A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Experiencing information across the phenomenon of health information literacy

Interest in the concept of information literacy in different contexts is a topic that has steadily gained increased attention in information literacy discourse and research efforts over recent years. In particular the emergence of the term ‘health information literacy’ attests to this interest and has elevated awareness about the importance and relevance of information literacy in a health context. This paper reports on research that has taken a relational perspective to explore how people experience health information literacy. Initially established by Bruce (1997) the relational perspective draws from an experiential framework that emphasizes the relationship between users and information when learning in different contexts. This approach seeks outcomes that are deeply embedded in users’ informational life worlds and complements experiential phenomenological perspectives that have been used in health research. In keeping with the relational approach this research interprets health information literacy as being the different ways in which people experience using information to learn about health. Using interpretive phenomenography, this research explored variation in the lived experience of how people use information to learn about their health, and variation in what is constituted as information when learning about their health. Participants included 23 males and females aged between 45 and 64 years. All participants were residents from the Greater Brisbane area of Queensland, Australia. The research used semi-structured interviews for data collection. The types of questions posed during interviews included ‘Can you describe a time when you used information to learn about your health?’ and ‘What kinds of information have you used to learn about your health?’. This paper will focus on presenting one element of research findings that concerns the differences in ‘what’ participants experienced as information. Analysis of interview data identified significant variation in the experienced nature of information, specifically the different qualities or elements that comprised the ‘object’ of information, or in other words, what was perceived as ‘informing’. Illustrations of this variation include information experienced as traditional information sources, facts and experiences, something exhibiting particular qualities, physical or psychological changes, other people and role models. These findings provide new insights into what people may experience as information, and build upon existing literature regarding information as a theoretical construct. In addition the potential implications of these findings with respect to the design and delivery of health information literacy education will also be discussed. These research findings contribute to the emergence of information literacy investigations in everyday life and community. Although such settings have long been identified as a significant gap for exploration, research to date in this field has predominantly focused on educational and workplace environments. In this way the knowledge gained from this research has further revealed the contextual nature of information literacy, as well as its complexity as a phenomenon and focus of study.

Antibiotics for bronchiectasis exacerbations in children: rationale and study protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background Despite bronchiectasis being increasingly recognised as an important cause of chronic respiratory morbidity in both indigenous and non-indigenous settings globally, high quality evidence to inform management is scarce. It is assumed that antibiotics are efficacious for all bronchiectasis exacerbations, but not all practitioners agree. Inadequately treated exacerbations may risk lung function deterioration. Our study tests the hypothesis that both oral azithromycin and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid are superior to placebo at improving resolution rates of respiratory exacerbations by day 14 in children with bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis. Methods We are conducting a bronchiectasis exacerbation study (BEST), which is a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial, in five centres (Brisbane, Perth, Darwin, Melbourne, Auckland). In the component of BEST presented here, 189 children fulfilling inclusion criteria are randomised (allocation-concealed) to receive amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (22.5 mg/kg twice daily) with placebo-azithromycin; azithromycin (5 mg/kg daily) with placebo-amoxicillin-clavulanic acid; or placebo-azithromycin with placebo-amoxicillin-clavulanic acid for 14 days. Clinical data and a paediatric cough-specific quality of life score are obtained at baseline, at the start and resolution of exacerbations, and at day 14. In most children, blood and deep nasal swabs are also collected at the same time points. The primary outcome is the proportion of children whose exacerbations have resolved at day 14. The main secondary outcome is the paediatric cough-specific quality of life score. Other outcomes are time to next exacerbation; requirement for hospitalisation; duration of exacerbation; and spirometry data. Descriptive viral and bacteriological data from nasal samples and blood markers will also be reported. Discussion Effective, evidence-based management of exacerbations in people with bronchiectasis is clinically important. Yet, there are few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the neglected area of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. Indeed, no published RCTs addressing the treatment of bronchiectasis exacerbations in children exist. Our multicentre, double-blind RCT is designed to determine if azithromycin and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, compared with placebo, improve symptom resolution on day 14 in children with acute respiratory exacerbations. Our planned assessment of the predictors of antibiotic response, the role of antibiotic-resistant respiratory pathogens, and whether early treatment with antibiotics affects duration and time to the next exacerbation, are also all novel.

