Regression with input-dependent noise: A Gaussian process treatment

Gaussian processes provide natural non-parametric prior distributions over regression functions. In this paper we consider regression problems where there is noise on the output, and the variance of the noise depends on the inputs. If we assume that the noise is a smooth function of the inputs, then it is natural to model the noise variance using a second Gaussian process, in addition to the Gaussian process governing the noise-free output value. We show that prior uncertainty about the parameters controlling both processes can be handled and that the posterior distribution of the noise rate can be sampled from using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results on a synthetic data set give a posterior noise variance that well-approximates the true variance.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

DEA-R:ratio-based comparative efficiency model, its mathematical relation to DEA and its use in applications

We propose a new mathematical model for efficiency analysis, which combines DEA methodology with an old idea-Ratio Analysis. Our model, called DEA-R, treats all possible ratios "output/input" as outputs within the standard DEA model. Although DEA and DEA-R generate different summary measures for efficiency, the two measures are comparable. Our mathematical and empirical comparisons establish the validity of DEA-R model in its own right. The key advantage of DEA-R over DEA is that it allows effective integration of the model with experts' opinions via flexible restrictive conditions on individual "output/input" pairs. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

A new fuzzy additive model for determining the common set of weights in Data Envelopment Analysis

The main advantage of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is that it does not require any priori weights for inputs and outputs and allows individual DMUs to evaluate their efficiencies with the input and output weights that are only most favorable weights for calculating their efficiency. It can be argued that if DMUs are experiencing similar circumstances, then the pricing of inputs and outputs should apply uniformly across all DMUs. That is using of different weights for DMUs makes their efficiencies unable to be compared and not possible to rank them on the same basis. This is a significant drawback of DEA; however literature observed many solutions including the use of common set of weights (CSW). Besides, the conventional DEA methods require accurate measurement of both the inputs and outputs; however, crisp input and output data may not relevant be available in real world applications. This paper develops a new model for the calculation of CSW in fuzzy environments using fuzzy DEA. Further, a numerical example is used to show the validity and efficacy of the proposed model and to compare the results with previous models available in the literature.

An integer-valued data envelopment analysis model with bounded outputs

Integer-valued data envelopment analysis (DEA) with alternative returns to scale technology has been introduced and developed recently by Kuosmanen and Kazemi Matin. The proportionality assumption of their introduced "natural augmentability" axiom in constant and nondecreasing returns to scale technologies makes it possible to achieve feasible decision-making units (DMUs) of arbitrary large size. In many real world applications it is not possible to achieve such production plans since some of the input and output variables are bounded above. In this paper, we extend the axiomatic foundation of integer-valuedDEAmodels for including bounded output variables. Some model variants are achieved by introducing a new axiom of "boundedness" over the selected output variables. A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation is also introduced for computing efficiency scores in the associated production set. © 2011 The Authors. International Transactions in Operational Research © 2011 International Federation of Operational Research Societies.

A framework for assessing business-incubation input, process and output performance:proceedings of the RENT XXVII Conference, 20-22 November 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania

With business incubators deemed as a potent infrastructural element for entrepreneurship development, business incubation management practice and performance have received widespread attention. However, despite this surge of interest, scholars have questioned the extent to which business incubation delivers added value. Thus, there is a growing awareness among researchers, practitioners and policy makers of the need for more rigorous evaluation of the business incubation output performance. Aligned to this is an increasing demand for benchmarking business incubation input/process performance and highlighting best practice. This paper offers a business incubation assessment framework, which considers input/process and output performance domains with relevant indicators. This tool adds value on different levels. It has been developed in collaboration with practitioners and industry experts and therefore it would be relevant and useful to business incubation managers. Once a large enough database of completed questionnaires has been populated on an online platform managed by a coordinating mechanism, such as a business incubation membership association, business incubator managers can reflect on their practices by using this assessment framework to learn their relative position vis-à-vis their peers against each domain. This will enable them to align with best practice in this field. Beyond implications for business incubation management practice, this performance assessment framework would also be useful to researchers and policy makers concerned with business incubation management practice and impact. Future large-scale research could test for construct validity and reliability. Also, discriminant analysis could help link input and process indicators with output measures.

Optimal design for correlated processes with input-dependent noise

Optimal design for parameter estimation in Gaussian process regression models with input-dependent noise is examined. The motivation stems from the area of computer experiments, where computationally demanding simulators are approximated using Gaussian process emulators to act as statistical surrogates. In the case of stochastic simulators, which produce a random output for a given set of model inputs, repeated evaluations are useful, supporting the use of replicate observations in the experimental design. The findings are also applicable to the wider context of experimental design for Gaussian process regression and kriging. Designs are proposed with the aim of minimising the variance of the Gaussian process parameter estimates. A heteroscedastic Gaussian process model is presented which allows for an experimental design technique based on an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic models. It is empirically shown that the error of the approximation of the parameter variance by the inverse of the Fisher information is reduced as the number of replicated points is increased. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic data and a systems biology stochastic simulator, optimal designs with replicate observations are shown to outperform space-filling designs both with and without replicate observations. Guidance is provided on best practice for optimal experimental design for stochastic response models. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved Hybrid Model of HMM/GMM for Speech Recognition

In this paper, we propose a speech recognition engine using hybrid model of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Both the models have been trained independently and the respective likelihood values have been considered jointly and input to a decision logic which provides net likelihood as the output. This hybrid model has been compared with the HMM model. Training and testing has been done by using a database of 20 Hindi words spoken by 80 different speakers. Recognition rates achieved by normal HMM are 83.5% and it gets increased to 85% by using the hybrid approach of HMM and GMM.

Assessing the effectiveness of two-year banking and insurance technology programs of junior colleges in Taiwan, R.O.C.: An application of the Context Input Process Product (CIPP) evaluation model

The purpose of this descriptive study was to evaluate the banking and insurance technology curriculum at ten junior colleges in Taiwan. The study focused on curriculum, curriculum materials, instruction, support services, student achievement and job performance. Data was collected from a diverse sample of faculty, students, alumni, and employers. ^ Questionnaires on the evaluation of curriculum at technical junior colleges were developed for use in this specific case. Data were collected from the sample described above and analyzed utilizing ANOVA, T-Tests and crosstabulations. Findings are presented which indicate that there is room for improvement in terms of meeting individual students' needs. ^ Using Stufflebeam's CIPP model for curriculum evaluation it was determined that the curriculum was adequate in terms of the knowledge and skills imparted to students. However, students were dissatisfied with the rigidity of the curriculum and the lack of opportunity to satisfy the individual needs of students. Employers were satisfied with both the academic preparation of students and their on the job performance. ^ In sum, the curriculum of the two-year banking and insurance technology programs of junior college in Taiwan was shown to have served adequately preparing a work force to enter businesses. It is now time to look toward the future and adapt the curriculum and instruction for the future needs of the ever evolving high-tech society. ^

A software tool that generates symbolic model verifier (SMV) input language from a predicate transition net

The purpose of this research was to apply model checking by using a symbolic model checker on Predicate Transition Nets (PrT Nets). A PrT Net is a formal model of information flow which allows system properties to be modeled and analyzed. The aim of this thesis was to use the modeling and analysis power of PrT nets to provide a mechanism for the system model to be verified. Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV) was the model checker chosen in this thesis, and in order to verify the PrT net model of a system, it was translated to SMV input language. A software tool was implemented which translates the PrT Net into SMV language, hence enabling the process of model checking. The system includes two parts: the PrT net editor where the representation of a system can be edited, and the translator which converts the PrT net into an SMV program.

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Based Air Interfaces and Multiple Input Multiple Output Techniques in Cooperative Satellite Communications for 4th Generation Mobile Systems

Recently, wireless network technology has grown at such a pace that scientific research has become a practical reality in a very short time span. One mobile system that features high data rates and open network architecture is 4G. Currently, the research community and industry, in the field of wireless networks, are working on possible choices for solutions in the 4G system. The researcher considers one of the most important characteristics of future 4G mobile systems the ability to guarantee reliable communications at high data rates, in addition to high efficiency in the spectrum usage. On mobile wireless communication networks, one important factor is the coverage of large geographical areas. In 4G systems, a hybrid satellite/terrestrial network is crucial to providing users with coverage wherever needed. Subscribers thus require a reliable satellite link to access their services when they are in remote locations where a terrestrial infrastructure is unavailable. The results show that good modulation and access technique are also required in order to transmit high data rates over satellite links to mobile users. The dissertation proposes the use of OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Multiple Access) for the satellite link by increasing the time diversity. This technique will allow for an increase of the data rate, as primarily required by multimedia applications, and will also optimally use the available bandwidth. In addition, this dissertation approaches the use of Cooperative Satellite Communications for hybrid satellite/terrestrial networks. By using this technique, the satellite coverage can be extended to areas where there is no direct link to the satellite. The issue of Cooperative Satellite Communications is solved through a new algorithm that forwards the received data from the fixed node to the mobile node. This algorithm is very efficient because it does not allow unnecessary transmissions and is based on signal to noise ratio (SNR) measures.

The Hurst exponent as an indicator of the behaviour of a model monopile in an ocean wave testing basin

With the importance of renewable energy well-established worldwide, and targets of such energy quantified in many cases, there exists a considerable interest in the assessment of wind and wave devices. While the individual components of these devices are often relatively well understood and the aspects of energy generation well researched, there seems to be a gap in the understanding of these devices as a whole and especially in the field of their dynamic responses under operational conditions. The mathematical modelling and estimation of their dynamic responses are more evolved but research directed towards testing of these devices still requires significant attention. Model-free indicators of the dynamic responses of these devices are important since it reflects the as-deployed behaviour of the devices when the exposure conditions are scaled reasonably correctly, along with the structural dimensions. This paper demonstrates how the Hurst exponent of the dynamic responses of a monopile exposed to different exposure conditions in an ocean wave basin can be used as a model-free indicator of various responses. The scaled model is exposed to Froude scaled waves and tested under different exposure conditions. The analysis and interpretation is carried out in a model-free and output-only environment, with only some preliminary ideas regarding the input of the system. The analysis indicates how the Hurst exponent can be an interesting descriptor to compare and contrast various scenarios of dynamic response conditions.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

Investigating output accuracy for a discrete event simulation model and an agent based simulation model

In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store’s fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.