869 resultados para Risk model
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Resumo:
In this paper, the optimal reactive power planning problem under risk is presented. The classical mixed-integer nonlinear model for reactive power planning is expanded into two stage stochastic model considering risk. This new model considers uncertainty on the demand load. The risk is quantified by a factor introduced into the objective function and is identified as the variance of the random variables. Finally numerical results illustrate the performance of the proposed model, that is applied to IEEE 30-bus test system to determine optimal amount and location for reactive power expansion.
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014
Resumo:
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
To re-evaluate the safety of hormonal contraceptives (HC) after uterine evacuation of complete hydatidiform mole (CHM). Historical database review. Charing Cross Hospital Gestational Trophoblastic Disease Centre, London, United Kingdom. Two thousand four hundred and twenty-three women with CHM of whom 154 commenced HC while their human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) was still elevated, followed between 2003 and 2012. We compared time to hCG remission between HC users and nonusers. The relationship between HC use and gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) development was assessed. The relationship between HC use and a high International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) risk score was determined. Time to hCG remission, risk of developing postmolar GTN and proportion of women with high FIGO risk score. No relationship was observed between HC use with mean time to hCG remission (HC users versus non-users: 12 weeks in both, P = 0.19), GTN development (HC users versus non-users: 20.1 and 16.7%, P = 0.26) or high-risk FIGO score (HC users versus nonusers: 0% and 8%, P = 0.15). Moreover, no association between HC and GTN development was found, even when an age-adjusted model was used (OR = 1.37, 95% CI 0.91-2.08, P = 0.13). The use of current HC is not associated with development of postmolar GTN or delayed time to hCG remission. Therefore, HC can be safely used to prevent a new conception following CHM regardless of hCG level. Non-concurrent cohort study to re-evaluate the safety of low dose HCs after uterine evacuation of CHM.
Resumo:
The ingestion of probiotic lactic acid bacteria has been evaluated and noted that it has an effect on the balance of desirable microbiota in the gastrointestinal tract. Lactobacillus gasseri demonstrates good survival in the gastrointestinal tract, and it has been associated with a variety of probiotic activities and roles, including the reduction of fecal mutagenic enzymes, the production of bacteriocins and the stimulation of macrophages immunomodulation. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of a pool of L. gasseri strains isolated from the feces of breastfed infants added in the human milk of healthy women. The milk was both pasteurized and unpasteurized, to verify the cell cytotoxicity of macrophages and to quantify the production of immunologic mediators such as IL-4, IL-6, IFN-g, TNF-a, NO and oxygen intermediary compounds (H2O2). The administration of raw human milk and pasteurized human milk to infants is a regular, encouraged practice in units of intensive therapy (UITs) and our present investigation verified the beneficial effect of addition of a pool of L. gasseri to pasteurized human milk (PHML). Our results show that probiotic supplementation helped to maintain cell viability, reduced IL-6 and IFN-γ production and stimulated TNF-α, NO, H2O2, IL-4 production. Nevertheless, the results indicate that the addition of lactobacillus to human milk was not a determinant in the production of TNF-α. L. gasseri added to breast milk did not present a cytotoxic risk, and the addition of L. gasseri to pasteurized milk of human milk bank would benefit newborns that depend on milk banks for the colonization of more desirable microbiota.
Resumo:
Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.
Resumo:
Delayed lipoprotein clearance is associated with atherosclerosis. This study examined whether chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH), a hallmark of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), can lead to hyperlipidaemia by inhibiting clearance of triglyceride rich lipoproteins (TRLP). Male C57BL/6J mice on high-cholesterol diet were exposed to 4 weeks of CIH or chronic intermittent air (control). FIO2 was decreased to 6.5 once per minute during the 12 h light phase in the CIH group. After the exposure, we measured fasting lipid profile. TRLP clearance was assessed by oral gavage of retinyl palmitate followed by serum retinyl esters (REs) measurements at 0, 1, 2, 4, 10, and 24 h. Activity of lipoprotein lipase (LpL), a key enzyme of lipoprotein clearance, and levels of angiopoietin-like protein 4 (Angptl4), a potent inhibitor of the LpL activity, were determined in the epididymal fat pads, skeletal muscles, and heart. Chronic intermittent hypoxia induced significant increases in levels of total cholesterol and triglycerides, which occurred in TRLP and LDL fractions (P 0.05 for each comparison). Compared with control mice, animals exposed to CIH showed increases in REs throughout first 10 h after oral gavage of retinyl palmitate (P 0.05), indicating that CIH inhibited TRLP clearance. CIH induced a 5-fold decrease in LpL activity (P 0.01) and an 80 increase in Angptl4 mRNA and protein levels in the epididymal fat, but not in the skeletal muscle or heart. CIH decreases TRLP clearance and inhibits LpL activity in adipose tissue, which may contribute to atherogenesis observed in OSA.