982 resultados para Probability Distribution
Resumo:
Trichostome ciliates are associated with many different lineages of herbivorous mammals but there are few comparative studies of these associations in each lineage of herbivores. Here the occurrence of the ciliate fauna in a range of herbivorous marsupials (diprotodonts) is investigated and compared with that of ruminants. A total of 371 potential host animals, representing 33 species and 7 families, were examined for the presence of ciliates. The prevalence of endocommensal ciliates within individual host species varied between 0 and 100%. Of the different dietary groups of marsupials examined, only foregut (macropodids) and hindgut (vombatids) fermentative herbivores were found to harbour ciliates; carnivorous (dasyurids), omnivorous (peramelids) and midgut fermenting herbivores (phalangeroids) all lacked ciliates. The majority of ciliate species were oioxenic, several occurred in closely related hosts and some were able to colonise unnatural hosts in captive populations. Ciliate prevalences were found to vary at all levels: between hosts of different species, between conspecific hosts collected at different localities or seasons and between conspecific hosts at one collecting locality. The faunal composition of the 2 marsupial families which harboured ciliates differed greatly: the vombatid fauna was composed exclusively of amylovoracids whereas the macropodids harboured amylovoracids, polycostids and macropodiniids. In comparison to the ciliate fauna of ruminants, the fauna of macropodids is both depauperate and much more host specific. Low species richness in each host may be due to the large numbers of stomach nematodes in macropodids which compete with and may prey upon the ciliates within the stomach. The high levels of host specificity are probably due to different patterns of ciliate transmission in macropodids as they do not ruminate, eructate or feed indiscriminantly on pasture contaminated with saliva containing ciliates.
Resumo:
Variation in the concentration of virus in different parts of the plant has implications for virus-indexing programs. To allow more reliable detection of Sugarcane mosaic virus (SCMV), the distribution of the virus in sugarcane plants after artificial inoculation was studied using a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. Leaves of susceptible and moderately resistant sugarcane were mechanically inoculated with SCMV 6 weeks after planting. Weekly for 8 weeks after inoculation, plants were examined for mosaic symptoms and samples of leaves, roots and tillers were tested by RT-PCR to detect virus. SCMV moved from the point of inoculation to younger leaves, roots and tillers and eventually to leaves that emerged prior to inoculation. The pattern of SCMV distribution in moderately resistant and susceptible cultivars was not substantially different. However, the virus moved more slowly in the moderately resistant than in the susceptible cultivar. Young leaves proved to be the most suitable tissue for testing.
Resumo:
Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
Resumo:
A bituminous coal was pyrolyzed in a nitrogen stream in an entrained flow reactor at various temperatures from 700 to 1475 degreesC. Char samples were collected at different positions along the reactor. Each collected sample was oxidized nonisothermally in a TGA for reactivity determination. The reactivity of the coal char was found to decrease rapidly with residence time until 0.5 s, after which it decreased only slightly. On the bases of the reactivity data at various temperatures, a new approach was utilized to obtaining the true activation energy distribution function for thermal annealing without the assumption of any distribution function form or a constant preexponential factor. It appears that the true activation energy distribution function consists of two separate parts corresponding to different temperature ranges, suggesting different mechanisms in different temperature ranges. Partially burnt coal chars were also collected along the reactor when the coal was oxidized in air at various temperatures from 700 to 1475 degreesC. The collected samples were analyzed for the residual carbon content and the specific reaction rate was estimated. The characteristic time of thermal deactivation was compared with that of oxidation under realistic conditions. The characteristic times were found to be close to each other, indicating the importance of thermal deactivation during combustion of the coal studied.
Resumo:
Bakeriella lata sp. nov. (Brazil, Rondônia), Bakeriella aurata sp. nov. (Brazil, Amazonas) and Bakeriella sulcaticeps sp. nov. (Brazil, Amazonas) are described and illustrated. New geographic records and variation data for B. cristata Evans, 1964, B. floridana Evans, 1964, B. flavicornis Kieffer, 1910, B. incompleta Azevedo, 1994, B. mira Evans, 1997, B. montivaga (Kieffer, 1910), B. olmeca Evans, 1964 and B. subcarinata Evans, 1965 are provided. The male of B. incompleta is described for the first time.
Resumo:
INTRODUÇÃO: O diagnóstico e terapia antirretroviral precoce em lactentes, infectados pelo HIV por transmissão vertical, reduz a progressão do HIV e comorbidades que podem levar ao óbito. OBJETIVO GERAL: Avaliar o perfil clínico e epidemiológico em uma coorte de crianças e adolescentes com aids, infectados por transmissão vertical do HIV, por um período de onze anos, atendidos em hospital estadual de referência, no Estado do Espírito Santo. OBJETIVOS ESPECÍFICOS: 1. Descrever a frequência das comorbidades diagnosticadas após o diagnóstico de HIV e verificar sua distribuição, segundo dados demográficos, epidemiológicos e clínicos, e segundo a classificação dos casos em uma coorte de crianças e adolescentes com aids. 2. Avaliar os fatores preditores de risco de progressão para aids e óbito e causas de morte. 3. Estimar a taxa de sobrevida. MÉTODOS: Coorte retrospectiva de crianças e adolescentes infectados pelo HIV, por transmissão vertical (TV), atendidas no Serviço de Atendimento Especializado (SAE) do Hospital Infantil Nossa Senhora da Glória (HINSG), de janeiro 2001 a dezembro 2011, em Vitória – ES/Brasil. A coleta de dados foi realizada em protocolo específico padronizado, e dados sobre as comorbidades, mortalidade e sua causa básica foram obtidos dos prontuários médicos, da Declaração de Óbito e do banco de dados SIM (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade). O diagnóstico de aids e comorbidades foi de acordo com CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)/1994. RESULTADOS: Foi arrolado um total de 177 pacientes, sendo 97 (55%) do sexo feminino; 60 (34%) eram menores de1ano, 67 (38%) tinham de 1 a 5 anos e 50 (28%) tinham6 anos ou mais de idade no ingresso ao serviço. A mediana das idades na admissão foi de 30 meses (Intervalo Interquartis (IIQ) 25-75%: 5-72 meses). Em relação à classificação clínico-imunológica, 146 pacientes (82,5%) apresentavam a forma moderada/grave no momento do ingresso no Serviço e 26 (14,7%) foram a óbito. Os sinais clínicos mais frequentes foram hepatomegalia (81,62%), esplenomegalia (63,8%), linfadenopatia (68,4%) e febre persistente (32,8%). As comorbidades mais frequentes foram anemia (67,2%), pneumonia/sepses/meningite - primeiro episódio (64,2%), OMA/sinusite recorrente (55,4%), infecções bacterianas graves recorrentes (47,4%) e dermatites (43,1%). Encontrou-se associação entre classificação clínico-imunológica grave e ingresso no serviço com menos de um ano de idade com algumas comorbidades (p<0,001). O tempo total do acompanhamento dos pacientes foi de 11 anos, com mediana de cinco anos (IIQ: 2-8 anos). No final do período estudado, 132 (74,6%) pacientes estavam em acompanhamento, 11 (6,2%) foram transferidos para outros serviços eem oito (4,5%) houve perda de seguimento. Quanto ao óbito, observou-se uma redução de casos ao longo do tempo. A maioria dos pacientes que foram a óbito deu entrada no serviço com classificação clínica imunológica grave (77%-20/26), apresentava anemia moderada/grave e estava em uso de terapia antirretroviral (TARV) por mais de 3 meses (17/24-71%).Os principais fatores de risco para o óbito foram: faixa etária < 1 ano (p=0,005), pneumonia por P. jirovecii (p=0,010), percentual de linfócito T CD4+ nadir <15% (p=0,012), anemia crônica (p=0,012), estágio clínico imunológico grave (p=0,003), infecções bacterianas graves recorrentes(p=0,003) e tuberculose (p=0,037). Ter iniciado TARV antes dos 6 meses de vida (diagnóstico e tratamento precoces) foi associado à sobrevida(OR 2,86, [Intervalo de Confiança (IC) de 95%: 1,12-7,25] p=0,027).O principal diagnóstico registrado para os óbitos foram infecções bacterianas graves (12/21-57%). Foi encontrada uma elevada taxa de sobrevida, com 85,3% de probabilidade de sobrevivência por mais de 10 anos (IC 95% 9,6-10,7). CONCLUSÕES: A maioria das crianças teve diagnóstico tardio da infecção pelo HIV aumentando o risco de progressão para aids e óbito por falta de tratamento precoce. A tendência de mortalidade das crianças infectadas pelo HIV se mostrou uma constante com queda nos dois últimos anos do estudo, e ainda persistem as infecções bacterianas como maior causa de óbito. Portanto, melhoria no cuidado pré-natal e acompanhamento pediátrico com vista ao diagnóstico precoce das crianças infectadas verticalmente devem fazer parte do cuidado integral à criança com aids, o que poderia reduzir a mortalidade destas crianças.
Resumo:
O Teorema Central do Limite e a Lei dos Grandes Números estão entre os mais importantes resultados da teoria da probabilidade. O primeiro deles busca condições sob as quais [fórmula] converge em distribuição para a distribuição normal com parâmetros 0 e 1, quando n tende ao infinito, onde Sn é a soma de n variáveis aleatórias independentes. Ao mesmo tempo, o segundo estabelece condições para que [fórmula] convirja a zero, ou equivalentemente, para que [fórmula] convirja para a esperança das variáveis aleatórias, caso elas sejam identicamente distribuídas. Em ambos os casos as sequências abordadas são do tipo [fórmula], onde [fórmula] e [fórmula] são constantes reais. Caracterizar os possíveis limites de tais sequências é um dos objetivos dessa dissertação, já que elas não convergem exclusivamente para uma variável aleatória degenerada ou com distribuição normal como na Lei dos Grandes Números e no Teorema Central do Limite, respectivamente. Assim, somos levados naturalmente ao estudo das distribuições infinitamente divisíveis e estáveis, e os respectivos teoremas limites, e este vem a ser o objetivo principal desta dissertação. Para as demonstrações dos teoremas utiliza-se como estratégia principal a aplicação do método de Lyapunov, o qual consiste na análise da convergência da sequência de funções características correspondentes às variáveis aleatórias. Nesse sentido, faremos também uma abordagem detalhada de tais funções neste trabalho.
Resumo:
Poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoethylene) electrospun membranes were obtained from a blend of dimethylformamide (DMF) and methylethylketone (MEK) solvents. The inclusion of the MEK to the solvent system promotes a faster solvent evaporation allowing complete polymer crystallization during the jet travelling between the tip and the grounded collector. Several processing parameters were systematically changed to study their influence on fiber dimensions. Applied voltage and inner needle diameter do not have large influence on the electrospun fiber average diameter but in the fiber diameter distribution. On the other hand, the increase of the distance between the needle tip to collector results in fibers with larger average diameter. Independently on the processing conditions, all mats are produced in the electroactive phase of the polymer. Further, MC-3T3-E1cell adhesion was not inhibited by the fiber mats preparation, indicating their potential use for biomedical applications.
Resumo:
Poly(hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) obtained from sugar cane was dissolved in a blend of chloroform and dimethylformamide (DMF) and electrospun at 40 ºC. By adding DMF to the solution, the electrospinning process for the PHB polymer becomes more stable, allowing complete polymer crystallization during the jet travelling between the tip and the grounded collector. The influence of processing parameters on fiber size and distribution was systematically studied. It was observed that an increase of tip inner diameter promotes a decrease of the fiber average size and a broader distribution. On the other hand, an increase of the electric field and flow rate produces an increase of fiber diameter until a maximum of ~2.0 m, but for electric fields higher than 1.5 kV.cm-1, a decrease of the fiber diameter was observed. Polymer crystalline phase seems to be independent of the processing conditions and a crystallinity degree of 53 % was found. Moreover, thermal degradation of the as-spun membrane occurs in single step degradation with activation energy of 91 kJ/mol. Furthermore, MC-3T3-E1 cell adhesion was not inhibited by the fiber mats preparation, indicating their potential use for biomedical applications.
Resumo:
Fungal diseases are important factors limiting common bean yield. White mold is one of the main diseases caused by soil pathogens. The objective of this study was to quantify the distribution of a fungicide solution sprayed into the canopy of bean plants by spectrophotometry, using a boom sprayer with and without air assistance. The experiment was arranged in a 2 x 2 x 2 factorial (two types of nozzles, two application rates, and air assistance on and off) randomized block design with four replications. Air assistance influenced the deposition of solution on the bean plant and yield increased significantly with the increased rate of application and air assistance in the boom sprayer.
Resumo:
LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission.