Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between January 2000 and December 2005. SETTING: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) is a collaboration of 15 HIV cohort studies from Canada, Europe, and the United States. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: A total of 13 546 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients initiating ART with efavirenz, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation (incident AIDS-defining event, death, and a composite measure of these two outcomes). RESULTS: Compared with efavirenz as initial third drug, short-term virologic failure was more common with all other third drugs evaluated; nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04-1.56) and abacavir (1.22, 95% CI = 1.00-1.48). CONCLUSION: Among antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating therapy, between-ART regimen, differences in short-term virologic failure do not necessarily translate to differences in clinical outcomes. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of residual confounding by indication.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Face Short-Term Memory-Related Electroencephalographic Patterns can Differentiate Multi- versus Single-Domain Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment.

Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is characterized by memory deficits alone (single-domain, sd-aMCI) or associated with other cognitive disabilities (multi-domain, md-aMCI). The present study assessed the patterns of electroencephalographic (EEG) activity during the encoding and retrieval phases of short-term memory in these two aMCI subtypes, to identify potential functional differences according to the neuropsychological profile. Continuous EEG was recorded in 43 aMCI patients, whose 16 sd-aMCI and 27 md-aMCI, and 36 age-matched controls (EC) during delayed match-to-sample tasks for face and letter stimuli. At encoding, attended stimuli elicited parietal alpha (8-12 Hz) power decrease (desynchronization), whereas distracting stimuli were associated with alpha power increase (synchronization) over right central sites. No difference was observed in parietal alpha desynchronization among the three groups. For attended faces, the alpha synchronization underlying suppression of distracting letters was reduced in both aMCI subgroups, but more severely in md-aMCI cases that differed significantly from EC. At retrieval, the early N250r recognition effect was significantly reduced for faces in md-aMCI as compared to both sd-aMCI and EC. The results suggest a differential alteration of working memory cerebral processes for faces in the two aMCI subtypes, face covert recognition processes being specifically altered in md-aMCI.

Male mutation bias and possible long-term effects of human activities.

The ability of a population to adapt to changing environments depends critically on the amount and kind of genetic variability it possesses. Mutations are an important source of new genetic variability and may lead to new adaptations, especially if the population size is large. Mutation rates are extremely variable between and within species, and males usually have higher mutation rates as a result of elevated rates of male germ cell division. This male bias affects the overall mutation rate. We examined the factors that influence male mutation bias, and focused on the effects of classical life-history parameters, such as the average age at reproduction and elevated rates of sperm production in response to sexual selection and sperm competition. We argue that human-induced changes in age at reproduction or in sexual selection will affect male mutation biases and hence overall mutation rates. Depending on the effective population size, these changes are likely to influence the long-term persistence of a population.

Short-term Hydropower Planning System

The Thesis gives a decision support framework that has significant impact on the economic performance and viability of a hydropower company. The studyaddresses the short-term hydropower planning problem in the Nordic deregulated electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms, hydropower system characteristics and production planning are presented in the Thesis. The related modelling theory and optimization methods are covered aswell. The Thesis provides a mixed integer linear programming model applied in asuccessive linearization method for optimal bidding and scheduling decisions inthe hydropower system operation within short-term horizon. A scenario based deterministic approach is exploited for modelling uncertainty in market price and inflow. The Thesis proposes a calibration framework to examine the physical accuracy and economic optimality of the decisions suggested by the model. A calibration example is provided with data from a real hydropower system using a commercial modelling application with the mixed integer linear programming solver CPLEX.

Short-term increase in particulate matter blunts nocturnal blood pressure dipping and daytime urinary sodium excretion

Short-term exposure to ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm were found to be positively associated with blood pressure. Yet, little information exists regarding the association between particles and circadian rhythm of blood pressure. Hence, we analyzed the association of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm on the day of examination and ≤7 days before with ambulatory blood pressure and with sodium excretion in 359 adults from the general population using multiple linear regression. After controlling for potential confounders, a 10-µg/m3 increase in particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm levels was associated with nighttime systolic blood pressure (β=1.32 mm Hg 95% CI, 0.06-2.58 mm Hg at lag 0; P=0.04), nighttime diastolic blood pressure (0.72 mm Hg 95% CI, 0.03-1.42 mm Hg at lag 2; P=0.04), nocturnal systolic blood pressure dipping (-0.96 mm Hg 95% CI, -1.89 to -0.03 mm Hg at lag 0; P=0.044), and daytime urinary sodium excretion (-0.05 log-mmol/min 95% CI, -0.10 to -0.01 log-mmol/min at lag 0; P=0.027) but not with nighttime sodium excretion. The associations with blood pressure rapidly diminished with increasing lag days, and the associations with daytime sodium excretion were maximal with particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm in exposures 2 to 5 days before. The associations of short-term increases in particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm with higher nighttime blood pressure and blunted systolic blood pressure dipping were preceded by associations with reduced ability of the kidney to excrete sodium during daytime. The underlying mechanism linking air pollution to increased cardiovascular risk may include disturbed circadian rhythms of renal sodium handling and blood pressure.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

A Method for Estimating Short-term Profitability, Case Stora Enso Packaging Boards

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa case yritykselle malli lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimointia varten. Tutkimusmetodi on konstruktiivinen, ja malli kehitettiin laskentaihmisten avustuksella. Teoriaosassa käytiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla läpi kannattavuutta, budjetointia sekä itse ennustamista. Teoriaosassa pyrittiin löytämään sellaisia menetelmiä, joita voitaisiin käyttää lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimoinnissa. Rakennettavalle mallille asetettujen vaatimusten mukaan menetelmäksi valittiin harkintaan perustuva menetelmä (judgmental). Tutkimuksen mukaan kannattavuuteen vaikuttaa myyntihinta ja –määrä, tuotanto, raaka-aineiden hinnat ja varaston muutos. Rakennettu malli toimii kohdeyrityksessä kohtalaisen hyvin ja huomattavaa on se, että eri tehtaiden ja eri koneiden väliset erot saattavat olla kohtuullisen suuret. Nämä erot johtuvat pääasiassa tehtaan koosta ja mallien erilaisuudesta. Mallin käytännön toimivuus tulee kuitenkin parhaiten selville silloin, kun se on laskentaihmisten käytössä. Ennustamiseen liittyy kuitenkin aina omat ongelmansa ja uudetkaan menetelmät eivät välttämättä poista näitä ongelmia.

Short-term HIIT and Fatmax training increase aerobic and metabolic fitness in men with class II and III obesity.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of two different 2-week-long training modalities [continuous at the intensity eliciting the maximal fat oxidation (Fatmax ) versus high-intensity interval training (HIIT)] in men with class II and III obesity. METHODS: Nineteen men with obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg(.) m(-2) ) were assigned to Fatmax group (GFatmax ) or to HIIT group (GHIIT ). Both groups performed eight cycling sessions matched for mechanical work. Aerobic fitness and fat oxidation rates (FORs) during exercise were assessed prior and following the training. Blood samples were drawn to determine hormones and plasma metabolites levels. Insulin resistance was assessed by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR). RESULTS: Aerobic fitness and FORs during exercise were significantly increased in both groups after training (P ≤ 0.001). HOMA2-IR was significantly reduced only for GFatmax (P ≤ 0.001). Resting non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and insulin decreased significantly only in GFatmax (P ≤ 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Two weeks of HIIT and Fatmax training are effective for the improvement of aerobic fitness and FORs during exercise in these classes of obesity. The decreased levels of resting NEFA only in GFatmax may be involved in the decreased insulin resistance only in this group.

Sources of variability of speech, spatial, and qualities of hearing scale (SSQ) scores in normal-hearing and hearing-impaired populations.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and quantify sources of variability in scores on the speech, spatial, and qualities of hearing scale (SSQ) and its short forms among normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects using a French-language version of the SSQ. DESIGN: Multi-regression analyses of SSQ scores were performed using age, gender, years of education, hearing loss, and hearing-loss asymmetry as predictors. Similar analyses were performed for each subscale (Speech, Spatial, and Qualities), for several SSQ short forms, and for differences in subscale scores. STUDY SAMPLE: One hundred normal-hearing subjects (NHS) and 230 hearing-impaired subjects (HIS). RESULTS: Hearing loss in the better ear and hearing-loss asymmetry were the two main predictors of scores on the overall SSQ, the three main subscales, and the SSQ short forms. The greatest difference between the NHS and HIS was observed for the Speech subscale, and the NHS showed scores well below the maximum of 10. An age effect was observed mostly on the Speech subscale items, and the number of years of education had a significant influence on several Spatial and Qualities subscale items. CONCLUSION: Strong similarities between SSQ scores obtained across different populations and languages, and between SSQ and short forms, underline their potential international use.

Effect of short-duration lipid supplementation on fat oxidation during exercise and cycling performance.

