Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

An evaluation of cyclooxygenase-2 as a prognostic biomarker in mid-gut carcinoid tumours

Background/Aims:Mid-gut carcinoids (MGC) are the most common of the gastrointestinal carcinoid tumours. There is a lack of reliable prognostic indicators for MGC. Cox-2 and Bcl-2 were evaluated as prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of well-characterised non-appendiceal MGC. Methods: Tissue from the primary MGC tumours of 37 patients was subjected to immunohistochemical detection of Cox-2 and Bcl-2. In 9 cases tissue from secondary lesions was also examined. The study assessed whether tumour-associated Cox-2 and Bcl-2 expression were related to patient survival. Results: Cox-2 expression was demonstrated in 30/36 primary tumours. When all tumours were analysed Cox-regression analysis indicated a trend towards worsening survival with increasing Cox-2 histoscore (intensity x proportion; hazard ratio 1.53, 95%CI 0.93, 2.52; p=0.09). Analysis of Cox-2 positive tumours revealed a highly significant association between increasing histoscore and decreased survival (hazard ratio 3.03, 95%CI 1.33, 6.91, p=0.008). Tumour-associated Bcl-2 expression had no effect on patient survival (hazard ratio 1.12, 95% CI 0.42, 2.99 p=0.82). There was no significant association between Cox-2 and Bcl-2 expression (ï?£2 p=0.16), or Cox-2 histoscore and Bcl-2 expression (MWU p=0.59). Analysis of the Cox-2 histoscores of primary tumours and their corresponding secondary lesions, revealed a statistically significant trend towards increasing histoscore in the latter (Wilcoxon p=0.04). Conclusions: This study has provided evidence that Cox-2 expression in primary MGC may be associated with a more negative prognostic outlook.

Effect of ternary phosphate-based glass compositions on osteoblast and osteoblast-like prolferation, differentiation and death in vitro

There is currently a need to expand the range of graft materials available to orthopaedic surgeons. This study investigated the effect of ternary phosphate based glass (PBG) compositions on the behaviour of osteoblast and osteoblast-like cells. PBGs of the formula in mol% P2O5 (50)-CaO (50-X)-Na2O (X), where X was either 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10 were produced and their influence on the proliferation, differentiation and death in vitro of adult human bone marrow stromal cells (hBMSCs) and human fetal osteoblast 1.19 (HFOB 1.19) cells were assessed. Tissue culture plastic (TCP) and hydroxyapatite (HA) were used as controls. Exposure to PBGs in culture inhibited cell adhesion, proliferation and increased cell death in both cell types studied. There was no significant difference in %cell death between the PBGs which was significantly greater than the controls. However, compared to other PBGs, a greater number of cells was found on the 48 mol% CaO which may have been due to either increased adherence, proliferation or both. This composition was capable of supporting osteogenic proliferation and early differentiation and supports the notion that chemical modification of the glass could to lead to a more biologically compatible substrate with the potential to support osteogenic grafting. Realisation of this potential should lead to the development of novel grafting strategies for the treatment of problematic bone defects.

Single-ionization of helium at Ti:sapphire wavelengths: rates and scaling laws

We present a numerical and theoretical study of intense-field single-electron ionization of helium at 390 nm and 780 nm. Accurate ionization rates (over an intensity range of (0.175-34) X10^14 W/ cm^2 at 390 nm, and (0.275 - 14.4) X 10^14 W /cm^2 at 780 nm) are obtained from full-dimensionality integrations of the time-dependent helium-laser Schroedinger equation. We show that the power law of lowest order perturbation theory, modified with a ponderomotive-shifted ionization potential, is capable of modelling the ionization rates over an intensity range that extends up to two orders of magnitude higher than that applicable to perturbation theory alone. Writing the modified perturbation theory in terms of scaled wavelength and intensity variables, we obtain to first approximation a single ionization law for both the 390 nm and 780 nm cases. To model the data in the high intensity limit as well as in the low, a new function is introduced for the rate. This function has, in part, a resemblance to that derived from tunnelling theory but, importantly, retains the correct frequency-dependence and scaling behaviour derived from the perturbative-like models at lower intensities. Comparison with the predictions of classical ADK tunnelling theory confirms that ADK performs poorly in the frequency and intensity domain treated here.

Failure to Achieve PSA Level ≤I ng/ml Following Neo-Adjuvant LHRHa Therapy Predicts for a Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated with Radiotherapy

PURPOSE: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to /=2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapy was 1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of 1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after >/=2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of

Adaptation of a questionnaire to assess the epistemological beliefs of mathematics in secondary school teachers

The objective of the study is to determine the psychometric properties of the Epistemological Beliefs Questionnaire on Mathematics. 171 Secondary School Mathematics Teachers of the Central Region of Cuba participated. The results show acceptable internal consistency. The factorial structure of the scale revealed three major factors, consistent with the Model of the Three Constructs: beliefs about knowledge, about learning and teaching. Irregular levels in the development of the epistemological belief system about mathematics of these teachers were shown, with a tendency among naivety and sophistication poles. In conclusion, the questionnaire is useful for evaluating teacher’s beliefs about mathematics.

Thresholding of noisy shoeprint images based on pixel context

In a typical shoeprint classification and retrieval system, the first step is to segment meaningful basic shapes and patterns in a noisy shoeprint image. This step has significant influence on shape descriptors and shoeprint indexing in the later stages. In this paper, we extend a recently developed denoising technique proposed by Buades, called non-local mean filtering, to give a more general model. In this model, the expected result of an operation on a pixel can be estimated by performing the same operation on all of its reference pixels in the same image. A working pixel’s reference pixels are those pixels whose neighbourhoods are similar to the working pixel’s neighbourhood. Similarity is based on the correlation between the local neighbourhoods of the working pixel and the reference pixel. We incorporate a special instance of this general case into thresholding a very noisy shoeprint image. Visual and quantitative comparisons with two benchmarking techniques, by Otsu and Kittler, are conducted in the last section, giving evidence of the effectiveness of our method for thresholding noisy shoeprint images.

La valoración que los graduados tienen sobre su formación universitaria desde su situación laboral actual

En este artículo analizamos la valoración de los titulados universitarios sobre la formación recibida y su utilidad en la ocupación actual. El objetivo es analizar si existen diferencias por el nivel formativo de origen y el sexo de los estudiantes. A su vez, examinamos si las características de la situación laboral intervienen en estas relaciones afectando diferencialmente según las características sociodemográficas. Los resultados muestran la existencia de diferencias valorativas entre los jóvenes según su origen social y sexo, siendo las mujeres y los jóvenes de clase trabajadora los que valoran mejor su formación recibida. Finalmente, con la introducción de la situación laboral como variable de control constatamos que, en algunos casos, estas diferencias valorativas son debidas al contexto laboral actual de los graduados más que a diferencias sociodemográficas.