Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

The durability of glass fibre reinforced cements made with new cementitious matrices

Widespread use of glass fibre reinforced cement (GRC) has been impeded by concerns over its durability. Three degradation mechanisms are proposed - fibre corrosion, Ca(OHh precipitation and matrix densification - although their relative importance is debated. Matrices with reduced alkalinities and Ca(OH)2 contents are being developed; the aim of this study was to investigate their hydration and interaction with alkali-resistant fibres to determine the factors controlling their long-term durability, and assess the relevancy of accelerated ageing. The matrices studied were: OPC/calcium-sulphoaluminate cement plus metakaolin (C); OPC plus metakaolin (M); blast-furnace slag cement plus a micro-silica based additive (D); and OPC (O). Accelerated ageing included hot water and cyclic regimes prior to tensile testing. Investigations included pore solution expression, XRD, DTA/TG, SEM and optical petrography. Bond strength was determined from crack spacings using microstructural parameters obtained from a unique image analysis technique. It was found that, for the new matrices - pore solution alkalinities were lower; Ca(OH)2 was absent or quickly consumed; different hydrates were formed at higher immersion temperatures; degradation under 65°C immersion was an order of magnitude slower, and no interfilamental Ca(OH)2 was observed .It was concluded that: fibre weakening caused by flaw growth was the primary degradation mechanism and was successfully modelled on stress corrosion/static fatigue principles. OPC inferiority was attributed partly to its higher alkalinity but chiefly to the growth of Ca(OH)2 aggravating the degradation; and hot water ageing although useful in model formulation and contrasting the matrices, changed the intrinsic nature of the composites rather than simply accelerating the degradation mechanisms.

The clinical assessment of systemic hypertension in optometric practice

This thesis sets out to examine in detail the condition of systemic hypertension (high Blood Pressure) in relation to optometric practice in the United Kingdom. Systemic hypertension, which is asymptomatic in the early stages, is diagnosed from the Blood Pressure (BP) measurement recorded by a sphygmomanometer and/or from the complications that have developed in target organs. Optometric practice based surveys revealed that diagnosed systemic hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular medical condition (20.5%). Measurement of BP of patients in this sample revealed that if an optometrist included sphygmomanometry into the sight examination then at least one patient each day would be referred for suspect systemic hypertension. Optometric opinion felt that the measurement of BP in optometric practice would advance the profession, being appreciated by both patients and General Practitioners (GPs), but was felt to be an unnecessary routine procedure. The present sight examination for the systemic hypertensive is similar to that of the normotensive patient, but may involve an altered fundus examination and a visual field test. The GPs were in favour of optometric BP measurement and a future role in the share care management of the systemic hypertensive. The application of a new pictorial grading scale for the grading of vascular changes associated with pre-malignant systemic hypertension was found to be both accurate and reliable. Clinical trial of the grading scale in optometric practice found positive correlations between BP and increasing severity of the retinal vascular features. The subtle pre-malignant vascular changes require reliable accurate detection and analysis to assist in the management of the systemic hypertensive patient. Vessel width was shown to decrease with increasing age. Image analysis of the A/V ratio, arteriolar tortuosity and focal calibre changes revealed a positive correlation to the patient's BP (p<0.001). The retinal vasculature is relatively stable longitudinally with only minor changes in response to early disease states. Age and elevated BP increased a patient's risk of developing systemic medical conditions over a two-year period. The application of the pictorial grading scale to optometric practice and training the optometrist in the use of sphygmomanometry would improve the management of the systemic hypertensive patient in optometric practice. Future advances in image analysis hold substantial benefits for the detection and monitoring of subtle vascular changes associated with systemic hypertension.

A low-cost remote sensing system for agricultural applications

This research develops a low cost remote sensing system for use in agricultural applications. The important features of the system are that it monitors the near infrared and it incorporates position and attitude measuring equipment allowing for geo-rectified images to be produced without the use of ground control points. The equipment is designed to be hand held and hence requires no structural modification to the aircraft. The portable remote sensing system consists of an inertia measurement unit (IMU), which is accelerometer based, a low-cost GPS device and a small format false colour composite digital camera. The total cost of producing such a system is below GBP 3000, which is far cheaper than equivalent existing systems. The design of the portable remote sensing device has eliminated bore sight misalignment errors from the direct geo-referencing process. A new processing technique has been introduced for the data obtained from these low-cost devices, and it is found that using this technique the image can be matched (overlaid) onto Ordnance Survey Master Maps at an accuracy compatible with precision agriculture requirements. The direct geo-referencing has also been improved by introducing an algorithm capable of correcting oblique images directly. This algorithm alters the pixels value, hence it is advised that image analysis is performed before image georectification. The drawback of this research is that the low-cost GPS device experienced bad checksum errors, which resulted in missing data. The Wide Area Augmented System (WAAS) correction could not be employed because the satellites could not be locked onto whilst flying. The best GPS data were obtained from the Garmin eTrex (15 m kinematic and 2 m static) instruments which have a highsensitivity receiver with good lock on capability. The limitation of this GPS device is the inability to effectively receive the P-Code wavelength, which is needed to gain the best accuracy when undertaking differential GPS processing. Pairing the carrier phase L1 with the pseudorange C/A-Code received, in order to determine the image coordinates by the differential technique, is still under investigation. To improve the position accuracy, it is recommended that a GPS base station should be established near the survey area, instead of using a permanent GPS base station established by the Ordnance Survey.

A quantitative analysis of optic nerve axons in elderly control subjects and patients with Alzheimer's disease

Objective: To study the density and cross-sectional area of axons in the optic nerve in elderly control subjects and in cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) using an image analysis system. Methods: Sections of optic nerves from control and AD patients were stained with toluidine blue to reveal axon profiles. Results: The density of axons was reduced in both the center and peripheral portions of the optic nerve in AD compared with control patients. Analysis of axons with different cross-sectional areas suggested a specific loss of the smaller sized axons in AD, i.e., those with areas less that 1.99 μm2. An analysis of axons >11 μm2 in cross-sectional area suggested no specific loss of the larger axons in this group of patients. Conclusions: The data suggest that image analysis provides an accurate and reproducible method of quantifying axons in the optic nerve. In addition, the data suggest that axons are lost throughout the optic nerve with a specific loss of the smaller-sized axons. Loss of the smaller axons may explain the deficits in color vision observed in a significant proportion of patients with AD.

Consensus on recording of gas permeable contact lens fit

Purpose: To develop a new schematic scheme for efficiently recording the key parameters of gas permeable contact lens (GP) fits based on current consensus. Methods: Over 100 established GP fitters and educators met to discuss the parameters proposed in educational material for evaluating GP fit and concluded on the key parameters that should be recorded. The accuracy and variability of evaluating the fluorescein pattern of GP fit was determined by having 35 experienced contact lens practitioners from across the world, grading 5 images of a range of fits and the topographer simulation of the same fits, in random, order using the proposed scheme. The accuracy of the grading was compared to objective image analysis of the fluorescein intensity of the same images. Results: The key information to record to adequately describe the fit of an GP was agreed as: the manufacturer, brand and lens parameters; settling time; comfort on a 5 point scale; centration; movement on blink on a ±2 scale; and the Primary Fluorescein Pattern in the central, mid-peripheral and edge regions of the lens averaged along the horizontal and vertical lens axes, on a ±2 scale. On average 50-60% of practitioners selected the median grade when subjectively rating fluorescein intensity and this was correlated to objective quantification (r= 0.602, p< 0.001). Objective grading suggesting horizontal median fluorescein intensity was generally symmetrical, as was the vertical meridian, but this was not the case for subjective grading. Simulated fluorescein patterns were subjectively and objectively graded as being less intense than real photographs (p< 0.01). Conclusion: GP fit recording can be standardised and simplified to enhance GP practice. © 2013 British Contact Lens Association.

Quantitative analysis of multi-spectral fundus images

We have developed a new technique for extracting histological parameters from multi-spectral images of the ocular fundus. The new method uses a Monte Carlo simulation of the reflectance of the fundus to model how the spectral reflectance of the tissue varies with differing tissue histology. The model is parameterised by the concentrations of the five main absorbers found in the fundus: retinal haemoglobins, choroidal haemoglobins, choroidal melanin, RPE melanin and macular pigment. These parameters are shown to give rise to distinct variations in the tissue colouration. We use the results of the Monte Carlo simulations to construct an inverse model which maps tissue colouration onto the model parameters. This allows the concentration and distribution of the five main absorbers to be determined from suitable multi-spectral images. We propose the use of "image quotients" to allow this information to be extracted from uncalibrated image data. The filters used to acquire the images are selected to ensure a one-to-one mapping between model parameters and image quotients. To recover five model parameters uniquely, images must be acquired in six distinct spectral bands. Theoretical investigations suggest that retinal haemoglobins and macular pigment can be recovered with RMS errors of less than 10%. We present parametric maps showing the variation of these parameters across the posterior pole of the fundus. The results are in agreement with known tissue histology for normal healthy subjects. We also present an early result which suggests that, with further development, the technique could be used to successfully detect retinal haemorrhages.

Evolving ambiguous images

This work explores the creation of ambiguous images, i.e., images that may induce multistable perception, by evolutionary means. Ambiguous images are created using a general purpose approach, composed of an expression-based evolutionary engine and a set of object detectors, which are trained in advance using Machine Learning techniques. Images are evolved using Genetic Programming and object detectors are used to classify them. The information gathered during classification is used to assign fitness. In a first stage, the system is used to evolve images that resemble a single object. In a second stage, the discovery of ambiguous images is promoted by combining pairs of object detectors. The analysis of the results highlights the ability of the system to evolve ambiguous images and the differences between computational and human ambiguous images.

Comparison between graticule and image capture assessment of lower tear film meniscus height

Purpose: To compare graticule and image capture assessment of the lower tear film meniscus height (TMH). Methods: Lower tear film meniscus height measures were taken in the right eyes of 55 healthy subjects at two study visits separated by 6 months. Two images of the TMH were captured in each subject with a digital camera attached to a slit-lamp biomicroscope and stored in a computer for future analysis. Using the best of two images, the TMH was quantified by manually drawing a line across the tear meniscus profile, following which the TMH was measured in pixels and converted into millimetres, where one pixel corresponded to 0.0018 mm. Additionally, graticule measures were carried out by direct observation using a calibrated graticule inserted into the same slit-lamp eyepiece. The graticule was calibrated so that actual readings, in 0.03 mm increments, could be made with a 40× ocular. Results: Smaller values of TMH were found in this study compared to previous studies. TMH, as measured with the image capture technique (0.13 ± 0.04 mm), was significantly greater (by approximately 0.01 ± 0.05 mm, p = 0.03) than that measured with the graticule technique (0.12 ± 0.05 mm). No bias was found across the range sampled. Repeatability of the TMH measurements taken at two study visits showed that graticule measures were significantly different (0.02 ± 0.05 mm, p = 0.01) and highly correlated (r = 0.52, p < 0.0001), whereas image capture measures were similar (0.01 ± 0.03 mm, p = 0.16), and also highly correlated (r = 0.56, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Although graticule and image analysis techniques showed similar mean values for TMH, the image capture technique was more repeatable than the graticule technique and this can be attributed to the higher measurement resolution of the image capture (i.e. 0.0018 mm) compared to the graticule technique (i.e. 0.03 mm). © 2006 British Contact Lens Association.

The effect of digital image resolution and compression on anterior eye imaging

Aim: To determine the theoretical and clinical minimum image pixel resolution and maximum compression appropriate for anterior eye image storage. Methods: Clinical images of the bulbar conjunctiva, palpebral conjunctiva, and corneal staining were taken at the maximum resolution of Nikon:CoolPix990 (2048 × 1360 pixels), DVC:1312C (1280 × 811), and JAI:CV-S3200 (767 × 569) single chip cameras and the JVC:KYF58 (767 × 569) three chip camera. The images were stored in TIFF format and further copies created with reduced resolution or compressed. The images were then ranked for clarity on a 15 inch monitor (resolution 1280 × 1024) by 20 optometrists and analysed by objective image analysis grading. Theoretical calculation of the resolution necessary to detect the smallest objects of clinical interest was also conducted. Results: Theoretical calculation suggested that the minimum resolution should be ≥579 horizontal pixels at 25 × magnification. Image quality was perceived subjectively as being reduced when the pixel resolution was lower than 767 × 569 (p<0.005) or the image was compressed as a BMP or <50% quality JPEG (p<0.005). Objective image analysis techniques were less susceptible to changes in image quality, particularly when using colour extraction techniques. Conclusion: It is appropriate to store anterior eye images at between 1280 × 811 and 767 × 569 pixel resolution and at up to 1:70 JPEG compression.

Tensile properties of as fabricated, aged, and stretched SiC whisker and particle reinforced 2009 aluminium alloy

Tensile tests were carried out using specimens of 2009 aluminium alloy reinforced by either SiC whiskers or particles. The size distributions of the whiskers and particles in the matrix were obtained by image analysis. It was found that failure was a result of uniform void nucleation and coalescence in the as fabricated composites, or a result of fast crack propagation initiated by a flaw developed at clusters of SiC in the aged or stretched and aged composites. The strengths of the as fabricated composites were estimated based on the results of image analysis using continuum mechanics and dislocation theories. The estimation indicated that the tensile strengths are largely contributed to by composite strengthening, supplemented by residual dislocation strengthening and work hardening. Owing to the flaw controlled failure, the tensile strengths of the aged or stretched and aged composites were independent of aging time, aging temperature, and the amount of stretching. The elastic moduli of the composites were estimated using the Halpin-Tsai model and a good correlation was found between the measured and estimated moduli. © 1996 The Institute of Materials.

Multispectral fundus analysis

Purpose - To generate a reflectance model of the fundus that allows an accurate non-invasive quantification of blood and pigments. Methods - A Monte Carlo simulation was used to produce a mathematical model of light interaction with the fundus at different wavelengths. The model predictions were compared with fundus images from normal volunteers in several spectral bands (peaks at 507, 525, 552, 585, 596 and 611nm). Th e model was then used to calculate the concentration and distribution of the known absorbing components of the fundus. Results - The shape of the statistical distribution of the image data generally corresponded to that of the model data; the model however appears to overestimate the reflectance of the fundus in the longer wavelength region.As the absorption by xanthophyll has no significant eff ect on light transport above 534nm, its distribution in the fundus was quantified: the wavelengths where both shape and distribution of image and model data matched (<553nm) were used to train a neural network which was then applied to every point in the image data. The xanthophyll distribution thus found was in agreement with published literature data in normal subjects. Conclusion - We have developed a method for optimising multi-spectral imaging of the fundus and a computer image analysis capable of estimating information about the structure and properties of the fundus. Th e technique successfully calculates the distribution of xanthophyll in the fundus of healthy volunteers. Further improvement of the model is required to allow the deduction of other parameters from images; investigations in known pathology models are also necessary to establish if this method is of clinical use in detecting early chroido-retinopathies, hence providing a useful screening and diagnostic tool.

Objective analysis of contact lens fit

Purpose: To assess the validity and repeatability of objective compared to subjective contact lens fit analysis. Methods: Thirty-five subjects (aged 22.0. ±. 3.0 years) wore two different soft contact lens designs. Four lens fit variables: centration, horizontal lag, post-blink movement in up-gaze and push-up recovery speed were assessed subjectively (four observers) and objectively from slit-lamp biomicroscopy captured images and video. The analysis was repeated a week later. Results: The average of the four experienced observers was compared to objective measures, but centration, movement on blink, lag and push-up recovery speed all varied significantly between them (p <. 0.001). Horizontal lens centration was on average close to central as assessed both objectively and subjectively (p > 0.05). The 95% confidence interval of subjective repeatability was better than objective assessment (±0.128. mm versus ±0.168. mm, p = 0.417), but utilised only 78% of the objective range. Vertical centration assessed objectively showed a slight inferior decentration (0.371. ±. 0.381. mm) with good inter- and intrasession repeatability (p > 0.05). Movement-on-blink was lower estimated subjectively than measured objectively (0.269. ±. 0.179. mm versus 0.352. ±. 0.355. mm; p = 0.035), but had better repeatability (±0.124. mm versus ±0.314. mm 95% confidence interval) unless correcting for the smaller range (47%). Horizontal lag was lower estimated subjectively (0.562. ±. 0.259. mm) than measured objectively (0.708. ±. 0.374. mm, p <. 0.001), had poorer repeatability (±0.132. mm versus ±0.089. mm 95% confidence interval) and had a smaller range (63%). Subjective categorisation of push-up speed of recovery showed reasonable differentiation relative to objective measurement (p <. 0.001). Conclusions: The objective image analysis allows an accurate, reliable and repeatable assessment of soft contact lens fit characteristics, being a useful tool for research and optimisation of lens fit in clinical practice.

Handwriting in Forensic Investigations

The process of automatic handwriting investigation in forensic science is described. The general scheme of a computer-based handwriting analysis system is used to point out at the basic problems of image enhancement and segmentation, feature extraction and decision-making. Factors that may compromise the accuracy of expert’s conclusion are underlined and directions for future investigations are marked.

Комбинированный Подход к Представлению Содержания и Текстового Описания Мультимедиа

В статье рассмотрена проблема семантической разницы между содержимым мультимедиа и его текстовым описанием, определяемым вручную. Предложен комбинированный подход к представлению семантики мультимедиа, основанный на объединении близких по содержанию и текстовому описанию мультимедиа в классы, содержащие обобщённые описания объектов, связей между ними и ключевых слов текстовых метаданных из некоторого тезауруса. Для формирования этих классов используются операции иерархической кластеризации и машинного обучения. Данный подход позволяет расширить область поиска и навигации мультимедиа благодаря привлечению медиа-данных, имеющих схожее содержание и текстовое описание.