Bronchiectasis exacerbation study on azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate for respiratory exacerbations in children (BEST-2) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background Bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis (CF) is being increasingly recognized in children and adults globally, both in resource-poor and in affluent countries. However, high-quality evidence to inform management is scarce. Oral amoxycillin-clavulanate is often the first antibiotic chosen for non-severe respiratory exacerbations, because of the antibiotic-susceptibility patterns detected in the respiratory pathogens commonly associated with bronchiectasis. Azithromycin has a prolonged half-life, and with its unique anti-bacterial, immunomodulatory, and anti-inflammatory properties, presents an attractive alternative. Our proposed study will test the hypothesis that oral azithromycin is non-inferior (within a 20% margin) to amoxycillin-clavulanate at achieving resolution of non-severe respiratory exacerbations by day 21 of treatment in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. Methods This will be a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial involving six Australian and New Zealand centers. In total, 170 eligible children will be stratified by site and bronchiectasis etiology, and randomized (allocation concealed) to receive: 1) azithromycin (5 mg/kg daily) with placebo amoxycillin-clavulanate or 2) amoxycillin-clavulanate (22.5 mg/kg twice daily) with placebo azithromycin for 21 days as treatment for non-severe respiratory exacerbations. Clinical data and a parent-proxy cough-specific quality of life (PC-QOL) score will be obtained at baseline, at the start and resolution of exacerbations, and on day 21. In most children, blood and deep-nasal swabs will also be collected at the same time points. The primary outcome is the proportion of children whose exacerbations have resolved at day 21. The main secondary outcome is the PC-QOL score. Other outcomes are: time to next exacerbation; requirement for hospitalization; duration of exacerbation, and spirometry data. Descriptive viral and bacteriological data from nasal samples and blood inflammatory markers will be reported where available. Discussion Currently, there are no published randomized controlled trials (RCT) to underpin effective, evidence-based management of acute respiratory exacerbations in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. To help address this information gap, we are conducting two RCTs. The first (bronchiectasis exacerbation study; BEST-1) evaluates the efficacy of azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate compared with placebo, and the second RCT (BEST-2), described here, is designed to determine if azithromycin is non-inferior to amoxycillin-clavulanate in achieving symptom resolution by day 21 of treatment in children with acute respiratory exacerbations. Trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR) number ACTRN12612000010897. http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?id=347879

Immunisation coverage in Australian Indigenous children : time to move the goal posts

Childhood immunisation coverage reported at 12 to <15 months and 2 years of age, may mask deficiencies in the timeliness of vaccines designed to protect against diseases in infancy. This study aimed to evaluate immunisation timeliness in Indigenous infants in the Northern Territory, Australia. Coverage was analysed at the date children turned 7, 13 and 18 months of age. By 7 months of age, 45.2% of children had completed the recommended schedule, increasing to 49.5% and 81.2% at 13 and 18 months of age, respectively. Immunisation performance benchmarks must focus on improving the timeliness in these children in the first year of life.

Lower respiratory infections in Australian Indigenous children

Despite Australia being one of the wealthiest countries of the world, Australian Indigenous children have a health status and social circumstance comparable to developing countries. Indigenous infants have 10 times the mortality rate for respiratory conditions. The lower respiratory infection (LRI) rate in Australian Indigenous children is at least as high as that of children in developing countries; the frequency of hospitalisations of Indigenous infants is triple that of non-Indigenous Australian infants (201.7 vs. 62.6/1000, respectively). While Indigenous Australian children have many risk factors for LRIs described in developing countries, there is little specific data, and hence, evidence-based intervention points are yet to be identified. Efficacy of conjugate vaccines for common bacterial causes of pneumonia has been less marked in Indigenous children than that documented overseas. Gaps in the management and prevention of disease are glaring. Given the burden of LRI in Indigenous children and the association with long-term respiratory dysfunction, LRIs should be addressed as a matter of priority.

Does a 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine prevent respiratory exacerbations in children with recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis, chronic suppurative lung disease and bronchiectasis : protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB), chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis are characterised by a chronic wet cough and are important causes of childhood respiratory morbidity globally. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae are the most commonly associated pathogens. As respiratory exacerbations impair quality of life and may be associated with disease progression, we will determine if the novel 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) reduces exacerbations in these children. Methods A multi-centre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in tertiary paediatric centres from three Australian cities is planned. Two hundred six children aged 18 months to 14 years with recurrent PBB, CSLD or bronchiectasis will be randomised to receive either two doses of PHiD-CV or control meningococcal (ACYW(135)) conjugate vaccine 2 months apart and followed for 12 months after the second vaccine dose. Randomisation will be stratified by site, age (<6 years and >= 6 years) and aetiology (recurrent PBB or CSLD/bronchiectasis). Clinical histories, respiratory status (including spirometry in children aged >= 6 years), nasopharyngeal and saliva swabs, and serum will be collected at baseline and at 2, 3, 8 and 14 months post-enrolment. Local and systemic reactions will be recorded on daily diaries for 7 and 30 days, respectively, following each vaccine dose and serious adverse events monitored throughout the trial. Fortnightly, parental contact will help record respiratory exacerbations. The primary outcome is the incidence of respiratory exacerbations in the 12 months following the second vaccine dose. Secondary outcomes include: nasopharyngeal carriage of H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; systemic and mucosal immune responses to H. influenzae proteins and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; impact upon lung function in children aged >= 6 years; and vaccine safety. Discussion As H. influenzae is the most common bacterial pathogen associated with these chronic respiratory diseases in children, a novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that also impacts upon H. influenzae and helps prevent respiratory exacerbations would assist clinical management with potential short- and long-term health benefits. Our study will be the first to assess vaccine efficacy targeting H. influenzae in children with recurrent PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis.

The epidemiology of invasive group A streptococcal disease in Victoria, Australia

Objective To estimate the incidence and severity of invasive group A streptococcal infection in Victoria, Australia. Design Prospective active surveillance study. Setting Public and private laboratories, hospitals and general practitioners throughout Victoria. Patients eople in Victoria diagnosed with group A streptococcal disease notified to the surveillance system between 1 March 2002 and 31 August 2004. Main outcome measure Confirmed invasive group A streptococcal disease. Results We identified 333 confirmed cases: an average annualised incidence rate of 2.7 (95% CI, 2.3-3.2) per 100000 population per year. Rates were highest in people aged 65 years and older and those younger than 5 years. The case-fatality rate was 7.8%. Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome occurred in 48 patients (14.4%), with a case-fatality rate of 23%. Thirty cases of necrotising fasciitis were reported; five (17%) of these patients died. Type 1 (23%) was the most frequently identified emm sequence type in all, age groups. All tested isolates were susceptible to penicillin and clindamycin. Two isolates (4%) were resistant to erythromycin. Conclusion The incidence of invasive group A streptococcal disease in temperate Australia is greater than previously appreciated and warrants greater public health attention, including its designation as a notifiable disease.

Increased risk of hospitalization for acute lower respiratory tract infection among Australian Indigenous infants 5-23 months of age following pneumococcal vaccination : a cohort study

Background Australian Indigenous children are the only population worldwide to receive the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV) at 2, 4, and 6 months of age and the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPV) at 18 months of age. We evaluated this program's effectiveness in reducing the risk of hospitalization for acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI) in Northern Territory (NT) Indigenous children aged 5-23 months. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving all NT Indigenous children born from 1 April 2000 through 31 October 2004. Person-time at-risk after 0, 1, 2, and 3 doses of 7vPCV and after 0 and 1 dose of 23vPPV and the number of ALRI following each dose were used to calculate dose-specific rates of ALRI for children 5-23 months of age. Rates were compared using Cox proportional hazards models, with the number of doses of each vaccine serving as time-dependent covariates. Results There were 5482 children and 8315 child-years at risk, with 2174 episodes of ALRI requiring hospitalization (overall incidence, 261 episodes per 1000 child-years at risk). Elevated risk of ALRI requiring hospitalization was observed after each dose of the 7vPCV vaccine, compared with that for children who received no doses, and an even greater elevation in risk was observed after each dose of the 23vPPV ( adjusted hazard ratio [HR] vs no dose, 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.71;). Risk was highest among children Pp. 002 vaccinated with the 23vPPV who had received < 3 doses of the 7vPCV (adjusted HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.32-2.48). Conclusions Our results suggest an increased risk of ALRI requiring hospitalization after pneumococcal vaccination, particularly after receipt of the 23vPPV booster. The use of the 23vPPV booster should be reevaluated.

Lung health care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Queenslanders : breathing easy is not so easy

Objectives In Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Queensland, to (a) determine the disease burden of common chronic lung diseases and (b) identify areas of need with respect to lung health services. Methods Literature reviews and analyses of hospitalisation and mortality data were used to describe disease epidemiology and available programs and services. Key stakeholder interviews and an online survey of health professionals were used to evaluate lung health services across the state and to identify services, needs and gaps. Results Morbidity and mortality from respiratory diseases in the Indigenous population is substantially higher than the non-Indigenous population across all age groups and regions. There are inadequate clinical services and resources to address disease prevention, detection, intervention and management in an evidence-based and culturally acceptable fashion. There is a lack of culturally appropriate educational resources and management programs, insufficient access to appropriately engaged Indigenous health professionals, a lack of multi-disciplinary specialist outreach teams, fragmented information systems and inadequate coordination of care. Conclusions Major initiatives are required at all levels of the healthcare system to adequately address service provision for Indigenous Queenslanders with lung diseases, including high quality research to investigate the causes for poor lung health, which are likely to be multifactorial.

Rates of radiologically confirmed pneumonia as defined by the World Health Organization in Northern Territory Indigenous children

Objective To determine the burden of hospitalised, radiologically confirmed pneumonia (World Health Organization protocol) in Northern Territory Indigenous children. Design, setting and participants Historical, observational study of all hospital admissions for any diagnosis of NT resident Indigenous children, aged between >= 29 days and < 5 years, 1 April 1997 to 31 March 2005. Intervention All chest radiographs taken during these admissions, regardless of diagnosis, were assessed for pneumonia in accordance with the WHO protocol. Main outcome measure The primary outcome was endpoint consolidation (dense fluffy consolidation [alveolar infiltrate] of a portion of a lobe or the entire lung) present on a chest radiograph within 3 days of hospitalisation. Results We analysed data on 24 115 hospitalised episodes of care for 9492 children and 13 683 chest radiographs. The average annual cumulative incidence of endpoint consolidation was 26.6 per 1000 population per year (95% Cl, 25.3-27.9); 57.5 per 1000 per year in infants aged 1-11 months, 38.3 per 1000 per year in those aged 12-23 months, and 13.3 per 1000 per year in those aged 24-59 months. In all age groups, rates of endpoint consolidation in children in the arid southern region of NT were about twice that of children in the tropical northern region. Conclusion The rates of severe pneumonia in hospitalised NT Indigenous children are among the highest reported in the world. Reducing this unacceptable burden of disease should be a national health priority.

Hospitalisation of Indigenous children in the Northern Territory for lower respiratory illness in the first year of life

Objective To describe the epidemiology of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) and bronchiectasis in Northern Territory Indigenous infants hospitalised in the first year of life. Design A historical cohort study constructed from the NT Hospital Discharge Dataset and the NT Imm(u)nisation Register. Participants and setting All NT resident Indigenous infants, born 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004, admitted to NT public hospitals and followed up to 12 months of age. Main outcome measures Incidence of ALRI and bronchiectasis (ICD-10-AM codes) and radiologically confirmed pneumonia (World Health Organization protocol). Results Data on 9295 infants, 8498 child-years of observation and 15 948 hospitalised episodes of care were analysed. ALRI incidence was 426.7 episodes per 1000 child-years (95% Cl, 416.2-437.2). Incidence rates were two times higher (relative risk, 2.12; 95% Cl, 1.98-2.27) for infants in Central Australia compared with those in the Top End. The median age at first admission for an ALRI was 4.6 months (interquartile range, 2.6-7.3). Bronchiolitis accounted for most of the disease burden, with a rate of 227 per 1000 child-years. The incidence of first diagnosis of bronchiectasis was 1.18 per 1000 child-years (95% Cl, 0.60-2.16). One or more key comorbidities were present in 1445 of the 3227 (44.8%) episodes of care for ALRI. Conclusions Rates of ALRI and bronchiectasis in NT Indigenous infants are excessive, with early onset, frequent repeat episodes, and a high prevalence of comorbidities. These high rates of disease demand urgent attention.

Successful application of a simple specimen transport method for the conduct of respiratory virus surveillance in remote Indigenous communities in Australia

Objective Surveillance programs and research for acute respiratory infections in remote Aboriginal communities are complicated by difficulties in the storage and transport of frozen samples to urban laboratories for testing. This study assessed the sensitivity of a simple method for transporting respiratory samples from a remote setting for viral PCR compared with frozen specimens. Methods We sampled every individual who presented to a remote Aboriginal community clinic in a non-epidemic respiratory season. Two anterior nasal swabs were collected from each participant. The left nare specimen was mailed to the laboratory via routine postal services. The right nare specimen was transported frozen. Testing for 16 viruses was undertaken using real-time multiplex PCR. Results A total of 140 participants were enrolled who contributed 150 study visits. Respiratory illnesses accounted for 10% of the reasons for presentation. Sixty-one viruses were identified in 50 (33.3%) presentations for 40 (28.6%) individuals; bocavirus and rhinovirus were the most common viruses identified (14.0% and 12.6% of episodes respectively). The sensitivity for any virus detected in mailed specimens was 67.2% (95%CI 55.4, 78.9) compared to 65.6% (95%CI 53.7, 77.5) for frozen specimens. Conclusion The mailing of unfrozen nasal specimens from remote communities does not compromise the viability of the specimen for viral studies.

Identification of radiological alveolar pneumonia in children with high rates of hospitalized respiratory infections : Comparison of WHO-defined and pediatric pulmonologist diagnosis in the clinical context

Background A reliable standardized diagnosis of pneumonia in children has long been difficult to achieve. Clinical and radiological criteria have been developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), however, their generalizability to different populations is uncertain. We evaluated WHO defined chest radiograph (CXRs) confirmed alveolar pneumonia in the clinical context in Central Australian Aboriginal children, a high risk population, hospitalized with acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI). Methods CXRs in children (aged 1-60 months) hospitalized and treated with intravenous antibiotics for ALRI and enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Vitamin A/Zinc supplementation were matched with data collected during a population-based study of WHO-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (WHO-EPC). These CXRs were reread by a pediatric pulmonologist (PP) and classified as pneumonia-PP when alveolar changes were present. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for clinical presentations were compared between WHO-EPC and pneumonia-PP. Results Of the 147 episodes of hospitalized ALRI, WHO-EPC was significantly less commonly diagnosed in 40 (27.2%) compared to pneumonia-PP (difference 20.4%, 95% CI 9.6-31.2, P < 0.001). Clinical signs on admission were poor predictors for both pneumonia-PP and WHO-EPC; the sensitivities of clinical signs ranged from a high of 45% for tachypnea to 5% for fever + tachypnea + chest-indrawing. The PPV range was 40-20%, respectively. Higher PPVs were observed against the pediatric pulmonologist's diagnosis compared to WHO-EPC. Conclusions WHO-EPC underestimates alveolar consolidation in a clinical context. Its use in clinical practice or in research designed to inform clinical management in this population should be avoided. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2012; 47:386-392. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effectiveness of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against radiologically diagnosed pneumonia in indigenous infants in Australia

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in preventing pneumonia, diagnosed radiologically according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, among indigenous infants in the Northern Territory of Australia. Methods We conducted a historical cohort study of consecutive indigenous birth cohorts between 1 April 1998 and 28 February 2005. Children were followed up to 18 months of age. The PCV7 programme commenced on 1 June 2001. All chest X-rays taken within 3 days of any hospitalization were assessed. The primary endpoint was a first episode of WHO-defined pneumonia requiring hospitalization. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare disease incidence. Findings There were 526 pneumonia events among 10 600 children - an incidence of 3.3 per 1000 child-months; 183 episodes (34.8%) occurred before 5 months of age and 247 (47.0%) by 7 months. Of the children studied, 27% had received 3 doses of vaccine by 7 months of age. Hazard ratios for endpoint pneumonia were 1.01 for 1 versus 0 doses; 1.03 for 2 versus 0 doses; and 0.84 for 3 versus 0 doses. Conclusion There was limited evidence that PCV7 reduced the incidence of radiologically confirmed pneumonia among Northern Territory indigenous infants, although there was a non-significant trend towards an effect after receipt of the third dose. These findings might be explained by lack of timely vaccination and/or occurrence of disease at an early age. Additionally, the relative contribution of vaccine-type pneumococcus to severe pneumonia in a setting where multiple other pathogens are prevalent may differ with respect to other settings where vaccine efficacy has been clearly established.