企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.

性别、效价及媒体对选择冲突问题解决的影响

Choice conflict is a critical issue in decision making. This study adopted stock transaction as the task to explore the relation between share price level and conflict intensity that the subjects experienced in decision making, and the effect of price level on individual and group choice conflict resolution. The strategy people used to solve choice conflict and gender difference were also examined. Modes of interaction (face to face and through audio media) in group decision making were also studied. The main results are as follows: 1. In individual decision-marking, there is a significant gender effect on decision time. Female subjects will spent more time on the task than male subjects. 2. When making a choice decision, the individual experienced stronger conflict for price shares than for low price shares. The stronger the conflict level they feel, the more difficult to make the choice decision. 3. Four strategies were used to finish the task. Male subjects used simple strategies while female subjects used more complex strategies. 4. In group decision-making, share price level had a significant effect on selection time. People used longer selection time for low price shares than for high price shares. No significant interaction was found between share price level and Modes of interaction. 5. Modes of interaction had significant effect on satisfaction coherence of the group. Under face-to-face condition, people within one group had greater satisfaction coherence. 6. Media had no significant effect on people's perception during the experiment. Satisfaction for cooperation, successful communication and good cooperation were correlated. Self satisfaction and satisfaction of the partners others were also correlated with the satisfaction of the whole task.

History repeats itself: The failure of rational choice models in corporate governance

Marnet, Oliver, 'History repeats itself: The failure of rational choice models in corporate governance', Critical Perspectives on Accounting (2005) 18(2) pp.191-210 RAE2008

People and Politics in France, 1848-1870

Price, Roger, People and Politics in France, 1848-1870 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), pp.x+477 RAE2008

Market allocations of location choice: an example

The purpose of this paper is to make an example which, first, illustrates Starret’s Spatial Imposibility Theorem, when agents have free mobility; and second, allowes us to get a competitive equilibrium with transportation when agents move only if there is a noticeable difference in utilities that justifies the change of location.

O prazer associado ao consumo de alimentos e factores influenciadores

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Farmacêuticas

Scalability of Multicast Delivery for Non-sequential Streaming Access

To serve asynchronous requests using multicast, two categories of techniques, stream merging and periodic broadcasting have been proposed. For sequential streaming access where requests are uninterrupted from the beginning to the end of an object, these techniques are highly scalable: the required server bandwidth for stream merging grows logarithmically as request arrival rate, and the required server bandwidth for periodic broadcasting varies logarithmically as the inverse of start-up delay. However, sequential access is inappropriate to model partial requests and client interactivity observed in various streaming access workloads. This paper analytically and experimentally studies the scalability of multicast delivery under a non-sequential access model where requests start at random points in the object. We show that the required server bandwidth for any protocols providing immediate service grows at least as the square root of request arrival rate, and the required server bandwidth for any protocols providing delayed service grows linearly with the inverse of start-up delay. We also investigate the impact of limited client receiving bandwidth on scalability. We optimize practical protocols which provide immediate service to non-sequential requests. The protocols utilize limited client receiving bandwidth, and they are near-optimal in that the required server bandwidth is very close to its lower bound.

Type Systems for a Network Specification Language With Multiple-Choice Let

When analysing the behavior of complex networked systems, it is often the case that some components within that network are only known to the extent that they belong to one of a set of possible "implementations" – e.g., versions of a specific protocol, class of schedulers, etc. In this report we augment the specification language considered in BUCSTR-2004-021, BUCS-TR-2005-014, BUCS-TR-2005-015, and BUCS-TR-2005-033, to include a non-deterministic multiple-choice let-binding, which allows us to consider compositions of networking subsystems that allow for looser component specifications.

Sequential Memory with ART: A Self-Organizing Network Capable of Learning Sequences of Patterns

A model which extends the adaptive resonance theory model to sequential memory is presented. This new model learns sequences of events and recalls a sequence when presented with parts of the sequence. A sequence can have repeated events and different sequences can share events. The ART model is modified by creating interconnected sublayers within ART's F2 layer. Nodes within F2 learn temporal patterns by forming recency gradients within LTM. Versions of the ART model like ART I, ART 2, and fuzzy ART can be used.

Fuzzy ART Choice Functions

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) models are real-time neural networks for category learning, pattern recognition, and prediction. Unsupervised fuzzy ART and supervised fuzzy ARTMAP networks synthesize fuzzy logic and ART by exploiting the formal similarity between tile computations of fuzzy subsethood and the dynamics of ART category choice, search, and learning. Fuzzy ART self-organizes stable recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input patterns. It generalizes the binary ART 1 model, replacing the set-theoretic intersection (∩) with the fuzzy intersection(∧), or component-wise minimum. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric theory in which the fuzzy intersection and the fuzzy union (∨), or component-wise maximum, play complementary roles. A geometric interpretation of fuzzy ART represents each category as a box that increases in size as weights decrease. This paper analyzes fuzzy ART models that employ various choice functions for category selection. One such function minimizes total weight change during learning. Benchmark simulations compare peformance of fuzzy ARTMAP systems that use different choice functions.

St. Columba, Silnán, and the 'Male Bovine' (VC 2.17)

At Vita Columbae VC 2.17, Adomnán has severely misunderstood a written source which originally described how Columba ordered one party to a dispute, an alleged maleficus ‘evil-doer’ called Silnán, to milk a sick cow in order to settle the dispute by demonstrating that its contaminated milk was the real, hidden cause of the harm which had occasioned the dispute. Adomnán misread a description of a bos maculosus ‘pock-marked bovine’ to refer to a bos masculus ‘male bovine’, and proceeded to misunderstand the story as the description of some form of contest between Columba and a maleficus ‘sorcerer’.

Tryptophan degradation in irritable bowel syndrome: evidence of indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase activation in a male cohort

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common disorder that affects 10–15% of the population. Although characterised by a lack of reliable biological markers, the disease state is increasingly viewed as a disorder of the brain-gut axis. In particular, accumulating evidence points to the involvement of both the central and peripheral serotonergic systems in disease symptomatology. Furthermore, altered tryptophan metabolism and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) activity are hallmarks of many stress-related disorders. The kynurenine pathway of tryptophan degradation may serve to link these findings to the low level immune activation recently described in IBS. In this study, we investigated tryptophan degradation in a male IBS cohort (n = 10) and control subjects (n = 26). Methods: Plasma samples were obtained from patients and healthy controls. Tryptophan and its metabolites were measured by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and neopterin, a sensitive marker of immune activation, was measured using a commercially available ELISA assay. Results: Both kynurenine levels and the kynurenine:tryptophan ratio were significantly increased in the IBS cohort compared with healthy controls. Neopterin was also increased in the IBS subjects and the concentration of the neuroprotective metabolite kynurenic acid was decreased, as was the kynurenic acid:kynurenine ratio. Conclusion: These findings suggest that the activity of IDO, the immunoresponsive enzyme which is responsible for the degradation of tryptophan along this pathway, is enhanced in IBS patients relative to controls. This study provides novel evidence for an immune-mediated degradation of tryptophan in a male IBS population and identifies the kynurenine pathway as a potential source of biomarkers in this debilitating condition.

Market-oriented new product development of functional beverages

Strategic reviews of the Irish Food and Beverage Industry have consistently emphasised the need for food and beverage firms to improve their innovation and marketing capabilities, in order to maintain competitiveness in both domestic and overseas markets. In particular, the functional food and beverages market has been singled out as an extremely important emerging market, which Irish firms could benefit from through an increased technological and market orientation. Although health and wellness have been the most significant drivers of new product development (NPD) in recent years, failure rates for new functional foods and beverages have been reportedly high. In that context, researchers in the US, UK, Denmark and Ireland have reported a marked divergence between NPD practices within food and beverage firms and normative advice for successful product development. The high reported failure rates for new functional foods and beverages suggest a failure to manage customer knowledge effectively, as well as a lack of knowledge management between functional disciplines involved in the NPD process. This research explored the concept of managing customer knowledge at the early stages of the NPD process, and applied it to the development of a range of functional beverages, through the use of advanced concept optimisation research techniques, which provided for a more market-oriented approach to new food product development. A sequential exploratory research design strategy using mixed research methods was chosen for this study. First, the qualitative element of this research investigated customers’ choice motives for orange juice and soft drinks, and explored their attitudes and perceptions towards a range of new functional beverage concepts through a combination of 15 in-depth interviews and 3 focus groups. Second, the quantitative element of this research consisted of 3 conjoint-based questionnaires administered to 400 different customers in each study in order to model their purchase preferences for chilled nutrient-enriched and probiotic orange juices, and stimulant soft drinks. The in-depth interviews identified the key product design attributes that influenced customers’ choice motives for orange juice. The focus group discussions revealed that groups of customers were negative towards the addition of certain functional ingredients to natural foods and beverages. K-means cluster analysis was used to quantitatively identify segments of customers with similar preferences for chilled nutrient-enriched and probiotic orange juices, and stimulant soft drinks. Overall, advanced concept optimisation research methods facilitate the integration of the customer at the early stages of the NPD process, which promotes a multi-disciplinary approach to new food product design. This research illustrated how advanced concept optimisation research methods could contribute towards effective and efficient knowledge management in the new food product development process.

