Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Health, endogenous time preference, and inequality : a political economy perspective

We study an overlapping-generations model in which agents' mortality risks, and consequently impatience, are endogenously determined by private and public investment in health care. Revenues allocated for public health care arc determined by a voting process. We find that the degree of substitutability between public and private health expenditures matters for macroeconomic outcomes of the model. Higher substitutability implies a “crowding-out" effect, which in turn impacts adversely on morality risks and impatience leading to lower public expenditures on health care in the political equilibrium. Consequently, higher substitutability is associated with greater polarization in wealth, and long-run distributions that are bimodal.

Thermoanalytical studies of natural potassium, sodium and ammonium alunites

Dynamic and controlled rate thermal analysis (CRTA) has been used to characterise alunites of formula [M(Al)3(SO4)2(OH)6 ] where M+ is the cations K+, Na+ or NH4+. Thermal decomposition occurs in a series of steps. (a) dehydration, (b) well defined dehydroxylation and (c) desulphation. CRTA offers a better resolution and a more detailed interpretation of water formation processes via approaching equilibrium conditions of decomposition through the elimination of the slow transfer of heat to the sample as a controlling parameter on the process of decomposition. Constant-rate decomposition processes of water formation reveal the subtle nature of dehydration and dehydroxylation.

A political economy perspective on persistent inequality, inflation, and redistribution

In this paper we examine the dynamics of the link between inequality and inflation from a political economy perspective. We consider a simple dynamic general equilibrium model in which agents vote over the desired inflation rate in each period, and inequality is persistent. Inflation in our model is a mechanism of redistribution, and we find that the link between inequality and inflation within any period or over time depends on institutional and preference related parameters. Furthermore, we find that differences in the initial distributions of wealth can yield a diverse set of patterns for the evolution of the inflation and inequality link. Relative to existing literature, our model leads to more precise predictions about the inflation-inequality correlation. To that end, results in the extant empirical literature on the inflation and inequality link need to be interpreted with caution.

Constraints to cost effective land supply

The ready availability of suitably zoned and serviced land is one of the key factors in the timely and cost effective provision of new land for development. Unfortunately, in many high population growth areas, land that may be available does not have ready access to infrastructure, or the appropriate designation/s (zoning) in place. The corresponding lag in supply frequently bears the blame for the resultant disequilibrium in the market and affordability pressures on the end product. Government has the capacity to respond to the issue of land supply in a number of ways. Proactive measures define longer term goals and set the ground rules moving forwards. Reactive policy decisions are made in an often hostile environment where stakeholder interests conflict. With a trend to increased regulation, government risks further constraining the viability of land development in high growth areas, without full consideration of all the supply side variables. This preliminary paper will identify a number of the variables which may be constraining the supply of land for residential development in South East Queensland given the current regulatory environment. It will examine the interrelationship between these supply side constraints, a full understanding of which is required by government in order for its policies to stimulate, rather than restrict the supply of land in this high growth region.

Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

Design optimisation using advanced artificial intelligent system coupled to hybrid-game strategies

One of the main aims in artificial intelligent system is to develop robust and efficient optimisation methods for Multi-Objective (MO) and Multidisciplinary Design (MDO) design problems. The paper investigates two different optimisation techniques for multi-objective design optimisation problems. The first optimisation method is a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). The second method combines the concepts of Nash-equilibrium and Pareto optimality with Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) which is denoted as Hybrid-Game. Numerical results from the two approaches are compared in terms of the quality of model and computational expense. The benefit of using the distributed hybrid game methodology for multi-objective design problems is demonstrated.

Studies of the radiation chemistry and grafting of a fluoropolymer

The radiation chemistry and the grafting of a fluoropolymer, poly(tetrafluoroethylene-coperfluoropropyl vinyl ether) (PFA), was investigated with the aim of developing a highly stable grafted support for use in solid phase organic chemistry (SPOC). A radiation-induced grafting method was used whereby the PFA was exposed to ionizing radiation to form free radicals capable of initiating graft copolymerization of styrene. To fully investigate this process, both the radiation chemistry of PFA and the grafting of styrene to PFA were examined. Radiation alone was found to have a detrimental effect on PFA when irradiated at 303 K. This was evident from the loss in the mechanical properties due to chain scission reactions. This meant that when radiation was used for the grafting reactions, the total radiation dose needed to be kept as low as possible. The radicals produced when PFA was exposed to radiation were examined using electron spin resonance spectroscopy. Both main-chain (–CF2–C.F–CF2-) and end-chain (–CF2–C.F2) radicals were identified. The stability of the majority of the main-chain radicals when the polymer was heated above the glass transition temperature suggested that they were present mainly in the crystalline regions of the polymer, while the end-chain radicals were predominately located in the amorphous regions. The radical yield at 77 K was lower than the radical yield at 303 K suggesting that cage recombination at low temperatures inhibited free radicals from stabilizing. High-speed MAS 19F NMR was used to identify the non-volatile products after irradiation of PFA over a wide temperature range. The major products observed over the irradiation temperature 303 to 633 K included new saturated chain ends, short fluoromethyl side chains in both the amorphous and crystalline regions, and long branch points. The proportion of the radiolytic products shifted from mainly chain scission products at low irradiation temperatures to extensive branching at higher irradiation temperatures. Calculations of G values revealed that net crosslinking only occurred when PFA was irradiated in the melt. Minor products after irradiation at elevated temperatures included internal and terminal double bonds and CF3 groups adjacent to double bonds. The volatile products after irradiation at 303 K included tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and oxygen-containing species from loss of the perfluoropropyl ether side chains of PFA as identified by mass spectrometry and FTIR spectroscopy. The chemical changes induced by radiation exposure were accompanied by changes in the thermal properties of the polymer. Changes in the crystallinity and thermal stability of PFA after irradiation were examined using DSC and TGA techniques. The equilibrium melting temperature of untreated PFA was 599 K as determined using a method of extrapolation of the melting temperatures of imperfectly formed crystals. After low temperature irradiation, radiation- induced crystallization was prevalent due to scission of strained tie molecules, loss of perfluoropropyl ether side chains, and lowering of the molecular weight which promoted chain alignment and hence higher crystallinity. After irradiation at high temperatures, the presence of short and long branches hindered crystallization, lowering the overall crystallinity. The thermal stability of the PFA decreased with increasing radiation dose and temperature due to the introduction of defect groups. Styrene was graft copolymerized to PFA using -radiation as the initiation source with the aim of preparing a graft copolymer suitable as a support for SPOC. Various grafting conditions were studied, such as the total dose, dose rate, solvent effects and addition of nitroxides to create “living” graft chains. The effect of dose rate was examined when grafting styrene vapour to PFA using the simultaneous grafting method. The initial rate of grafting was found to be independent of the dose rate which implied that the reaction was diffusion controlled. When the styrene was dissolved in various solvents for the grafting reaction, the graft yield was strongly dependent of the type and concentration of the solvent used. The greatest graft yield was observed when the solvent swelled the grafted layers and the substrate. Microprobe Raman spectroscopy was used to map the penetration of the graft into the substrate. The grafted layer was found to contain both poly(styrene) (PS) and PFA and became thicker with increasing radiation dose and graft yield which showed that grafting began at the surface and progressively penetrated the substrate as the grafted layer was swollen. The molecular weight of the grafted PS was estimated by measuring the molecular weight of the non-covalently bonded homopolymer formed in the grafted layers using SEC. The molecular weight of the occluded homopolymer was an order of magnitude greater than the free homopolymer formed in the surrounding solution suggesting that the high viscosity in the grafted regions led to long PS grafts. When a nitroxide mediated free radical polymerization was used, grafting occurred within the substrate and not on the surface due to diffusion of styrene into the substrate at the high temperatures needed for the reaction to proceed. Loading tests were used to measure the capacity of the PS graft to be functionialized with aminomethyl groups then further derivatized. These loading tests showed that samples grafted in a solution of styrene and methanol had superior loading capacity over samples graft using other solvents due to the shallow penetration and hence better accessibility of the graft when methanol was used as a solvent.

Dynamics of in vitro polymer degradation of polycaprolactone-based scaffolds : accelerated versus simulated physiological conditions

The increasing use of biodegradable devices in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine means it is essential to study and understand their degradation behaviour. Accelerated degradation systems aim to achieve similar degradation profiles within a shorter period of time, compared with standard conditions. However, these conditions only partially mimic the actual situation, and subsequent analyses and derived mechanisms must be treated with caution and should always be supported by actual long-term degradation data obtained under physiological conditions. Our studies revealed that polycaprolactone (PCL) and PCL-composite scaffolds degrade very differently under these different degradation conditions, whilst still undergoing hydrolysis. Molecular weight and mass loss results differ due to the different degradation pathways followed (surface degradation pathway for accelerated conditions and bulk degradation pathway for simulated physiological conditions). Crystallinity studies revealed similar patterns of recrystallization dynamics, and mechanical data indicated that the scaffolds retained their functional stability, in both instances, over the course of degradation. Ultimately, polymer degradation was shown to be chiefly governed by molecular weight, crystallinity susceptibility to hydrolysis and device architecture considerations whilst maintaining its thermodynamic equilibrium.

Modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour : a review and outlook

Public transport is one of the key promoters of sustainable urban transport. To encourage and increase public transport patronage it is important to investigate the route choice behaviours of urban public transit users. This chapter reviews the main developments of modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviours in a historical perspective, from the 1960s to the present time. The approaches re- viewed for this study include the early heuristic studies on finding the least-cost transit route and all-or- nothing transit assignment, the bus common lines problem, the disaggregate discrete choice models, the deterministic and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models. This chapter also provides an outlook for the future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviours. Through the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems, this chapter advocates that transit route choice research should draw inspiration from the research outcomes from the road area, and that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the behavioural complexities.

Design Optimisation of UAVs Systems achieved on a Framework Environment via Evolution and Game Theory

Over recent years, Unmanned Air Vehicles or UAVs have become a powerful tool for reconnaissance and surveillance tasks. These vehicles are now available in a broad size and capability range and are intended to fly in regions where the presence of onboard human pilots is either too risky or unnecessary. This paper describes the formulation and application of a design framework that supports the complex task of multidisciplinary design optimisation of UAVs systems via evolutionary computation. The framework includes a Graphical User Interface (GUI), a robust Evolutionary Algorithm optimiser named HAPEA, several design modules, mesh generators and post-processing capabilities in an integrated platform. These population –based algorithms such as EAs are good for cases problems where the search space can be multi-modal, non-convex or discontinuous, with multiple local minima and with noise, and also problems where we look for multiple solutions via Game Theory, namely a Nash equilibrium point or a Pareto set of non-dominated solutions. The application of the methodology is illustrated on conceptual and detailed multi-criteria and multidisciplinary shape design problems. Results indicate the practicality and robustness of the framework to find optimal shapes and trade—offs between the disciplinary analyses and to produce a set of non dominated solutions of an optimal Pareto front to the designer.

A study of water binding, mobility and dehydration in contact lens hydrogels using NMR

Hydrogel polymers are used for the manufacture of soft (or disposable) contact lenses worldwide today, but have a tendency to dehydrate on the eye. In vitro methods that can probe the potential for a given hydrogel polymer to dehydrate in vivo are much sought after. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has been shown to be effective in characterising water mobility and binding in similar systems (Barbieri, Quaglia et al., 1998, Larsen, Huff et al., 1990, Peschier, Bouwstra et al., 1993), predominantly through measurement of the spin-lattice relaxation time (T1), the spinspin relaxation time (T2) and the water diffusion coefficient (D). The aim of this work was to use NMR to quantify the molecular behaviour of water in a series of commercially available contact lens hydrogels, and relate these measurements to the binding and mobility of the water, and ultimately the potential for the hydrogel to dehydrate. As a preliminary study, in vitro evaporation rates were measured for a set of commercial contact lens hydrogels. Following this, comprehensive measurement of the temperature and water content dependencies of T1, T2 and D was performed for a series of commercial hydrogels that spanned the spectrum of equilibrium water content (EWC) and common compositions of contact lenses that are manufactured today. To quantify material differences, the data were then modelled based on theory that had been used for similar systems in the literature (Walker, Balmer et al., 1989, Hills, Takacs et al., 1989). The differences were related to differences in water binding and mobility. The evaporative results suggested that the EWC of the material was important in determining a material's potential to dehydrate in this way. Similarly, the NMR water self-diffusion coefficient was also found to be largely (if not wholly) determined by the WC. A specific binding model confirmed that the we was the dominant factor in determining the diffusive behaviour, but also suggested that subtle differences existed between the materials used, based on their equilibrium we (EWC). However, an alternative modified free volume model suggested that only the current water content of the material was important in determining the diffusive behaviour, and not the equilibrium water content. It was shown that T2 relaxation was dominated by chemical exchange between water and exchangeable polymer protons for materials that contained exchangeable polymer protons. The data was analysed using a proton exchange model, and the results were again reasonably correlated with EWC. Specifically, it was found that the average water mobility increased with increasing EWe approaching that of free water. The T1 relaxation was also shown to be reasonably well described by the same model. The main conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the hydrogel EWe is an important parameter, which largely determines the behaviour of water in the gel. Higher EWe results in a hydrogel with water that behaves more like bulk water on average, or is less strongly 'bound' on average, compared with a lower EWe material. Based on the set of materials used, significant differences due to composition (for materials of the same or similar water content) could not be found. Similar studies could be used in the future to highlight hydrogels that deviate significantly from this 'average' behaviour, and may therefore have the least/greatest potential to dehydrate on the eye.

Economic growth, inequality and technology adoption in transitional economies

The stylized facts that motivate this thesis include the diversity in growth patterns that are observed across countries during the process of economic development, and the divergence over time in income distributions both within and across countries. This thesis constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model in which technology adoption is costly and agents are heterogeneous in their initial holdings of resources. Given the households‟ resource level, this study examines how adoption costs influence the evolution of household income over time and the timing of transition to more productive technologies. The analytical results of the model constructed here characterize three growth outcomes associated with the technology adoption process depending on productivity differences between the technologies. These are appropriately labeled as „poverty trap‟, „dual economy‟ and „balanced growth‟. The model is then capable of explaining the observed diversity in growth patterns across countries, as well as divergence of incomes over time. Numerical simulations of the model furthermore illustrate features of this transition. They suggest that that differences in adoption costs account for the timing of households‟ decision to switch technology which leads to a disparity in incomes across households in the technology adoption process. Since this determines the timing of complete adoption of the technology within a country, the implications for cross-country income differences are obvious. Moreover, the timing of technology adoption appears to be impacts on patterns of growth of households, which are different across various income groups. The findings also show that, in the presence of costs associated with the adoption of more productive technologies, inequalities of income and wealth may increase over time tending to delay the convergence in income levels. Initial levels of inequalities in the resources also have an impact on the date of complete adoption of more productive technologies. The issue of increasing income inequality in the process of technology adoption opens up another direction for research. Specifically increasing inequality implies that distributive conflicts may emerge during the transitional process with political- economy consequences. The model is therefore extended to include such issues. Without any political considerations, taxes would leads to a reduction in inequality and convergence of incomes across agents. However this process is delayed if politico-economic influences are taken into account. Moreover, the political outcome is sub optimal. This is essentially due to the fact that there is a resistance associated with the complete adoption of the advanced technology.

Soil carbon saturation : evaluation and corroboration by long-term incubations

Although current assessments of agricultural management practices on soil organic C (SOC) dynamics are usually conducted without any explicit consideration of limits to soil C storage, it has been hypothesized that the SOC pool has an upper, or saturation limit with respect to C input levels at steady state. Agricultural management practices that increase C input levels over time produce a new equilibrium soil C content. However, multiple C input level treatments that produce no increase in SOC stocks at equilibrium show that soils have become saturated with respect to C inputs. SOC storage of added C input is a function of how far a soil is from saturation level (saturation deficit) as well as C input level. We tested experimentally if C saturation deficit and varying C input levels influenced soil C stabilization of added C-13 in soils varying in SOC content and physiochemical characteristics. We incubated for 2.5 years soil samples from seven agricultural sites that were closer to (i.e., A-horizon) or further from (i.e., C-horizon) their C saturation limit. At the initiation of the incubations, samples received low or high C input levels of 13 C-labeled wheat straw. We also tested the effect of Ca addition and residue quality on a subset of these soils. We hypothesized that the proportion of C stabilized would be greater in samples with larger C Saturation deficits (i.e., the C- versus A-horizon samples) and that the relative stabilization efficiency (i.e., Delta SCC/Delta C input) would decrease as C input level increased. We found that C saturation deficit influenced the stabilization of added residue at six out of the seven sites and C addition level affected the stabilization of added residue in four sites, corroborating both hypotheses. Increasing Ca availability or decreasing residue quality had no effect on the stabilization of added residue. The amount of new C stabilized was significantly related to C saturation deficit, supporting the hypothesis that C saturation influenced C stabilization at all our sites. Our results suggest that soils with low C contents and degraded lands may have the greatest potential and efficiency to store added C because they are further from their saturation level. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transit users' route-choice modelling in transit assignment : a review

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in thecontext of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within-day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re-examined. The first group includes shortest-path heuristics in all-or-nothing assignment, random utility maximization route-choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within-day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day-to-day dynamics, and real-time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.