Risque de prix et décisions de production et d'exportation : le cas de l'agriculture au Québec

Cette thèse porte sur l’effet du risque de prix sur la décision des agriculteurs et les transformateurs québécois. Elle se divise en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre revient sur la littérature. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’effet du risque de prix sur la production de trois produits, à savoir le maïs grain, la viande de porc et la viande d’agneau dans la province Québec. Le dernier chapitre est centré sur l’analyse de changement des préférences du transformateur québécois de porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Le premier chapitre vise à montrer l’importance de l’effet du risque du prix sur la quantité produite par les agriculteurs, tel que mis en évidence par la littérature. En effet, la littérature révèle l’importance du risque de prix à l’exportation sur le commerce international. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’étude des facteurs du risque (les anticipations des prix et la volatilité des prix) dans la fonction de l’offre. Un modèle d’hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle autorégressive généralisée (GARCH) est utilisé afin de modéliser ces facteurs du risque. Les paramètres du modèle sont estimés par la méthode de l’Information Complète Maximum Vraisemblance (FIML). Les résultats empiriques montrent l’effet négatif de la volatilité du prix sur la production alors que la prévisibilité des prix a un effet positif sur la quantité produite. Comme attendu, nous constatons que l’application du programme d’assurance-stabilisation des revenus agricoles (ASRA) au Québec induit une plus importante sensibilité de l’offre par rapport au prix effectif (le prix incluant la compensation de l’ASRA) que par rapport au prix du marché. Par ailleurs, l’offre est moins sensible au prix des intrants qu’au prix de l’output. La diminution de l’aversion au risque de producteur est une autre conséquence de l’application de ce programme. En outre, l’estimation de la prime marginale relative au risque révèle que le producteur du maïs est le producteur le moins averse au risque (comparativement à celui de porc ou d’agneau). Le troisième chapitre consiste en l’analyse du changement de préférence du transformateur québécois du porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Nous supposons que le transformateur a la possibilité de fournir les produits sur deux marchés : étranger et local. Le modèle théorique explique l’offre relative comme étant une fonction à la fois d’anticipation relative et de volatilité relative des prix. Ainsi, ce modèle révèle que la sensibilité de l’offre relative par rapport à la volatilité relative de prix dépend de deux facteurs : d’une part, la part de l’exportation dans la production totale et d’autre part, l’élasticité de substitution entre les deux marchés. Un modèle à correction d’erreurs est utilisé lors d’estimation des paramètres du modèle. Les résultats montrent l’effet positif et significatif de l’anticipation relative du prix sur l’offre relative à court terme. Ces résultats montrent donc qu’une hausse de la volatilité du prix sur le marché étranger par rapport à celle sur le marché local entraine une baisse de l’offre relative sur le marché étranger à long terme. De plus, selon les résultats, les marchés étranger et local sont plus substituables à long terme qu’à court terme.

Étude paramétrique de la propagation d'ondes ultrasonores guidées dans les structures aéronautiques

