888 resultados para Two-stage stochastic model
Resumo:
The orographic gravity wave drag produced in flow over an axisymmetric mountain when both vertical wind shear and non-hydrostatic effects are important was calculated using a semi-analytical two-layer linear model, including unidirectional or directional constant wind shear in a layer near the surface, above which the wind is constant. The drag behaviour is determined by partial wave reflection at the shear discontinuity, wave absorption at critical levels (both of which exist in hydrostatic flow), and total wave reflection at levels where the waves become evanescent (an intrinsically non-hydrostatic effect), which produces resonant trapped lee wave modes. As a result of constructive or destructive wave interference, the drag oscillates with the thickness of the constant-shear layer and the Richardson number within it (Ri), generally decreasing at low Ri and when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic. Critical level absorption, which increases with the angle spanned by the wind velocity in the constant-shear layer, shields the surface from reflected waves, keeping the drag closer to its hydrostatic limit. While, for the parameter range considered here, the drag seldom exceeds this limit, a substantial drag fraction may be produced by trapped lee waves, particularly when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic, the lower layer is thick and Ri is relatively high. In directionally sheared flows with Ri = O(1), the drag may be misaligned with the surface wind in a direction opposite to the shear, a behaviour which is totally due to non-trapped waves. The trapped lee wave drag, whose reaction force on the atmosphere is felt at low levels, may therefore have a distinctly different direction from the drag associated with vertically propagating waves, which acts on the atmosphere at higher levels.
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The aim of this paper is to develop a comprehensive taxonomy of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices and develop a structural equation modelling-driven decision support system following GSCM taxonomy for managers to provide better understanding of the complex relationship between the external and internal factors and GSCM operational practices. Typology and/or taxonomy play a key role in the development of social science theories. The current taxonomies focus on a single or limited component of the supply chain. Furthermore, they have not been tested using different sample compositions and contexts, yet replication is a prerequisite for developing robust concepts and theories. In this paper, we empirically replicate one such taxonomy extending the original study by (a) developing broad (containing the key components of supply chain) taxonomy; (b) broadening the sample by including a wider range of sectors and organisational size; and (c) broadening the geographic scope of the previous studies. Moreover, we include both objective measures and subjective attitudinal measurements. We use a robust two-stage cluster analysis to develop our GSCM taxonomy. The main finding validates the taxonomy previously proposed and identifies size, attitude and level of environmental risk and impact as key mediators between internal drivers, external drivers and GSCM operational practices.
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During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios.
Resumo:
The low activity variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) functional promoter polymorphism, MAOA-LPR, in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders. MAOA is expressed during foetal development so in utero G × E may influence early neurodevelopment. We tested the hypothesis that MAOA G × E during pregnancy predicts infant negative emotionality soon after birth. In an epidemiological longitudinal study starting in pregnancy, using a two stage stratified design, we ascertained MAOA-LPR status (low vs. high activity variants) from the saliva of 209 infants (104 boys and 105 girls), and examined predictions to observed infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks post-partum from life events during pregnancy. In analyses weighted to provide estimates for the general population, and including possible confounders for life events, there was an MAOA status by life events interaction (P = 0.017). There was also an interaction between MAOA status and neighbourhood deprivation (P = 0.028). Both interactions arose from a greater effect of increasing life events on negative emotionality in the MAOA-LPR low activity, compared with MAOA-LPR high activity infants. The study provides the first evidence of moderation by MAOA-LPR of the effect of the social environment in pregnancy on negative emotionality in infancy, an early risk for the development of child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders.
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Sclera segmentation is shown to be of significant importance for eye and iris biometrics. However, sclera segmentation has not been extensively researched as a separate topic, but mainly summarized as a component of a broader task. This paper proposes a novel sclera segmentation algorithm for colour images which operates at pixel-level. Exploring various colour spaces, the proposed approach is robust to image noise and different gaze directions. The algorithm’s robustness is enhanced by a two-stage classifier. At the first stage, a set of simple classifiers is employed, while at the second stage, a neural network classifier operates on the probabilities’ space generated by the classifiers at stage 1. The proposed method was ranked the 1st in Sclera Segmentation Benchmarking Competition 2015, part of BTAS 2015, with a precision of 95.05% corresponding to a recall of 94.56%.
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The weak-constraint inverse for nonlinear dynamical models is discussed and derived in terms of a probabilistic formulation. The well-known result that for Gaussian error statistics the minimum of the weak-constraint inverse is equal to the maximum-likelihood estimate is rederived. Then several methods based on ensemble statistics that can be used to find the smoother (as opposed to the filter) solution are introduced and compared to traditional methods. A strong point of the new methods is that they avoid the integration of adjoint equations, which is a complex task for real oceanographic or atmospheric applications. they also avoid iterative searches in a Hilbert space, and error estimates can be obtained without much additional computational effort. the feasibility of the new methods is illustrated in a two-layer quasigeostrophic model.
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The presence of melt ponds on the surface of Arctic sea ice significantly reduces its albedo, inducing a positive feedback leading to sea ice thinning. While the role of melt ponds in enhancing the summer melt of sea ice is well known, their impact on suppressing winter freezing of sea ice has, hitherto, received less attention. Melt ponds freeze by forming an ice lid at the upper surface, which insulates them from the atmosphere and traps pond water between the underlying sea ice and the ice lid. The pond water is a store of latent heat, which is released during refreezing. Until a pond freezes completely, there can be minimal ice growth at the base of the underlying sea ice. In this work, we present a model of the refreezing of a melt pond that includes the heat and salt balances in the ice lid, trapped pond, and underlying sea ice. The model uses a two-stream radiation model to account for radiative scattering at phase boundaries. Simulations and related sensitivity studies suggest that trapped pond water may survive for over a month. We focus on the role that pond salinity has on delaying the refreezing process and retarding basal sea ice growth. We estimate that for a typical sea ice pond coverage in autumn, excluding the impact of trapped ponds in models overestimates ice growth by up to 265 million km3, an overestimate of 26%.
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Electrochemical gating at the single molecule level of viologen molecular bridges in ionic liquids is examined. Contrary to previous data recorded in aqueous electrolytes, a clear and sharp peak in the single molecule conductance versus electrochemical potential data is obtained in ionic liquids. These data are rationalized in terms of a two-step electrochemical model for charge transport across the redox bridge. In this model the gate coupling in the ionic liquid is found to be fully effective with a modeled gate coupling parameter, ξ, of unity. This compares to a much lower gate coupling parameter of 0.2 for the equivalent aqueous gating system. This study shows that ionic liquids are far more effective media for gating the conductance of single molecules than either solid-state three-terminal platforms created using nanolithography, or aqueous media.
Resumo:
The derivation of time evolution equations for slow collective variables starting from a micro- scopic model system is demonstrated for the tutorial example of the classical, two-dimensional XY model. Projection operator techniques are used within a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework together with molecular simulations in order to establish the building blocks of the hydrodynamics equations: Poisson brackets that determine the deterministic drift, the driving forces from the macroscopic free energy and the friction matrix. The approach is rather general and can be applied for deriving the equations of slow variables for a broad variety of systems.
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Modified fluorcanasite glasses were fabricated by either altering the molar ratios of Na(2)O and CaO or by adding P(2)O(5) to the parent stoichiometric glass compositions. Glasses were converted to glass-ceramics by a controlled two-stage heat treatment process. Rods (2 mm x 4 mm) were produced using the conventional lost-wax casting technique. Osteoconductive 45S5 bioglass was used as a reference material. Biocompatibility and osteoconductivity were investigated by implantation into healing defects (2 mm) in the midshaft of rabbit femora. Tissue response was investigated using conventional histology and scanning electron microscopy. Histological and histomorphometric evaluation of specimens after 12 weeks implantation showed significantly more bone contact with the surface of 45S5 bioglass implants when compared with other test materials. When the bone contact for each material was compared between experimental time points, the Glass-Ceramic 2 (CaO rich) group showed significant difference (p = 0.027) at 4 weeks, but no direct contact at 12 weeks. Histology and backscattered electron photomicrographs showed that modified fluorcanasite glass-ceramic implants had greater osteoconductivity than the parent stoichiometric composition. Of the new materials, fluorcanasite glass-ceramic implants modified by the addition of P(2)O(5) showed the greatest stimulation of new mineralized bone tissue formation adjacent to the implants after 4 and 12 weeks implantation. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 94A: 760-768, 2010
Resumo:
Background: Previous studies have pointed out that the mere elevation of the maxillary sinus membrane promotes bone formation without the use of augmentation materials. Purpose: This experimental study aimed at evaluating if the two-stage procedure for sinus floor augmentation could benefit from the use of a space-making device in order to increase the bone volume to enable later implant installation with good primary stability. Materials and Methods: Six male tufted capuchin primates (Cebus apella) were subjected to extraction of the three premolars and the first molar on both sides of the maxilla to create an edentulous area. The sinuses were opened using the lateral bone-wall window technique, and the membrane was elevated. One resorbable space-making device was inserted in each maxillary sinus, and the bone window was returned in place. The animals were euthanatized after 6 months, and biopsy blocks containing the whole maxillary sinus and surrounding soft tissues were prepared for ground sections. Results: The histological examination of the specimens showed bone formation in contact with both the schneiderian membrane and the device in most cases even when the device was displaced. The process of bone formation indicates that this technique is potentially useful for two-stage sinus floor augmentation. The lack of stabilization of the device within the sinus demands further improvement of space-makers for predictable bone augmentation. Conclusions: It is concluded that (1) the device used in this study did not trigger any important inflammatory reaction; (2) when the sinus membrane was elevated, bone formation was a constant finding; and (3) an ideal space-making device should be stable and elevate the membrane to ensure a maintained connection between the membrane and the secluded space.
Resumo:
Objectives. To assess the impact of chronic disease and the number of diseases on the various aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among the elderly in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods. The SF-36 (R) Health Survey was used to assess the impact of the most prevalent chronic diseases on HRQOL. A cross-sectional and population-based study was carried out with two-stage stratified cluster sampling. Data were obtained from a multicenter health survey administered through household interviews in several municipalities in the state of Sao Paulo. The study evaluated seven diseases-arthritis, back-pain, depression/anxiety, diabetes, hypertension, osteoporosis, and stroke-and their effects on quality of life. Results. Among the 1958 elderly individuals (60 years of age or older), 13.6% reported not having any of the illnesses, whereas 45.7% presented three or more chronic conditions. The presence of any of the seven chronic illnesses studied had a significant effect on the scores Of nearly all the SF-36 (R) scales. HRQOL achieved lower scores when related to depression/anxiety, osteoporosis, and stroke. The higher the number of diseases, the greater the negative effect on the SF-36 (R) dimensions. The presence of three or more diseases significantly affected HRQOL in all areas. The bodily pain, general health, and vitality scales were the most affected by diseases. Conclusions. The study detected a high prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly population and found that the degree of impact on HRQOL depends on the type of disease. The results highlight the importance of preventing and controlling chronic diseases in order to reduce the number of comorbidities and lessen their impact on HRQOL among the elderly.
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Soybean oil can be deacidified by liquid-liquid extraction with ethanol. In the present paper, the liquid-liquid equilibria of systems composed of refined soybean oil, commercial linoleic acid, ethanol and water were investigated at 298.2 K. The experimental data set obtained from the present study (at 298.2 K) and the results of Mohsen-Nia et al. [1] (at 303.2 K) and Rodrigues et al. [2] (at 323.2 K) were correlated by applying the non-random two liquid (NRTL) model. The results of the present study indicated that the mutual solubility of the compounds decreased with an increase in the water content of the solvent and a decrease in the temperature of the solution. Among variables, the water content of the solvent had the strongest effect on the solubility of the components. The maximum deviation and average variance between the experimental and calculated compositions were 1.60% and 0.89%, indicating that the model could accurately predict the behavior of the compounds at different temperatures and degrees of hydration. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The biosynthesis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) from sucrose and propionic acid by Burkholderia sacchari IPT 189 was studied using a two-stage bioreactor process. In the first stage, this bacterium was cultivated in a balanced culture medium until sucrose exhaustion. In the second stage, a solution containing sucrose and propionic acid as carbon source was fed to the bioreactor at various sucrose/propionic acid (s/p) ratios at a constant specific flow rate. Copolymers with 3HV content ranging from 40 down to 6.5 (mol%) were obtained with 3HV yield from propionic acid (Y-3HV/prop) increasing from 1.10 to 1.34 g g(-1). Copolymer productivity of 1 g l(-1) h(-1) was obtained with polymer biomass content rising up to 60% by increasing a specific flow rate at a constant s/p ratio. Increasing values of 3HV content were obtained by varying the s/p ratios. A simulation of production costs considering Y-3HV/prop obtained in the present work indicated that a reduction of up to 73% can be reached, approximating US$ 1.00 per kg which is closer to the value to produce P3HB from sucrose (US$ 0.75 per kg).
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We report on experimental studies of the Kondo physics and the development of non-Fermi-liquid scaling in UCu(4+x)Al(8-x) family. We studied 7 different compounds with compositions between x = 0 and 2. We measured electrical transport (down to 65 mK) and thermoelectric power (down to 1.8 K) as a function of temperature, hydrostatic pressure, and/or magnetic field. Compounds with Cu content below x = 1.25 exhibit long-range antiferromagnetic order at low temperatures. Magnetic order is suppressed with increasing Cu content and our data indicate a possible quantum critical point at x(cr) approximate to 1.15. For compounds with higher Cu content, non-Fermi-liquid behavior is observed. Non-Fermi-liquid scaling is inferred from electrical resistivity results for the x = 1.25 and 1.5 compounds. For compounds with even higher Cu content, a sharp kink occurs in the resistivity data at low temperatures, and this may be indicative of another quantum critical point that occurs at higher Cu compositions. For the magnetically ordered compounds, hydrostatic pressure is found to increase the Neel temperature, which can be understood in terms of the Kondo physics. For the non-magnetic compounds, application of a magnetic field promotes a tendency toward Fermi-liquid behavior. Thermoelectric power was analyzed using a two-band Lorentzian model, and the results indicate one fairly narrow band (10 meV and below) and a second broad band (around hundred meV). The results imply that there are two relevant energy scales that need to be considered for the physics in this family of compounds. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.