946 resultados para Random regression models


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We assessed the impact of antiviral prophylaxis and preemptive therapy on the incidence and outcomes of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in a nationwide prospective cohort of solid organ transplant recipients. Risk factors associated with CMV disease and graft failure-free survival were analyzed using Cox regression models. One thousand two hundred thirty-nine patients transplanted from May 2008 until March 2011 were included; 466 (38%) patients received CMV prophylaxis and 522 (42%) patients were managed preemptively. Overall incidence of CMV disease was 6.05% and was linked to CMV serostatus (D+/R- vs. R+, hazard ratio [HR] 5.36 [95% CI 3.14-9.14], pâeuro0/00<âeuro0/000.001). No difference in the incidence of CMV disease was observed in patients receiving antiviral prophylaxis as compared to the preemptive approach (HR 1.16 [95% CI 0.63-2.17], pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.63). CMV disease was not associated with a lower graft failure-free survival (HR 1.27 [95% CI 0.64-2.53], pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.50). Nevertheless, patients followed by the preemptive approach had an inferior graft failure-free survival after a median of 1.05 years of follow-up (HR 1.63 [95% CI 1.01-2.64], pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.044). The incidence of CMV disease in this cohort was low and not influenced by the preventive strategy used. However, patients on CMV prophylaxis were more likely to be free from graft failure.

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Background:Besides tobacco and alcohol, dietary habits may have a relevant role in oral cavity and pharyngeal (OCP) cancer.Methods:We analysed the role of selected food groups and nutrients on OCP cancer in a case-control study carried out between 1997 and 2009 in Italy and Switzerland. This included 768 incident, histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma cases and 2078 hospital controls. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression models including terms for tobacco, alcohol and other relevant covariates.Results:Significant inverse trends in risk were observed for all vegetables (OR=0.19, for the highest vs the lowest consumption) and all fruits (OR=0.39), whereas significant direct associations were found for milk and dairy products (OR=1.50), eggs (OR=1.71), red meat (OR=1.55), potatoes (OR=1.85) and desserts (OR=1.68), although trends in risk were significant only for potatoes and desserts. With reference to nutrients, significant inverse relations were observed for vegetable protein (OR=0.45, for the highest vs the lowest quintile), vegetable fat (OR=0.54), polyunsaturated fatty acids (OR=0.53), α-carotene (OR=0.51), β-carotene (OR=0.28), β-cryptoxanthin (OR=0.37), lutein and zeazanthin (OR=0.34), vitamin E (OR=0.26), vitamin C (OR=0.40) and total folate (OR=0.34), whereas direct ones were observed for animal protein (OR=1.57), animal fat (OR=2.47), saturated fatty acids (OR=2.18), cholesterol (OR=2.29) and retinol (OR=1.88). Combinations of low consumption of fruits and vegetables, and high consumption of meat with high tobacco and alcohol, led to 10- to over 20-fold excess risk of OCP cancer.Conclusion:Our study confirms and further quantifies that a diet rich in fruits and vegetables and poor in meat and products of animal origin has a favourable role against OCP cancer.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies have postulated that poststroke depression (PSD) might be related to cumulative vascular brain pathology rather than to the location and severity of a single macroinfarct. We performed a detailed analysis of all types of microvascular lesions and lacunes in 41 prospectively documented and consecutively autopsied stroke cases. METHODS: Only cases with first-onset depression <2 years after stroke were considered as PSD in the present series. Diagnosis of depression was established prospectively using DSM-IV criteria for major depression. Neuropathological evaluation included bilateral semiquantitative assessment of microvascular ischemic pathology and lacunes; statistical analysis included Fisher exact test, Mann-Whitney U test, and regression models. RESULTS: Macroinfarct site was not related to the occurrence of PSD for any of the locations studied. Thalamic and basal ganglia lacunes occurred significantly more often in PSD cases. Higher lacune scores in basal ganglia, thalamus, and deep white matter were associated with an increased PSD risk. In contrast, microinfarct and diffuse or periventricular demyelination scores were not increased in PSD. The combined lacune score (thalamic plus basal ganglia plus deep white matter) explained 25% of the variability of PSD occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative vascular burden resulting from chronic accumulation of lacunar infarcts within the thalamus, basal ganglia, and deep white matter may be more important than single infarcts in the prediction of PSD.

