Production Quality Analysis of Special Elevator Cars Based on Six Sigma Approach

Project scope is to utilize Six Sigma DMAIC approach and lean principles to improve production quality of the case company. Six Sigma tools and techniques are explored through a literature review and later used in the quality control phase. The focus is set on the Pareto analysis to demonstrate the most evident development areas in the production. Materials that are not delivered to the customer or materials that damaged during transportation comprise the biggest share of all feedbacks. The goal is set to reduce these feedbacks by 50 %. Production observation pointed out that not only material shortages but also over-production is a daily situation. As a result, an initial picking list where the purchased and own production components can be seen, is created, reduction of over- and underproduction and material marking improvement are seen the most competitive options so that the goal can be reached. The picking list development should still continue to make sure that the list can be used not only in the case study but also in the industrial scale. The reduction of material missing category can be evaluated reliably not sooner than in few years because it takes time to gather the needed statistical information.

Offshoring and outsourcing under demand uncertainty -a supply chain management analysis

Outsourcing and offshoring or any combinations of these have not just become a popular phenomenon, but are viewed as one of the most important management strategies due to the new possibilities from globalization. They have been seen as a possibility to save costs and improve customer service. Executing offshoring and offshore outsourcing successfully can be more complex than initially expected. Potential cost savings resulting from of offshoring and offshore outsourcing are often based on lower manufacturing costs. However, these benefits might be conflicted by a more complex supply chain with service level challenges that can respectively increase costs. Therefore analyzing the total cost effects of offshoring and outsourcing is necessary. The aim of this Master´s Thesis was to to construct a total cost model using academic literature to calculate the total costs and analyze the reasonability of offshoring and offshore outsourcing production of a case company compared to insourcing production. The research data was mainly quantitative and collected mainly from the case company past sales and production records. In addition management level interviews from the case company were conducted. The information from these interviews was used for the qualification of the necessary quantitative data and adding supportive information that could not be gathered from the quantitative data. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference that was based on academic literature concerning offshoring and outsourcing, statistical calculation of demand and total costs. The results confirm the theories that offshoring and offshore outsourcing would reduce total costs as both offshoring and offshore outsourcing options result in lower total annual costs than insourcing mainly due to lower manufacturing costs. However, increased demand uncertainty would make the alternative of offshore outsourcing more risky and difficult to manage. Therefore when assessing the overall impact of the alternatives, offshoring is the most preferable option. As the main cost savings in offshore outsourcing came from lower manufacturing costs, more specifically labour costs, the logistics costs in this case company did not have an essential effect in total costs. The management should therefore pay attention initially to manufacturing costs and then logistics costs when choosing the best production sourcing option for the company.

A Temporal Analysis of Emotions in Girls' Secondary School Physical Education Games and Fitness Classes

Female enthusiasm towards engaging in physical education (PE) significantly decreases with age as it provides females with positive and negative emotional experiences. This study examined emotions within four grade nine female PE soccer and fitness classes (N = 67). Emotional patterns were studied over time and across two units of instruction and in relation to student grades. A mixed-method approach was utilized assessing the state emotions of shame, enjoyment, anxiety, and social physique anxiety (SPA). Results revealed unsatisfactory internal consistency for shame and thus it was removed. Statistical analysis revealed no significant changes in emotions over time, whereas qualitative analysis found that state emotions were inconsistent. Statistical analysis indicated that students in the fitness classes reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and SPA on the final class (p < .01). Qualitative analysis signaled different origins and themes of students‟ emotions. No predictive relationship between emotion and students‟ grade was found.

Family attitudes toward the deinstitutionalization of individuals with developmental disabilities in Ontario : a quality of life analysis

The deinstitutionalization of individuals with developmental disabilities to community-based residential services is a pervasive international trend. Although controversial, the remaining three institutions in Ontario were closed in March of 2009. Since these closures, there has been limited research on the effects of deinstitutionalization. The following retrospective study evaluated family perceptions of the impact of deinstitutionalization on the quality of life of fifty-five former residents one year post-closure utilizing a survey design and conceptual quality of life framework. The methods used to analyze the survey results included descriptive statistical analyses and thematic analyses. Overall, the results suggest that most family members are satisfied with community placement and supports, and report an improved quality of life for their family member with a developmental disability. These findings were consistent with previously published studies demonstrating the short-term and long-term benefits of community living for most individuals with developmental disabilities and their families.

Expenditures on Lotteries: What Do People Say and Wht They Do? a Econometric Analysis.

Underdeclarations Are Typical When Alcohol, Tobacco and Gambling Consumptions Are Questioned in Surveys. Recent Surveys on Expenditures on Lotteries Have Similar Problems: the Declared Expenditures Equal Between 60 to 65 Percent of the Revenues of the Various State-Run Lottery Entreprises. by Using the Relatively Accurate Data on the Revenue Side of This Industry One Can Deal with the Problem of Underdeclarations of Consumption Patterns in Suveys and Obtain Better Income Elasticity Estimates. the Statistical Analysis Permits to Test Specific Hypotheses on a Lottery Model Developed by Brenner, and Suggests Broader Implications Both for Future Econometric Analysis and the Confidence One Gives to Elasticity Estimates Derived From Aggregate Sectorial Data for All Consumption Expenditures.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

New statistical methods to assess the effect of time-dependent exposures in case-control studies

Contexte. Les études cas-témoins sont très fréquemment utilisées par les épidémiologistes pour évaluer l’impact de certaines expositions sur une maladie particulière. Ces expositions peuvent être représentées par plusieurs variables dépendant du temps, et de nouvelles méthodes sont nécessaires pour estimer de manière précise leurs effets. En effet, la régression logistique qui est la méthode conventionnelle pour analyser les données cas-témoins ne tient pas directement compte des changements de valeurs des covariables au cours du temps. Par opposition, les méthodes d’analyse des données de survie telles que le modèle de Cox à risques instantanés proportionnels peuvent directement incorporer des covariables dépendant du temps représentant les histoires individuelles d’exposition. Cependant, cela nécessite de manipuler les ensembles de sujets à risque avec précaution à cause du sur-échantillonnage des cas, en comparaison avec les témoins, dans les études cas-témoins. Comme montré dans une étude de simulation précédente, la définition optimale des ensembles de sujets à risque pour l’analyse des données cas-témoins reste encore à être élucidée, et à être étudiée dans le cas des variables dépendant du temps. Objectif: L’objectif général est de proposer et d’étudier de nouvelles versions du modèle de Cox pour estimer l’impact d’expositions variant dans le temps dans les études cas-témoins, et de les appliquer à des données réelles cas-témoins sur le cancer du poumon et le tabac. Méthodes. J’ai identifié de nouvelles définitions d’ensemble de sujets à risque, potentiellement optimales (le Weighted Cox model and le Simple weighted Cox model), dans lesquelles différentes pondérations ont été affectées aux cas et aux témoins, afin de refléter les proportions de cas et de non cas dans la population source. Les propriétés des estimateurs des effets d’exposition ont été étudiées par simulation. Différents aspects d’exposition ont été générés (intensité, durée, valeur cumulée d’exposition). Les données cas-témoins générées ont été ensuite analysées avec différentes versions du modèle de Cox, incluant les définitions anciennes et nouvelles des ensembles de sujets à risque, ainsi qu’avec la régression logistique conventionnelle, à des fins de comparaison. Les différents modèles de régression ont ensuite été appliqués sur des données réelles cas-témoins sur le cancer du poumon. Les estimations des effets de différentes variables de tabac, obtenues avec les différentes méthodes, ont été comparées entre elles, et comparées aux résultats des simulations. Résultats. Les résultats des simulations montrent que les estimations des nouveaux modèles de Cox pondérés proposés, surtout celles du Weighted Cox model, sont bien moins biaisées que les estimations des modèles de Cox existants qui incluent ou excluent simplement les futurs cas de chaque ensemble de sujets à risque. De plus, les estimations du Weighted Cox model étaient légèrement, mais systématiquement, moins biaisées que celles de la régression logistique. L’application aux données réelles montre de plus grandes différences entre les estimations de la régression logistique et des modèles de Cox pondérés, pour quelques variables de tabac dépendant du temps. Conclusions. Les résultats suggèrent que le nouveau modèle de Cox pondéré propose pourrait être une alternative intéressante au modèle de régression logistique, pour estimer les effets d’expositions dépendant du temps dans les études cas-témoins

A zooarchaeological analysis of a late Dorset faunal assemblage from the KcFs-2 site (Nunavik, Quebec).

Ce mémoire consiste en une analyse zooarchéologique d’un assemblage faunique provenant d’un site Dorsétien des Îles Nuvuk dans l’Arctique canadien. Les données fauniques ont été analysées statistiquement en appliquant des indices d’utilité économique et des indices de densité des os. Une étude concernant le niveau de conservation de l’assemblage a révélé peu d’évidence de modification taphonomique des spécimens. Les analyses fauniques ont permis d’identifier une stratégie de subsistance de type généraliste et basée sur l’exploitation de mammifères marins, surtout des phoques annelés, pratiquée par les occupants du site de KcFs-2. Une prédominance d’individus immatures (phoques annelés) dans l’assemblage indique une abondance de ressources marines dans les régions du nord de la Baie d’Hudson et du détroit d’Hudson au moment de l’occupation, ce qui est aussi manifeste dans des études antérieures concernant les économies des peuples du Paléoesquimau tardif pour la période donnée. L’occupation du site de KcFs-2 s’est produite durant la période du Dorsétien récent au Nunavik (1500-800 B.P.), et la séquence est définie comme ayant été multi-saisonnière (de l’hiver à l’été). L’analyse des produits de l’industrie osseuse (têtes de harpons et sculptures en ivoire) a permis de confirmer l’affiliation culturelle des occupants.

Statistical methods for insurance fraud detection

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Assessment of Tandem Mass Spectrometry and High Resolution Mass Spectrometry for the Analysis of Bupivacaine in Plasma

Triple quadrupole mass spectrometers coupled with high performance liquid chromatography are workhorses in quantitative bioanalyses. It provides substantial benefits including reproducibility, sensitivity and selectivity for trace analysis. Selected Reaction Monitoring allows targeted assay development but data sets generated contain very limited information. Data mining and analysis of non-targeted high-resolution mass spectrometry profiles of biological samples offer the opportunity to perform more exhaustive assessments, including quantitative and qualitative analysis. The objectives of this study was to test method precision and accuracy, statistically compare bupivacaine drug concentration in real study samples and verify if high resolution and accurate mass data collected in scan mode can actually permit retrospective data analysis, more specifically, extract metabolite related information. The precision and accuracy data presented using both instruments provided equivalent results. Overall, the accuracy was ranging from 106.2 to 113.2% and the precision observed was from 1.0 to 3.7%. Statistical comparisons using a linear regression between both methods reveal a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9996 and a slope of 1.02 demonstrating a very strong correlation between both methods. Individual sample comparison showed differences from -4.5% to 1.6% well within the accepted analytical error. Moreover, post acquisition extracted ion chromatograms at m/z 233.1648 ± 5 ppm (M-56) and m/z 305.2224 ± 5 ppm (M+16) revealed the presence of desbutyl-bupivacaine and three distinct hydroxylated bupivacaine metabolites. Post acquisition analysis allowed us to produce semiquantitative evaluations of the concentration-time profiles for bupicavaine metabolites.

An Extended Pearson System Useful In Reliability Analysis

In the present environment, industry should provide the products of high quality. Quality of products is judged by the period of time they can successfully perform their intended functions without failure. The cause of the failures can be ascertained through life testing experiments and the times to failure due to different cause are likely to follow different distributions. Knowledge of this distribution is essential to eliminate causes of failures and thereby to improve the quality and the reliability of products. The main accomplishment expected to the study is to develop statistical tools that could facilitate solution to lifetime data arising in such and similar contexts

Detection of microcalcifications in mammograms using local maxima andadaptive wavelet transform analysis

A method for computer- aided diagnosis of micro calcification clusters in mammograms images presented . Micro calcification clus.eni which are an early sign of bread cancer appear as isolated bright spots in mammograms. Therefore they correspond to local maxima of the image. The local maxima of the image is lint detected and they are ranked according to it higher-order statistical test performed over the sub band domain data

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.