Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

O impacto do capital intelectual na performance

Para as organizações sobreviverem num novo ambiente competitivo, tiveram que deixar de procurar obter vantagens competitivas nos seus recursos tangíveis para as procurarem nos ativos intangíveis. Assim, várias investigações comprovam a necessidade de se dar a devida importância ao conceito de Capital Intelectual como fonte de criação de vantagens competitivas para as organizações. Esta importância aplica-se a vários níveis de análise entre os quais o setor público. Esta investigação visa analisar a importância relativa de cada dimensão do capital intelectual de uma Instituição de Ensino, bem como o impacto do mesmo na performance (percecionada pelos seus stakeholders). Nesta dissertação adotamos o método de Estudo de Caso, utilizando uma abordagem mista – quantitativa e qualitativa. Utilizámos variadas técnicas na recolha de dados, tais como: entrevista, registo de áudio e questionários. Relativamente à análise de dados, efetuamos uma análise de conteúdo, análise de documentos e análise estatística. Ao nível de resultados, a análise qualitativa sugere que as três dimensões do Capital Intelectual (Capital Humano, Capital Estrutural e Capital Relacional) devem possuir a mesma importância relativa para avaliar o capital intelectual de uma Instituição de Ensino. Os resultados quantitativos sugerem que o capital intelectual tem impacto na performance, o que está em linha com a literatura sobre o tema. Finalmente, considerámos que esta tese contribui para uma sensibilização relativamente à importância do capital intelectual para melhorar a gestão e performance em contextos educacionais.

Full-scale biological phosphorus removal: quantification of storage polymers, microbial performance and metabolic modelling

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Gender Differences in Spatial Cognition: Wayfinding Performance and Sketch Mapping Activity of German Speakers

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Gestão da performance na cadeia de abastecimento lean: desenvolvimento de uma framework baseada no balanced scorecard

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

PERFORMANCE OF CONVENTIONAL PCRs BASED ON PRIMERS DIRECTED TO NUCLEAR AND MITOCHONDRIAL GENES FOR THE DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION OF Leishmania spp.

In visceral leishmaniasis, the detection of the agent is of paramount importance to identify reservoirs of infection. Here, we evaluated the diagnostic attributes of PCRs based on primers directed to cytochrome-B (cytB), cytochrome-oxidase-subunit II (coxII), cytochrome-C (cytC), and the minicircle-kDNA. Although PCRs directed to cytB, coxII, cytC were able to detect different species of Leishmania, and the nucleotide sequence of their amplicons allowed the unequivocal differentiation of species, the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of these PCRs were much lower than the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of the kDNA-PCR. Among the 73 seropositive animals, the asymptomatic dogs had spleen and bone marrow samples collected and tested; only two animals were positive by PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC, whereas 18 were positive by the kDNA-PCR. Considering the kDNA-PCR results, six dogs had positive spleen and bone marrow samples, eight dogs had positive bone marrow results but negative results in spleen samples and, in four dogs, the reverse situation occurred. We concluded that PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC can be useful tools to identify Leishmania species when used in combination with automated sequencing. The discordance between the results of the kDNA-PCR in bone marrow and spleen samples may indicate that conventional PCR lacks sensitivity for the detection of infected dogs. Thus, primers based on the kDNA should be preferred for the screening of infected dogs.

Molecular determinants of ligand specificity in carbohydrate-binding modules: an NMR and X-ray crystallography integrated study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Bioquímica – Ramo Bioquímica Estrutural

Psychosocial Determinants of Quality of Life 6 Months After Transplantation: Longitudinal Prospective Study

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate the psychosocial determinants of quality of life at 6 months after transplantation. METHODS: A sample of liver transplant candidates (n = 60), composed of consecutive patients (25% with familial amyloid polyneuropathy [FAP]) attending outpatient clinics was assessed in the pretransplant period using the Neo Five Factor Inventory, Hospital Anxiety and depression Scale (HADS), Brief COPE, and SF-36, a quality-of-life, self-rating questionnaire. Six months after transplantation, these patients were assessed by means of the SF-36. RESULTS: Psychosocial predictors where found by means of multiple regression analysis. The physical component of quality of life at 6 months after transplantation was determined based upon coping strategies and physical quality of life in the pretransplant period (this model explained 32% of variance). The mental component at 6 months after transplantation was determined by depression in the pretransplant period and by clinical diagnoses of patients. Because FAP patients show a lower mental component of quality of life, this diagnosis explained 25% of the variance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested that coping strategies and depression measured in the pretransplant period are important determinants of quality of life at 6 months after liver transplantation.

