Cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR) para o Ibovespa, pós crise de 2008, por meio dos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional (GARCH) e de volatilidade estocástica (Local Scale Model - LSM)

O objetivo deste estudo é propor a implementação de um modelo estatístico para cálculo da volatilidade, não difundido na literatura brasileira, o modelo de escala local (LSM), apresentando suas vantagens e desvantagens em relação aos modelos habitualmente utilizados para mensuração de risco. Para estimação dos parâmetros serão usadas as cotações diárias do Ibovespa, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2014, e para a aferição da acurácia empírica dos modelos serão realizados testes fora da amostra, comparando os VaR obtidos para o período de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. Foram introduzidas variáveis explicativas na tentativa de aprimorar os modelos e optou-se pelo correspondente americano do Ibovespa, o índice Dow Jones, por ter apresentado propriedades como: alta correlação, causalidade no sentido de Granger, e razão de log-verossimilhança significativa. Uma das inovações do modelo de escala local é não utilizar diretamente a variância, mas sim a sua recíproca, chamada de “precisão” da série, que segue uma espécie de passeio aleatório multiplicativo. O LSM captou todos os fatos estilizados das séries financeiras, e os resultados foram favoráveis a sua utilização, logo, o modelo torna-se uma alternativa de especificação eficiente e parcimoniosa para estimar e prever volatilidade, na medida em que possui apenas um parâmetro a ser estimado, o que representa uma mudança de paradigma em relação aos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional.

Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100

Neste trabalho, propomos uma especificação de modelo econométrico na forma reduzida, estimado por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) e baseado em variáveis macroeconômicas, com o objetivo de explicar os retornos trimestrais do índice de ações IBRX-100, entre 2001 e 2015. Testamos ainda a eficiência preditiva do modelo e concluímos que o erro de previsão estimado em janela móvel, com re-estimação de MQO a cada rodada, e utilização de VAR auxiliar para projeção dos regressores, é significativamente inferior ao erro de previsão associado à hipótese de Random Walk para o horizonte de previsão de um trimestre a frente.

Uma abordagem GVAR de previsões de taxas de câmbio

O presente trabalho propõe um modelo de previsão simultânea de taxas de câmbio de vários países utilizando a abordagem GVAR e analisa a qualidade destas previsões. Para isso foram utilizados dados de 10 países ou regiões de taxa de câmbio, taxas de juros e nível de preços com frequência mensal entre 2003 e 2015. As previsões foram feitas utilizando janela móvel de 60 meses e avaliadas através da comparação dos erros quadráticos médios contra o benchmark padrão, o random walk, e dos testes de Pesaran e Timmermann e de Diebold e Mariano. Foram feitas previsões out-of-sample para horizontes de 1, 3, 12 e 18 meses. Os resultados mostram que o modelo proposto não consegue superar sistematicamente o random walk, contudo apresenta algum poder de previsão em alguns casos específicos

Morfologia, performance e fatores contextuais do nadador salvador infanto-juvenil madeirense

O objetivo central do presente estudo foi triplo: (1) reunir a bibliografia existente sobre o nadador infanto-juvenil; (2) avaliar a estrutura, a composição corporal e a aptidão física geral e específica do nadador infanto-juvenil madeirense e (3) investigar as relações entre o crescimento físico humano, a aptidão física e as variáveis contextuais. A amostra incluiu 97 nadadores, 46 do sexo masculino e 51 do sexo feminino, 11-16 anos, que integravam 4 clubes de Natação Pura Desportiva da Região Autónoma da Madeira. A altura, o peso corporal, a envergadura, os diâmetros ósseos, os comprimentos e larguras, os perímetros musculares e as pregas de adiposidade subcutânea foram medidos. A aptidão física geral e específica, a atividade física, o estatuto socioeconómico (ESE) e a prática desportiva foram quantificados. O teste t, o teste de Mann-Whitney U, o teste para a diferença entre duas proporções independentes e a análise de regressão múltipla foram utilizados na análise estatística dos dados. Os nadadores apresentaram valores médios mais elevados do que as nadadoras na altura, peso corporal, envergadura, comprimento e/ou largura dos segmentos e na quase totalidade dos diâmetros ósseos e perímetros musculares. As nadadoras apresentaram valores médios mais elevados do que os nadadores nas pregas de adiposidade subcutânea. Os nadadores apresentaram mais massa isenta de gordura do que as nadadoras. O tipo físico do nadador foi mesomorfo equilibrado (3,2-4,6-3,1) e o da nadadora endo-mesomorfo (4,3-3,5-2,9). Os nadadores apresentaram desempenhos mais elevados na quase totalidade dos testes motores. As nadadoras foram mais proficientes no ‘sit and reach’. As nadadoras, 14-16 anos, apresentaram valores médios mais elevados no peso corporal, envergadura, diâmetro biacromial, percentagem de gordura, batimento em placas, ‘sit ups’, anos de prática formal e total de horas de treino semanal, comparativamente aos 11-13 anos. As nadadoras foram, também, mais altas e pesadas, aos 11-13 anos, do que as não-atletas. A idade, o rácio envergadura/altura, a percentagem de gordura corporal, o ‘sit and reach’, o salto em comprimento sem corrida preparatória, os ‘sit ups’, o ‘shuttle run’, a corrida de 12 minutos, o índice dos tempos livres e o total de competições nacionais por época desportiva explicaram 75,9% da variância no teste de nado de 12 minutos. Os resultados demonstraram um diferencial morfofuncional em função do sexo, idade e população de estudo. Os preditores do teste de nado de 12 minutos foram os indicadores de crescimento físico humano, a aptidão física e as variáveis contextuais.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

PEDRINI, Aldomar; WESTPHAL, F. S.; LAMBERT, R.. A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates. Building And Environment, Australia, n. 37, p.903-912, 2002. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

A gestão da informação sob a luz do Enterprise Content Management (ECM): um estudo de caso em uma universidade pública

This work involves the organization and content perspectives on Enterprise Content Management (ECM) framework. The case study at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte was based on ECM model to analyse the information management provided by the three main administrative systems: The Integrated Management of Academic Activities (SIGAA), Integrated System of Inheritance, and Contracts Administration (SIPAC) and the Integrated System for Administration and Human Resources (SIGRH). A case study protocol was designed to provide greater reliability to research process. Four propositions were examined in order to reach the specific objectives of identification and evaluation of ECM components from UFRN perspective. The preliminary phase provided the guidelines for the data collection. In total, 75 individuals were interviewed. Interviews with four managers directly involved on systems design were recorded (average duration of 90 minutes). The 70 remaining individuals were approached in random way in UFRN s units, including teachers, administrative-technical employees and students. The results showed the presence of many ECM elements in the management of UFRN administrative information. The technological component with higher presence was "management of web content / collaboration". But initiatives of other components (e.g. email and document management) were found and are in continuous improvement. The assessment made use of eQual 4.0 to examine the effectiveness of applications under three factors: usability, quality of information and offered service. In general, the quality offered by the systems was very good and walk side by side with the obtained benefits of ECM strategy adoption in the context of the whole institution

Voleibol brasileiro : parâmetros fenotípicos e genotípicos na seleção de atletas

Objective: Identify phenotype and genotype parameters of female volleyball players at different performance levels to help in player selection. Methods: We identified characteristics of phenotype and genotype using the somatotype method (Heath Carter); anthropometry (weight, height and fat percentage); dermatoglyphics (Cummins and Midlo s method) as well as applying physical quality tests (Shuttle Run to assess agility and the Sargent Jump Test adapted for spike and block reach). The sample was composed of 179 players (54 from national teams and 125 from state teams). Results: Somatotype was similar among the performance levels in the mesomorphic component. The Height and ectomorphic component were greater in national team players as was spike and block reach. The vertical jump height for the spike was similar between the national under-17 team and the state teams observed, but in the block jump the lower level players were better. The dermatoglyphics characteristics identified were similar among the groups studied. Conclusions: The results of the variables studied show that somatotype, height, spike reach and block reach are fundamental parameters in player selection and in the specific characteristics of each game position of this sport. This paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach applicable in the fields of physical education, medicine and nutrition

Marcadores genéticos, antropometria e qualidades físicas básicas nos estágios maturacionais de nadadores paraibanos

The aim of this research was to analyse genetic markers, anthropometry and basic physical qualities in the differret stages of sexual maturation in swimmers in Paraíba. It is characterised as a descriptive cross sectional study. The sample was composed of 119 swimmers (males) that were divided among the stages of sexual maturation, from 7 to 17,9 years of age. They were associated to a local federation, the Confederação Brasileira de Desportes Aquáticos. The tests used were: genetic markers dermatoglyphics; Anthropometry body mass, stature, arm span, fat percentage and somatotype; physical qualities speed tests (25 meters crawl), strength (vertical jump) to inferior limbs, verarm throwing arremesso of a 2kg medicineball to superior limbs and abdominal), resistence (12 minutes to swimming), agility (he multistage 20-meter shuttle run test), flexibility (sit and reach test ) and coodination (stroke index); power of swimming (mean velocity in 25 meters mutiplied by body mass) and the self assessment of the sexual maturation supervised by a pediatric specialist. In the analyses we used the test normality of Shapiro-Wilk, then, we used ANOVA- one way followed by Post-Hoc test of Scheffé. The data showed in dermatogliphics a genetic tendence to velocity (L>W) with a predominance of the meso-ectomorphic somatotype profile; in relation to the physical qualities there was an evolution of the results in every stage due to the antropometric variables, except in the coordination tests. There were no significative differences between the stages. We conclude that swimming in Paraíba is composed of a signicative number of velocists with a mesomorph somatotype profile and low fat percentage, and that made it posssible to us to recomend that the trainings must be individual and according to personal characteristics of each athlete, and that the used variables must be specific for every region of the country. This dissertation presents a relation of multidiciplinar interface and its content has an application in Physical Education and Medicine

Exercício aeróbico, resistência de artéria carótidae autonomia funcional em mulheres idosas

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of an aerobic exercise program on the internal right carotid resistive index (IRCRI) and the functional autonomy levels of elderly women. The sample was composed of 25 elderly sedentary women, aged between 60 and 75 years, allocated into two groups: an experimental group consisting of 14 women submitted to aerobic treatment and a control group (n=11). Carotid artery resistance assessment was conducted using Doppler ultrasound and functional autonomy by the following tests: 10m walk (10mW), rising from a sitting position (RSP), rising from a chair and moving about the house (RCMH), rising from the ventral decubitus position (RVDP) and putting on and removing a t-shirt (PRTS). Aerobic training consisted of walking 30 minutes a day, 3 times a week, for 3 months. To control the intensity of the walk, the index of perceived exertion was used, with standardized Borg scale values corresponding to 13-15 points, characterized as slightly tiring exercise with training heart rate (TRH) between 50% and 80% of heart rate reserve (HRR). Repeated measures ANOVA was used for statistical analysis. Compared to the control, the experimental group obtained a statistically significant decrease in right internal carotid resistance (p = 0.021) and a significant increase in the following tests: 10mW (p=0.000), RSP (p=0.035) and RCMH (p=0.016). These results suggest that engaging in aerobic exercises was effective in decreasing IRCRI and improving functional autonomy inelderly women

Estudo da correlação das características dermatoglífica e somatotípica com as qualidades físicas das atletas de voleibol da Seleção Infanto-juvenil do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

The purpose of the present study is to identify the dermatoglyphic and somatotypic characteristics and the physical qualities of athletes from the under-17 State volleyball team, in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The sample was composed of athletes, n = 14, aged 15.0 ± 0.88 years, weight (Kg) 58.3 ± 5.90 and height (cm) 169.4 ± 7.97, members of the referred team. For data collection Cummins & Midlo s (1942), o dermatoglyphic method and Heath & Carter s (1967) somatotypic method were used and to evaluate physical qualities, 2400m, 50m, Shuttle Run, abdominal , Sargent test and medicine-ball toss were performed. Fingerprints show that the group presents genetic predisposition for the following physical qualities: explosive force and velocity. As to somatotype, the group was endo-ectomorphic. At physical evaluation the group presented low Vo2 max values and reasonable levels of explosive force, local muscular endurance, agility and velocity. We conclude that: according to the dermatoglyphic model observed, the group needs training strategies to improve coordination and agility; somatotype reveals the necessity for reducing fat levels and increasing muscular mass; the evaluation of physical qualities demonstrates the need for better physical preparation. This study traces the profile of the under-17 volleyball player from Rio Grande do Norte, with respect to genetic and somatotypic aspects and physical qualities, which will serve as a parameter for future state teams

The Beatles: ensaio sobre a ética do amor

The thesis intends to discuss the ethics by the way of love. So, it uses as a mention the musical work and the set of attitudes of the group that changed the way of thinking across the 20th Century mass-comm, entering a new way of thinking about the World: The Beatles. Analyzing the lyrics and the writing of the songs was searched the comprehension of he intrinsic love message at the Ethics it expresses. At the musical art of The Beatles political messages had been announced in a time that the World sought a Ethic way beyond the several declared war and the Cold War. Taking the Edgar Morin works as a base, O método 6, Ética (2005), it sought to understand the idea who permeates the human relations: the good, the possible, the necessary. Another works used as a cognitive base were Meus demônios (2003), Cultura de massas no Século XX: neurose (2005), Cultura de massas no Século XX (2006), The Beatles Anthology (2000) and Many years from now (2000). Holding the Ethics idea showed by Morin were established imaginary lines that perpass the behavior of the group known in the entire World understood till nowadays as tolerance, comprehension, peace, love and endurance messengers. The Beatles operate during the sixties a musical reborn, which allowed to the people the discussion and the reflexion about the World and the human being new behavior,endurance but acting with tolerance. Permeating the basic study, we find the Beatles way, the group origin, the fast walk till success, the spiritual choice, who guide their behavior and the end of the band. The music used as a masscomp instrument passes by the condition of a simple way of communicating. It deeply action feeds feelings, allows transcendence and is showed as target of human being transformation. The Ethics in music passes by the ideological barriers and becomes to comprehension with a clear synthony for the man, cause the polyphony and the new musical order establish the messages worldwide

Percursos para novas imagens: a produção audiovisual por não videntes

The purpose is to write a reflection on the audiovisual production by the visually impaired. The starting point for this research was a documentary video production workshop offered by the Instituto de Educação e Reabilitação de Cegos do Rio Grande do Norte - IERC / RN, with the participation of blind people with low vision and sighted employees of the institution. The research approach follows the precepts of complex thinking, where work is woven into the network, along with the researched. The theoretical framework is based on the theory of French sociologist Edgar Morin, and other important thinkers for this work, namely: Erving Goffman, Paulo Freire, Michel Foucault, Edward Said, Jacques Aumont, Phillpe Dubois, as well as scholars who think and theorize about his own condition and conduct discussions on the issue of blindness: Francisco Jose de Lima, Evgen Bavcar Jacques Lusseyran and Joana Belarmino. The research was formulated based on the statement in the interest of respondents to understand and produce visual images using video as a tool. In this sense, the methodology adopted approaches of action research in constructing the text and dialogue with the participation of those involved in the project. The technique of gathering the information was based on ethnographic description describing the dynamics of the workshop, the relationships between participants, relationship to the other that sees and the manner of operation of equipment. The main focus is the relationship based on dialogue of information, attitudes and ways of knowing from experience and capacity developed and obstacles for blind people to produce visual images using other benchmarks, such as touch, smell and time dimension and space, and add references that give new meaning to the guidelines based on visuality of ministering to the workshop. It is also held to discuss aspects related to the concept of image with sociological reflection about the audiovisual production made by blind people socially constructed and perpetuated by what Edgar Morin called cultural imprinting. Thus we attempted to walk the route with its obstacles and achievements in the production of new images that were seen

Memórias de um palhaço: O rito de passagem de Roger Avanzi para o palhaço Picolino II

This dissertaion reflects about life's trajectory of a specific clown: Roger Avanzi, who gives animus to the clown Picolino II. The main objective is to promove reflections about the insertion of the clowns in the universe of the circus, to make us comprehend the process of formation of a clown formed in a traditional circus family. In this research, we begin of the conjecture that, through the individual memory we can think about rebuild the process of a professional's integral formation.Then, we trace the itinerary of Roger Avanzi, the clown Picolino II, think that it has possibilities, in this case, to discuss about what is a clown's formation when it come from a traditional circus family. To walk on this universe, a huge numer of authors that deeply studyed about the circus ans the clowns, like: Avanzi; Tamaoki (2004), Bolognesi (2003), Castro (2005), Pantano (2007), Ruiz (1987), Silva (1997) e Torres (1998). We bring then, a theoric base that certainly, fortifies and corroborates our thoughts and reflections about the universe of circus and the trajectory of clown's formation, with special atention to Roger Avanzi, fundamentals i studies about it and with memories like Halbwachs's (2004) and Bosi's (1994). The reflections enabled to conclude that a clown doesn't born done; it becomes in the cultural trajectory, in which all the human are inserted

Relative potency of ketamine and S(+)-ketamine in dogs

The aim of this study was to determine the relative potency of racemic ketamine and S(+)-ketamine for the hypnotic effect and to evaluate the clinical anesthesia produced by equianesthetic doses of these two substances in dogs. One hundred and eight dogs were allocated in groups R2, R2.5, R3, R6, R9, R12, S2, S2.5, S3, S6, S9, and S12, to receive by intravenous route 2, 2.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12 mg/kg of ketamine or S(+)-ketamine, respectively. A dose-effect curve was drawn with the dose logarithm and the percentage of dogs that presented hypnosis in each group. The curve was used to obtain a linear regression, to determine the effective doses 100 and the potency relationship. In another experimental phase, eight groups of five dogs received 3, 6, 9 and 12 mg/kg of ketamine or S(+)-ketamine to evaluate the periods of latency, hypnosis, and total recovery. The times in which the dogs reached the sternal position, attempted to stand up for the first time, recovered the standing position, and started to walk were also recorded. The hypnotic dose for ketamine was 9.82 +/- 3.02 (6.86-16.5) mg/kg and for S(+)-ketamine was 7.76 +/- 2.17 (5.86-11.5) mg/kg. The time of hypnosis was longer in R3 and the first attempt to stand up occurred early in R6 when compared with S3 and S6 respectively. When R9 (100% of hypnosis with ketamine) and S6 [100% of hypnosis with S(+)-ketamine] were compared (1:1.5 ratio), the time to sternal position (12 +/- 2.5 and 20.2 +/- 5.6 min respectively) and the total recovery time (45 +/- 5.5 and 60.2 +/- 5.2 min respectively) were significantly shorter with S(+)-ketamine. It was concluded that the potency ratio between ketamine and S(+)-ketamine in dogs is smaller than the one reported in other species, and that the dose obtained after a reduction of 50%, as usually performed in humans, would not be enough to obtain equianesthetic effects in dogs.

Entre o mercado e a construção social: uma análise da experiência da implantação doPRONAF-infraestrutura e PRONAT nos territórios do Mato Grande-RN e sertão do Apodi-RN (1997 - 2010)

Analyzes the development experience in the Territories of Mato Grande and Sertão do Apodi in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, evaluating the actions of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture, specifically the line of infrastructure (PRONAF-INFRA), and the National Program for Sustainable Development of Rural Territories (PRONAT) in these territories. Summarizes the various rural development approaches and takes the theoretical assumptions of territorial development, the concept of constructed territory and market-plan territory, further the cycle model to analyze public policies selected these experiences. Thus, we propose to test the hypothesis that most of the actions implemented would lead to the formation of market-plan territories, in other words, perceived only as a platform for the presentation of projects. The literature and documents, combined with case studies, interviews and direct observation of the meetings of committees, showed that, despite two boards are under the same laws, rules and formal regulations, have clear differences when considering the theory and concepts that were used as reference. The Apodi s territory is closer to a constructed space thus the search for a broader agenda, more autonomous and more appropriate to the reality experienced by local actors. On other hand the Territory of Mato Grande had the characteristics of a market-plan territory more present. As the result, the territory of Sertão do Apodi accesses not only as part of a greater number of policies and funding sources, ensuring a greater and more diverse investment volume than the territory of Mato Grande. Despite these differences, studies have shown that territorial boards surveyed are still far from becoming the main forum for managing the development from conception planning socially constructed. Showed, finally, that territorial development strategy is relevant, but requires a long walk and a deep and continuous learning process to be successfully implemented in rural areas of Northeast Brazil