanding in the world marketplace, but so are labels indicating other product attributes, such as country of origin and wild vs. farmed. The interactive effects of these labels and attributes in evaluating consumers' preferences for ecolabeled seafood are relatively unexplored. In this paper we investigate (1) the direct and interactive effects of seafood ecolabels with other common fish labels, and (2) how consumers' perceptions about the state of marine stocks and the valuation of ecolabels may be affected by different information. We find moderate interactive effects between ecolabels and country of origin labels, whereas the valuation for seafood ecolabels is fairly high. In terms of information, we find that consumers' perceptions about fish stock levels changed (negatively) after receiving information on declining stock levels, and more sensationalized information led to increased change. However, valuation for a seafood ecolabel increases only when the information was perceived positively (credible/interesting); whereas exaggerated information (which was also perceived less credible) had insignificant effects on WTP.

Retaining a diverse workforce: The impact of gender-focused human resource management

Demography theory suggests that high gender diversity leads to high turnover. As turnover is costly, we tested the following: a main effect prediction derived from demography theory, and a moderating effect prediction derived from the relational framework. Data on 198 publicly listed organizations were collected through a human resources decision maker survey and archival databases. The results indicate that higher gender diversity leads to lower turnover in organizations with many gender-focused policies and practices. Findings suggest that organizations can lower their turnover rates by increasing their gender diversity and by implementing gender-focused policies and practices.

The impact of simulated astigmatism on functional measures of visual performance

Uncorrected refractive error, including astigmatism, is a leading cause of reversible visual impairment. While the ability to perform vision-related daily activities is reduced when people are not optimally corrected, only limited research has investigated the impact of uncorrected astigmatism. Given the capacity to perform vision-related daily activities involves integration of a range of visual and cognitive cues, this research examined the impact of simulated astigmatism on visual tasks that also involved cognitive input. The research also examined whether the higher levels of complexity inherent in Chinese characters makes them more susceptible to the effects of astigmatism. The effects of different powers of astigmatism, as well as astigmatism at different axes were investigated in order to determine the minimum level of astigmatism that resulted in a decrement in visual performance.

Impact of mobile phone use on car-following behaviour of young drivers

Multitasking, such as the concurrent use of a mobile phone and operating a motor vehicle, is a significant distraction that impairs driving performance and is becoming a leading cause of motor vehicle crashes. This study investigates the impact of mobile phone conversations on car-following behaviour. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test a group of young Australian drivers aged 18–26 years on a car-following task in three randomised phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free and handheld. Repeated measure ANOVA was applied to examine the effect of mobile phone distraction on selected car-following variables such as driving speed, spacing, and time headway. Overall, drivers tended to select slower driving speeds, larger vehicle spacings, and longer time headways when they were engaged in either hands-free or handheld phone conversations, suggesting possible risk compensatory behaviour. In addition, phone conversations while driving influenced car-following behaviour such that variability was increased in driving speeds, vehicle spacings, and acceleration and decelerations. To further investigate car-following behaviour of distracted drivers, driver time headways were modelled using Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE). After controlling for various exogenous factors, the model predicts an increase of 0.33 s in time headway when a driver is engaged in hands-free phone conversation and a 0.75 s increase for handheld phone conversation. The findings will improve the collective understanding of distraction on driving performance, in particular car following behaviour which is most critical in the determination of rear-end crashes.

The impact of neuropsychological functioning and coping style on perceived stress in individuals with first-episode psychosis and healthy controls

Stress is implicated in the development and course of psychotic illness, but the factors that influence stress levels are not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of neuropsychological functioning and coping styles on perceived stress in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and healthy controls (HC). Thirty-four minimally treated FEP patients from the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre, Melbourne, Australia, and 26 HC participants from a similar demographic area participated in the study. Participants completed a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery as well as the Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations (task-, emotion- and avoidance-focussed coping styles) and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Linear regressions were used to determine the contribution of neuropsychological functioning and coping style to perceived stress in the two groups. In the FEP group, higher levels of emotion-focussed and lower levels of task-focussed coping were associated with elevated stress. Higher premorbid IQ and working memory were also associated with higher subjective stress. In the HC group, higher levels of emotion-focussed coping, and contrary to the FEP group, lower premorbid IQ, working memory and executive functioning, were associated with increased stress. Lower intellectual functioning may provide some protection against perceived stress in FEP.

