Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Recursive contracts

We obtain a recursive formulation for a general class of contractingproblems involving incentive constraints. Under these constraints,the corresponding maximization (sup) problems fails to have arecursive solution. Our approach consists of studying the Lagrangian.We show that, under standard assumptions, the solution to theLagrangian is characterized by a recursive saddle point (infsup)functional equation, analogous to Bellman's equation. Our approachapplies to a large class of contractual problems. As examples, westudy the optimal policy in a model with intertemporal participationconstraints (which arise in models of default) and intertemporalcompetitive constraints (which arise in Ramsey equilibria).

Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model

Most central banks perceive a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade-off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of non trivial real imperfections.We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation-unemployment relation found in the data.

The macroeconomic effects of German unification: Real adjustments and the welfare state

We study the effects of German unification in a model with capital accumulation, skill differences and a welfare state. We argue that this event is similar to a mass migration of low-skilled agents holding no capital into a foreign country. Absent a welfare state, we observe an investment boom, depressed output and employment conditions. Capital owners and high-skilled agents are willing to give up to 4% of per-capita consumption to favor unification. When a welfare state exists the investment boom disappears and the recession is prolonged. Now, with unification, capital owners and high-skilled agents lose 4% of per-capita consumption.

Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP

The well-known lack of power of unit root tests has often been attributed to the shortlength of macroeconomic variables and also to DGP s that depart from the I(1)-I(0)alternatives. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real GNP and GNPper capita (133 years) high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both theunit root and the trend-stationary hypothesis. This suggests that possibly neither modelprovides a good characterization of these data. Next, more flexible representations areconsidered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional ordersof integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP isprovided. It is shown that the latter models (FI and SB) are in general preferred to theARIMA (I(1) or I(0)) ones. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are appliedto discriminate between FI and SB models. It turns out that the FI specification ispreferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non-stationary, highly persistentbut mean-reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaksin the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomicimplications of these findings are also discussed.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

2008 Iowa Real Property Appraisal Manual, May 2008

********NOTE: There are nine sections to this manual, all in separate files.************* **********NOTE: Large files may take longer to open******** The basis of real property assessment in Iowa is market value as defined in Iowa Code §441.21. Iowa Code §§ 421.17(17) and 441.21(h) provide that assessment jurisdictions follow the guidelines and rules in this manual to help achieve uniformity in assessments. Assessors are encouraged to use the International Association of Assessing Officers’ Standard on Mass Appraisal of Real Property in their mass appraisal practices. Estimating market value in mass appraisal involves accurately listing properties, developing a sales file that includes the primary influences on market value, and developing models for subsets of properties that share common market influences using recognized mass appraisal techniques. The assessment of an individual property should not be based solely on the sale price. The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) standard 6 says “In developing a mass appraisal, an appraiser must be aware of, understand, and correctly employ those recognized methods and techniques necessary to produce and communicate credible mass appraisals.” Accurate listing of property is the basis of a good mass appraisal program. On-site inspection and listing of property is essential in developing a good data base for revaluation. A physical review, including an on-site verification of property characteristics, should be conducted at least every four to six years. Land values should be reviewed every two years. Factors influencing the market of each property type should be identified and collected so that these factors can be considered in the mass appraisal model. It is equally important to maintain the data once it is collected. Accessing local government permit systems should be a part of a good data maintenance program along with an inspection program. Current cadastral maps and geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that are integral in checking accuracy of listings and maintaining a comprehensive data base.

Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

On p-beauty contest integer games

In this paper we provide a full characterization of the pure-strategyNash Equilibria for the p-Beauty Contest Game when we restrict player schoices to integer numbers. Opposed to the case of real number choices,equilibrium uniqueness may be lost depending on the value of p and thenumber of players: in particular, as p approaches 1 any symmetric profileconstitutes a Nash Equilibrium. We also show that any experimental p-BeautyContest Game can be associated to a game with the integer restriction andthus multiplicity of equilibria becomes an issue. Finally, we show thatin these games the iterated deletion of weakly dominated strategies maynot lead to a single outcome while the iterated best-reply process alwaysdoes (though the outcome obtained depends on the initial conditions).

Falling real wages during an industrial revolution

The Industrial Revolution was characterized by technologicalprogress and an increasing capital intensity. Why did real wages stagnateor fall in the beginning? I answer this question by modeling the IndustrialRevolution as the introduction of a relatively more capital intensiveproduction method in a standard neoclassical framework. I show that{\sl real wages fall in the beginning of an industrial revolution if andonly if technological progress in the relatively more capital intensivesector is relatively fast.}

Uso de Tecnologias no Estudo de Funções Reais de Variável Real

Este trabalho aborda uma reflexão teórica de alguns autores sobre a inserção das tecnologias na educação, reflectindo sobre as mudanças que ocorrerão no papel dos vários elementos inseridos na comunidade educativa, realçando o trabalho do professor e o seu novo papel na sociedade da informação. O professor de matemática assim como os outros tem muitos desafios nessa nova era, principalmente porque a matemática é uma disciplina vista com maus olhos por muitos alunos e com as tecnologias talvez possa mudar essa percepção. Faz-se uma abordagem dos diferentes softwares educativos e as calculadoras gráficas, demonstrando as mais valias que trazem a educação e como o professor pode explorar esses softwares, de modo a levar seus alunos a construir o conhecimento e a sentirem-se motivados com o uso de tecnologias nas salas de aulas. No trabalho é feito uma breve análise histórica do conceito de função, pode-se constatar que as funções foram idealizadas desde os primórdios com o trabalho e a contribuição de muitos autores durante vários séculos, chegou-- se a uma definição que é usado até hoje e pode-se então realizar um estudo mais eficaz das várias funções existentes utilizando os conceitos de limites, continuidade e derivadas, que ajudam a resolver vários problemas reais do dia a dia. Analisa-se vários softwares que podem ser utilizados no estudo de funções e que podem ser aplicados nas salas de aulas, exemplo: Graphmática, Winplot, Estudo de Funções, Trigonometria e calculadoras gráficas, onde se realiza o estudo de alguns problemas dando assim uma ideia de como podem ser utilizados nas aulas de matemática. Foi realizado um estudo estatístico no 3º ciclo das escolas secundárias de S.Vicente com o intuito de saber se as tecnologias são utilizadas nas aulas de matemática, como os alunos e os professores se sentem ao utilizarem as tecnologias e se há uma relação entre usar as tecnologias e estar motivado.

Horizontal and vertical distributions of zooplanckton numbers and biomass off the coast of Peru

Estudio de las distribuciones horizontales y verticales del zooplancton a lo largo de una línea desde cerca de la costa hasta el borde de la plataforma.

Asset prices and the measurement of wealth and saving

The paper defines concepts of real wealth and saving which take into account the intertemporal index number problem that results from changing interest rates. Unlike conventional measures of real wealth, which are based on the market value of assets and ignore the index number problem, the new measure correctly reflects the changes in the welfare of households over time. An empirically operational approximation to the theoretical measure is provided and applied to US data. A major empirical finding is that US real financial wealth increased strongly in the 1980s, much more than is revealed by the market value of assets.

The size and distribution of donations: Effects of numbers of potential recipients

Whereas much literature exists on choice overload, little is known about effects of numbers of alternatives in donation decisions. How do these affect both the size and distribution of donations? We hypothesize that donations are affected by the reputation of recipients and increase with their number, albeit at a decreasing rate. Allocations to recipients reflect different concepts of fairness equity and equality. Both may be employed but, since they differ in cognitive and emotional costs, numbers of recipients are important. Using a cognitive (emotional) argument, distributions become more uniform (skewed) as numbers increase. In a survey, respondents indicated how they would donate lottery winnings of 50 Euros. Results indicated that more was donated to NGO s that respondents knew better. Second, total donations increased with the number of recipients albeit at a decreasing rate. Third, distributions of donations became more skewed as numbers increased. We comment on theoretical and practical implications.