La mise en oeuvre de systèmes de détection de défauts à même les structures ou infrastructures en génie est le sujet d’étude du Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). Le SHM est une solution efficace à la réduction des coûts associés à la maintenance de structures. Une stratégie prometteuse parmi les technologies émergentes en SHM est fondée sur l’utilisation d’ondes ultrasonores guidées. Ces méthodes sont basées sur le fait que les structures minces agissent comme guides d’ondes pour les ondes ultrasonores. Puisque les structures aéronautiques sont majoritairement minces, les ondes guidées constituent une stratégie pertinente afin d’inspecter de grandes surfaces. Toutefois, les assemblages aéronautiques sont constitués de plusieurs éléments modifiant et compliquant la propagation des ondes guidées dans celles-ci. En effet, la présence de rivets, de raidisseurs, de joints ainsi que la variation de la nature des matériaux utilisés complexifie la propagation des ondes guidées. Pour envisager la mise en oeuvre de systèmes de détection basés sur les ondes guidées, une compréhension des interactions intervenant dans ces diverses structures est nécessaire. Un tel travail entre dans le cadre du projet de collaboration CRIAQ DPHM 501 dont l’objectif principal est de développer une banque de connaissances quant à la propagation d’ondes guidées dans les structures aéronautiques. Le travail de ce mémoire présente d’abord les résultats d’études paramétriques numériques obtenus dans le cadre de ce projet CRIAQ. Puis, afin de faciliter la caractérisation expérimentale de la propagation des ondes guidées, une seconde partie du travail a porté sur le développement d’un absorbant d’ondes guidées. Cet absorbant permet également d’envisager l’extension des régions observables par les systèmes SHM. Ce deuxième volet contribue donc également au projet CRIAQ par l’atténuation de réflexions non désirées dans l’étude menée sur les maintes structures aéronautiques nourrissant la banque de connaissances. La première partie de ce mémoire relève l’état des connaissances de la littérature sur la propagation d’ondes guidées dans les structures aéronautiques. La deuxième partie présente rapidement le formalisme derrière les ondes de Lamb ainsi que les différentes approches analytiques pour caractériser les interactions entre ondes guidées et discontinuités. Par la suite, les outils utilisés pour effectuer les simulations par éléments finis sont présentés et validés par le biais d’une phase expérimentale. La deuxième partie se termine avec la présentation des différentes structures et discontinuités étudiées dans le cadre du projet CRIAQ. Finalement, la troisième et dernière partie de ce mémoire présente les travaux numériques orientés vers la conception d’un absorbant idéal pour ondes guidées. Afin d’y parvenir, une étude paramétrique quant à la forme, les dimensions et les propriétés mécaniques de l’absorbant est entreprise. Enfin, une étude expérimentale permettant de valider les résultats numériques est présentée.

Taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales: update 2016

In 2016, the order Mononegavirales was emended through the addition of two new families (Mymonaviridae and Sunviridae), the elevation of the paramyxoviral subfamily Pneumovirinae to family status (Pneumoviridae), the addition of five free-floating genera (Anphevirus, Arlivirus, Chengtivirus, Crustavirus, and Wastrivirus), and several other changes at the genus and species levels. This article presents the updated taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales as now accepted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV).

O lugar da hispanoamérica no processo de ensino-aprendizagem de espanhol como língua estrangeira no ensino secundário português

Tendo em conta um enfoque comunicativo experiencial (Fernández- Corbacho, 2014) e uma pedagogia crítica emancipatória (Jiménez Raya, Lamb & Vieira, 2007), enriquecida por enfoques multissensoriais (Arslan, 2009), é nossa intenção, com este projeto, contribuir para a implementação de práticas que espelhem as variedades linguísticas e culturais da Hispanoamérica (Liceras, 1995; Beave, 2000) na aula de espanhol como língua estrangeira no ensino secundário português. Neste estudo, através duma perspetiva metodológica de índole qualitativa, pretendemos, como ponto de partida, analisar: a) as representações de alunos portugueses sobre o lugar da Hispanoamérica no processo de ensino-aprendizagem de espanhol como língua estrangeira (Altmann & Vences, 2004; Pérez, 2003), através de inquéritos por questionário; e, ainda, b) as abordagens das variedades linguísticas e culturais do espanhol, que surgem nos manuais utilizados no ensino secundário português. Por outro lado, através de um estudo de caso (Benson, Chik, Gao, Huang & Wang, 2009), procurámos evidenciar uma mostra de possíveis boas práticas didático-pedagógicas e materiais, com vista a um trabalho sistemático e próativo com as variedades linguísticas e culturais do espanhol, baseado numa (hiper)pedagogia crítica e encarando a língua enquanto objeto manipulável e potenciador de cidadãos verdadeiramente conscientes do mundo. Para tal, criámos materiais físicos e digitais, que foram posteriormente implementados com alunos do 11º ano de escolaridade, no nível de iniciação de espanhol, num agrupamento de escolas da região de Aveiro. Os resultados mostram que práticas e materiais desta natureza poderão favorecer aprendizagens comunicativas experienciais, quanto à criação de futuros cidadãos críticos e ativos, fomentando o desenvolvimento das suas competências comunicativa plurilingue e pluricultural e duma consciência cultural crítica (Byram, Gribkova & Starkey, 2002) dos alunos, no contexto de ensino-aprendizagem do ensino secundário.

Too Much to Belong: Latina/o Racialization, Obesity Epidemic Discourse, and Unassimilable Corporeal Excess

This project examines the discursive constructions of Latina/o bodies as excessive in order to examine how Latinas/os are excluded from belonging to the U.S. nation-state. By approaching Latina/o Studies from a Fat Studies perspective, it works to more adequately address the role of embodiment in determining processes of racialization that directly impact Latinas/os in the United States, especially in light of the role of race and racism in “obesity epidemic” discourse. This dissertation argues that cultural and even physiological explanations about the Latina/o propensity for “overweight” and “obesity” create a discourse that marks the Latina/o body as demonstrating an unassimilable corporeal excess. In turn, the rhetoric of “diversity” and “multiculturalism” are rendered inapplicable to Latinas/os, as demonstrated by both nativist and seemingly pro-immigrant discourses that posit Latina/o physical excess in the form of fatness as detrimental and even dangerous to the U.S. nation-state.

Estimation of whole body muscle, adipose/fat mass, validation in health and during weight loss. Development of prediction equations using MRI as reference method

Background: Body composition is affected by diseases, and affects responses to medical treatments, dosage of medicines, etc., while an abnormal body composition contributes to the causation of many chronic diseases. While we have reliable biochemical tests for certain nutritional parameters of body composition, such as iron or iodine status, and we have harnessed nuclear physics to estimate the body’s content of trace elements, the very basic quantification of body fat content and muscle mass remains highly problematic. Both body fat and muscle mass are vitally important, as they have opposing influences on chronic disease, but they have seldom been estimated as part of population health surveillance. Instead, most national surveys have merely reported BMI and waist, or sometimes the waist/hip ratio; these indices are convenient but do not have any specific biological meaning. Anthropometry offers a practical and inexpensive method for muscle and fat estimation in clinical and epidemiological settings; however, its use is imperfect due to many limitations, such as a shortage of reference data, misuse of terminology, unclear assumptions, and the absence of properly validated anthropometric equations. To date, anthropometric methods are not sensitive enough to detect muscle and fat loss. Aims: The aim of this thesis is to estimate Adipose/fat and muscle mass in health disease and during weight loss through; 1. evaluating and critiquing the literature, to identify the best-published prediction equations for adipose/fat and muscle mass estimation; 2. to derive and validate adipose tissue and muscle mass prediction equations; and 3.to evaluate the prediction equations along with anthropometric indices and the best equations retrieved from the literature in health, metabolic illness and during weight loss. Methods: a Systematic review using Cochrane Review method was used for reviewing muscle mass estimation papers that used MRI as the reference method. Fat mass estimation papers were critically reviewed. Mixed ethnic, age and body mass data that underwent whole body magnetic resonance imaging to quantify adipose tissue and muscle mass (dependent variable) and anthropometry (independent variable) were used in the derivation/validation analysis. Multiple regression and Bland-Altman plot were applied to evaluate the prediction equations. To determine how well the equations identify metabolic illness, English and Scottish health surveys were studied. Statistical analysis using multiple regression and binary logistic regression were applied to assess model fit and associations. Also, populations were divided into quintiles and relative risk was analysed. Finally, the prediction equations were evaluated by applying them to a pilot study of 10 subjects who underwent whole-body MRI, anthropometric measurements and muscle strength before and after weight loss to determine how well the equations identify adipose/fat mass and muscle mass change. Results: The estimation of fat mass has serious problems. Despite advances in technology and science, prediction equations for the estimation of fat mass depend on limited historical reference data and remain dependent upon assumptions that have not yet been properly validated for different population groups. Muscle mass does not have the same conceptual problems; however, its measurement is still problematic and reference data are scarce. The derivation and validation analysis in this thesis was satisfactory, compared to prediction equations in the literature they were similar or even better. Applying the prediction equations in metabolic illness and during weight loss presented an understanding on how well the equations identify metabolic illness showing significant associations with diabetes, hypertension, HbA1c and blood pressure. And moderate to high correlations with MRI-measured adipose tissue and muscle mass before and after weight loss. Conclusion: Adipose tissue mass and to an extent muscle mass can now be estimated for many purposes as population or groups means. However, these equations must not be used for assessing fatness and categorising individuals. Further exploration in different populations and health surveys would be valuable.

Musculosidade e composição da perna de ovinos de diferentes genótipos e idades ao abate

Foram avaliadas as características morfológicas da carcaça, musculosidade e composição tecidual da perna de cordeiros criados em regime de pasto, provenientes de ovelhas Romney, acasaladas com três raças paternas (Romney, East Friesian x (Finn x Texel) e Finn x Poll Dorset). Aos 150 e 300 dias de idade, os cordeiros foram abatidos em dois lotes, cada um com 15 animais de cada raça paterna, num total de 90 animais. O grupo oriundo de animais East Friesian x (Finn x Texel) apresentou maior quantidade de músculo na perna (1.975 g) e, em comparação ao grupo Romney, semelhante musculosidade da perna (0,45) e maior relação músculo:osso (7x6,69). A musculosidade da perna nos animais descendentes de Finn x Poll Dorset foi menor (0,44), quando comparada à dos demais grupos. Cordeiros abatidos mais tardiamente apresentaram carcaças mais longas e magras, provavelmente pelas condições adversas do verão e do outono, em que são típicas a menor taxa de crescimento e a qualidade inferior de forragem. O genótipo e a idade de abate influem nas características morfológicas da carcaça, no índice de musculosidade e de composição tecidual da perna dos cordeiros.

Enhancing bioactive fatty acids of the meat from lambs reared in intensive systems through nutritional modulation

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Veterinárias, especialidade de Produção Animal

Patterns of sedentary behavior : insights from observational and experimental studies on body composition and energy expenditure

It is recognized that sedentary behavior (SB) has deleterious effects on numerous health outcomes and it appears that physiological mechanisms underlying these harms are distinct from the ones explaining moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) benefits. Sedentary behavior represents a large portion of human’s life and is increasing with technological development. A new current of opinion supports the idea that the manner SB is accumulated plays an important role. This dissertation presents six research studies conducted under the scope of SB. In the methodological area, the first study highlighted the magnitude of potential errors in estimating SB and its patterns from common alternative methods (accelerometer and heart rate monitor) compared to ActivPAL. This study presented the accelerometer as a valid method at a group level. Two studies (2 and 5) were performed in older adults (the most sedentary group in the population) to test the associations for SB patterns with abdominal obesity using accelerometry. The findings showed positive graded associations for prolonged sedentary bouts with abdominal obesity and showed that those who interrupted SB more frequently were less likely to present abdominal obesity. Therefore, public health recommendations regarding breaking up SB more often are expected to be relevant. The associations between sedentary patterns and abdominal obesity were independent of MVPA in older adults. However, the low MVPA in this group makes it unclear whether this independent relationship still exists if highly active persons are analysed. Study 3 inovates by examining the association of SB with body fatness in highly trained athletes and found SB to predict total fat mass and trunk fat mass, independently of age and weekly training time. Study 4 also brings novelty to this research field by quantifying the metabolic and energetic cost of the transition from sitting to standing and then sitting back down (a break), informing about the modest energetic costs (0.32 kcal·min−1). Finally, from a successful multicomponent pilot intervention to reduce and break up SB (study 6), an important behavioral resistance to make more sit/stand transitions despite successfully reducing sitting time (~ 1.85 hours·day-1) was found, which may be relevant to inform future behavioral modification programs. The present work provides observational and experimental evidence on the relation for SB patterns with body composition outcomes and energy regulation that may be relevant for public health interventions.

Características de qualidade da carne de ovinos de diferentes genótipos e idades ao abate

Cordeiros criados em regime de pasto, provenientes de ovelhas Romney acasaladas com três raças paternas (Romney, East Friesian x (Finn x Texel) e Finn x Poll Dorset), foram avaliados quanto às características de qualidade da carne. Os cordeiros foram abatidos aos 150 e 300 dias de idade, cada lote com 15 animais de cada raça paterna, totalizando 90 animais. A carne dos cordeiros Romney foi mais macia que a dos demais genótipos. O pH final do músculo Semimembranosus dos cordeiros abatidos mais precocemente foi superior (5,61) ao dos abatidos mais tardiamente (5,58), entretanto estes últimos apresentaram carne com menor maciez (11,16 kg) que os abatidos aos 150 dias de idade (7,45 kg). Com relação à cor, a luminosidade da carne de cordeiros abatidos aos 150 dias foi maior (38,20) que a dos abatidos mais tardiamente (36,80), mas não foi afetada pelo genótipo. Concluiu-se que o genótipo e a idade de abate influíram na produção e qualidade da carne ovina.

On the optimaL response of q-vortex

Wingtip vortices represent a hazard for the stability of the following airplane in airport highways. These flows have been usually modeled as swirling jets/wakes, which are known to be highly unstable and susceptible to breakdown at high Reynolds numbers for certain flow conditions, but different to the ones present in real flying airplanes. A very recent study based on Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) shows that a large variety of helical responses can be excited and amplified when a harmonic inlet forcing is imposed. In this work, the optimal response of q-vortex (both axial vorticity and axial velocity can be modeled by a Gaussian profile) is studied by considering the time-harmonically forced problem with a certain frequency ω. We first reproduce Guo and Sun’s results for the Lamb-Oseen vortex (no axial flow) to validate our numerical code. In the axisymmetric case m = 0, the system response is the largest when the input frequency is null. The axial flow has a weak influence in the response for any axial velocity intensity. We also consider helical perturbations |m| = 1. These perturbations are excited through a resonance mechanism at moderate and large wavelengths as it is shown in Figure 1. In addition, Figure 2 shows that the frequency at which the optimal gain is obtained is not a continuous function of the axial wavenumber k. At smaller wavelengths, large response is excited by steady forcing. Regarding the axial flow, the unstable response is the largest when the axial velocity intensity, 1/q, is near to zero. For perturbations with higher azimuthal wavenumbers |m| > 1, the magnitudes of the response are smaller than those for helical modes. In order to establish an alternative validation, DNS has been carried out by using a pseudospectral Fourier formulation finding a very good agreement.

Modelos linear e não linear em análises genéticas para sobrevivência de crias de ovinos da raça Santa Inês.

Resumo: Registros de sobrevivência do nascimento ao desmame de 3846 crias de ovinos da raça Santa Inês foram analisados por modelos de reprodutor linear e não linear (modelo de limiar), para estimar componentes de variância e herdabilidade. Os modelos usados para sobrevivência, analisada como característica da cria, incluíram os efeitos fixos de sexo, da combinação tipo de nascimento-criação da cria e da idade da ovelha ao parto, efeito da covariável peso da cria ao nascer e efeitos aleatórios de reprodutor, da classe rebanho-ano-estação e do resíduo. Componentes de variância para o modelo linear foram estimados pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita (REML) e para o modelo não linear por uma aproximação da máxima verossimilhança marginal (MML), pelo programa CMMAT2. O coeficiente de herdabilidade (h2) estimado pelo modelo de limiar foi de 0,29, e pelo modelo linear, 0,14. A correlação de ordem de Spearman entre as capacidades de transmissão dos reprodutores, com base nos dois modelos foi de 0,96. As estimativas de h2 obtidas indicam a possibilidade de se obter, por seleção, ganho genético para sobrevivência. [Linear and nonlinear models in genetic analyses of lamb survival in the Santa Inês hair sheep breed]. Abstract: Records of 3,846 lambs survival from birth to weaning of Santa Inês hair sheep breed, were analyzed by linear and non linear sire models (threshold model) to estimate variance components and heritability (h2). The models that were used to analyze survival, considered in this study as a lamb trait, included the fixed effects of sex of the lamb, combination of type of birth-rearing of lamb, and age of ewe, birth weight of lamb as covariate, and random effects of sire, herd-year-season and residual. Variance components were obtained using restricted maximum likelihood (REML), in linear model and marginal maximum likelihood in threshold model through CMMAT2 program. Estimate of heritability (h2) obtained by threshold model was 0.29 and by linear model was 0.14. Rank correlation of Spearman, between sire solutions based on the two models was 0.96. The obtained estimates in this study indicate that it is possible to acquire genetic gain to survival by selection.

Effect of Preventive Chlamydia abortus Vaccination in Offspring Development in Sheep Challenged Experimentally

Ovine enzootic abortion, caused by Chlamydia abortus, leads to important economic losses worldwide. In addition to reproductive failures, infection may impact lamb growth during the first weeks after birth, yet this effect has not been well characterized. Vaccination can help to control the disease but variable efficacy values have been described, possibly related with factors associated with the host, the vaccine, the parameter used for efficacy determination and the challenge conditions. In this context, we evaluated the efficacy of an inactivated standard commercial vaccine and a 1/2 diluted dose in pregnant sheep challenged with C. abortus by examining multiple indicators ofvaccine effect (including incidence of reproductive failures, bacterial excretion, and evolution of weight gain of viable lambs during the first month of life). Three groups of ewes [control non-vaccinated, C (n = 18); vaccinated with standard dose, SV (n = 16) and vaccinated with 1/2 dose, DV (n = 17)], were challenged approximately 90 days post-mating and tested using direct PCR (tissue samples and vaginal swabs) and ELISA (serum) until 31 days post-reproductive outcome. There were not significant differences in the proportions of reproductive failures or bacterial shedding after birth/abortion regardless the vaccination protocol. However, a beneficial effect of vaccination on offspring growth was detected in both vaccinated groups compared with the controls, with a mean increase in weight measured at 30 days of life of 1.5 and 2.5 Kg (p = 0.056) and an increase in the geometric mean of the daily gain of 8.4 and 9.7% in lambs born from DV and SV ewes compared to controls, respectively. Our results demonstrate the effect of an inactivated vaccine in the development of the offspring of C. abortus-infected ewes at a standard and a diluted dose, an interesting finding given the difficulty in achieving sufficient antigen concentration in the production of EAE-commercial vaccines.

Índice general de fuerza y adiposidad como medida de la condición relacionada con la salud en niños y adolescentes de Bogotá, Colombia: Estudio FUPRECOL

Objetivos: El presente estudio tuvo por objetivo general (1) determinar los valores de referencia de la condición muscular mediante el índice general de fuerza (IGF) y como objetivo específico, (2) estudiar si el IGF está relacionado con indicadores de adiposidad en niños y adolescentes escolares de Bogotá, Colombia. Métodos: Del total de 7.268 niños y adolescentes (9-17.9 años) evaluados en el estudio FUPRECOL, 4.139 (57%) fueron mujeres. Se evaluó el IGF como marcador del desempeño muscular a partir de la tipificación de las pruebas de fuerza prensil (FP) y salto longitud (SL). El IGF se recodificó en cuartiles (Q), siendo el Q4 la posición con mejor valor del IGF. El índice de masa corporal (IMC), la circunferencia de cintura (CC), el índice cintura/talla (ICT) y el porcentaje de grasa corporal (%GC) por Bioimpedancia eléctrica, se midieron como marcadores de adiposidad. Resultados: La edad media de los evaluados fue 12,8±2,3 años. Se aprecia una tendencia hacia un incremento del nivel de condición física muscular en los varones conforme aumenta la edad, y hacia la estabilidad o un ligero aumento en el caso de las mujeres. El IGF se relacionó inversamente con el ICT y %GC en los varones (r= -0,280, r= -0,327 p<0,01), respectivamente. Los escolares ubicados en el Q4 del IGF, presentaron menores valores en marcadores de adiposidad IMC, CC, ICT y %GC, p<0,01 que su contraparte del Q1. Conclusión: Se presentan valores de referencia del IGF a partir de la estandarización de los resultados obtenidos en la FP y SL. La evaluación de la fuerza muscular en edades tempranas permitirá implementar programas de prevención de riesgo cardiovascular y metabólico futuro

Normative reference values for the 20-meter shuttlerun test in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk.