A recessionary debate: who suffered more? A study of sectoral well-being and economic insecurity in Ireland

The aim of this thesis is to identify the relationship between subjective well-being and economic insecurity for public and private sector workers in Ireland using the European Social Survey 2010-2012. Life satisfaction and job satisfaction are the indicators used to measure subjective well-being. Economic insecurity is approximated by regional unemployment rates and self-perceived job insecurity. Potential sample selection bias and endogeneity bias are accounted for. It is traditionally believed that public sector workers are relatively more protected against insecurity due to very institution of public sector employment. The institution of public sector employment is made up of stricter dismissal practices (Luechinger et al., 2010a) and less volatile employment (Freeman, 1987) where workers are subsequently less likely to be affected by business cycle downturns (Clark and Postal-Vinay, 2009). It is found in the literature that economic insecurity depresses the well-being of public sector workers to a lesser degree than private sector workers (Luechinger et al., 2010a; Artz and Kaya, 2014). These studies provide the rationale for this thesis in testing for similar relationships in an Irish context. Sample selection bias arises when a selection into a particular category is not random (Heckman, 1979). An example of this is non-random selection into public sector employment based on personal characteristics (Heckman, 1979; Luechinger et al., 2010b). If selection into public sector employment is not corrected for this can lead to biased and inconsistent estimators (Gujarati, 2009). Selection bias of public sector employment is corrected for by using a standard Two-Step Heckman Probit OLS estimation method. Following Luechinger et al. (2010b), the propensity for individuals to select into public sector employment is estimated by a binomial probit model with the inclusion of the additional regressor Irish citizenship. Job satisfaction is then estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with the inclusion of a sample correction term similar as is done in Clark (1997). Endogeneity is where an independent variable included in the model is determined within in the context of the model (Chenhall and Moers, 2007). The econometric definition states that an endogenous independent variable is one that is correlated with the error term (Wooldridge, 2010). Endogeneity is expected to be present due to a simultaneous relationship between job insecurity and job satisfaction whereby both variables are jointly determined (Theodossiou and Vasileiou, 2007). Simultaneity, as an instigator of endogeneity, is corrected for using Instrumental Variables (IV) techniques. Limited Information Methods and Full Information Methods of estimation of simultaneous equations models are assed and compared. The general results show that job insecurity depresses the subjective well-being of all workers in both the public and private sectors in Ireland. The magnitude of this effect differs among sectoral workers. The subjective well-being of private sector workers is more adversely affected by job insecurity than the subjective well-being of public sector workers. This is observed in basic ordered probit estimations of both a life satisfaction equation and a job satisfaction equation. The marginal effects from the ordered probit estimation of a basic job satisfaction equation show that as job insecurity increases the probability of reporting a 9 on a 10-point job satisfaction scale significantly decreases by 3.4% for the whole sample of workers, 2.8% for public sector workers and 4.0% for private sector workers. Artz and Kaya (2014) explain that as a result of many austerity policies implemented to reduce government expenditure during the economic recession, workers in the public sector may for the first time face worsening perceptions of job security which can have significant implications for their well-being (Artz and Kaya, 2014). This can be observed in the marginal effects where job insecurity negatively impacts the well-being of public sector workers in Ireland. However, in accordance with Luechinger et al. (2010a) the results show that private sector workers are more adversely impacted by economic insecurity than public sector workers. This suggests that in a time of high economic volatility, the institution of public sector employment held and was able to protect workers against some of the well-being consequences of rising insecurity. In estimating the relationship between subjective well-being and economic insecurity advanced econometric issues arise. The results show that when selection bias is corrected for, any statistically significant relationship between job insecurity and job satisfaction disappears for public sector workers. Additionally, in order to correct for endogeneity bias the simultaneous equations model for job satisfaction and job insecurity is estimated by Limited Information and Full Information Methods. The results from two different estimators classified as Limited Information Methods support the general findings of this research. Moreover, the magnitude of the endogeneity-corrected estimates are twice as large as those not corrected for endogeneity bias which is similarly found in Geishecker (2010, 2012). As part of the analysis into the effect of economic insecurity on subjective well-being, the effects of other socioeconomic variables and work-related variables are examined for public and private sector workers in Ireland.

Drug prescribing patterns in the General Medical Services Scheme in Ireland and projected costs to 2026

The primary objective is to investigate the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing and projecting this expenditure to 2026. This study is located in the area of pharmacoeconomic cost containment and projections literature. The thesis has five main aims: 1. To determine the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing. 2. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2006 Central Statistics Office (CSO) Census data and 2007 Health Service Executive{Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE{PCRS) sample data. 3. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2012 HSE{PCRS population data, incorporating cost containment measures, and 2011 CSO Census data. 4. To investigate the impact of demographic factors and the pharmacology of drugs (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC)) on GMS expenditure. 5. To explore the consequences of GMS policy changes on prescribing expenditure and behaviour between 2008 and 2014. The thesis is centered around three published articles and is located between the end of a booming Irish economy in 2007, a recession from 2008{2013, to the beginning of a recovery in 2014. The literature identified a number of factors influencing pharmaceutical expenditure, including population growth, population aging, changes in drug utilisation and drug therapies, age, gender and location. The literature identified the methods previously used in predictive modelling and consequently, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model was used to simulate projected expenditures to 2026. Also, the literature guided the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression in determining demographic and pharmacology factors influencing prescribing expenditure. The study commences against a backdrop of growing GMS prescribing costs, which has risen from e250 million in 1998 to over e1 billion by 2007. Using a sample 2007 HSE{PCRS prescribing data (n=192,000) and CSO population data from 2008, (Conway et al., 2014) estimated GMS prescribing expenditure could rise to e2 billion by2026. The cogency of these findings was impacted by the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Irish economy, mounting fiscal deficits resulting in Ireland's entry to a bailout programme. The sustainability of funding community drug schemes, such as the GMS, came under the spotlight of the EU, IMF, ECB (Trioka), who set stringent targets for reducing drug costs, as conditions of the bailout programme. Cost containment measures included: the introduction of income eligibility limits for GP visit cards and medical cards for those aged 70 and over, introduction of co{payments for prescription items, reductions in wholesale mark{up and pharmacy dispensing fees. Projections for GMS expenditure were reevaluated using 2012 HSE{PCRS prescribing population data and CSO population data based on Census 2011. Taking into account both cost containment measures and revised population predictions, GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from e1.1 billion in 2016 to e1.8 billion by 2026, (ConwayLenihan and Woods, 2015). In the final paper, a cross{sectional study was carried out on HSE{PCRS population prescribing database (n=1.63 million claimants) to investigate the impact of demographic factors, and the pharmacology of the drugs, on GMS prescribing expenditure. Those aged over 75 (ẞ = 1:195) and cardiovascular prescribing (ẞ = 1:193) were the greatest contributors to annual GMS prescribing costs. Respiratory drugs (Montelukast) recorded the highest proportion and expenditure for GMS claimants under the age of 15. Drugs prescribed for the nervous system (Escitalopram, Olanzapine and Pregabalin) were highest for those between 16 and 64 years with cardiovascular drugs (Statins) were highest for those aged over 65. Females are more expensive than males and are prescribed more items across the four ATC groups, except among children under 11, (ConwayLenihan et al., 2016). This research indicates that growth in the proportion of the elderly claimants and associated levels of cardiovascular prescribing, particularly for statins, will present difficulties for Ireland in terms of cost containment. Whilst policies aimed at cost containment (co{payment charges, generic substitution, reference pricing, adjustments to GMS eligibility) can be used to curtail expenditure, health promotional programs and educational interventions should be given equal emphasis. Also policies intended to affect physicians prescribing behaviour include guidelines, information (about price and less expensive alternatives) and feedback, and the use of budgetary restrictions could yield savings.

Ireland and the global economic crisis: one island, two different experiences

In this chapter, Ó hAdhmaill argues that responses to the global economic crisis which emerged in 2008 reflected a dominant ideological discourse, with ‘austerity’ being a tool in a wider agenda to reassert neoliberalist thinking in the global economy and welfare provision in the richer countries. In Ireland, North and South, however, the experience of, and responses to, the crisis and ‘austerity’ were different, reflecting different social, economic, and political contexts and influences, as well as different levels of democratic control. Ó hAdhmaill outlines some of these differences and argues that, while democratic control in smaller jurisdictions may be limited by the ‘real rulers’ of the world, global capital, people still have ‘agency’ and do not have to be mere passive observers of unfolding events.

Progress and the Lack of Progress in Addressing Infant Health and Infant Health Inequalities in Ireland during the 20th Century

There is a growing literature which documents the importance of early life environment for outcomes across the life cycle. Research, including studies based on Irish data, demonstrates that those who experience better childhood conditions go on to be wealthier and healthier adults. Therefore, inequalities at birth and in childhood shape inequality in wellbeing in later life, and the historical evolution of the mortality and morbidity of children born in Ireland is important for understanding the current status of the Irish population. In this paper, I describe these patterns by reviewing the existing literature on infant health in Ireland over the course of the 20th century. Up to the 1950s, infant mortality in Ireland (both North and South) was substantially higher than in other developed countries, with a large penalty for those born in urban areas. The subsequent reduction in this penalty, and the sustained decline in infant death rates, occurred later than would be expected from the experience in other contexts. Using records from the Rotunda Lying-in Hospital in Dublin, I discuss sources of disparities in stillbirth in the early 1900s. Despite impressive improvements in death rates since that time, a comparison with those born at the end of the century reveals that Irish children continue to be born unequal. Evidence from studies which track people across the life course, for example research on the returns to birthweight, suggests that the economic cost of this early life inequality is substantial.

Organisational factors affecting transition from children’s to adult services by young adults with life-limiting conditions in Ireland

Economic impacts of seafood production growth targets in Ireland

This paper examines the potential economic impact of the Irish government strategy for the development of the seafood sector in Ireland, Food Harvest 2020 (FH2020). The seafood industry accounts for a large proportion of income and employment in peripheral coastal areas. Many of these regions are predominantly rural and they are largely dependent on the primary fisheries sector. Moreover, the services and retail businesses in these areas are heavily dependent on direct spending from the fisheries, aquaculture and seafood processing sectors. A social accounting matrix (SAM) approach with (1) set to zero purchase coefficients for all directly impacted industries and (2) changes in output converted to final demand shocks is used to calculate the economic and employment impact on the rest of the economy from an increase in the output in the fisheries, aquaculture and seafood processing sectors in Ireland. The results suggest fisheries sectors have strong links with the rest of the economy hence an important economic impact from a policy perspective.

The cost of a minimum essential food basket in the Republic of Ireland: Study for six household types.

A Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) is derived from a negotiated consensus on what people believe is a minimum standard. It is a standard of living that meets an individual’s or a household’s physical, psychological and social needs. This is calculated by identifying the goods and services required by different household types in order to meet their needs. While an MESL is based on needs, not wants, it is a standard of living below which nobody should be expected to live. This report focuses on food, one of the 16 elements of the Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) data. It is based on a methodology called Consensual Budget Standards (CBS). The report is presented in the context of increasing concerns about the issue of food poverty in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and an increase in the number of people reporting that they do not have enough money to buy food. Recent data from The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have shown that the number of people believing they cannot afford food doubled from 4.2% in 2008 to 9% in 2014. Data from Eurostat show that in 2013, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in Ireland were 17% higher than the EU average. Moreover, research by Carney and Maitre, using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), found that one in ten people are living in food poverty in Ireland. Food poverty is defined as the inability to have an adequate and nutritious diet due to issues of affordability and access to food. This has related effects on health, culture and social participation. The 2013 data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) show that 1.4 million people, almost 31% of the population, suffer from deprivation. This means that they are unable to afford two items from a list of 11 very basic items (of which one is not being able to eat a meal with meat, chicken, fish or a vegetarian equivalent every second day). The highest levels of deprivation are experienced by lone parents (63%), unemployed people (55%) and people not at work because of illness or disability (53%). The experience of the Vincentian Partnership for Social Justice (VPSJ) is that expenditure on food tends to be one of the least important considerations when households are dealing with competing demands on an inadequate income. A Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) is derived from a negotiated consensus on what people believe is a minimum standard. It is a standard of living that meets an individual’s or a household’s physical, psychological and social needs. This is calculated by identifying the goods and services required by different household types in order to meet their needs. While an MESL is based on needs, not wants, it is a standard of living below which nobody should be expected to live. This report focuses on food, one of the 16 elements of the Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) data. It is based on a methodology called Consensual Budget Standards (CBS). The report is presented in the context of increasing concerns about the issue of food poverty in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and an increase in the number of people reporting that they do not have enough money to buy food. Recent data from The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have shown that the number of people believing they cannot afford food doubled from 4.2% in 2008 to 9% in 2014. Data from Eurostat show that in 2013, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in Ireland were 17% higher than the EU average. Moreover, research by Carney and Maitre, using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), found that one in ten people are living in food poverty in Ireland. Food poverty is defined as the inability to have an adequate and nutritious diet due to issues of affordability and access to food. This has related effects on health, culture and social participation. The 2013 data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) show that 1.4 million people, almost 31% of the population, suffer from deprivation. This means that they are unable to afford two items from a list of 11 very basic items (of which one is not being able to eat a meal with meat, chicken, fish or a vegetarian equivalent every second day). The highest levels of deprivation are experienced by lone parents (63%), unemployed people (55%) and people not at work because of illness or disability (53%). The experience of the Vincentian Partnership for Social Justice (VPSJ) is that expenditure on food tends to be one of the least important considerations when households are dealing with competing demands on an inadequate income. - See more at: http://www.safefood.eu/Publications/Research-reports/The-cost-of-a-healthy-food-basket.aspx#sthash.RiBpj5no.dpuf A Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) is derived from a negotiated consensus on what people believe is a minimum standard. It is a standard of living that meets an individual’s or a household’s physical, psychological and social needs. This is calculated by identifying the goods and services required by different household types in order to meet their needs. While an MESL is based on needs, not wants, it is a standard of living below which nobody should be expected to live. This report focuses on food, one of the 16 elements of the Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) data. It is based on a methodology called Consensual Budget Standards (CBS). The report is presented in the context of increasing concerns about the issue of food poverty in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and an increase in the number of people reporting that they do not have enough money to buy food. Recent data from The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have shown that the number of people believing they cannot afford food doubled from 4.2% in 2008 to 9% in 2014. Data from Eurostat show that in 2013, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in Ireland were 17% higher than the EU average. Moreover, research by Carney and Maitre, using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), found that one in ten people are living in food poverty in Ireland. Food poverty is defined as the inability to have an adequate and nutritious diet due to issues of affordability and access to food. This has related effects on health, culture and social participation. The 2013 data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) show that 1.4 million people, almost 31% of the population, suffer from deprivation. This means that they are unable to afford two items from a list of 11 very basic items (of which one is not being able to eat a meal with meat, chicken, fish or a vegetarian equivalent every second day). The highest levels of deprivation are experienced by lone parents (63%), unemployed people (55%) and people not at work because of illness or disability (53%). The experience of the Vincentian Partnership for Social Justice (VPSJ) is that expenditure on food tends to be one of the least important considerations when households are dealing with competing demands on an inadequate income. - See more at: http://www.safefood.eu/Publications/Research-reports/The-cost-of-a-healthy-food-basket.aspx#sthash.RiBpj5no.dpuf A Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) is derived from a negotiated consensus on what people believe is a minimum standard. It is a standard of living that meets an individual’s or a household’s physical, psychological and social needs. This is calculated by identifying the goods and services required by different household types in order to meet their needs. While an MESL is based on needs, not wants, it is a standard of living below which nobody should be expected to live. This report focuses on food, one of the 16 elements of the Minimum Essential Standard of Living (MESL) data. It is based on a methodology called Consensual Budget Standards (CBS). The report is presented in the context of increasing concerns about the issue of food poverty in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and an increase in the number of people reporting that they do not have enough money to buy food. Recent data from The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have shown that the number of people believing they cannot afford food doubled from 4.2% in 2008 to 9% in 2014. Data from Eurostat show that in 2013, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in Ireland were 17% higher than the EU average. Moreover, research by Carney and Maitre, using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), found that one in ten people are living in food poverty in Ireland. Food poverty is defined as the inability to have an adequate and nutritious diet due to issues of affordability and access to food. This has related effects on health, culture and social participation. The 2013 data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) show that 1.4 million people, almost 31% of the population, suffer from deprivation. This means that they are unable to afford two items from a list of 11 very basic items (of which one is not being able to eat a meal with meat, chicken, fish or a vegetarian equivalent every second day). The highest levels of deprivation are experienced by lone parents (63%), unemployed people (55%) and people not at work because of illness or disability (53%). The experience of the Vincentian Partnership for Social Justice (VPSJ) is that expenditure on food tends to be one of the least important considerations when households are dealing with competing demands on an inadequate income. - See more at: http://www.safefood.eu/Publications/Research-reports/The-cost-of-a-healthy-food-basket.aspx#sthash.RiBpj5no.dpuf

An assessment of the economic cost of smoking in Ireland

The Department of Health has published a report entitled - An assessment of the economic cost of smoking in Ireland.  The study was carried out for the Department of Health by ICF International.  The purpose of this study is to contribute to the evidence base of tobacco consumption and its effects in Ireland, to help support the implementation of the recommendations made in The Tobacco Free Ireland report (2013).

Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic considerations

Background Writing therapy to improve physical or mental health can take many forms. The most researched model of therapeutic writing (TW) is unfacilitated, individual expressive writing (written emotional disclosure). Facilitated writing activities are less widely researched. Data sources Databases including: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts, AMED, and CINHAL were searched from inception to March 2013. Review methods Four TW practitioners provided expert advice. Study procedures were conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised comparative studies were included. Quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Unfacilitated and facilitated TW studies were analysed separately under ICD-10 chapter headings. Meta-analyses were performed where possible using Revman 5.2. Costs were estimated from an NHS perspective and three cost-consequence case studies were prepared. Realist synthesis followed RAMESES guidelines. Objectives To review the clinical and cost-effectiveness of TW for people with long-term health conditions (LTCs) compared to no writing, or other controls, reporting any relevant clinical outcomes. To conduct a realist synthesis to understand how TW might work, and for whom. Results From 14,658 unique citations, 284 full text papers were reviewed and 64 studies (58 RCTs) were included in the final effectiveness reviews. Five studies examined facilitated TW, these were extremely heterogeneous with unclear or high risk of bias, but suggested that facilitated TW interventions may be beneficial in individual LTCs. Unfacilitated expressive writing was examined in 59 studies of variable, or unreported, quality. Overall there was very little or no evidence of any benefit reported in the following conditions (number of studies): HIV (six); breast cancer (eight); gynaecological and genitourinary cancers (five); mental health (five); asthma (four); psoriasis (three); chronic pain (four). In inflammatory arthropathies (six) there was a reduction in disease severity (n= 191, standardised mean difference (SMD) - 0.61 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI) -0.96, -0.26]) in the short term on meta-analysis of four studies. For all other LTCs there was either no, or sparse, data with no, or inconsistent, evidence of benefit. Meta-analyses conducted across all the LTCs provided no evidence that unfacilitated EW had any effect on depression at short term (n= 1,563, SMD -0.06, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.17, substantial heterogeneity), or long term (n= 778, SMD-0.04 95% CI -0.18 to 0.10, little heterogeneity) follow up, or on anxiety, physiological or biomarker-based outcomes. One study reported costs, none reported cost-effectiveness, twelve reported resource use; meta-analysis suggested reduced medication use but no impact on health centre visits. Estimated costs of intervention were low, but there was insufficient evidence to judge cost-effectiveness. Realist review findings suggested that facilitated TW is a complex intervention and group interaction contributes to the perception of benefit. It was unclear from the available data who might benefit most from facilitated TW. Limitations Difficulties with developing realist review programme theory meant that mechanisms operating during TW remain obscure. Conclusions Overall there is little evidence to support the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of unfacilitated expressive writing interventions in people with LTCs. Further research focussed on facilitated TW in people with LTCs could be informative.

Economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in Ireland, 2007-2015

Introduction The concept of this thesis was driven by stagnation within the Irish healthcare system. Multiple reports from pharmacy organisations had outlined possible future directions for the profession but progress was minimal, especially in comparison with other countries. The author’s directive was to evaluate the economic impact of a series of clinical pharmacy services (CPS) in hospital and community settings. Methods A systematic review of economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in hospital patients was undertaken to gain insight into recent research in the field. Eligible studies were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS), to establish the quality, consistency and transparency of relevant research. A retrospective analysis of an internal hospital pharmacy interventions database was conducted. A method first described by Nesbit et al. was implemented to estimate the level of cost avoidance achieved. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from a randomised controlled trial of a pharmacist-supervised patient self-testing (PST) of warfarin therapy is presented. Outcome measure was the incremental cost associated with six months of intervention management. A similar cost-effectiveness analysis based on previously published RCT data was used to evaluate a novel structured pharmacist review of medication in older hospitalised patients. Cost-effectiveness analysis was presented in the form of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). An ICER is an additional cost per unit effect, in the case of this study, the cost of preventing an additional non-trivial ADR in hospital. A method described by Preaud et al. was adapted to estimate the clinical and economic benefit gained from vaccination of patients by a community pharmacist in Ireland in 2013/14. Sample demographic data was obtained from a national chain of community pharmacies and applied to overall national vaccination data. Results Systematic review identified twenty studies which were eligible for inclusion. Overall, pharmacist interventions had a positive impact on hospital budgets. Only three studies (15%) were deemed to be “good-quality” studies. No ‘novel’ clinical pharmacist intervention was identified during the course of this review. Analysis of internal hospital database identified 4,257 interventions documented on 2,147 individual patients over a 12 month period. Substantial cost avoidance of €710,000 was generated over a 1 year period from the perspective of the health care provider. Mean cost avoidance of €166 per intervention was generated. The cost of providing these interventions was €82,000. Substantial net cost-benefits of €626,279 and a cost-benefit ratio of 8.64 : 1 were generated based on this evaluation of pharmacist interventions. Results from an evaluation of a novel pharmacist-led form of warfarin management indicated indicated that on a per patient basis, PST was slightly more expensive than established anticoagulant management. On a per patient basis over a six month period, PST resulted in an incremental cost of €59.08 in comparison with routine care. Overall cost of managing a patient through pharmacist-supervised PST for a six month period is €226.45. However, for this increase in cost a clinically significant improvement in care was provided. Patients achieved a significantly higher time in therapeutic range during the PST arm in comparison with routine care, (72 ± 19.7% vs 59 ± 13.5%). Difference in overall cost was minimal and PST was the dominant strategy in some scenarios examined during sensitivity analysis. Structured pharmacist review of medication was determined to be dominant in comparison to usual pharmaceutical care. Even if the healthcare payer was unwilling to pay any money for the prevention of an ADR, the intervention strategy is still likely to be cost-effective (probability of being determined cost-effective = 0.707). Implementation of pharmacist-led influenza vaccination has resulted in substantial clinical and economic benefits to the healthcare system. The majority of patients (64.9%) who availed of this service had identifiable influenza-related risk factors. Of patients with influenza-related risk factors, age ≥65 year was the most commonly cited risk factor. Pharmacist vaccination services averted a total of 848 influenza cases across all age groups during the 2013/2014 influenza season. Due to receipt of vaccination in a pharmacy setting, 444 influenza-related GP visits were prevented. In terms of more serious influenza-associated events, 11 hospitalisations and five influenza-related deaths were averted. Costs averted were approximately €305,000. These were principally wider societal-related costs associated with lost productivity. Conclusion Overall, clinical pharmacy services are adding value to the Irish healthcare system in both hospital and community settings, but provision of additional funding for new services would enable them to offer a great deal more.

Model of Small Holders Dairy Cattle Waste Pollution at Several Natural Physical and Economic Social Conditions: A Case Study in the Province of Central Java

Most of dairy farmings in Indonesia are managed in the forms of smallholder farmings that give more attention to productivity rather than ecological concerns. The purpose of this study was to make models of dairy cattle animal waste pollution on clean water quality and degree of smell at several regions with different natural physical and economic social conditions. This study also investigated the waste management that match with the characteristics, behavior, and the attitude of the farmers in each region.  System approach was used as the method of this study through model simulation with program of Powersim 2.5c. Model compiled based on to component situation of livestock, condition of environment and situation of farmer. Determination of regional sample of sub-province or town until chosen countryside conducted with multistage sampling without randomization (purposive sampling).  Based on the result of research can be concluded that (1) low natural physical region and low economic social condition to have endangering pollution level of environment, (2) the waste management for the region with high natural physical and high economic social of bio gas and composting accompanied by removing to excess of animal waste for regional with low natural physical and low economic social. (Animal Production 6(2): 68-75 (2004) Key Words: model, dairy  cattle, waste pollution

Adherence to medicines in the older-aged with chronic conditions : does an intervention concerning adherence by an allied health professional help?

Adherence to medicines is a major determinant of the effectiveness of medicines. However, estimates of non-adherence in the older-aged with chronic conditions vary from 40 to 75%. The problems caused by non-adherence in the older-aged include residential care and hospital admissions, progression of the disease, and increased costs to society. The reasons for non-adherence in the older-aged include items related to the medicine (e.g. cost, number of medicines, adverse effects) and those related to person (e.g. cognition, vision, depression). It is also known that there are many ways adherence can be increased (e.g. use of blister packs, cues). It is assumed that interventions by allied health professions, including a discussion of adherence, will improve adherence to medicines in the older aged but the evidence for this has not been reviewed. There is some evidence that telephone counselling about adherence by a nurse or pharmacist does improve adherence, short- and long-term. However, face-to-face intervention counselling at the pharmacy, or during a home visit by a pharmacist, has shown variable results with some studies showing improved adherence and some not. Education programs during hospital stays have not been shown to improve adherence on discharge, but education programs for subjects with hypertension have been shown to improve adherence. In combination with an education program, both counselling and a medicine review program have been shown to improve adherence short-term in the older-aged. Thus, there are many unanswered questions about the most effective interventions to promote adherence. More studies are needed to determine the most appropriate interventions by allied health professions, and these need to consider the disease state, demographics, and socio-economic status of the older-aged subject, and the intensity and duration of intervention needed.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

Combining influence maps and cellular automata for reactive game agents

Agents make up an important part of game worlds, ranging from the characters and monsters that live in the world to the armies that the player controls. Despite their importance, agents in current games rarely display an awareness of their environment or react appropriately, which severely detracts from the believability of the game. Some games have included agents with a basic awareness of other agents, but they are still unaware of important game events or environmental conditions. This paper presents an agent design we have developed, which combines cellular automata for environmental modeling with influence maps for agent decision-making. The agents were implemented into a 3D game environment we have developed, the EmerGEnT system, and tuned through three experiments. The result is simple, flexible game agents that are able to respond to natural phenomena (e.g. rain or fire), while pursuing a goal.