Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Peripheral Oxidative Stress Biomarkers in Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer`s Disease

Oxidative stress has been associated with normal aging and Alzheimer`s disease (AD). However, little is known about oxidative stress in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients who present a high risk for developing AD. The aim of this study was to investigate plasma production of the lipid peroxidation marker, malonaldehyde (MDA) and to determine, in erythrocytes, the enzymatic antioxidant activity of catalase, glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione reductase (GR), and glutathione S-transferase (GST) in 33 individuals with MCI, 29 with mild probable AD and 26 healthy aged subjects. GR/GPx activity ratio was calculated to better assess antioxidant defenses. The relationship between oxidative stress and cognitive performance was also evaluated by the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). AD patients showed higher MDA levels than both MCI and healthy elderly subjects. MCI subjects also exhibited higher MDA levels compared to controls. Catalase and GPx activity were similar in MCI and healthy individuals but higher in AD. GR activity was lower in MCI and AD patients than in healthy aged subjects. Additionally, GR/GPx ratio was higher in healthy aged subjects, intermediate in MCI and lower in AD patients. No differences in GST activity were detected among the groups. MMSE was negatively associated with MDA levels (r = -0.31, p = 0.028) and positively correlated with GR/GPx ratio in AD patients (r = 0.68, p < 0.001). MDA levels were also negatively correlated to GR/GPx ratio (r = -0.31, p = 0.029) in the AD group. These results suggest that high lipid peroxidation and decreased antioxidant defenses may be present early in cognitive disorders.

Influence of education and depressive symptoms on cognitive function in the elderly

Objective: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the influence that education and depression have on the performance of elderly people in neuropsychological tests. Methods: The study was conducted at the Institute of Psychiatry, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Hospital das Clinicas. All of the individuals evaluated were aged 60 or older. The study sample consisted of 59 outpatients with depressive disorders and 51 healthy controls. We stratified the sample by level of education: low = 1-4 years of schooling; high = 5 or more years of schooling. Evaluations consisted of psychiatric assessment, cognitive assessment, laboratory tests and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. Results: We found that level of education influenced all the measures of cognitive domains investigated (intellectual efficiency, processing speed, attention, executive function and memory) except the Digit Span Forward and Fuld Object Memory Evaluation (immediate and delayed recall), whereas depressive symptoms influenced some measures of memory, attention, executive function and processing speed. Although the combination of a low level of education and depression had a significant negative influence on Stroop Test part B, Trail Making Test part B and Logical Memory (immediate recall), we found no other significant effects of the interaction between level of education and depression. Conclusion: The results of this study underscore the importance of considering the level of education in the analysis of cognitive performance in depressed elderly patients, as well as the relevance of developing new cognitive function tests in which level of education has a reduced impact on the results.

KittyCat: a cognitive model of structure-form discovery

Cognition is a core subject to understand how humans think and behave. In that sense, it is clear that Cognition is a great ally to Management, as the later deals with people and is very interested in how they behave, think, and make decisions. However, even though Cognition shows great promise as a field, there are still many topics to be explored and learned in this fairly new area. Kemp & Tenembaum (2008) tried to a model graph-structure problem in which, given a dataset, the best underlying structure and form would emerge from said dataset by using bayesian probabilistic inferences. This work is very interesting because it addresses a key cognition problem: learning. According to the authors, analogous insights and discoveries, understanding the relationships of elements and how they are organized, play a very important part in cognitive development. That is, this are very basic phenomena that allow learning. Human beings minds do not function as computer that uses bayesian probabilistic inferences. People seem to think differently. Thus, we present a cognitively inspired method, KittyCat, based on FARG computer models (like Copycat and Numbo), to solve the proposed problem of discovery the underlying structural-form of a dataset.

Cognitive abilities, sociocultural background and academic achievement

The infl uence of students’ sociocultural background on academic achievement is a well established fact. Research also points out that sociocultural background is related to students’ cognitive abilities and these have an effect on their academic achievement. However, the mediator role of cognitive abilities on the relationship between sociocultural background and academic achievement is less well known. A structural equation model that represents these relationships was tested in a sample (N= 728) of Portuguese junior high school students. Multigroup analysis of the model showed the importance of the cognitive ability mediation effect between sociocultural background and academic achievement in the 7th and 9th grades, but not in the 8th grade. This difference may be the result of the academic transition experienced in the 7th and 9th grades in the Portuguese educational system, which requires parents’ higher involvement in school.

Graph analysis of verbal fluency test discriminate between patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and normal elderly controls

Verbal fluency is the ability to produce a satisfying sequence of spoken words during a given time interval. The core of verbal fluency lies in the capacity to manage the executive aspects of language. The standard scores of the semantic verbal fluency test are broadly used in the neuropsychological assessment of the elderly, and different analytical methods are likely to extract even more information from the data generated in this test. Graph theory, a mathematical approach to analyze relations between items, represents a promising tool to understand a variety of neuropsychological states. This study reports a graph analysis of data generated by the semantic verbal fluency test by cognitively healthy elderly (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment – subtypes amnestic(aMCI) and amnestic multiple domain (a+mdMCI) - and patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Sequences of words were represented as a speech graph in which every word corresponded to a node and temporal links between words were represented by directed edges. To characterize the structure of the data we calculated 13 speech graph attributes (SGAs). The individuals were compared when divided in three (NC – MCI – AD) and four (NC – aMCI – a+mdMCI – AD) groups. When the three groups were compared, significant differences were found in the standard measure of correct words produced, and three SGA: diameter, average shortest path, and network density. SGA sorted the elderly groups with good specificity and sensitivity. When the four groups were compared, the groups differed significantly in network density, except between the two MCI subtypes and NC and aMCI. The diameter of the network and the average shortest path were significantly different between the NC and AD, and between aMCI and AD. SGA sorted the elderly in their groups with good specificity and sensitivity, performing better than the standard score of the task. These findings provide support for a new methodological frame to assess the strength of semantic memory through the verbal fluency task, with potential to amplify the predictive power of this test. Graph analysis is likely to become clinically relevant in neurology and psychiatry, and may be particularly useful for the differential diagnosis of the elderly.

Paradigmas, valores e educação

O texto levanta os perfis epistemológico e socianalítico da questão paradigmática. Mauss evidenciara o moule affectif das noções científicas de força e causa. Posteriormente Baudouin falaria na indução arquetípica das noções e a antropologia do imaginário de Durand concluiria pela indução arquetipal do conceito pela imagem. Chegava-se, assim, ao desvendamento do substrato inconsciente das ideações, de um substrato regido pela catexis vetorializada, traduzindo-se nos valores como cerne das ideações. É o famoso a priori emotivo. Portanto, no texto, questionam-se dois mitos, esteios da ciência clássica: o mito da objetividade científica e o da neutralidade axiológica. Destaca, assim, a falácia da existência de uma ruptura epistemológica entre ciência e ideologia. A partir daí, as ideações tornam-se ideologias, sobretudo nas ciências do homem e nas ciências da educação que, ademais, tornam-se suporte de uma disfarçada luta ideológica, na qual, num colonialismo cognitivo, as estratégias de conhecimento dissimulam as de preconceito. Entretanto, assumir a realidade desse suporte fantasmanalítico e ideológico propicia uma tarefa educativa salutar: os paradigmas tornam-se fantasias e, nessa relativização crítica, podem ser usados como um campo de objetos transicionais coletivos num ludismo cultural e educativo. No policulturalismo da sociedade contemporânea, o politeísmo de valores de Weber transforma-se num politeísmo epistemológico, regido pelo relativismo ontológico de Feyerabend e por uma ética do pragmatismo. Articulando cultura, organização e educação, a antropologia das organizações educativas e a culturanálise de grupos de Paula Carvalho traduzem as heurísticas dessa dialética transicional.

Subtle Cognitive Deficits in Adults With a Previous History of Sydenham's Chorea During Childhood

Objective. To evaluate the neuropsychological profile and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of adults who had rheumatic fever (RF) during childhood with and without Sydenham's chorea (SC).Methods. Three groups of patients were assessed: adults who had RF with SC during childhood (SC group), adults who had RF without SC during childhood (RF group), and controls (CT group). A range of neuropsychological tests looked at several cognitive domains. HRQOL was measured through a Brazilian version of the Short Form 36 (SF-36) health survey.Results. Twenty patients were included in the SC group, 23 patients in the RF group, and 19 patients in the CT group. The 3 groups were homogeneous regarding sex (P = 0.078), age (P = 0.799), schooling (P = 0.600), socioeconomic status (P = 0.138), intelligence quotient (P = 0.329), and scores for anxiety (P = 0.156) and depression (P = 0.076). The SC group demonstrated inferior performance in tests that assessed attention (Digit Span Forward [ P = 0.005], Corsi Block Forward [ P = 0.014]), speeded information processing (Trail Making A [ P = 0.009], Symbol Search [ P = 0.042]), and executive functions and working memory (Corsi Block Backward [ P = 0.028]), and higher scores for attention deficit scale (P = 0.030) when compared with the RF and CT groups. They also showed a tendency toward lower scores in the physical aspects, vitality, emotional aspects, and mental health domains of the SF-36. The RF group had a lower score for the general health domain than the CT group (P = 0.030).Conclusion. Patients who had SC during childhood can exhibit inferior performance in tasks that evaluate attention, speeded information processing, executive functions, and working memory in adult life. Therefore, there is indirect evidence of the persistence of dysfunction in cerebral circuits involved with the basal ganglia. They also presented a worse self-evaluation in HRQOL that was not related to cognitive impairments.

Agrofuel policies in Brazil: paradigmatic and territorial disputes

The expansion of agrofuel crops challenges us to rethink policies, territories, human agency, and the paradigms used to explain them. In Brazil, policies supporting the expansion of agrofuel crops and the intensification of agrofuel production are reorganising rural land use and undermining some forms of participation in the capitalist and family modes of production. To reflect on this new reality, we study peasant movement reactions, proposals, and territorial disputes with agribusiness. Using the Pontal do Paranapanema region of São Paulo state as a case in point, the paper analyses territorial disputes between expanding sugarcane plantations and agrarian reform settlements as well as biodiesel production projects developed by the Landless Workers Movement (MST) and the Western São Paulo Federation of Settlement and Family Farmer Associations (FAAFOP). It also analyses the agrofuel policies of other peasant organisations, including Via Campesina. The production of agrofuels has changed the processes of land acquisition and use by both agribusiness and the peasantry, provoking new insights into the nature of territorial conflicts and thereby stimulating the need to revise perspectives on the agrarian question in Brazil.