Victimisation of street children in Addis Ababa: factors of resilience and susceptibility

Cross-cultural variations in conceptions of childhood are discussed, particularly with regard to child abuse and child labour. Regardless of cultural background, a universal minimum standard of child rearing is required. The street child literature is reviewed, culminating in an analysis of Ethiopian street children. Theoretically this work is informed by victimology. Concepts shared by victimology and rational choice perspective are discussed, after Fattah (1993a). Victim surveys are described, highlighting their accuracy of crime estimates. Juvenile prostitution, runaways and rape are examined, particularly with regard to their relevance in Addis Ababa. Fifty five male and 135 female street children were interviewed. Interviews with boys focused on delinquency. An age-related pattern emerged, with younger boys less likely to drink, chew khat, steal or be sexually active. Interviews with street girls focused on the differences between girls living on the streets (girls of the street), girls working on the streets (girls on the street) and a sample of homebased girls. Girls of the street come to the street come to the streets for many reasons. Conflicts with a parent or guardian account for almost 50%. They are highly vulnerable to sexual assaults, particularly those 43% who have worked as prostitutes. Girls on the street experience considerably less victimisation. Urban poor girls live in socio-economic circumstances akin to girls on the street but enjoy almost universal protection from victimisation because they do not spend time on the streets. Unprotected by the stability which a family provides, girls of the street experience high victimisation levels. Such victimisation is often the result of reliance on types of work, such as prostitution, which brings the girls into contact with exploitative adults. Resistance to such victimisation is provided by a secure place to sleep, companions, and relatively safe types of work. Such protective factors are more readily available to family based children as compared to those living independently.

Career choice in medicine

Background: Career Choice in Medicine is an important and problematic topic. Medical education has been framed as professional identity development, yet career choice has not been viewed as a matter of identity. My primary aim was to offer new insights by exploring career choice using Figured Worlds theory, a socio-cultural theory of identity. Graduate retention is a challenge for many countries, including Ireland. My secondary aim was to address a gap in the data on postgraduate trainees in Ireland and to use the Irish case to illustrate points transferable to other contexts. Methodology & Methods: This was a predominantly qualitative Mixed Methods programme of research. My qualitative studies were oriented towards social constructionism. I collated existing data from the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland (RCPI) and HSE-MET to describe trainees and their career paths. I surveyed Basic Specialist Training trainees (n=333) about their career plans. I surveyed new trainees (n=527) about their expectations of training and all RCPI trainees about their experiences of training (n=1246). I conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 medical students and doctors. A subgroup (n=6) provided longitudinal data. Figured Worlds theory and Gee’s discourse tools were used for analysis. Results: I have used the case of medical training and career choice in Ireland to explain how social, political and cultural context, and day to day experiences in the cultural world of medicine, shaped doctors’ career choices. My qualitative findings described a unifying model of career choice, consisting of priming, exposure, positioning and open-endedness, which can guide the design of interventions to shape and support career choice. Conclusion: My original contribution has been to demonstrate the fruitfulness of framing career choice in terms of identity development. This represents a turn in the conversation about career choice, which brings new starting points and moves the dialogue forward.