Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Marketing performance measurement : overview of approaches and practices for high technology firms

Um levantamento de 320 executivos de marketing feito pelo Conselho CMO e divulgado em junho de 2004 indicou que poucas companhias de alta tecnologia (menos de 20% das empresas entrevistadas) têm desenvolvido medidas e métricas úteis e expressivas para as suas organizações de marketing. Porém a pesquisa também revelou que companhias que estabeleceram medidas formais e compreensivas atingiram resultados financeiros superiores e tiveram mais confiança do CEO na função de marketing. Esta dissertação provê uma visão geral da informação precisa para executivos de marketing entenderem e implementarem processos para medição de performance de marketing (MPM) em suas organizações. Ela levanta questões para gerentes de marketing na industria de alta tecnologia com respeito às demandas para maior responsabilidade final, valor de medição para o melhoramento dos processos de marketing, iniciativas para determinar a lucratividade dos investimentos em marketing, e a importância das atividades de marketing nos relatórios corporativos. Esta dissertação defende a implementação de MPM, mapeando seus benefícios de medição para ambos gerentes de marketing e as suas empresas. o trabalho logo explora alguns conceitos gerais de medição de marketing e investiga algumas abordagens a MPM propostas pela industria, pela comunidade acadêmica, e pelos analistas. Finalmente, a dissertação descreve algumas práticas que todo gerente de marketing na industria de alta tecnologia deve considerar quando adotando MPM. As sugestões são gerais, mas devem familiarizar o leitor com as informações precisas para habilitar processos e rigor na sua organização com respeito a MPM.

Comparing equilibrium real interest rates : different approaches to measure Brazilian rates

Despite the difficulties involved in the precise determination of equilibrium real interest rates, it seems clear that nominal interest rates has been higher in Brazil than in similar emerging economies. This paper aims to shed light on the possible reasons for this feature of the Brazilian economy. We extend Miranda and Muinhos (2003) one-country study to a sample of 20 countries, using many methods to compare measures of the real interest: (i) extracting equilibrium interest rates from IS curves; (ii) extracting steady state interest rates from marginal product of capital; (iii) capturing relevant variables and the fixed effects having real interest rates as dependent variable in a panel for emerging countries; and (iv) extracting inflation expectation from the spread between fixed rate and inflation-indexed treasure notes.

SSM samba: a survey of brazilian approaches to soft systems methodology (1999-2005)

This paper reports the results of a survey intended to discover the manner in which Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is understood and used in Brazil. The focus is upon SSM papers published in national and international journals, and conferences, incorporating a refereeing procedure. To be included in the survey, publications had to meet at least one of the following criteria: (a) authorship is clearly of Brazilian nationality; or, (b) authorship is affiliated to a Brazilian institution; or (c) application is set in Brazil. Similar surveys reporting on the United Kingdom, Australia and, to a lesser extent, Spain have been published previously in the literature. This paper, therefore, contributes to the growing international understanding and usage of SSM. Ultimately the paper serves as an initial map of the developing context in Brazilian SSM theory and practice.

Valuing emerging markets companies : new approaches to determine the effective exposure to country risk

The aim of this paper is to propose new methods to measure the effective exposure to country risk of emerging-market companies. Starting from Damodaran (2003), we propose seven new approaches and a revised CAPM for emerging markets companies. The “Prospective Lambda” represents the effective exposure according to analysts’ estimates of growth. The “Relative Lambda” relies on the firm value estimated through a relative valuation. The “Retrospective Lambda” represents the ex-post effective exposure to country risk. The “Company Effective Risk Premium” is a generalization of the Retrospective Lambda, and expresses the premium effectively requested by investors to invest in that specific company in the past year. “The Actual Lambda” and the “Company Actual Risk Premium” represent, respectively, the actual exposure to country risk of a company and the actual premium requested by investors to invest in that specific company. The “Industry Lambda” reflects the median exposure to country risk of the industry in which the company belongs. We tested our new measures of exposure to country risk on the Latin American emerging markets companies according to the classification of the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index. The results confirm that the new approaches can be effectively applied by financial analysts to stable-growth companies that operate in emerging markets and to mature markets companies that operate in emerging markets, providing with a more reliable estimate of both the premium effectively requested by investors in the past and the actual premium. Applying the new approaches, the cost of equity reflects the effective exposure of a company to country risk without being over- or underestimated, as is the case with other existing approaches.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Solid phase microextraction, mass spectrometry and metabolomic approaches for detection of potential urinary cancer biomarkers: a powerful strategy for breast cancer diagnosis

A sensitive assay to identify volatile organic metabolites (VOMs) as biomarkers that can accurately diagnose the onset of breast cancer using non-invasively collected clinical specimens is ideal for early detection. Therefore the aim of this study was to establish the urinary metabolomic profile of breast cancer patients and healthy individuals (control group) and to explore the VOMs as potential biomarkers in breast cancer diagnosis at early stage. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) using CAR/PDMS sorbent combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry was applied to obtain metabolomic information patterns of 26 breast cancer patients and 21 healthy individuals (controls). A total of seventy-nine VOMs, belonging to distinct chemical classes, were detected and identified in control and breast cancer groups. Ketones and sulfur compounds were the chemical classes with highest contribution for both groups. Results showed that excretion values of 6 VOMs among the total of 79 detected were found to be statistically different (p < 0.05). A significant increase in the peak area of (−)-4-carene, 3-heptanone, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 2-methoxythiophene and phenol, in VOMs of cancer patients relatively to controls was observed. Statiscally significant lower abundances of dimethyl disulfide were found in cancer patients. Bioanalytical data were submitted to multivariate statistics [principal component analysis (PCA)], in order to visualize clusters of cases and to detect the VOMs that are able to differentiate cancer patients from healthy individuals. Very good discrimination within breast cancer and control groups was achieved. Nevertheless, a deep study using a larger number of patients must be carried out to confirm the results.

Terapia ocupacional em ação interdisciplinar: jogos educativo-nutricionais na prevenção da obesidade infantil

The inter-subjectivity is the answer in the search for the solution of complex problems, which concerns interfaces of knowledge, respecting their borders. This paradigm is essential in the author's work. So, the search on screen is based on this perspective, by using inter-subject groups of work conduced by professionals of Computer Science, Social Communication, Architecture and Urbanism, Pedagogy, Psicopegagogy, Nutritional Science, Endocrinology, Occupational Therapy and Nursing, it was also part of this group an 8 year old child, daughter of one of the professional who took part of the group. This thesis aims to present the course of investigation developed, analyzing the action of inter-subject Occupational Therapy and Nutrition on the promotion of learning nutritional concepts through educative-nutritional games in order to prevent child's obesity in an educative context. The research was analytic, interventionist and almost experimental. It took place in a public school in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil, between August and December 2004. It was selected a sample non-probabilistic, by convenience, of 200 children, born from 1994 to 1996. It was selected almost nonprobabilistically, by convenience, 200 children born between 1994 and 1996. To analyze the results it was used a triangulation, associated by quantitative and qualitative approaches. The basis collect happened through games specially manufactured to these research- video-games, board games, memory games, puzzles, scramble, searching words and iterative basics. There were semi-structured interviews, direct and structured observations and focus in-groups. It was noticed the efficiency of educativenutritional games in the learning process, which lead to a changing of attitude towards the eating choices. These games gave similar results in relation to the compared variations preferences, experience and attitudes, theses attitudes were observed through the game; and the categories to compare the possibility of learning by playing, the fantasy in the learning process, learning concepts of nutritional education and the need of help in the learning process (mediation). It was proved that educativenutritional games could be used to teach nutritional concepts, in an inter-subjective action of Occupational Therapy and Nutrition in schools. The simultaneous application of these games lead to the optimization of child s learning process. It should be emphasized the need of studies about the adaptation of tools used in a child s Nutritional Education, with the help of inter-subjective action. Because just one subject, in a fractionated way can give an answer to complex problems and help to a change of the reality with effectiveness and resolution