894 resultados para model diagnostic and residual analysis


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Cardiac troponins (cTns) are the recommended biochemical markers in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI). They are very sensitive and tissue-specific but are limited by their delayed appearance in the circulation. Biochemical markers with more rapid release kinetics, e.g. myoglobin and especially heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), have been used to enhance the early identification of MI. The implementation of cTns into clinical practice has shown that cardiomyocyte injury occurs in many other clinical conditions than MI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of modern and highly sensitive cTnI assays on the early diagnosis of MI. In a patient cohort with suspected MI, such a sensitive cTnI assay enhanced the early diagnostic accuracy when compared to a less sensitive cTnI assay and to myoglobin. When compared to H-FABP during the early hours after symptom onset, the sensitive cTnI assay showed at least similar and, after 6 hours, superior diagnostic accuracy. A positive cTnI test result had superior prognostic value when compared to H-FABP, even among early presenters. The prognostic value of cTn in acute heart failure (AHF) was evaluated in 364 patients who participated in the FINN-AKVA study. The patients presented with AHF but no acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Up to half of the patients had elevated cTn levels which were associated with higher 6-month mortality. The magnitude of cTn elevation was directly proportional to mortality. Finally, the clinical spectrum of cTnI elevations was evaluated in 991 cTnI positive emergency department (ED) patients. 83% of the patients had MI and 17% had cTnI elevation due to other clinical conditions. The latter patient group was characterized by lower absolute cTnI levels and – importantly – higher in-hospital mortality when compared to the MI patients. In conclusion, the use of a highly sensitive cTnI assay enhances the early diagnostic accuracy and risk stratification in suspected MI patients. Cardiac troponin elevations are highly prevalent also in other acute clinical conditions and indicate an adverse outcome of these patients.

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The amount of installed wind power has been growing exponentially during the past ten years. As wind turbines have become a significant source of electrical energy, the interactions between the turbines and the electric power network need to be studied more thoroughly than before. Especially, the behavior of the turbines in fault situations is of prime importance; simply disconnecting all wind turbines from the network during a voltage drop is no longer acceptable, since this would contribute to a total network collapse. These requirements have been a contributor to the increased role of simulations in the study and design of the electric drive train of a wind turbine. When planning a wind power investment, the selection of the site and the turbine are crucial for the economic feasibility of the installation. Economic feasibility, on the other hand, is the factor that determines whether or not investment in wind power will continue, contributing to green electricity production and reduction of emissions. In the selection of the installation site and the turbine (siting and site matching), the properties of the electric drive train of the planned turbine have so far been generally not been taken into account. Additionally, although the loss minimization of some of the individual components of the drive train has been studied, the drive train as a whole has received less attention. Furthermore, as a wind turbine will typically operate at a power level lower than the nominal most of the time, efficiency analysis in the nominal operating point is not sufficient. This doctoral dissertation attempts to combine the two aforementioned areas of interest by studying the applicability of time domain simulations in the analysis of the economicfeasibility of a wind turbine. The utilization of a general-purpose time domain simulator, otherwise applied to the study of network interactions and control systems, in the economic analysis of the wind energy conversion system is studied. The main benefits of the simulation-based method over traditional methods based on analytic calculation of losses include the ability to reuse and recombine existing models, the ability to analyze interactions between the components and subsystems in the electric drive train (something which is impossible when considering different subsystems as independent blocks, as is commonly done in theanalytical calculation of efficiencies), the ability to analyze in a rather straightforward manner the effect of selections other than physical components, for example control algorithms, and the ability to verify assumptions of the effects of a particular design change on the efficiency of the whole system. Based on the work, it can be concluded that differences between two configurations can be seen in the economic performance with only minor modifications to the simulation models used in the network interaction and control method study. This eliminates the need ofdeveloping analytic expressions for losses and enables the study of the system as a whole instead of modeling it as series connection of independent blocks with no lossinterdependencies. Three example cases (site matching, component selection, control principle selection) are provided to illustrate the usage of the approach and analyze its performance.

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The objective of this study was to verify the potential of SNAP III (Scheduling and Network Analysis Program) as a support tool for harvesting and wood transport planning in Brazil harvesting subsystem definition and establishment of a compatible route were assessed. Initially, machine operational and production costs were determined in seven subsystems for the study area, and quality indexes, construction and maintenance costs of forest roads were obtained and used as SNAP III program input data. The results showed, that three categories of forest road occurrence were observed in the study area: main, secondary and tertiary which, based on quality index, allowed a medium vehicle speed of about 41, 30 and 24 km/hours and a construction cost of about US$ 5,084.30, US$ 2,275.28 and US$ 1,650.00/km, respectively. The SNAP III program used as a support tool for the planning, was found to have a high potential tool in the harvesting and wood transport planning. The program was capable of defining efficiently, the harvesting subsystem on technical and economical basis, the best wood transport route and the forest road to be used in each period of the horizon planning.

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The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

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The type of artificial light used for inducing photoperiod effect in begonia's seedlings at greenhouse has fundamental importance in the growth and development of these plants and directly reflects in the electrical energy consumption used in this production process. The objective of this research was to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of replacing the current technology of artificial lighting used by the producers (incandescent lamps), by the technology of discharge lamps with the purpose of inducing photoperiod in a greenhouse. The analysis results indicate that the discharge lamp of 32 W Tubular Fluorescent discharge lamp was the one that presented the lower peak demand and lower average energy consumption of 85.01% compared to incandescent filament lamp of 100 W that is the technology of bigger consumption and currently used by the producer.

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A molecular epidemiological study was performed with Babesia bigemina isolates from five geographical regions of Brazil. The genetic analysis was done with random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD), repetitive extragenic palindromic elements-polymerase chain reaction (REP-PCR) and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences-polymerase chain reaction (ERIC-PCR) that showed genetic polymorphism between these isolates and generated fingerprinting. In RAPD, ILO872 and ILO876 primers were able to detect at least one fingerprinting for each B. bigemina isolate. The amplification of B. bigemina DNA fragments by REP-PCR and ERIC-PCR gave evidence for the presence in this haemoprotozoan of the sequences described previously in microorganisms of the bacterial kingdom. For the first time it was demonstrated that both techniques can be used for genetic analysis of a protozoan parasite, although the ERIC-PCR was more discriminatory than REP-PCR. The dendogram with similarity coefficient among isolates showed two clusters and one subcluster. The Northeastern and Mid-Western isolates showed the greatest genetic diversity, while the Southeastern and Southern isolates were the closest. The antigenic analysis was done through indirect fluorescent antibody technique and Western blotting using a panel of monoclonal antibodies directed against epitopes on the merozoite membrane surface, rhoptries and membrane of infected erythrocytes. As expected, the merozoite variable surface antigens, major surface antigen (MSA)-1 and MSA-2 showed antigenic diversity. However, B cell epitopes on rhoptries and infected erythrocytes were conserved among all isolates studied. In this study it was possible to identify variable and conserved antigens, which had already been described as potential immunogens. Considering that an attenuated Babesia clone used as immunogen selected populations capable of evading the immunity induced by this vaccine, it is necessary to evaluate more deeply the cross-protection conferred by genetically more distant Brazilian B. bigemina isolates and make an evaluation of the polymorphism degree of variable antigens such as MSA-1 and MSA-2.

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Sapovirus of the Caliciviridae family is an important agent of acute gastroenteritis in children and piglets. The Sapovirus genus is divided into seven genogroups (G), and strains from the GIII, GVI and GVII are associated with infections in swine. Despite the high prevalence in some countries, there are no studies related to the presence of porcine enteric sapovirus infections in piglets in Brazil. In the present study, 18 fecal specimens from piglets up to 28 days were examined to determine the presence of sapovirus genome by RT-PCR assay, using primers designed to amplify a 331 bp segment of the RNA polymerase gene. In 44.4% (8/18) of fecal samples, an amplified DNA fragment was obtained. One of these fragments was sequenced and submitted to molecular and phylogenetic analysis. This analysis revealed high similarity, with nucleotides (87%) and amino acids (97.8%), to the Cowden strain, the GIII prototype of porcine enteric calicivirus. This is the first description of sapovirus in Brazilian swine herds.

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The presence of iron uptake (irp-2, fyuA, sitA, fepC, iucA), adhesion (iha, lpfA O157/O141, lpfA O157/O154, efa, toxB) and invasion (inv, ial-related DNA sequences and assignment to the four main Escherichia coli phylogenetic groups (A, B1, B2 e D) were determined in 30 commensal E. coli strains isolated from healthy chickens and in 49 APEC strains isolated from chickens presenting clinical signs of septicemia (n=24) swollen head syndrome (n=14) and omphalitis (n=11) by PCR. None of the strains presented DNA sequences related to the inv, ial, efa, and toxB genes. DNA sequences related to lpfA O157/O154, iucA, fepC, and irp-2 genes were significantly found among pathogenic strains, where iucA gene was associated with septicemia and swollen head syndrome and fepC and irp-2 genes were associated with swollen head syndrome strains. Phylogenetic typing showed that commensal and omphalitis strains belonged mainly to phylogenetic Group A and swollen head syndrome to phylogenetic Group D. Septicemic strains were assigned in phylogenetic Groups A and D. These data could suggest that clonal lineage of septicemic APEC strains have a multiple ancestor origin; one from a pathogenic bacteria ancestor and other from a non-pathogenic ancestor that evolved by the acquisition of virulence related sequences through horizontal gene transfer. Swollen head syndrome may constitute a pathogenic clonal group. By the other side, omphalitis strains probably constitute a non-pathogenic clonal group, and could cause omphalitis as an opportunistic infection. The sharing of virulence related sequences by human pathogenic E. coli and APEC strains could indicate that APEC strains could be a source of virulence genes to human strains and could represent a zoonotic risk.