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Mature T cells comprise two mutually exclusive lineages expressing heterodimeric alpha beta or gamma delta antigen receptors. During development, beta, gamma, and delta genes rearrange before alpha, and mature gamma delta cells arise in the thymus prior to alpha beta cells. The mechanism underlying commitment of immature T cells to the alpha beta or gamma delta lineage is controversial. Since the delta locus is located within the alpha locus, rearrangement of alpha genes leads to deletion of delta. We have examined the rearrangement status of the delta locus immediately prior to alpha rearrangement. We find that many thymic precursors of alpha beta cells undergo VDJ delta rearrangements. Furthermore, the same cells frequently coexpress sterile T early alpha (TEA) transcripts originating 3' of C delta and 5' of the most upstream J alpha, thus implying that individual alpha beta lineage cells undergo sequential VDJ delta and VJ alpha rearrangements. Finally, VDJ delta rearrangements in immature alpha beta cells appear to be random, supporting models in which alpha beta lineage commitment is determined independently of the rearrangement status at the TCR delta locus.

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This study aimed to test subjective indicators designed to analyze the role food plays in children’s lives, explore children’s personal well-being, and evaluate the relationship between these two phenomena. It was conducted on 371 children aged 10 to 12 by means of a selfadministered questionnaire. Results showed a marked interest in food on the part of children, who consider taste and health the most important indicators when it comes to eating. They demonstrated a high level of personal well-being, measured using Cummins & Lau’s adapted version of the Personal Well- Being Index–School Children (PWI-SC) (2005), overall life satisfaction (OLS) and satisfaction with various life domains (friends, family, sports, food and body). Regression models were conducted to explain satisfaction with food, taking as independent variables the interest children have in food, the importance they give to different reasons for eating, scores from the PWI-SC, OLS and satisfaction with various life domains. In the final model, it was found that OLS, health indicators, satisfaction with health from the PWI-SC and satisfaction with your body contribute to explaining satisfaction with food. The results obtained suggest that satisfaction with food is a relevant indicator in the exploration of children’s subjective well-being, calling into question the widespread belief that these aspects are of exclusive interest to adults. They also seem to reinforce the importance of including food indicators in any study aimed at exploring the well-being of the 10 to 12 year-old population.

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BACKGROUND: The risk of many cancers is higher in subjects with a family history (FH) of cancer at a concordant site. However, few studies investigated FH of cancer at discordant sites. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study is based on a network of Italian and Swiss case-control studies on 13 cancer sites conducted between 1991 and 2009, and including more than 12 000 cases and 11 000 controls. We collected information on history of any cancer in first degree relatives, and age at diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) for FH were calculated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major confounding factors. RESULTS: All sites showed an excess risk in relation to FH of cancer at the same site. Increased risks were also found for oral and pharyngeal cancer and FH of laryngeal cancer (OR = 3.3), esophageal cancer and FH of oral and pharyngeal cancer (OR = 4.1), breast cancer and FH of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.5) and of hemolymphopoietic cancers (OR = 1.7), ovarian cancer and FH of breast cancer (OR = 2.3), and prostate cancer and FH of bladder cancer (OR = 3.4). For most cancer sites, the association with FH was stronger when the proband was affected at age <60 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to several potential cancer syndromes that appear among close relatives and may indicate the presence of genetic factors influencing multiple cancer sites.