The effect of intramyocellular lipids (IMCLs) on endurance performance with high skeletal muscle glycogen availability remains unclear. Previous work has shown that a lipid-supplemented high-carbohydrate (CHO) diet increases IMCLs while permitting normal glycogen loading. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of fat supplementation on fat oxidation (Fox) and endurance performance. Twenty-two trained male cyclists performed 2 simulated time trials (TT) in a randomized crossover design. Subjects cycled at ∼53% maximal voluntary external power for 2 h and then followed 1 of 2 diets for 2.5 days: a high-CHO low-fat (HC) diet, consisting of CHO 7.4 g·kg(-1)·day(-1) and fat 0.5 g·kg(-1)·day(-1); or a high-CHO fat-supplemented (HCF) diet, which was a replication of the HC diet with ∼240 g surplus fat (30% saturation) distributed over the last 4 meals of the diet period. On trial morning, fasting blood was sampled and Fox was measured during an incremental exercise; a ∼1-h TT followed. Breath volatile compounds (VOCs) were measured at 3 time points. Mental fatigue, measured as reaction time, was evaluated during the TT. Plasma free fatty acid concentration was 50% lower after the HCF diet (p < 0.0001), and breath acetone was reduced (p < 0.05) "at rest". Fox peaked (∼0.35 g·kg(-1)) at ∼42% peak oxygen consumption, and was not influenced by diet. Performance was not significantly different between the HCF and HC diets (3369 ± 46 s vs 3398 ± 48 s; p = 0.39), nor were reaction times to the attention task and VOCs (p = NS for both). In conclusion, the short-term intake of a lipid supplement in combination with a glycogen-loading diet designed to boost intramyocellular lipids while avoiding fat adaptation did not alter substrate oxidation during exercise or 1-hour cycling performance.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Spatial variability of air dry bulb temperature and black globe humidity index in a broiler house during the heating phase

The air dry-bulb temperature (t db),as well as the black globe humidity index (BGHI), exert great influence on the development of broiler chickens during their heating phase. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the structure and the magnitude of the t db and BGHI spatial variability, using geostatistics tools such as semivariogram analysis and also producing kriging maps. The experiment was conducted in the west mesoregion of the states of Minas Gerais in 2010, in a commercial broiler house with heating system consisting of two furnaces that heat the air indirectly, in the firsts 14 days of the birds' life. The data were registered at intervals of five minutes in the period from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. The variables were evaluated by variograms fitted by residual maximum likelihood (REML) testing the Spherical and Exponential models. Kriging maps were generated based on the best model used to fit the variogram. It was possible to characterize the variability of the t db and BGHI, which allowed observing the spatial dependence by using geostatistics techniques. In addition, the use of geostatistics and distribution maps made possible to identify problems in the heating system in regions inside the broiler house that may harm the development of chicks.

Crop residues on short-term CO2 emissions in sugarcane production areas

The proper management of agricultural crop residues could produce benefits in a warmer, more drought-prone world. Field experiments were conducted in sugarcane production areas in the Southern Brazil to assess the influence of crop residues on the soil surface in short-term CO2 emissions. The study was carried out over a period of 50 days after establishing 6 plots with and without crop residues applied to the soil surface. The effects of sugarcane residues on CO2 emissions were immediate; the emissions from residue-covered plots with equivalent densities of 3 (D50) and 6 (D100) t ha-1 (dry mass) were less than those from non-covered plots (D0). Additionally, the covered fields had lower soil temperatures and higher soil moisture for most of the studied days, especially during the periods of drought. Total emissions were as high as 553.62 ± 47.20 g CO2 m-2, and as low as 384.69 ± 31.69 g CO2 m-2 in non-covered (D0) and covered plot with an equivalent density of 3 t ha-1 (D50), respectively. Our results indicate a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, indicating conservation of soil carbon over the short-term period following the application of sugarcane residues to the soil surface.

Short-term changes in handgrip strength, body composition, and lymphedema induced by breast cancer surgery

PURPOSE: This study investigated short-term changes in body composition, handgrip strength, and presence of lymphedema in women who underwent breast cancer surgery.METHODS: Ninety-five women participated in a cross-sectional study, divided into two groups: Control (n=46), with healthy women, and Experimental (n=49), with women six months after breast cancer surgery . The Experimental Group was subdivided into right total mastectomy (RTM, n=15), left total mastectomy (LTM, n=11), right quadrant (RQ, n=13), and left quadrant (LQ, n=10). It was also redistributed among women with presence (n=10) or absence (n=39) of lymphedema. Presence of lymphedema, handgrip strength, and body composition were assessed.RESULTS: Trunk lean mass and handgrip strength were decreased in the Experimental Group. Total lean mass was increased in the LTM compared to RTM or LQ. Left handgrip strength in LTM was decreased compared to RTM and RQ and in LQ compared to RTM and RQ. Finally, total lean mass, trunk fat mass, trunk lean mass, right and left arm lean mass were increased in women with lymphedema.CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer survivors have changes in their body composition and in handgrip strength six months after surgery; however, the interaction between the type of surgery and its impact is unclear. Furthermore, women who developed lymphedema in this period showed more significant changes in the body composition, but they were not enough to cause impairment in handgrip strength.