Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Mangrove sedimentary characteristics and implications for crab Ucides cordatus (Crustacea, Decapoda, Ucididae) distribution in an estuarine area of the Amazonian region

At the coastal zone sediments, water and organisms interact intensely. At equatorial tidal-dominated coast mangroves are abundant. These areas are well-known for their ecological importance. Considering the mangroves of Atlantic South America, the mangrove crab, Ucides cordatus has ecological and economic prominence. High densities of this crab are found on the Amazon coast. This study investigates the sediment distribution of the Bragança mangrove area (Amazon coast, Brazil) and its correlations with vegetation and mangrove crab distribution. Sediments of 47 sites, as well as crabs from sites with different sediment and vegetation, were sampled. Results show that surface sediment of the area is mainly composed by silt (59%), with 21% sand and 20% clay. Variations in sorting and skewness are the product of local variations in clay and sand content. The vegetation type was significantly correlated to mangrove crab characteristics, abundance and weight/size. Sediment characteristics are also substantially different according to the vegetation type. Areas where Avicennia germinans prevails have more sand and clay than areas of Rizophora mangle, in which silt is dominant and crabs were significantly heavier. The present results have showed that the distribution of sediments, crabs and vegetation at mangrove areas are strongly correlated. Thus, they should be studied in conjunction.

The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

Litterfall production in intact and selectively logged forests in southern of Amazonia as a function of basal area of vegetation and plant density

Nutrient recycling in the forest is linked to the production and decomposition of litter, which are essential processes for forest maintenance, especially in regions of nutritionally poor soils. Human interventions in forest such as selecttive logging may have strong impacts on these processes. The objectives of this study were to estimate litterfall production and evaluate the influence of environmental factors (basal area of vegetation, plant density, canopy cover, and soil physicochemical properties) and anthropogenic factors (post-management age and exploited basal area) on this production, in areas of intact and exploited forest in southern Amazonia, located in the northern parts of Mato Grosso state. This study was conducted at five locations and the average annual production of litterfall was 10.6 Mg ha-1 year-1, higher than the values for the Amazon rainforest. There were differences in litterfall productions between study locations. Effects of historical logging intensity on litterfall production were not significant. Effects of basal area of vegetation and tree density on litterfall production were observed, highlighting the importance of local vegetation characteristics in litterfall production. This study demonstrated areas of transition between the Amazonia-Cerrado tend to have a higher litterfall production than Cerrado and Amazonia regions, and this information is important for a better understanding of the dynamics of nutrient and carbon cycling in these transition regions.

60,000 years of interactions between Central and Eastern Africa documented by major African mitochondrial haplogroup L2

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroup L2 originated in Western Africa but is nowadays spread across the entire continent. L2 movements were previously postulated to be related to the Bantu expansion, but L2 expansions eastwards probably occurred much earlier. By reconstructing the phylogeny of L2 (44 new complete sequences) we provide insights on the complex net of within-African migrations in the last 60 thousand years (ka). Results show that lineages in Southern Africa cluster with Western/Central African lineages at a recent time scale, whereas, eastern lineages seem to be substantially more ancient. Three moments of expansion from a Central African source are associated to L2: (1) one migration at 70-50 ka into Eastern or Southern Africa, (2) postglacial movements (15-10 ka) into Eastern Africa; and (3) the southward Bantu Expansion in the last 5 ka. The complementary population and L0a phylogeography analyses indicate no strong evidence of mtDNA gene flow between eastern and southern populations during the later movement, suggesting low admixture between Eastern African populations and the Bantu migrants. This implies that, at least in the early stages, the Bantu expansion was mainly a demic diffusion with little incorporation of local populations.

Nanocomposites: the contribution of multiscale modelling to improve the dispersion levels

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos

O reforço da democracia local no âmbito da reforma da administração autárquica

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito das Autarquias Locais

Effect of pH on Candida tropicalis virulence factors

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioengenharia

Risco em Saúde e Políticas Sociais:a Intervenção do Serviço Social Local na promoção do Acesso à Saúde.

Dissertação de Mestrado em Sociedade, Risco e Saúde

A penectomia como técnica de controlo reprodutivo da espécie invasora Trachemys scripta em contexto zoológico

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Veterinária

Movilidad social en barrios de Córdoba: Villa La Tela y áreas colindantes. Social Mobility in Neighborhoods of Cordoba: Villa La Tela and Adjacent Areas.

Esta investigación propone aproximarse al conocimiento y comprensión de los diversos mecanismos de movilidad social en Villa La Tela barrios adyacentes (ciudad de Córdoba). Si bien las poblaciones objetivo poseen diferentes niveles de vida, este proyecto no se propone la comparación entre ambos sectores urbanos, sino la identificación de diversos patrones de movilidad social vigentes. Se intenta también aproximarse indirectamente al esquema de estratificación social vigente en la ciudad de Córdoba. El equipo se propone avanzar en la definición de una estrategia metodológica que permita comprender de una manera integral los diversos mecanismos de movilidad social. Se propone articular una triangulación de métodos cuantitativos y cualitativos que aproveche las fortalezas de cada enfoque para efectuar una mirada multidisciplinaria de las condiciones de vida de la población en estudio. Se intenta también aprovechar la inserción que ya tienen algunos de los investigadores del equipo en los barrios, a fin de aportar conocimientos útiles a las organizaciones que realizan actividades de intervención social. El trabajo se propone en tres fases constituidas por tres instancias que no necesariamente se corresponden con tiempos cronológicos: análisis de información secundaria (censos de población, relevamientos de organismos gubernamentales y civiles) y de resultados de investigaciones previas; en otra fase se generará un espacio recreativo en la comunidad que permita identificar las percepciones subjetivas de los actores locales en relación a las condiciones de vida y la experiencia de movilidad social (etnodrama, etnografía fotográfica); finalmente se realizará una fase de trabajo de encuestas y entrevistas en profundidad a partir de los insumos producidos en las dos fases antes mencionadas. Se tomará para ello, como unidad de análisis socio-económica a los hogares, considerados como el espacio físico y social desde el cual se diseñan e implementan las estrategias familiares de vida de sus miembros. Se considera que el proyecto puede transferir los resultados -parciales y finales- alcanzados a las instituciones intervinientes en los barrios considerados. Esta transferencia constituye una actividad de extensión concreta, dado que las intervenciones en marcha están destinadas a mejorar las condiciones de vida de la población en términos materiales y culturales. La acción sinérgica entre las diversas instituciones que intervienen o investigan sobre estas comunidades es un compromiso, ya que de ello depende la calidad del impacto en las propias comunidades. En este sentido, la descripción de las experiencias intergeneracionales de movilidad social de los hogares y su significación subjetiva, puede considerarse de interés tanto para las instituciones como para la comunidad misma. De esta manera se espera devolver a las comunidades lo que éstas le ofrezcan al equipo de investigación, como flujo de intercambio recíproco de conocimiento y desarrollo humano. Desde el punto de vista metodológico, el equipo espera realizar una evaluación de los distintos abordajes cuantitativos y cualitativos a escala microsocial, a fin de realizar propuestas válidas para nuevas investigaciones en ámbitos locales. This research proposes to approach the knowledge and understanding of the various mechanisms of social mobility in adjacent neighborhoods of Villa La Tela (Cordoba, Argentina). Although the target populations have different levels of life, this project does not intend to compare urban areas, but the identification of different patterns of social mobility nowadays. Indirect approach is also intended to outline the existing social stratification in Cordoba city. We plan to define a methodological approach based on triangulation of quantitative and qualitative methods, exploiting the strengths of each approach to make a multidisciplinary vision of the population living conditions. Project proposes phases consisting of three instances, that do not necessarily correspond with chronological time: 1) secondary data analysis (population censuses, surveys of government agencies and civilian organizations) and previous research results; 2) promotion of a recreation space in the community to identify the subjective perceptions of local actors in relation to living conditions and experience of social mobility; 3) finally there will be a phase of survey work and deep interviews from inputs produced in the two phases mentioned above. Households will be taken as socio-economic unit, also considered as social and physical space where family strategies of life are designed and implemented by its members. We considere this project can transfer the obtained results to the institutions involved in the concerned districts. This transfer is a specific outreach activity, since the interventions in place are aimed to improving the living conditions of population in material and cultural terms.

Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

Background:The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe.Objective:To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP).Methods:Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP.Results:Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus.Conclusion:Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

Background:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country.Objective:To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010.Methods:This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA.Results:There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males.Conclusion:The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions.

Macrocheles muscaedomesticae (Acari, Macrochelidae) and a species of Uroseius (Acari, Polyaspididae) phoretic on Musca domestica (Diptera, Muscidae): effects on dispersal and colonization of poultry manure

Differences in the phoresy of the mites Macrocheles muscaedomesticae (Scopoli, 1972) (Macrochelidae) and Uroseius sp. (Polyaspidae) on the house fly, Musca domestica (Linnaeus, 1758) and the similarities in their phoretic dispersal and parasitism are discussed, altogether with the effects on predator-prey interactions. The prevalence and intensity of phoresy in the mite species were significantly related to the attachment site on the hosts. The phoresy of Uroseius sp. was correlated with temperature but not with rainfall and relative humidity. Selective pressure in the environment resulted in displacement and the emergence of local and regional populations. These results suggest that in each habitat the populations will use different resources and will show several relationships with other species, as well as a selection for morphological and behavioral types.

New and significant bird records from Rio Grande do Sul, with comments on biogeography and conservation of the southern Brazilian avifauna

I report on the occurrence of 16 species of birds in Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil, of which seven are new for the state - Accipiter superciliosus (Linnaeus, 1766), Brotogeris tirica (Gmelin, 1788), Hemitriccus margaritaceiventer (d'Orbigny & Lafresnaye, 1837), Phyllomyias griseocapilla Sclater, 1862, Saltator coerulescens Vieillot, 1817, Orthogonys chloricterus (Vieillot, 1819), and Sporophila lineola (Linnaeus, 1758) - and seven were previously known from unsubstantiated or poorly documented records - Ixobrychus exilis (Gmelin, 1789), Brotogeris chiriri (Vieillot, 1818), Coccyzus euleri Cabanis, 1873, Pulsatrix koeniswaldiana (Bertoni & Bertoni, 1901), Psilorhamphus guttatus (Ménétriès, 1835), Serpophaga griseicapilla Straneck, 2007, and Hemithraupis ruficapilla (Vieillot, 1818). Descriptive and natural history notes are presented for some of these species. The records of B. tirica, P. guttatus, P. griseocapilla, Myiozetetes similis (Spix, 1825), O. chloricterus, H. ruficapilla, and S. lineola represent significant southward range extensions of up to 300 km. Also, a new confirmed record of Myiarchus ferox (Statius Muller, 1776) is divulged. Finally, I argue that the Atlantic forests of north-eastern Rio Grande do Sul should be included in the Serra do Mar area of endemism (sensu SILVA et al., 2004) because of the presence of Orthogonys chloricterus, and comment on the possible range expansion of Myiozetetes similis, Sporophila lineola and other primarily tropical species in southern Brazil.