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BACKGROUND: Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures conflict. PURPOSE: To assess the risk for hip and nonspine fractures associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction among prospective cohorts. DATA SOURCES: Search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (1946 to 16 March 2014) and reference lists of retrieved articles without language restriction. STUDY SELECTION: Two physicians screened and identified prospective cohorts that measured thyroid function and followed participants to assess fracture outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION: One reviewer extracted data using a standardized protocol, and another verified data. Both reviewers independently assessed methodological quality of the studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: The 7 population-based cohorts of heterogeneous quality included 50,245 participants with 1966 hip and 3281 nonspine fractures. In random-effects models that included the 5 higher-quality studies, the pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism versus euthyrodism were 1.38 (95% CI, 0.92 to 2.07) for hip fractures and 1.20 (CI, 0.83 to 1.72) for nonspine fractures without statistical heterogeneity (P = 0.82 and 0.52, respectively; I2= 0%). Pooled estimates for the 7 cohorts were 1.26 (CI, 0.96 to 1.65) for hip fractures and 1.16 (CI, 0.95 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures. When thyroxine recipients were excluded, the HRs for participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism were 2.16 (CI, 0.87 to 5.37) for hip fractures and 1.43 (CI, 0.73 to 2.78) for nonspine fractures. For participants with subclinical hypothyroidism, HRs from higher-quality studies were 1.12 (CI, 0.83 to 1.51) for hip fractures and 1.04 (CI, 0.76 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures (P for heterogeneity = 0.69 and 0.88, respectively; I2 = 0%). LIMITATIONS: Selective reporting cannot be excluded. Adjustment for potential common confounders varied and was not adequately done across all studies. CONCLUSION: Subclinical hyperthyroidism might be associated with an increased risk for hip and nonspine fractures, but additional large, high-quality studies are needed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swiss National Science Foundation.

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Gene-lifestyle interactions have been suggested to contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes. Glucose levels 2 h after a standard 75-g glucose challenge are used to diagnose diabetes and are associated with both genetic and lifestyle factors. However, whether these factors interact to determine 2-h glucose levels is unknown. We meta-analyzed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) × BMI and SNP × physical activity (PA) interaction regression models for five SNPs previously associated with 2-h glucose levels from up to 22 studies comprising 54,884 individuals without diabetes. PA levels were dichotomized, with individuals below the first quintile classified as inactive (20%) and the remainder as active (80%). BMI was considered a continuous trait. Inactive individuals had higher 2-h glucose levels than active individuals (β = 0.22 mmol/L [95% CI 0.13-0.31], P = 1.63 × 10(-6)). All SNPs were associated with 2-h glucose (β = 0.06-0.12 mmol/allele, P ≤ 1.53 × 10(-7)), but no significant interactions were found with PA (P > 0.18) or BMI (P ≥ 0.04). In this large study of gene-lifestyle interaction, we observed no interactions between genetic and lifestyle factors, both of which were associated with 2-h glucose. It is perhaps unlikely that top loci from genome-wide association studies will exhibit strong subgroup-specific effects, and may not, therefore, make the best candidates for the study of interactions.

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Background: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in Crohnʼs disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are scarce. Goal: to evaluate prevalences, forms of EIM and risk factors in a large nationwide IBD cohort. Methods: Data from validated physician enrolment questionnaires of the adult Swiss IBD cohort were analyzed. Logistic regression models were used to identify EIM risk factors. Results: 950 patients were included, 580 (61%) with CD (mean age 43yrs) and 370 (39%) with UC (mean age 49yrs), of these, 249 (43%) of CD and 113 (31%) of UC patients had one to 5 EIM. The following EIM were found: arthritis (CD 33%, UC 21%), aphthous stomatitis (CD 10%, UC 4%), uveitis (CD 6%, UC 4%), erythema nodosum (CD 6%, UC 3%), ankylosing spondylitis (CD 6%, UC 2%), psoriasis (CD 2%, UC 1%), pyoderma gangrenosum (CD and UC each 2%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (CD 1%, UC 4%). Logistic regression in CD identified the following items as risk factors for ongoing EIM: active disease (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.23, P=0.01), positive IBD family history (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.07-2.92, P=0.025). No risk factors were identified in UC patients. Conclusions: EIM are a frequent problem in CD and UC patients. Active disease and positive IBD family history are associated with ongoing EIM in CD patients. Identification of EIM prevalence and associated risk factors may result in increased awareness for this problem and thereby facilitate their diagnosis and management.