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The current study evaluated the presence of virulence factors by a multiplex PCR technique and then phylogenetically classified the studied strains into groups A, B1, B2 and D, according to Clermont et al. (2000), in 152 intestinal and extraintestinal swine isolates of Escherichia coli. Seventy seven isolates tested were positive for virulence factors. Phylogenetic characterization placed 21 samples into group A, 65 into B1, 19 into B2 and 47 into D. Fourteen urine samples were classified as uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC), nine were both UPEC and enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and four were ETEC only. The most common phylogenetic classifications were B1 and D groups. Of the analyzed fecal samples, 25 were classified as ETEC. Phylogenetically, the group of higher occurrence was B1, followed by B2, A and D. For the small intestine samples, 20 were classified as ETEC. Phylogenetic analysis found groups B1 and A to be the most commons in these samples. Six isolated tissue samples were classified as ETEC and most of them were designated as group D by phylogenetic classification. The phylogenetic analysis could be employed in veterinary laboratories in the E. coli isolates screening, including the possibility of vaccine strain selection and epidemiological searches.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of Toxoplasma gondii and compare the results obtained in the Modified Agglutination Test (MAT), Polimerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and bioassay in mice. In order to accomplish this, 40 free-range chickens from eight farms in neighboring areas to the Pantanal in Nhecolândia, Mato Grosso do Sul, were euthanized and blood samples, brain and heart were collected. The occurrence of anti-T. gondii antibodies found in chickens was 67.5% (27 samples), considering as a cutoff point the dilution 1:5. Among the samples analyzed, 7 (25.9%) were positive in the dilution 1:5, 3 (11.1%) in 1:10, 2 (7.4%) in 1:20, 3 (11.1%) in 1:320, 1 ( 3.7%) in 1:640, 3 (11.1%) in 1:1280, 2 (7.4%) in 1:2560, 4 (14.8%) in 1:5120 and 2 (7.4%) in 1:10.240. From the mixture of tissue samples (brain and heart) from the chickens analyzed, 16 (40%) presented electrophoretic bands compatible with T. gondii by PCR (gene B1). In the comparison of techniques, 59.26% positivity in PCR was revealed among animals that were seropositive in MAT (cutoff 1:5). From 141 inoculated mice, six (4.44%) died of acute toxoplasmosis between 15 and 23 days after inoculation. Surviving mice were sacrificed at 74 days after inoculation, and a total of 28 cysts were found in the brains of 10 distinct groups. From the seropositive hens, 27 bioassays were performed and 11 (40.7%) isolates were obtained. A greater number of isolations happened in mice that were inoculated with tissues from chickens that had high titers for anti-T. gondii antibodies. Chronic infection in mice was observed in nine groups (33.3%) from five different properties. Among the surviving mice, 25.6% were positive for T. gondii in MAT (1:25). From mice positive in PCR, 87.5% were also positive in MAT. Among the PCR-negative mice, 5.2% were positive for T. gondii in MAT. It can be concluded through this study that the occurrence of infecton by T. gondii in the rural properties studied was high, that PCR directed to gene B1 does not confirm the viability of the parasite, but it can be used as a screening method for the selection of chickens infected by T. gondii, that the animals with titer greater than 10 must be prioritized for the selection of animals for bioassay, since for them, the chances of isolating the parasite are greater and that seroconversion in experimentally infected mice is not a good indicator for isolating the agent.

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The hypoferremia that is observed during systemic inflammatory processes is mediated by hepcidin, which is a peptide that is mainly synthesized in the livers of several mammalian species. Hepcidin plays a key role in iron metabolism and in the innate immune system. It's up-regulation is particularly useful during acute inflammation, and it restricts the iron availability that is necessary for the growth of pathogenic microorganisms. In this study, the hepcidin mRNA of Equus asinus has been characterized, and the expression of donkey hepcidin in the liver has been determined. The donkey hepcidin sequence has an open reading frame (ORF) of 261 nucleotides, and the deduced corresponding protein sequence has 86 amino acids. The amino acid sequence of donkey hepcidin was most homologous to Equus caballus (98%). The mature donkey hepcidin sequence (25 amino acids) was 100% homologous to the equine mature hepcidin and has eight conserved cysteine residues that are found in all of the investigated hepcidin sequences. The expression profile of donkey hepcidin in the liver was high and was similar to the reference gene expression. The donkey hepcidin sequence was deposited in GenBankTM (HQ902884) and may be useful for additional studies on iron metabolism and the inflammatory process in this species.

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Ett ämne som väckt intresse både inom industrin och forskningen är hantering av kundförhållanden (CRM, eng. Customer Relationship Management), dvs. en kundorienterad affärsstrategi där företagen från att ha varit produktorienterade väljer att bli mera kundcentrerade. Numera kan kundernas beteende och aktiviteter lätt registreras och sparas med hjälp av integrerade affärssystem (ERP, eng. Enterprise Resource Planning) och datalager (DW, eng. Data Warehousing). Kunder med olika preferenser och köpbeteende skapar sin egen ”signatur” i synnerhet via användningen av kundkort, vilket möjliggör mångsidig modellering av kundernas köpbeteende. För att få en översikt av kundernas köpbeteende och deras lönsamhet, används ofta kundsegmentering som en metod för att indela kunderna i grupper utgående från deras likheter. De mest använda metoderna för kundsegmentering är analytiska modeller konstruerade för en viss tidsperiod. Dessa modeller beaktar inte att kundernas beteende kan förändras med tiden. I föreliggande avhandling skapas en holistisk översikt av kundernas karaktär och köpbeteende som utöver de konventionella segmenteringsmodellerna även beaktar dynamiken i köpbeteendet. Dynamiken i en kundsegmenteringsmodell innefattar förändringar i segmentens struktur och innehåll, samt förändringen av individuella kunders tillhörighet i ett segment (s.k migrationsanalyser). Vardera förändringen modelleras, analyseras och exemplifieras med visuella datautvinningstekniker, främst med självorganiserande kartor (SOM, eng. Self-Organizing Maps) och självorganiserande tidskartor (SOTM), en vidareutveckling av SOM. Visualiseringen anteciperas underlätta tolkningen av identifierade mönster och göra processen med kunskapsöverföring mellan den som gör analysen och beslutsfattaren smidigare. Asiakkuudenhallinta (CRM) eli organisaation muuttaminen tuotepainotteisesta asiakaskeskeiseksi on herättänyt mielenkiintoa niin yliopisto- kuin yritysmaailmassakin. Asiakkaiden käyttäytymistä ja toimintaa pystytään nykyään helposti tallentamaan ja varastoimaan toiminnanohjausjärjestelmien ja tietovarastojen avulla; asiakkaat jättävät jatkuvasti piirteistään ja ostokäyttäytymisestään kertovia tietojälkiä, joita voidaan analysoida. On tavallista, että asiakkaat poikkeavat toisistaan eri tavoin, ja heidän mieltymyksensä kuten myös ostokäyttäytymisensä saattavat olla hyvinkin erilaisia. Asiakaskäyttäytymisen monimuotoisuuteen ja tuottavuuteen paneuduttaessa käytetäänkin laajalti asiakassegmentointia eli asiakkaiden jakamista ryhmiin samankaltaisuuden perusteella. Perinteiset asiakassegmentoinnin ratkaisut ovat usein yksittäisiä analyyttisia malleja, jotka on tehty tietyn aikajakson perusteella. Tämän vuoksi ne monesti jättävät huomioimatta sen, että asiakkaiden käyttäytyminen saattaa ajan kuluessa muuttua. Tässä väitöskirjassa pyritäänkin tarjoamaan holistinen kuva asiakkaiden ominaisuuksista ja ostokäyttäytymisestä tarkastelemalla kahta muutosvoimaa tiettyyn aikarajaukseen perustuvien perinteisten segmentointimallien lisäksi. Nämä kaksi asiakassegmentointimallin dynamiikkaa ovat muutokset segmenttien rakenteessa ja muutokset yksittäisten asiakkaiden kuulumisessa ryhmään. Ensimmäistä dynamiikkaa lähestytään ajallisen asiakassegmentoinnin avulla, jossa visualisoidaan ajan kuluessa tapahtuvat muutokset segmenttien rakenteissa ja profiileissa. Toista dynamiikkaa taas lähestytään käyttäen nk. segmenttisiirtymien analyysia, jossa visuaalisin keinoin tunnistetaan samantyyppisesti segmentistä toiseen vaihtavat asiakkaat. Visualisoinnin tehtävänä on tukea havaittujen kaavojen tulkitsemista sekä helpottaa tiedonsiirtoa analysoijan ja päättäjien välillä. Visuaalisia tiedonlouhintamenetelmiä, kuten itseorganisoivia karttoja ja niiden laajennuksia, käytetään osoittamaan näiden menetelmien hyödyllisyys sekä asiakkuudenhallinnassa yleisesti että erityisesti asiakassegmentoinnissa.