Numerical Evaluation of Ventilation Performance in Children Day Care Centres

Modelling of ventilation is strongly dependent on the physical characteristics of the building of which precise evaluation is a complex and time consuming task. In the frame of a research project, two children day care centres (CDCC) have been selected in order to measure the envelope air permeability, the flow rate of mechanical ventilation systems and indoor and outdoor temperature. The data obtained was used as input to the computer code CONTAM for ventilation simulations. The results obtained were compared with direct measurements of ventilation flow from short term measurements with CO2 tracer gas and medium term measurements with perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) gas decay method. After validation, in order to analyse the main parameters that affect ventilation, the model was used to predict the ventilation rates for a wide range of conditions. The purpose of this assessment was to find the best practices to improve natural ventilation. A simple analytical method to predict the ventilation flow rate of rooms is also presented. The method is based on the estimation of wind effect on the room through the evaluation of an average factor and on the assessment of relevant cross section of gaps and openings combined in series or in parallel. It is shown that it may be applied with acceptable accuracy for this type of buildings when ventilation is due essentially to wind action.

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Cloud computing adoption - Determinants of cloud computing adoption by firms

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Tão perto do silêncio: memória, performance e exílio entre refugiados e requerentes de asilo em Portugal (documentário)

Trabalho de Projecto apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Antropologia – Culturas Visuais

Strategies for the enhancement of the catalytic performance of cutinase in nonaqueous media

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Clinical Outcome and Morphologic Determinants of Mural Thrombus in Abdominal Aortic Endografts

OBJECTIVE:Endograft mural thrombus has been associated with stent graft or limb thrombosis after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). This study aimed to identify clinical and morphologic determinants of endograft mural thrombus accumulation and its influence on thromboembolic events after EVAR. METHODS: A prospectively maintained database of patients treated by EVAR at a tertiary institution from 2000 to 2012 was analyzed. Patients treated for degenerative infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms and with available imaging for thrombus analysis were considered. All measurements were performed on three-dimensional center-lumen line computed tomography angiography (CTA) reconstructions. Patients with thrombus accumulation within the endograft's main body with a thickness >2 mm and an extension >25% of the main body's circumference were included in the study group and compared with a control group that included all remaining patients. Clinical and morphologic variables were assessed for association with significant thrombus accumulation within the endograft's main body by multivariate regression analysis. Estimates for freedom from thromboembolic events were obtained by Kaplan-Meier plots. RESULTS: Sixty-eight patients (16.4%) presented with endograft mural thrombus. Median follow-up time was 3.54 years (interquartile range, 1.99-5.47 years). In-graft mural thrombus was identified on 30-day CTA in 22 patients (32.4% of the study group), on 6-month CTA in 8 patients (11.8%), and on 1-year CTA in 17 patients (25%). Intraprosthetic thrombus progressively accumulated during the study period in 40 patients of the study group (55.8%). Overall, 17 patients (4.1%) presented with endograft or limb occlusions, 3 (4.4%) in the thrombus group and 14 (4.1%) in the control group (P = .89). Thirty-one patients (7.5%) received an aortouni-iliac (AUI) endograft. Two endograft occlusions were identified among AUI devices (6.5%; overall, 0.5%). None of these patients showed thrombotic deposits in the main body, nor were any outflow abnormalities identified on the immediately preceding CTA. Estimated freedom from thromboembolic events at 5 years was 95% in both groups (P = .97). Endograft thrombus accumulation was associated with >25% proximal aneurysm neck thrombus coverage at baseline (odds ratio [OR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-3.3), neck length ≤ 15 mm (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.2), proximal neck diameter ≥ 30 mm (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.6), AUI (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.8-5.5), or polyester-covered stent grafts (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 2.2-7.3) and with main component "barrel-like" configuration (OR, 6.9; 95% CI, 1.7-28.3). CONCLUSIONS: Mural thrombus formation within the main body of the endograft is related to different endograft configurations, main body geometry, and device fabric but appears to have no association with the occurrence of thromboembolic events over time.

The determinants of SMEs capital structure: Overcoming supply constraints

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics