890 resultados para System modelling
Resumo:
The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.
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The hierarchical organisation of biological systems plays a crucial role in the pattern formation of gene expression resulting from the morphogenetic processes, where autonomous internal dynamics of cells, as well as cell-to-cell interactions through membranes, are responsible for the emergent peculiar structures of the individual phenotype. Being able to reproduce the systems dynamics at different levels of such a hierarchy might be very useful for studying such a complex phenomenon of self-organisation. The idea is to model the phenomenon in terms of a large and dynamic network of compartments, where the interplay between inter-compartment and intra-compartment events determines the emergent behaviour resulting in the formation of spatial patterns. According to these premises the thesis proposes a review of the different approaches already developed in modelling developmental biology problems, as well as the main models and infrastructures available in literature for modelling biological systems, analysing their capabilities in tackling multi-compartment / multi-level models. The thesis then introduces a practical framework, MS-BioNET, for modelling and simulating these scenarios exploiting the potential of multi-level dynamics. This is based on (i) a computational model featuring networks of compartments and an enhanced model of chemical reaction addressing molecule transfer, (ii) a logic-oriented language to flexibly specify complex simulation scenarios, and (iii) a simulation engine based on the many-species/many-channels optimised version of Gillespie’s direct method. The thesis finally proposes the adoption of the agent-based model as an approach capable of capture multi-level dynamics. To overcome the problem of parameter tuning in the model, the simulators are supplied with a module for parameter optimisation. The task is defined as an optimisation problem over the parameter space in which the objective function to be minimised is the distance between the output of the simulator and a target one. The problem is tackled with a metaheuristic algorithm. As an example of application of the MS-BioNET framework and of the agent-based model, a model of the first stages of Drosophila Melanogaster development is realised. The model goal is to generate the early spatial pattern of gap gene expression. The correctness of the models is shown comparing the simulation results with real data of gene expression with spatial and temporal resolution, acquired in free on-line sources.
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Il lavoro è dedicato all'analisi fisica e alla modellizzazione dello strato limite atmosferico in condizioni stabili. L'obiettivo principale è quello di migliorare i modelli di parametrizzazione della turbulenza attualmente utilizzati dai modelli meteorologici a grande scala. Questi modelli di parametrizzazione della turbolenza consistono nell' esprimere gli stress di Reynolds come funzioni dei campi medi (componenti orizzontali della velocità e temperatura potenziale) usando delle chiusure. La maggior parte delle chiusure sono state sviluppate per i casi quasi-neutrali, e la difficoltà è trattare l'effetto della stabilità in modo rigoroso. Studieremo in dettaglio due differenti modelli di chiusura della turbolenza per lo strato limite stabile basati su assunzioni diverse: uno schema TKE-l (Mellor-Yamada,1982), che è usato nel modello di previsione BOLAM (Bologna Limited Area Model), e uno schema sviluppato recentemente da Mauritsen et al. (2007). Le assunzioni delle chiusure dei due schemi sono analizzate con dati sperimentali provenienti dalla torre di Cabauw in Olanda e dal sito CIBA in Spagna. Questi schemi di parametrizzazione della turbolenza sono quindi inseriti all'interno di un modello colonnare dello strato limite atmosferico, per testare le loro predizioni senza influenze esterne. Il confronto tra i differenti schemi è effettuato su un caso ben documentato in letteratura, il "GABLS1". Per confermare la validità delle predizioni, un dataset tridimensionale è creato simulando lo stesso caso GABLS1 con una Large Eddy Simulation. ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) è stato usato per questo scopo. La stratificazione stabile vincola il passo di griglia, poichè la LES deve essere ad una risoluzione abbastanza elevata affinchè le tipiche scale verticali di moto siano correttamente risolte. Il confronto di questo dataset tridimensionale con le predizioni degli schemi turbolenti permettono di proporre un insieme di nuove chiusure atte a migliorare il modello di turbolenza di BOLAM. Il lavoro è stato compiuto all' ISAC-CNR di Bologna e al LEGI di Grenoble.
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Waste management represents an important issue in our society and Waste-to-Energy incineration plants have been playing a significant role in the last decades, showing an increased importance in Europe. One of the main issues posed by waste combustion is the generation of air contaminants. Particular concern is present about acid gases, mainly hydrogen chloride and sulfur oxides, due to their potential impact on the environment and on human health. Therefore, in the present study the main available technological options for flue gas treatment were analyzed, focusing on dry treatment systems, which are increasingly applied in Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) incinerators. An operational model was proposed to describe and optimize acid gas removal process. It was applied to an existing MSW incineration plant, where acid gases are neutralized in a two-stage dry treatment system. This process is based on the injection of powdered calcium hydroxide and sodium bicarbonate in reactors followed by fabric filters. HCl and SO2 conversions were expressed as a function of reactants flow rates, calculating model parameters from literature and plant data. The implementation in a software for process simulation allowed the identification of optimal operating conditions, taking into account the reactant feed rates, the amount of solid products and the recycle of the sorbent. Alternative configurations of the reference plant were also assessed. The applicability of the operational model was extended developing also a fundamental approach to the issue. A predictive model was developed, describing mass transfer and kinetic phenomena governing the acid gas neutralization with solid sorbents. The rate controlling steps were identified through the reproduction of literature data, allowing the description of acid gas removal in the case study analyzed. A laboratory device was also designed and started up to assess the required model parameters.
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Aim of this research is the development and validation of a comprehensive multibody motorcycle model featuring rigid-ring tires, taking into account both slope and roughness of road surfaces. A novel parametrization for the general kinematics of the motorcycle is proposed, using a mixed reference-point and relative-coordinates approach. The resulting description, developed in terms of dependent coordinates, makes it possible to efficiently include rigid-ring kinematics as well as road elevation and slope. The equations of motion for the multibody system are derived symbolically and the constraint equations arising from the dependent-coordinate formulation are handled using a projection technique. Therefore the resulting system of equations can be integrated in time domain using a standard ODE algorithm. The model is validated with respect to maneuvers experimentally measured on the race track, showing consistent results and excellent computational efficiency. More in detail, it is also capable of reproducing the chatter vibration of racing motorcycles. The chatter phenomenon, appearing during high speed cornering maneuvers, consists of a self-excited vertical oscillation of both the front and rear unsprung masses in the range of frequency between 17 and 22 Hz. A critical maneuver is numerically simulated, and a self-excited vibration appears, consistent with the experimentally measured chatter vibration. Finally, the driving mechanism for the self-excitation is highlighted and a physical interpretation is proposed.
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After a first theoric introduction about Business Process Re-engineering (BPR), are considered in particular the possible options found in literature regarding the following three macro-elements: the methodologies, the modelling notations and the tools employed for process mapping. The theoric section is the base for the analysis of the same elements into the specific case of Rosetti Marino S.p.A., an EPC contractor, operating in the Oil&Gas industry. Rosetti Marino implemented a tool developped internally in order to satisfy its needs in the most suitable way possible and buit a Map of all business processes,navigable on the Company Intranet. Moreover it adopted a methodology based upon participation, interfunctional communication and sharing. The GIGA introduction is analysed from a structural, human resources, political and symbolic point of view.
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Tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) gneisses form up to two-thirds of the preserved Archean continental crust and there is considerable debate regarding the primary magmatic processes of the generation of these rocks. The popular theories indicate that these rocks were formed by partial melting of basaltic oceanic crust which was previously metamorphosed to garnet-amphibolite and/or eclogite facies conditions either at the base of thick oceanic crust or by subduction processes.rnThis study investigates a new aspect regarding the source rock for Archean continental crust which is inferred to have had a bulk compostion richer in magnesium (picrite) than present-day basaltic oceanic crust. This difference is supposed to originate from a higher geothermal gradient in the early Archean which may have induced higher degrees of partial melting in the mantle, which resulted in a thicker and more magnesian oceanic crust. rnThe methods used to investigate the role of a more MgO-rich source rock in the formation of TTG-like melts in the context of this new approach are mineral equilibria calculations with the software THERMOCALC and high-pressure experiments conducted from 10–20 kbar and 900–1100 °C, both combined in a forward modelling approach. Initially, P–T pseudosections for natural rock compositions with increasing MgO contents were calculated in the system NCFMASHTO (Na2O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O–TiO2) to ascertain the metamorphic products from rocks with increasing MgO contents from a MORB up to a komatiite. A small number of previous experiments on komatiites showed the development of pyroxenite instead of eclogite and garnet-amphibolite during metamorphism and established that melts of these pyroxenites are of basaltic composition, thus again building oceanic crust instead of continental crust.rnThe P–T pseudosections calculated represent a continuous development of their metamorphic products from amphibolites and eclogites towards pyroxenites. On the basis of these calculations and the changes within the range of compositions, three picritic Models of Archean Oceanic Crust (MAOC) were established with different MgO contents (11, 13 and 15 wt%) ranging between basalt and komatiite. The thermodynamic modelling for MAOC 11, 13 and 15 at supersolidus conditions is imprecise since no appropriate melt model for metabasic rocks is currently available and the melt model for metapelitic rocks resulted in unsatisfactory calculations. The partially molten region is therfore covered by high-pressure experiments. The results of the experiments show a transition from predominantly tonalitic melts in MAOC 11 to basaltic melts in MAOC 15 and a solidus moving towards higher temperatures with increasing magnesium in the bulk composition. Tonalitic melts were generated in MAOC 11 and 13 at pressures up to 12.5 kbar in the presence of garnet, clinopyroxene, plagioclase plus/minus quartz (plus/minus orthopyroxene in the presence of quartz and at lower pressures) in the absence of amphibole but it could not be explicitly indicated whether the tonalitic melts coexisting with an eclogitic residue and rutile at 20 kbar do belong to the Archean TTG suite. Basaltic melts were generated predominantly in the presence of granulite facies residues such as amphibole plus/minus garnet, plagioclase, orthopyroxene that lack quartz in all MAOC compositions at pressures up to 15 kbar. rnThe tonalitic melts generated in MAOC 11 and 13 indicate that thicker oceanic crust with more magnesium than that of a modern basalt is also a viable source for the generation of TTG-like melts and therefore continental crust in the Archean. The experimental results are related to different geologic settings as a function of pressure. The favoured setting for the generation of early TTG-like melts at 15 kbar is the base of an oceanic crust thicker than existing today or by melting of slabs in shallow subduction zones, both without interaction of tonalic melts with the mantle. Tonalitic melts at 20 kbar may have been generated below the plagioclase stability by slab melting in deeper subduction zones that have developed with time during the progressive cooling of the Earth, but it is unlikely that those melts reached lower pressure levels without further mantle interaction.rn
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Because of the potentially irreversible impact of groundwater quality deterioration in the Ferrara coastal aquifer, answers concerning the assessment of the extent of the salinization problem, the understanding of the mechanisms governing salinization processes, and the sustainability of the current water resources management are urgent. In this light, the present thesis aims to achieve the following objectives: Characterization of the lowland coastal aquifer of Ferrara: hydrology, hydrochemistry and evolution of the system The importance of data acquisition techniques in saltwater intrusion monitoring Predicting salinization trends in the lowland coastal aquifer Ammonium occurrence in a salinized lowland coastal aquifer Trace elements mobility in a saline coastal aquifer
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This work illustrates a soil-tunnel-structure interaction study performed by an integrated,geotechnical and structural,approach based on 3D finite element analyses and validated against experimental observations.The study aims at analysing the response of reinforced concrete framed buildings on discrete foundations in interaction with metro lines.It refers to the case of the twin tunnels of the Milan (Italy) metro line 5,recently built in coarse grained materials using EPB machines,for which subsidence measurements collected along ground and building sections during tunnelling were available.Settlements measured under freefield conditions are firstly back interpreted using Gaussian empirical predictions. Then,the in situ measurements’ analysis is extended to include the evolving response of a 9 storey reinforced concrete building while being undercrossed by the metro line.In the finite element study,the soil mechanical behaviour is described using an advanced constitutive model. This latter,when combined with a proper simulation of the excavation process, proves to realistically reproduce the subsidence profiles under free field conditions and to capture the interaction phenomena occurring between the twin tunnels during the excavation. Furthermore, when the numerical model is extended to include the building, schematised in a detailed manner, the results are in good agreement with the monitoring data for different stages of the twin tunnelling. Thus, they indirectly confirm the satisfactory performance of the adopted numerical approach which also allows a direct evaluation of the structural response as an outcome of the analysis. Further analyses are also carried out modelling the building with different levels of detail. The results highlight that, in this case, the simplified approach based on the equivalent plate schematisation is inadequate to capture the real tunnelling induced displacement field. The overall behaviour of the system proves to be mainly influenced by the buried portion of the building which plays an essential role in the interaction mechanism, due to its high stiffness.
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This thesis is focused on Smart Grid applications in medium voltage distribution networks. For the development of new applications it appears useful the availability of simulation tools able to model dynamic behavior of both the power system and the communication network. Such a co-simulation environment would allow the assessment of the feasibility of using a given network technology to support communication-based Smart Grid control schemes on an existing segment of the electrical grid and to determine the range of control schemes that different communications technologies can support. For this reason, is presented a co-simulation platform that has been built by linking the Electromagnetic Transients Program Simulator (EMTP v3.0) with a Telecommunication Network Simulator (OPNET-Riverbed v18.0). The simulator is used to design and analyze a coordinate use of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) for the voltage/var control (VVC) in distribution network. This thesis is focused control structure based on the use of phase measurement units (PMUs). In order to limit the required reinforcements of the communication infrastructures currently adopted by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs), the study is focused on leader-less MAS schemes that do not assign special coordinating rules to specific agents. Leader-less MAS are expected to produce more uniform communication traffic than centralized approaches that include a moderator agent. Moreover, leader-less MAS are expected to be less affected by limitations and constraint of some communication links. The developed co-simulator has allowed the definition of specific countermeasures against the limitations of the communication network, with particular reference to the latency and loss and information, for both the case of wired and wireless communication networks. Moreover, the co-simulation platform has bee also coupled with a mobility simulator in order to study specific countermeasures against the negative effects on the medium voltage/current distribution network caused by the concurrent connection of electric vehicles.
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Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide: A modelling study.rnrnThis study aims at an improved understanding of the stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the carbon monoxide (CO) in the global atmosphere by means of numerical simulations. At first, a new kinetic chemistry tagging technique for the most complete parameterisation of isotope effects has been introduced into the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. Incorporated into the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model, an explicit treatment of the isotope effects on the global scale is now possible. The expanded model system has been applied to simulate the chemical system containing up to five isotopologues of all carbon- and oxygen-bearing species, which ultimately determine the δ13C, δ18O and Δ17O isotopic signatures of atmospheric CO. As model input, a new stable isotope-inclusive emission inventory for the relevant trace gases has been compiled. The uncertainties of the emission estimates and of the resulting simulated mixing and isotope ratios have been analysed. The simulated CO mixing and stable isotope ratios have been compared to in-situ measurements from ground-based observatories and from the civil-aircraft-mounted CARIBIC−1 measurement platform.rnrnThe systematically underestimated 13CO/12CO ratios of earlier, simplified modelling studies can now be partly explained. The EMAC simulations do not support the inferences of those studies, which suggest for CO a reduced input of the highly depleted in 13C methane oxidation source. In particular, a high average yield of 0.94 CO per reacted methane (CH4) molecule is simulated in the troposphere, to a large extent due to the competition between the deposition and convective transport processes affecting the CH4 to CO reaction chain intermediates. None of the other factors, assumed or disregarded in previous studies, however hypothesised to have the potential in enriching tropospheric CO in 13C, were found significant when explicitly simulated. The inaccurate surface emissions, likely underestimated over East Asia, are responsible for roughly half of the discrepancies between the simulated and observed 13CO in the northern hemisphere (NH), whereas the remote southern hemisphere (SH) compositions suggest an underestimated fractionation during the oxidation of CO by the hydroxyl radical (OH). A reanalysis of the kinetic isotope effect (KIE) in this reaction contrasts the conventional assumption of a mere pressure dependence, and instead suggests an additional temperature dependence of the 13C KIE, which is driven by changes in the partitioning of the reaction exit channels. This result is yet to be confirmed in the laboratory.rnrnApart from 13CO, for the first time the atmospheric distribution of the oxygen mass-independent fractionation (MIF) in CO, Δ17O, has been consistently simulated on the global scale with EMAC. The applicability of Δ17O(CO) observations to unravelling changes in the tropospheric CH4-CO-OH system has been scrutinised, as well as the implications of the ozone (O3) input to the CO isotope oxygen budget. The Δ17O(CO) is confirmed to be the principal signal for the CO photochemical age, thus providing a measure for the OH chiefly involved in the sink of CO. The highly mass-independently fractionated O3 oxygen is estimated to comprise around 2% of the overall tropospheric CO source, which has implications for the δ18O, but less likely for the Δ17O CO budgets. Finally, additional sensitivity simulations with EMAC corroborate the nearly equal net effects of the present-day CH4 and CO burdens in removing tropospheric OH, as well as the large turnover and stability of the abundance of the latter. The simulated CO isotopologues nonetheless hint at a likely insufficient OH regeneration in the NH high latitudes and the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS).rn
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Systems Biology is an innovative way of doing biology recently raised in bio-informatics contexts, characterised by the study of biological systems as complex systems with a strong focus on the system level and on the interaction dimension. In other words, the objective is to understand biological systems as a whole, putting on the foreground not only the study of the individual parts as standalone parts, but also of their interaction and of the global properties that emerge at the system level by means of the interaction among the parts. This thesis focuses on the adoption of multi-agent systems (MAS) as a suitable paradigm for Systems Biology, for developing models and simulation of complex biological systems. Multi-agent system have been recently introduced in informatics context as a suitabe paradigm for modelling and engineering complex systems. Roughly speaking, a MAS can be conceived as a set of autonomous and interacting entities, called agents, situated in some kind of nvironment, where they fruitfully interact and coordinate so as to obtain a coherent global system behaviour. The claim of this work is that the general properties of MAS make them an effective approach for modelling and building simulations of complex biological systems, following the methodological principles identified by Systems Biology. In particular, the thesis focuses on cell populations as biological systems. In order to support the claim, the thesis introduces and describes (i) a MAS-based model conceived for modelling the dynamics of systems of cells interacting inside cell environment called niches. (ii) a computational tool, developed for implementing the models and executing the simulations. The tool is meant to work as a kind of virtual laboratory, on top of which kinds of virtual experiments can be performed, characterised by the definition and execution of specific models implemented as MASs, so as to support the validation, falsification and improvement of the models through the observation and analysis of the simulations. A hematopoietic stem cell system is taken as reference case study for formulating a specific model and executing virtual experiments.
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Globalization has increased the pressure on organizations and companies to operate in the most efficient and economic way. This tendency promotes that companies concentrate more and more on their core businesses, outsource less profitable departments and services to reduce costs. By contrast to earlier times, companies are highly specialized and have a low real net output ratio. For being able to provide the consumers with the right products, those companies have to collaborate with other suppliers and form large supply chains. An effect of large supply chains is the deficiency of high stocks and stockholding costs. This fact has lead to the rapid spread of Just-in-Time logistic concepts aimed minimizing stock by simultaneous high availability of products. Those concurring goals, minimizing stock by simultaneous high product availability, claim for high availability of the production systems in the way that an incoming order can immediately processed. Besides of design aspects and the quality of the production system, maintenance has a strong impact on production system availability. In the last decades, there has been many attempts to create maintenance models for availability optimization. Most of them concentrated on the availability aspect only without incorporating further aspects as logistics and profitability of the overall system. However, production system operator’s main intention is to optimize the profitability of the production system and not the availability of the production system. Thus, classic models, limited to represent and optimize maintenance strategies under the light of availability, fail. A novel approach, incorporating all financial impacting processes of and around a production system, is needed. The proposed model is subdivided into three parts, maintenance module, production module and connection module. This subdivision provides easy maintainability and simple extendability. Within those modules, all aspect of production process are modeled. Main part of the work lies in the extended maintenance and failure module that offers a representation of different maintenance strategies but also incorporates the effect of over-maintaining and failed maintenance (maintenance induced failures). Order release and seizing of the production system are modeled in the production part. Due to computational power limitation, it was not possible to run the simulation and the optimization with the fully developed production model. Thus, the production model was reduced to a black-box without higher degree of details.
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Isochrysis galbana is a widely-used strain in aquaculture in spite of its low productivity. To maximize the productivity of processes based on this microalgae strain, a model was developed considering the influence of irradiance, temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen concentration on the photosynthesis and respiration rate. Results demonstrate that this strain tolerates temperatures up to 35ºC but it is highly sensitive to irradiances higher than 500 µE·m-2·s-1 and dissolved oxygen concentrations higher than 11 mg·l-1. With the researcher group of the “Universidad de Almeria”, the developed model was validated using data from an industrial-scale outdoor tubular photobioreactor demonstrating that inadequate temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations reduce productivity to half that which is maximal, according to light availability under real outdoor conditions. The developed model is a useful tool for managing working processes, especially in the development of new processes based on this strain and to take decisions regarding optimal control strategies. Also the outdoor production of Isochrysis galbana T-iso in industrial size tubular photobioreactors (3.0 m3) has been studied. Experiments were performed modifying the dilution rate and evaluating the biomass productivity and quality, in addition to the overall performance of the system. Results confirmed that T-iso can be produced outdoor at commercial scale in continuous mode, productivities up to 20 g·m-2·day-1 of biomass rich in proteins (45%) and lipids (25%) being obtained. The utilization of this type of photobioreactors allows controlling the contamination and pH of the cultures, but daily variation of solar radiation imposes the existence of inadequate dissolved oxygen concentration and temperature at which the cells are exposed to inside the reactor. Excessive dissolved oxygen reduced the biomass productivity to 68% of maximal, whereas inadequate temperature reduces to 63% of maximal. Thus, optimally controlling these parameters the biomass productivity can be duplicated. These results confirm the potential to produce this valuable strain at commercial scale in optimally designed/operated tubular photobioreactors as a biotechnological industry.
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Real living cell is a complex system governed by many process which are not yet fully understood: the process of cell differentiation is one of these. In this thesis work we make use of a cell differentiation model to develop gene regulatory networks (Boolean networks) with desired differentiation dynamics. To accomplish this task we have introduced techniques of automatic design and we have performed experiments using various differentiation trees. The results obtained have shown that the developed algorithms, except the Random algorithm, are able to generate Boolean networks with interesting differentiation dynamics. Moreover, we have presented some possible future applications and developments of the cell differentiation model in robotics and in medical research. Understanding the mechanisms involved in biological cells can gives us the possibility to explain some not yet understood dangerous disease, i.e the cancer. Le cellula è un sistema complesso governato da molti processi ancora non pienamente compresi: il differenziamento cellulare è uno di questi. In questa tesi utilizziamo un modello di differenziamento cellulare per sviluppare reti di regolazione genica (reti Booleane) con dinamiche di differenziamento desiderate. Per svolgere questo compito abbiamo introdotto tecniche di progettazione automatica e abbiamo eseguito esperimenti utilizzando vari alberi di differenziamento. I risultati ottenuti hanno mostrato che gli algoritmi sviluppati, eccetto l'algoritmo Random, sono in grado di poter generare reti Booleane con dinamiche di differenziamento interessanti. Inoltre, abbiamo presentato alcune possibili applicazioni e sviluppi futuri del modello di differenziamento in robotica e nella ricerca medica. Capire i meccanismi alla base del funzionamento cellulare può fornirci la possibilità di spiegare patologie ancora oggi non comprese, come il cancro.