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BACKGROUND: In animal farming, respiratory disease has been associated with indoor air contaminants and an excess in FEV1 decline. Our aim was to determine the characteristics and risk factors for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in never-smoking European farmers working inside animal confinement buildings. METHODS: A sample of participants in the European Farmers' Study was selected for a cross-sectional study assessing lung function and air contaminants. Dose-response relationships were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: COPD was found in 18 of 105 farmers (45.1 SD 11.7 years) (17.1%); 8 cases (7.6%) with moderate and 3 cases (2.9%) with severe disease. Dust and endotoxin showed a dose-response relationship with COPD, with the highest prevalence of COPD in subjects with high dust (low=7.9%/high=31.6%) and endotoxin exposure (low=10.5%/high=20.0%). This association was statistically significant for dust in the multivariate analysis (OR 6.60, 95% CI 1.10-39.54). CONCLUSION: COPD in never-smoking animal farmers working inside confinement buildings is related to indoor dust exposure and may become severe. [Authors]

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Background: Little is known on the relative importance of growth at different periods between birth and adolescence on blood pressure (BP). Objective: To assess the association between birth weight, change in body weight (growth) and BP across the entire span of childhood and adolescence. Methods: School-based surveys were conducted annually between 1998 and 2006 among all children in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th, and 10th year of compulsory school) in the Seychelles, Indian Ocean. Height and weight and BP were measured. Three cohorts of children examined twice were analyzed: 1606 children surveyed at age 5.5 and 9.1, 2557 at age 9.2 and 12.5, and 2065 at age 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Weights at birth and at one year were extracted from medical files. Weights were expressed as Z-scores and growth was defined as a change in weight Z-scores (corresponding to weight centile crossing). The association between BP (at age 5.5, 9.2, 12.5, and 15.5) and weight at different times was assessed by linear regression. Using results of regression models of BP on all successive weights, life course plots were drawn by plotting regression coefficients against age at which weight was measured. The figure shows a life course plot of systolic BP in boys aged 15.5. Results: Without adjustment for current weight (at the time of BP measurement), birth weight was not associated with current BP, irrespective of age, excepted for girls at age 15.5 for whom a modest positive association was found. When adjusted for current weight, birth weight was negatively and modestly associated with current BP. BP was strongly associated with current weight, irrespective of age. Life course plots showed that BP was strongly associated with growth during the few preceding years but not with growth during earlier years, except for growth during the first year of life which tended to be associated with systolic BP. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that BP during childhood and adolescence is mainly determined by current body weight and recent growth.

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Embankment subgrade soils in Iowa are generally rated as fair to poor as construction materials. These soils can exhibit low bearing strength, high volumetric instability, and freeze/thaw or wet/dry durability problems. Cement stabilization offers opportunities to improve these soils conditions. The objective of this study was to develop relationships between soil index properties, unconfined compressive strength and cement content. To achieve this objective, a laboratory study was conducted on 28 granular and non-granular materials obtained from 9 active construction sites in Iowa. The materials consisted of glacial till, loess, and alluvium sand. Type I/II portland cement was used for stabilization. Stabilized and unstabilized specimens were prepared using Iowa State University 2 in. by 2 in. compaction apparatus. Specimens were prepared, cured, and tested for unconfined compressive strength (UCS) with and without vacuum saturation. Percent fines content (F200), AASHTO group index (GI), and Atterberg limits were tested before and after stabilization. The results were analyzed using multi-variate statistical analysis to assess influence of the various soil index properties on post-stabilization material properties. Results indicated that F200, liquid limit, plasticity index, and GI of the materials generally decreased with increasing cement content. The UCS of the stabilized specimens increased with increasing cement content, as expected. The average saturated UCS of the unstabilized materials varied between 0 and 57 psi. The average saturated UCS of stabilized materials varied between 44 and 287 psi at 4% cement content, 108 and 528 psi at t 8% cement content, and 162 and 709 psi at 12% cement content. The UCS of the vacuum saturated specimens was on average 1.5 times lower than that of the unsaturated specimens. Multi-variate statistical regression models are provided in this report to predict F200, plasticity index, GI, and UCS after treatment, as a function of cement content and soil index properties.

