Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant roots by mycorrhizal fungi. Here we quantify the global patterns of these relationships. Location Global. Methods Data on plant root colonization intensities by the two dominant types of mycorrhizal fungi world-wide, arbuscular (4887 plant species in 233 sites) and ectomycorrhizal fungi (125 plant species in 92 sites), were compiled from published studies. Data for climatic and soil factors were extracted from global datasets. For a given mycorrhizal type, we calculated at each site the mean root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi across all potentially mycorrhizal plant species found at the site, and subjected these data to generalized additive model regression analysis with environmental factors as predictor variables. Results We show for the first time that at the global scale the intensity of plant root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi strongly relates to warm-season temperature, frost periods and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and is highest at sites featuring continental climates with mild summers and a high availability of soil nitrogen. In contrast, the intensity of ectomycorrhizal infection in plant roots is related to soil acidity, soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and seasonality of precipitation, and is highest at sites with acidic soils and relatively constant precipitation levels. Main conclusions We provide the first quantitative global maps of intensity of mycorrhizal colonization based on environmental drivers, and suggest that environmental changes will affect distinct types of mycorrhizae differently. Future analyses of the potential effects of environmental change on global carbon and nutrient cycling via mycorrhizal pathways will need to take into account the relationships discovered in this study.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Low-temperature-induced changes in trehalose, mannitol and arabitol associated with enhanced tolerance to freezing in ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes ( Hebeloma spp.)

Ectomycorrhizal fungi have been shown to survive sub-zero temperatures in axenic culture and in the field. However, the physiological basis for resistance to freezing is poorly understood. In order to survive freezing, mycelia must synthesise compounds that pro-tect the cells from frost damage, and certain fungal-spe-cific soluble carbohydrates have been implicated in this role. Tissue concentrations of arabitol, mannitol and trehalose were measured in axenic cultures of eight Hebeloma strains of arctic and temperate origin grown at 22, 12, 6 and 2°C. In a separate experiment, mycelia were frozen to –5°C after pre-conditioning at either 2°C or 22°C. For some, especially temperate strains, there was a clear increase in specific soluble carbohydrates at lower growth temperatures. Trehalose and mannitol were present in all strains and the highest concentrations (close to 2.5% and 0.5% dry wt.) were recorded only after a cold period. Arabitol was found in four strains only when grown at low temperature. Cold pre-condi-tioning enhanced recovery of mycelia following freez-ing. In four out of eight strains, this was paralleled by increases in mannitol and trehalose concentration at low temperature that presumably contribute towards cryopro-tection. The results are discussed in an ecological con-text with regard to mycelial overwintering in soil.

Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008

Temperature is a key variable for monitoring global climate change. Here we perform a trend analysis of Swiss temperatures from 1959 to 2008, using a new 2 × 2 km gridded data-set based on carefully homogenised ground observations from MeteoSwiss. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to discuss the spatial and altitudinal temperature trend characteristics in detail, and second, to quantify the contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation and local effects to these trends. The seasonal trends are all positive and mostly significant with an annual average warming rate of 0.35 °C/decade (∼1.6 times the northern hemispheric warming rate), ranging from 0.17 in autumn to 0.48 °C/decade in summer. Altitude-dependent trends are found in autumn and early winter where the trends are stronger at low altitudes (<800 m asl), and in spring where slightly stronger trends are found at altitudes close to the snow line. Part of the trends can be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation, but with substantial differences from season to season. In winter, circulation effects account for more than half the trends, while this contribution is much smaller in other seasons. After removing the effect of circulation, the trends still show seasonal variations with higher values in spring and summer. The circulation-corrected trends are closer to the values simulated by a set of ENSEMBLES regional climate models, with the models still tending towards a trend underestimation in spring and summer. Our results suggest that both circulation changes and more local effects are important to explain part of recent warming in spring, summer, and autumn. Snow-albedo feedback effects could be responsible for the stronger spring trends at altitudes close to the snow line, but the overall effect is small. In autumn, the observed decrease in fog frequency might be a key process in explaining the stronger temperature trends at low altitudes.

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.

Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection

Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the 21st century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter, and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future monthly variability changes in the 17 member ensemble ESSENCE are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases while in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the northern hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and mid northern latitudes in summer.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

Sampling uncertainty in gridded sea surface temperature products and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) data

Sea surface temperature (SST) data are often provided as gridded products, typically at resolutions of order 0.05 degrees from satellite observations to reduce data volume at the request of data users and facilitate comparison against other products or models. Sampling uncertainty is introduced in gridded products where the full surface area of the ocean within a grid cell cannot be fully observed because of cloud cover. In this paper we parameterise uncertainties in SST as a function of the percentage of clear-sky pixels available and the SST variability in that subsample. This parameterisation is developed from Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) data, but is applicable to all gridded L3U SST products at resolutions of 0.05-0.1 degrees, irrespective of instrument and retrieval algorithm, provided that instrument noise propagated into the SST is accounted for. We also calculate the sampling uncertainty of ~0.04 K in Global Area Coverage (GAC) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) products, using related methods.

Changes in the temperature of a dental light-cured composite resin by different light-curing units

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the temperature increase during the polymerization process through the use of three different light-curing units with different irradiation times. One argon laser (Innova, Coherent), one halogen (Optilight 501, Demetron), and one blue LED (LEC 1000, MM Optics) LCU with 500 mW/cm(2) during 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 s of irradiation times were used in this study. The composite resin used was a microhybrid Filtek Z-250 (3M/ESPE) at color A(2). The samples were made in a metallic mold 2 mm in thickness and 4 mm in diameter and previously light-cured during 40 s. A thermocouple (Model 120-202 EAJ, Fenwal Electronic, Milford, MA, USA) was introduced in the composite resin to measure the temperature increase during the curing process. The highest temperature increase was recorded with a Curing Light 2500 halogen LCU (5 and 31 degrees C after 5 and 60 s, respectively), while the lowest temperature increase was recorded for the Innova LCU based on an argon laser (2 and 11 degrees C after 5 and 60 s, respectively). The temperature recorded for LCU based on a blue LED was 3 and 22 degrees C after 5 and 60 s, respectively. There was a quantifiable amount of heat generated during the visible light curing of a composite resin. The amount of heat generated was influenced by the characteristics of the light-curing units used and the irradiation times.

Triple Structural Transition below Room Temperature in the Antifilarial Drug Diethylcarbamazine Citrate

A very unusual triple structural transition pattern below room temperature was observed for the antifilarial drug diethylcarbamazine citrate. Besides the first thermal, crystallographic, and vibrational investigations of this first-line drug used in clinical treatment for lymphatic filariasis, a noteworthy behavior with three structural transformations as a function of temperature was demonstrated by differential scanning calorimetry, Raman spectroscopy, and single-crystal X-ray diffractometry. Our X-ray data on single crystals allow for a complete featuring and understanding of all transitions, since the four structures associated with the three solid-solid phase transformations were accurately determined. Two of three structural transitions show an order-disorder mechanism and temperature hysteresis with exothermic peaks at 224 K (T(1)`) and 213 K (T(2)`) upon cooling and endothermic ones at 248 K (T(1)) and 226 K (T(2)) upon heating. The other transition occurs at 108 K (T(3)) and it is temperature-rate sensitive. Molecular displacements onto the (010) plane and conformational changes of the diethylcarbamazine backbone as a consequence of the C-H center dot center dot center dot N hydrogen bonding formation/cleavage between drug molecules explain the mechanism of the transitions at T(1)`/T(2). However, such changes are observed only on alternate columns of the drug intercalated by citrate chains, which leads to a doubling of the lattice period along the a axis of the 235 K structure with respect to the 150 and 293 K structures. At T(2)`/T(1), these structural alterations occur in all columns of the drug. At T(3), there is a rotation on the axis of the N-C bond between the carbamoyl moiety and an ethyl group of one crystallographically independent diethylcarbamazine molecule besides molecular shifts and other conformational alterations. The impact of this study is based on the fascinating finding in which the versatile capability of structural adaptation dependent on the thermal history was observed for a relatively simple organic salt, diethylcarbamazine citrate.

On the interaction of bovine serum albumin with ionic surfactants: Temperature induced EPR changes of a maleimide nitroxide reflect local protein dynamics and probe solvent accessibility

The interaction of bovine serum albumin (BSA) with the ionic surfactants sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS, anionic), cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC, cationic) and N-hexadecyl-N,N-dimethyl-3-ammonio-1-propanesulfonate (HPS, zwitterionic) was studied by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy of spin label covalently bound to the single free thiol group of the protein. EPR spectra simulation allows to monitor the protein dynamics at the labeling site and to estimate the changes in standard Gibbs free energy, enthalpy and entropy for transferring the nitroxide side chain from the more motionally restricted to the less restricted component. Whereas SDS and CTAC showed similar increases in the dynamics of the protein backbone for all measured concentrations. HPS presented a smaller effect at concentrations above 1.5 mM. At 10 mM of surfactants and 0.15 mM BSA, the standard Gibbs free energy change was consistent with protein backbone conformations more expanded and exposed to the solvent as compared to the native protein, but with a less pronounced effect for HPS. In the presence of the surfactants, the enthalpy change, related to the energy required to dissociate the nitroxide side chain from the protein, was greater, suggesting a lower water activity. The nitroxide side chain also detected a higher viscosity environment in the vicinity of the paramagnetic probe induced by the addition of the surfactants. The results suggest that the surfactant-BSA interaction, at higher surfactant concentration, is affected by the affinities of the surfactant to its own micelles and micelle-like aggregates. Complementary DLS data suggests that the temperature induced changes monitored by the nitroxide probe reflects local changes in the vicinity of the single thiol group of Cys-34 BSA residue. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the interaction of bovine serum albumin with ionic surfactants: Temperature induced EPR changes of a maleimide nitroxide reflect local protein dynamics and probe solvent accessibility

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Changes on emitter discharge under different water temperature and pressure

The study was conducted at the Research Laboratory of Hydraulic and Irrigation Group in the Rural Engineering Department, Technical University of Madrid (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), Madrid, Spain. Water temperatures of 20, 30, 40 degrees C and system pressures often encountered in irrigation practices of 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 and 200 k Pa were applied to determine the effects of different water temperatures and pressures on emitter discharge. Non-pressure compensating in-line emitter which has turbulent flow regime with a long-path (labyrinth), emitter discharge was 4 L h(-1) at system pressure of 100 kPa according to the manufacturer recommended, was used. Emitters were spaced 20 cm along the drip laterals with 16 mm diameter. Discharge equations and coefficients of variation related to temperatures of 20, 30 and 40 degrees C were obtained as q = 0.375H(0.51), q = 0.358H(0.52), q = 0.346H(0.53) and 2.68, 2.09, 3.65, respectively. Discharge of the emitter was affected by different system pressures and increased as potentially (R = 0993-0996). In general. the emitter discharge increased with increasing temperature. However, especially in the common system pressures of 90-120 k Pa, differences of obtained emitter discharges between the different water temperatures were not significant (1%).