Impact of particle formation on atmospheric ions and particle number concentrations in an urban environment

A measurement campaign was conducted from 3 to 19 December 2012 at an urban site of Brisbane, Australia. Size distribution of ions and particle number concentrations were measured to investigate the influence of particle formation and biomass burning on atmospheric ion and particle concentrations. Overall ion and particle number concentrations during the measurement period were found to be (-1.2 x 103 cm-3 | +1.6 x 103 cm-3) and 4.4 x 103, respectively. The results of correlation analysis between concentrations of ions and nitrogen oxides indicated that positive and negative ions originated from similar sources, and that vehicle exhaust emissions had a more significant influence on intermediate/large ions, while cluster ions rapidly attached to larger particles once emitted into the atmosphere. Diurnal variations in ion concentration suggested the enrichment of intermediate and large ions on new particle formation event days, indicating that they were involved in the particle formation processes. Elevated total ions, particularly larger ions, and particle number concentrations were found during biomass burning episodes. This could be due to the attachment of cluster ions onto accumulation mode particles or production of charged particles from biomass burning, which were in turn transported to the measurement site. The results of this work enhance scientific understanding of the sources of atmospheric ions in an urban environment, as well as their interactions with particles during particle formation processes.

Investigating the impact of project definition clarity on project performance: Structural equation modeling study

Having a clear project definition is crucial for successful construction projects. It affects design quality, project communication between stakeholders and final project performance in terms of cost, schedule and quality. This study examines the relationship between project definition and final project performance through a structural equation model comprising 4 latent constructs and 6 path hypotheses using data from a questionnaire survey of 120 general contractors in the Malaysian construction industry. The results show that in the study population, all three items impact the project performance, but the link between design quality and project performance is indirect. Instead, the clarity of project definition affects project performance indirectly through design quality and project communication and design quality affects project performance indirectly through project communication. The primary contribution is to provide quantitative confirmation of the more general statements made in the literature from around the world and therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge. Practical implications derived from the finding are also proposed for various project stakeholders. Furthermore, as lack of the clarity of project definition is a very common occurrence in construction projects globally, these findings have important ramifications for all construction projects in expanding and clarifying existing knowledge on what is needed for the successful delivery of construction projects.

Medicines related dysphagia in primary care: The prevalence of and impact on community pharmacists

Dysphagia is a common and problematic symptom characterised by varying degrees of difficulty swallowing food, fluids and medicines of differing consistencies. International primary care based studies have identified that between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 patients have some form of dysphagia, it can affect medicines taking behaviour and healthcare professionals are largely unaware of this1,2. Similar research has not been undertaken in the UK. Adherence related pharmacy based services in the UK provide an opportunity for community pharmacists to identify the problem and facilitate better medicines use. The aim of this pilot study was to estimate the level of patient reported dysphagia in older persons using community pharmacies in the UK, describe how it affects their medicine taking behaviour and identify whether advanced pharmacy services are related to improved awareness of this.

Antioxidant responses to an acute ultra-endurance exercise: Impact on DNA stability and indications for an increased need for nutritive antioxidants in the early recovery phase

Antioxidant requirements have neither been defined for endurance nor been defined for ultra-endurance athletes. To verify whether an acute bout of ultra-endurance exercise modifies the need for nutritive antioxidants, we aimed (1) to investigate the changes of endogenous and exogenous antioxidants in response to an Ironman triathlon; (2) to particularise the relevance of antioxidant responses to the indices of oxidatively damaged blood lipids, blood cell compounds and lymphocyte DNA and (3) to examine whether potential time-points of increased susceptibility to oxidative damage are associated with alterations in the antioxidant status. Blood that was collected from forty-two well-trained male athletes 2 d pre-race, immediately post-race, and 1, 5 and 19 d later was sampled. The key findings of the present study are as follows: (1) Immediately post-race, vitamin C, alpha-tocopherol, and levels of the Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity, the ferric reducing ability of plasma and the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assays increased significantly. Exercise-induced changes in the plasma antioxidant capacity were associated with changes in uric acid, bilirubin and vitamin C. (2) Significant inverse correlations between ORAC levels and indices of oxidatively damaged DNA immediately and 1 d post-race suggest a protective role of the acute antioxidant responses in DNA stability. (3) Significant decreases in carotenoids and gamma-tocopherol 1 d post-race indicate that the antioxidant intake during the first 24 h of recovery following an acute ultra-endurance exercise requires specific attention. Furthermore, the present study illustrates the importance of a diversified and well-balanced diet to maintain a physiological antioxidant status in ultra-endurance athletes in reference to recommendations.

Impact of endurance and ultraendurance exercise on DNA damage

Regular moderate physical activity reduces the risk of several noncommunicable diseases. At the same time, evidence exists for oxidative stress resulting from acute and strenuous exercise by enhanced formation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, which may lead to oxidatively modified lipids, proteins, and possibly negative effects on DNA stability. The limited data on ultraendurance events such as an Ironman triathlon show no persistent DNA damage after the events. However, when considering the effects of endurance exercise comparable to a (half) marathon or a short triathlon distance, no clear conclusions could be drawn. In order to clarify which components of exercise participation, such as duration, intensity, frequency, or training status of the subjects, have an impact on DNA stability, more information is clearly needed that combines the measurement of DNA damage, gene expression, and DNA repair mechanisms before, during, and after exercise of differing intensities and durations.

Visual demands of modern primary classrooms and the impact of refractive anomalies on academic performance

This research investigated the visual demands in modern primary school classrooms and also the impact of common refractive anomalies on a child's ability to perform academic-related tasks. The results showed that relatively high levels of visual acuity, contrast demand and sustained accommodative-convergence are required to perform optimally in the modern classroom environment. It was also demonstrated that relatively low magnitudes of uncorrected refractive error may have a detrimental impact on children's ability to perform academic-related activities at school, with sustained near work further exacerbating this effect. These findings have important implications for both eye care practitioners and education authorities.

Exploring internal communication's impact on psychological contract currencies

Internal communication is a central process by which employees exchange information, build relationships and share organisational values. Fundamental to this process is the psychological contract. However, there is limited understanding of how internal communication influences psychological contract. The study contributes to theory by demonstrating that the dimensions of internal communication independently influence internal stakeholders' psychological contract beliefs. For managers, the findings can be used as a framework to improve internal communication processes and strategies.

The YOU CALL-WE CALL randomized clinical trial: Impact of a multimodal support intervention after a mild stroke

Background Comparison of a multimodal intervention WE CALL (study initiated phone support/information provision) versus a passive intervention YOU CALL (participant can contact a resource person) in individuals with first mild stroke. Methods and Results This study is a single-blinded randomized clinical trial. Primary outcome includes unplanned use of health services (participant diaries) for adverse events and quality of life (Euroquol-5D, Quality of Life Index). Secondary outcomes include planned use of health services (diaries), mood (Beck Depression Inventory II), and participation (Assessment of Life Habits [LIFE-H]). Blind assessments were done at baseline, 6, and 12 months. A mixed model approach for statistical analysis on an intention-to-treat basis was used where the group factor was intervention type and occasion factor time, with a significance level of 0.01. We enrolled 186 patients (WE=92; YOU=94) with a mean age of 62.5±12.5 years, and 42.5% were women. No significant differences were seen between groups at 6 months for any outcomes with both groups improving from baseline on all measures (effect sizes ranged from 0.25 to 0.7). The only significant change for both groups from 6 months to 1 year (n=139) was in the social domains of the LIFE-H (increment in score, 0.4/9±1.3 [95% confidence interval, 0.1–0.7]; effect size, 0.3). Qualitatively, the WE CALL intervention was perceived as reassuring, increased insight, and problem solving while decreasing anxiety. Only 6 of 94 (6.4%) YOU CALL participants availed themselves of the intervention. Conclusions Although the 2 groups improved equally over time, WE CALL intervention was perceived as helpful, whereas YOU CALL intervention was not used.