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BACKGROUND: Antitumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) treatments may reactivate latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). For detecting LTBI, the tuberculin skin test (TST) has low sensitivity and specificity. Interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) have been shown to be more sensitive and specific than TST. OBJECTIVE: To compare the TST and the T-SPOT.TB IGRA for identifying LTBI in patients with psoriasis before anti-TNF treatment. METHODS: A retrospective study was carried out over a 4-year period on patients with psoriasis requiring anti-TNF treatment. All were subjected to the TST, T-SPOT.TB and chest X-ray. Risk factors for LTBI and history of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination were recorded. The association of T-SPOT.TB and TST results with risk factors for LTBI was tested through univariate logistic regression models. Agreement between tests was quantified using kappa statistics. Treatment for LTBI was started 1 month before anti-TNF therapy when indicated. RESULTS: Fifty patients were included; 90% had prior BCG vaccination. A positive T-SPOT.TB was strongly associated with a presumptive diagnosis of LTBI (odds ratio 7.43; 95% confidence interval 1.38-39.9), which was not the case for the TST. Agreement between the T-SPOT.TB and TST was poor, kappa = 0.33 (SD 0.13). LTBI was detected and treated in 20% of the patients. In 20% of the cases, LTBI was not retained in spite of a positive TST but a negative T-SPOT.TB. All patients received an anti-TNF agent for a median of 56 weeks (range 20-188); among patients with a positive TST/negative T-SPOT.TB, no tuberculosis was detected with a median follow-up of 64 weeks (44-188). One case of disseminated tuberculosis occurred after 28 weeks of adalimumab treatment in a patient with LTBI in spite of treatment with rifampicin. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to underline the frequency of LTBI in patients with psoriasis (20%), and to support the use of IGRA instead of the TST for its detection. Nevertheless, there is still a risk of tuberculosis under anti-TNF therapy, even if LTBI is correctly diagnosed and treated.

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The final year project came to us as an opportunity to get involved in a topic which has appeared to be attractive during the learning process of majoring in economics: statistics and its application to the analysis of economic data, i.e. econometrics.Moreover, the combination of econometrics and computer science is a very hot topic nowadays, given the Information Technologies boom in the last decades and the consequent exponential increase in the amount of data collected and stored day by day. Data analysts able to deal with Big Data and to find useful results from it are verydemanded in these days and, according to our understanding, the work they do, although sometimes controversial in terms of ethics, is a clear source of value added both for private corporations and the public sector. For these reasons, the essence of this project is the study of a statistical instrument valid for the analysis of large datasets which is directly related to computer science: Partial Correlation Networks.The structure of the project has been determined by our objectives through the development of it. At first, the characteristics of the studied instrument are explained, from the basic ideas up to the features of the model behind it, with the final goal of presenting SPACE model as a tool for estimating interconnections in between elements in large data sets. Afterwards, an illustrated simulation is performed in order to show the power and efficiency of the model presented. And at last, the model is put into practice by analyzing a relatively large data set of real world data, with the objective of assessing whether the proposed statistical instrument is valid and useful when applied to a real multivariate time series. In short, our main goals are to present the model and evaluate if Partial Correlation Network Analysis is an effective, useful instrument and allows finding valuable results from Big Data.As a result, the findings all along this project suggest the Partial Correlation Estimation by Joint Sparse Regression Models approach presented by Peng et al. (2009) to work well under the assumption of sparsity of data. Moreover, partial correlation networks are shown to be a very valid tool to represent cross-sectional interconnections in between elements in large data sets.The scope of this project is however limited, as there are some sections in which deeper analysis would have been appropriate. Considering intertemporal connections in between elements, the choice of the tuning parameter lambda, or a deeper analysis of the results in the real data application are examples of aspects in which this project could be completed.To sum up, the analyzed statistical tool has been proved to be a very useful instrument to find relationships that connect the elements present in a large data set. And after all, partial correlation networks allow the owner of this set to observe and analyze the existing linkages that could have been omitted otherwise.

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Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a change in the type of patients most often affected by influenza was observed. The objective of this study was to assess the role of individual and social determinants in hospitalizations due to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods We studied hospitalized patients (cases) and outpatients (controls) with confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data. Variables that might be related to the hospitalization of influenza cases were compared by estimation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the variables entered into binomial logistic regression models. Results Hospitalization due to pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections was associated with non-Caucasian ethnicity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.17 − 4.08), overcrowding (OR: 2.84, 95% CI 1.20 − 6.72), comorbidity and the lack of previous preventive information (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.50 − 4.83). Secondary or higher education was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.36 − 0.87) Conclusions In addition to individual factors such as comorbidity, other factors such as educational level, ethnicity or overcrowding were associated with hospitalization due to A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections.