Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts

This study examines the selectivity and timing performance of 218 UK investment trusts over the period July 1981 to June 2009. We estimate the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models augmented with the size, value, and momentum factors, either under the OLS method adjusted with the Newey-West procedure or under the GARCH(1,1)-in-mean method following the specification of Glosten et al. (1993; hereafter GJR-GARCH-M). We find that the OLS method provides little evidence in favour of the selectivity and timing ability, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the GJR-GARCH-M method reverses this result, showing some relatively strong evidence on favourable selectivity ability, particularly for international funds, as well as favourable timing ability, particularly for domestic funds. We conclude that the GJR-GARCH-M method performs better in evaluating fund performance compared with the OLS method and the non-parametric approach, as it essentially accounts for the time-varying characteristics of factor loadings and hence obtains more reliable results, in particular, when the high frequency data, such as the daily returns, are used in the analysis. Our results are robust to various in-sample and out-of-sample tests and have valuable implications for practitioners in making their asset allocation decisions across different fund styles. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Response to out of stock produce and its underlying economic considerations

The goal of this research is to investigate consumer response to out-of-stock product in the produce category. We do this by comparing results from a survey conducted in Greece and the United States to previous research on consumer response to out-of-stock situations for other perishable and non-perishable products. We further examined the underlying economic reasoning as well as the cultural and physical differences between the United States and Greece as explanations of different reactions. Out of Stock produce response proved different in produce than in other perishables and non-perishables. There is some evidence that produce does follow previous the suggested economic reasoning from the previous research, especially within transaction costs. Finally, the respondent’s country proved very significant in dictating response.

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Dynamic models of exchange rate dependence using option prices and historical returns

Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.

Taking the carbon out of the car

Effective measures are being taken to reduce emissions from cars, which are now emerging as a major contributor to climate change. Developed countries will need to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050 to achieve stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration between 450 and 550 ppm, and have a unique opportunity to avoid the most damaging effects of climate change. The UK is aiming at completely decarbonising transport by 2050 through a combination of more efficient vehicles, cleaner fuels, and smart driving choices. The European Commission has proposed a mandatory CO2 target on new car CO 2 efficiency, which is an urgent needed development. The nation is also using regulatory targets for local schemes, such as free parking or congestion charging, break points for company car tax, and vehicle excise duty. Car ownership and use should thereby continue to drive economic growth and enhance quality of life around the world without destroying the planet.

Breaking out of the silo mentality

The return to methods focusing on language and experience following the dominance of experimental methods has in the last few decades led to debate, dialogue, and disagreement regarding the status of qualitative and quantitative methods. However, a recent focus on impact has brought an air of pragmatism to the research arena. In what ways, then, is psychology moving from entrenched mono methods approaches that have epitomised its development until recently, to describing and discussing ways in which mixed and pluralistic research can advance and contribute to further, deeper psychological understanding?.

Implementing a knowledge management system within an NHS hospital:a case study exploring the roll-out of an Electronic Patient Record (EPR)

This research aims to contribute to understanding the implementation of knowledge management systems (KMS) in the field of health through a case study, leading to theory building and theory extension. We use the concept of the business process approach to knowledge management as a theoretical lens to analyse and explore how a large teaching hospital developed, executed and practically implemented a KMS. A qualitative study was conducted over a 2.5 year period with data collected from semi-structured interviews with eight members of the strategic management team, 12 clinical users and 20 patients in addition to non-participant observation of meetings and documents. The theoretical propositions strategy was used as the overarching approach for data analysis. Our case study provides evidence that true patient centred approaches to supporting care delivery with a KMS benefit from process thinking at both the planning and implementation stages, and an emphasis on the knowledge demands resulting from: the activities along the care pathways; where cross-overs in care occur; and knowledge sharing for the integration of care. The findings also suggest that despite the theoretical awareness of KMS implementation methodologies, the actual execution of such systems requires practice and learning. Flexible, fluid approaches through rehearsal are important and communications strategies should focus heavily on transparency incorporating both structured and unstructured communication methods.

Making mole-hills out of mountains:Peer Mentoring in Engineering education - A case-study

Based on the emergent findings of a pilot study which examined the issues around introducing Peer Mentoring into an Engineering School, this paper, which is very much a 'work in progress', describes and discusses results from the first year of what will be a three year exploratory study. Focusing on three distinctive concepts integral to the student experience, Relationships, Variety and Synergy, the study follows an Action Research Design in that it aims to find a realistic and workable solution to issues of attrition within the Engineering School in which the Project and Study are set. Starting with the research question "Does Peer Mentoring improve engineering students' transition into university?"', the Pilot Project and Study will run for three years, each year building on the lessons of the previous year.

Out of credit: Evaluating the impact of the EU structural funds on Hungarian small business growth and access to finance

Totaling EUR 29 billion, Hungary is in the midst of implementing its largest economic development program in its young democratic history. At the center of the European Union led development program is an effort to revitalize and reequip Hungary’s languishing small and medium sized enterprises (SME), long the country's heart of employment. This paper examines the efficiency and impact of two Structural Fund's instruments to enhance SME development – ECOP 2.1.1 and JEREMIE. A survey of 1275 SME and interviews with dozens of top policy-makers paint a flawed development program in dire need of reform. Despite this, empirical analysis suggests JEREMIE funds may have dampened the effects of the financial crisis and are crucial for the continued liquidity of SME, who have been particularly hit hard by the world financial crisis.

The role of longevity risk in Hungary

In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

Two Decades Out of the Whirlpool: Past (and Possible Future) United States Interventions in Latin America [Student's Paper Series]

This paper examines the history of U.S. interventions in Latin America and attempts to explain their frequency by highlighting two factors – besides security and economic interests – that have made American interventions in Latin America so common. First, immense differences in size and influence between the United States and the States of Latin America have made interventions appear to be a low risk solution to crises that threaten American interests in the region. Second, when U.S government concerns and aspirations for Latin America converge with the general fears and aspirations of American foreign policy, interventions become much more likely. Such a convergence pushes Latin American issues high up the U.S. foreign policy agenda because of the region’s proximity to the United States and the perception that costs of intervening are low. The leads proponents of intervention to begin asking questions like “if we cannot stop communism/revolutions/drug-trafficking in Latin America, where can we stop it?” This article traces how these factors influenced the decision to intervene in Latin America during the era of Dollar Diplomacy and during the Cold War. It concludes with three possible scenarios that could lead to a reemergence of an American interventionist policy in Latin America. It makes the argument that even though the United Sates has not intervened in Latin America during the twenty-two years, it is far from clear that American interventions in Latin America will be consigned to the past.

Out of Challenge, Opportunity: Central America's Electric Sector & Key Issues and Recommendations for Enhanced Regional Electric Integration

Taken together, the six nations of Central America count a population of roughly 40 million people and an energy market equal in size to that of Colombia, sufficient to benefit from economies of scale. The region has traditionally been a net importer of hydrocarbons, and hydroelectricity has dominated electric generation. But more recently, thermoelectric generation (diesel and fuel oil) has greatly increased as a percentage of the regional generation market. Progress has been made across the region’s electric sector, beginning with reforms in the 1990s and the 1996 signing of a regional treaty aimed at the development of a regional energy integration project – the Central American Electrical Interconnection System, or SIEPAC. A fundamental SIEPAC goal is to set up a regional electric market and a regulatory system. Indeed, after many years of development, SIEPAC is poised to open a new chapter in Central America’s electric infrastructure and market. But this new era must contend with critical issues such as the need to consolidate the regional electric market, political issues surrounding the venture, and security concerns. Moreover, local conflicts, in different degrees, have become priorities for policymakers, and these are possible barriers to completing the project. The goals of the SIEPAC project and of deepening the broader electric integration process are possible if national and regional decision makers understand that cooperative decision making will produce better results than separate national decision making. Enhanced regional understanding and cooperative decision making, combined with an effort to reorient the terminology and dialogue vis-à-vis energy efficiency in Central America, form the core recommendations of this paper.

Take the "Con" Out of Consulting in the Food Service Industry

Consultants can help a food service operator with almost any problem which needs solving. Howeve6 the manager must "manage" the consultant. The author offers a design for planning for hiring and evaluating the work of anyone given the job of analyzing existing systems and diagnosing problems.