Some last thoughts on compositional data analysis

One of the disadvantages of old age is that there is more past than future: this, however, may be turned into an advantage if the wealth of experience and, hopefully, wisdom gained in the past can be reflected upon and throw some light on possible future trends. To an extent, then, this talk is necessarily personal, certainly nostalgic, but also self critical and inquisitive about our understanding of the discipline of statistics. A number of almost philosophical themes will run through the talk: search for appropriate modelling in relation to the real problem envisaged, emphasis on sensible balances between simplicity and complexity, the relative roles of theory and practice, the nature of communication of inferential ideas to the statistical layman, the inter-related roles of teaching, consultation and research. A list of keywords might be: identification of sample space and its mathematical structure, choices between transform and stay, the role of parametric modelling, the role of a sample space metric, the underused hypothesis lattice, the nature of compositional change, particularly in relation to the modelling of processes. While the main theme will be relevance to compositional data analysis we shall point to substantial implications for general multivariate analysis arising from experience of the development of compositional data analysis…

Applying the Lessons of “Lean Now” to Transform the US Aerospace Enterprise

Lean is common sense and good business sense. As organizations grow and become more successful, they begin to lose insight into the basic truths of what made them successful. Organizations have to deal with more and more issues that may not have anything to do with directly providing products or services to their customers. Lean is a holistic management approach that brings the focus of the organization back to providing value to the customer. In August 2002, Mrs. Darleen Druyun, the Principal Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition and government co-chairperson of the Lean Aerospace Initiative (LAI), decided it was time for Air Force acquisitions to embrace the concepts of lean. At her request, the LAI Executive Board developed a concept and methodology to employ lean into the Air Force’s acquisition culture and processes. This was the birth of the “Lean Now” initiative. An enterprise-wide approach was used, involving Air Force System Program Offices (SPOs), aerospace industry, and several Department of Defense agencies. The aim of Lean Now was to focus on the process interfaces between these “enterprise” stakeholders to eliminate barriers that impede progress. Any best practices developed would be institutionalized throughout the Air Force and the Department of Defense (DoD). The industry members of LAI agreed to help accelerate the government-industry transformation by donating lean Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to mentor, train, and facilitate the lean events of each enterprise. Currently, the industry SMEs and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are working together to help the Air Force develop its own lean infrastructure of training courses and Air Force lean SMEs. The first Lean Now programs were the F/A-22, Global Hawk, and F-16. Each program focused on specific acquisition processes. The F/A-22 focused on the Test and Evaluation process; the Global Hawk focused on Evolutionary Acquisitions; and the F-16 focused on improving the Contract Closeout process. Through lean, each enterprise made many significant improvements. The F/A-22 was able to reduce its Operational Flight Plan (OFP) Preparation and Load process time of 2 to 3 months down to 7 hours. The Global Hawk developed a new production plan that increases the annual production of its Integrated Sensor Suite from 3 per year to 6 per year. The F-16 enterprise generated and is working 12 initiatives that could result in a contract closeout cycle time reduction of 3 to 7 years. Each enterprise continues to generate more lean initiatives that focus on other areas and processes within their respective enterprises.

SPSS Statistics Coach - An animated guide

What test for your data? SPSS Statistics Coach can help

Intro Statistics for MSc Students

Exercises and solutions for an introductory statistics course for MSc students. Diagrams for the questions are all together in the support.zip file, as .eps files

Useful academic references for data mining and usage statistics

Relates to the following software for analysing Blackboard stats http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/11134/ Is supporting material for the following podcast: http://youtu.be/yHxCzjiYBoU

Dice and data : a comic about statistics with a 95 percent chance of being one. 'Dados y datos : cómic hacia la estadística con probabilidad 0,95 de serlo'.

Resumen tomado parcialmente de la propia publicación

Análisis de la competitividad del sub sector lechero de los pequeños y medianos productores frente al TLC con la Unión Europea

A través de los años y en busca de ser partícipes del fenómeno de la globalización y de la integración económica entre países, Colombia ha buscado establecer acuerdos comerciales estratégicamente adecuados para transformar la economía interna, expandirse a nivel internacional e intercambiar productos en los que no se es especializado. Ante esto, Colombia firmó el Tratado de Libre Comercio con la Unión Europea en Junio del 2012, que entró en vigencia en Agosto del 2013, y hasta el momento la situación del sector lechero ha sido crítica, pues carece del nivel de competitividad suficiente para garantizar la perdurabilidad de los pequeños y medianos productores de leche. El diagnóstico del sector lechero colombiano permite tener una visión más clara sobre las principales características de los sistemas de producción del país, es aquí donde se conocen las falencias que se presentan en el sector, pues la productividad es baja, los costos de producción son altos y los precios tienen una tendencia al alza, colocando a los productos nacionales en desventaja frente a la gran oferta internacional que invade el mercado interno con precios reducidos y con mejor calidad. Además, se identifica también que gran parte de los productores de leche son informales y por lo tanto es difícil consolidar la información referente al sector y convertirla en conocimiento para efectuar planes de cambio y transformación para mejorar la situación. Del lado contrario y actuando como principal competidor en este caso de estudio, se encuentra la Unión Europea. Su diagnóstico ubica esta zona geográfica en una posición indudablemente privilegiada: precios bajos, mejor calidad, alta productividad, entre otras características que hacen de la UE una verdadera amenaza para los pequeños y medianos productores colombianos. La sobreproducción que se presencia en esta asociación económica y política crea la necesidad de explorar otros mercados para poner a disposición dicha producción, y el Tratado de Libre Comercio con Colombia es una opción para compensar esa oferta con una demanda insatisfecha. Con el fin de conocer profundamente las implicaciones del TLC con la Unión Europea y cómo afecta este acuerdo a los pequeños y medianos productores de leche en Colombia, fue necesario abordar algunos puntos clave en la negociación establecida y a partir de estos determinar si este tratado es realmente una oportunidad para el campesino informal que se dedica a la producción de leche para el autoconsumo y/o la comercialización en veredas y pueblos, o por el contrario, es una plataforma que afecta negativamente a las 450 mil familias que viven de este oficio y que no tienen los niveles de competitividad exigidos para enfrentar una competencia extranjera tan fuerte como lo es la Unión Europea. Por último, el análisis DOFA permite crear estrategias coherentes y viables relacionando las fortalezas y debilidades de Colombia con las oportunidades y amenazas que implica tener un acuerdo de libre comercio con la Unión Europea. Estas estrategias contribuyen a mejorar la competitividad del sector en busca de garantizar una mayor perdurabilidad de los pequeños y medianos productores de leche, y de esta manera se logrará no sólo aprovechar este acuerdo comercial, si no también conquistar otros mercados internacionales con un producto de mejor calidad.

Admissible statistics of educational test scores. 'Estadisticas admisibles de puntuaciones en test educativos'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

An audiovisual material for the teaching of the statistics. 'Un material audiovisual didáctico para la enseñanza de la estadística'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods: We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued